NEWS AND NOTES:
-For our latest UNDER THE RADAR Video Podcast, where we discuss and assess all of the non-major D1 conferences – CLICK HERE
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day, which has major first place implications in the Atlantic Sun – CLICK HERE
-The bad taste of losing back to back games on last second buzzer beaters was probably washed out of Tennessee’s mouths last night as they got a huge win at home against top ranked Alabama 68-59. Defensively they just controlled the game, especially in the second half. I know it was a home game, but it was still an impressive performance and it will help move them back up the seedlist after the last two losses.
-Louisville almost pulled off what may have been the most improbable upset in the history of American Sports. Virginia just barely escaped with a 61-58 win. To put this into perspective, the two teams are further apart in the NET Rankings than any other upset we could ever come up with in the history of either the NET or the RPI. Some will say “Well, it wasn’t as big as the time Chaminade beat Virginia.” I disagree! That Chaminade team was a highly ranked D2 team. Louisville lost an exhibition game to a D2 team with a losing record, and nearly lost another one. This Louisville team probably wouldn’t even qualify for the D2 NCAA Tournament if they were to transition down for a year, so for them to nearly beat Virginia, that may have not just been the biggest upset of the year, or of the decade, or in the history of college basketball, but it may have been the biggest upset in the history of EVERYTHING!!
-Xavier went into Marquette, and after multiple lead changes in the final minute of play Marquette escaped with a 69-68 win. It seems as though the Big East has given us more thrilling games this year than most of the rest of the conferences, and Xavier has been in a fair number of them. As for Marquette, they once again look to be the Big East frontrunners.
-Northwestern sprinted out to a big first half lead and lead by 19 at the half, but Indiana put together a very impressive second half and came all the way back against a really good team, and did it on their floor. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers Northwestern managed to escape and pick up yet another big win after hitting a shot at the buzzer.
-Iowa State and TCU were both in a bit of a tailspin, so it was kind of a big game for both teams when they faced each other last night, and Iowa State got the 70-59 win. After looking as strong as any team in the country for a while, TCU has been plagued with injuries.
-San Diego State really had to sweat on the road at Fresno State, but barely held on in a rock fight 45-43.
-Remember when people were saying Virginia Tech could make the Tournament?? Well…they can’t! They lost at Georgia Tech last night 77-70. They’ve been absolutely pitiful on the road, and this should pretty much cement their place outside the bubble minus a complete turnaround and run to the ACC Championship game.
-Kentucky needed a big win in the most desperate way, and got it at Mississippi State 71-68. Mississippi State had been playing really well, especially at home, so it’s a win that Kentucky should get a fair amount of credit for, and I think it puts them back on the right side of the bubble for now.
-Texas A&M held off Arkansas 62-56, and TAMU continues to win games and continues to look impressive. They are now 11-2 in SEC play, and by now should be inside most people’s bubbles. As for Arkansas, they continue to hover around the bubble and are right on the cut line. Both teams still have work to do between now and the end, but at least TAMU appears to be doing said work.
-Oregon, who is a team that we thought had been playing well and were starting to keep an eye on, gave us a reason to take their eyes back off of them. They fell on the road to Washington 72-71 in a game they really could not afford to lose.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-PURDUE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). This will be a tough road test for Purdue, but if they feel they belong on the #1 line then this is the kind of road game they should be able to win. Maryland is probably safely inside the bubble, but I personally think their resume is a little flimsy and that a win like this could really help them out. They are 13-1 at home, but none of their wins have been as good as this one would end up being.
-HOUSTON AT SMU (American). Should be yet another routine road win for the Cougars, who have a pretty wide path to a #1 seed.
-FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA). This could be a bit of a trap game for FAU, but they’ve managed to get it done on in most of their road tests so far. If they win out through the regular season, which they are good enough to do, they should go into the NCAA Tournament field on the first ballot.
-CHARLESTON AT ELON (Colonial). If Charleston wins out, they will get a serious look from the selection committee if they don’t win their conference tournament. The problem is that Hofstra will own the tiebreaker, so CofC will not be an outright first place team.
-UCF AT MEMPHIS (American). Memphis is squarely on the bubble and absolutely needs to hold serve in all their remaining games when they’re not playing Houston. UCF can play at a high level, so Memphis needs to be on upset alert tonight.
-COLORADO AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac 12). Arizona State needs to string together a lot of wins down the stretch just to make it into the field. Right now we have them on the outside looking in.
-SAINT MARY’S AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). SMC is very far inside the bubble and should end up on no worse than the #5 line if they hold serve the rest of the way and don’t lose to anyone other than Gonzaga (whom they have already beaten once).
-OHIO STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten). Iowa appears to be in good shape as far as a bid goes and will remain that way so long as they don’t tank out down the stretch. For now, the rest of the regular season is just about maintaining and improving their spot on the seedlist.
-UTAH AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). Utah has some decent stuff on their resume, but they’ll need a win like this in order to really get the committee’s attention. They did win the first meeting between these two, but that was at home. Winning on the road is a completely different deal.
-CALIFORNIA AT USC (Pac 12). USC is squarely on the bubble. If they lose at home to a Cal team that is worse than most of the opponents teams typically face in home buy games, they will likely get knocked way off the bubble.
-STANFORD AT UCLA (Pac 12). I think UCLA is looking like the best team in the Pac 12 right now, and they perhaps even have a shot at ending up as a #1 seed if they’re able to win out. They should hold serve at home tonight against a Stanford team that did beat Arizona in their last game, but has done pretty much nothing else all season long.
-GONZAGA AT LMU (West Coast). This one could be a tough one since it’s on the road, and since LMU has managed wins against both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s already this year. They will be way up for this one, but I have a feeling the Zags will as well. Gonzaga still has a really good chance at ending up as a protected seed if they can win out, which they are good enough to do.
UNDER THE RADAR/SURVIVAL BOARD WATCH…
-To see the SURVIVAL BOARD, which was just recently updated last night – CLICK HERE
-FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON AT SACRED HEART (Northeast Conference). FDU is tied with Stonehill and Merrimack in the NEC standings, but neither of those two teams are eligible for the NCAA Tournament (although they can play in the NEC Conference Tourney). With just four games to go, FDU has a two game lead over Sacred Heart, SFPA, and Wagner. They can widen that lead today.
-UNC ASHEVILLE AT RADFORD (Big South). UNCA has a one game lead on Radford with four games to go, so this one is extremely pivotal. If UNCA wins they can clinch at least a share of first place this weekend. If Radford wins it’s deadlocked heading into the final week.
-MILWAUKEE AT YOUNGSTOWN STATE (Horizon League). Both teams are tied for 1st place with just four games to go, so this one is hugely pivotal
-SOUTHERN MISS AT SOUTH ALABAMA (Sun Belt). Southern Miss has a two game lead with just four games to go, and can come within a game of clinching at least a share of 1st place with a win tonight. They should also get a serious look from the committee if they win out, but fail to win the SBC Tournament.
-SOUTHERN INDIANA AT LITTLE ROCK (Ohio Valley). Little Rock is one game out of 8th place with just four remaining. A loss tonight and a loss to Eastern Illinois on Saturday would eliminate them.
-SELA AT NORTHWESTERN STATE (Southland). Northwestern State is tied with TAMUCC for first place with five games remaining
-TENNESSEE STATE AT MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley). Morehead State has a two game lead with just four games to go, and Tennessee State is among five teams that are tied for second behind Morehead. If Morehead wins tonight and wins Saturday they clinch at least a share. If they lose tonight then it is potentially a complete logjam heading into the final week.