Conference Tourney Previews, Part 2 of 2

HoopsHD keeps celebrating the greatest time of the year with the 2nd part of our preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel continues our coverage with his predictions for the 17 conference tourneys getting underway this week/weekend. Tweet us if you have any comments, and if you missed his picks last week concerning the 15 other conference tourneys you can find them at:
https://hoopshd.com/2023/02/27/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-2-8

AAC tourney predicted champ: Houston (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Fort Worth, TX
2022 tourney champ: Houston (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Houston has been in title game each year since 2018
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were top-2 seed
Houston does not need a conference tourney title to advance…but will probably win 1 anyway as they attempt to get a #1 overall seed on Selection Sunday. Coach Kelvin Sampson has put together as good of a stretch as anyone in the nation during the past 6 years with 5 seasons of 27+ wins, but this might just be his best team ever despite nobody on the roster taller than 6’8”. The Cougars have lost exactly 2 games all season by a combined 7 PTS and are top-6 in the nation in both offensive AND defensive efficiency. They have a strong chance to win the national title in their home city on April 3rd.

A-10 tourney predicted champ: George Washington (#7 seed)
Dates: March 7-12
Location: Brooklyn, NY
2022 tourney champ: Richmond (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs since 2015
Seeding: only 1 of past 8 champs was top-2 seed
This tourney has not been kind to top-2 seeds in the past so you should think twice before just handing the trophy to VCU or Dayton. The Colonials were 6-7 in league play in mid-February but got hot at the right time with 4 straight wins before losing the season finale at home by 6 PTS to VCU. Coach Chris Caputo might be a 1st year head coach but is no stranger to success in March: he spent more than 15 years as an assistant to Jim Larranaga, including a Final 4 appearance with GMU in 2006 and an Elite 8 appearance with Miami last spring. I saw them beat Dayton in person in January and they have won 4 games since then that went to OT so if you are going to beat GW then you better do so during the 1st 40 minutes.

ACC tourney predicted champ: Duke (#4 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: Greensboro, NC
2022 tourney champ: Virginia Tech (#7 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 7 tourneys
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not top-2 seed
Duke is a bit of a homecourt hero…and has a 1st-year head coach…and is freaking Duke, but if you like teams paying well down the stretch then you cannot escape the fact that they won each of their final 6 regular season games. The good part about having so many teams crowded together at the top is that even if you pick a 4 seed it should not be considered that much of an upset. The Blue Devils have recently been known for having big-time scorers like Zion Williamson/Jayson Tatum, but this year’s squad is actually getting it done on defense, as they are top-40 in the nation in FG% allowed from both 2-PT/3-PT range. As for 1-PT range, they will just have to hope their opponents stop making an incredible 76% of their FTs. The key during their winning streak has been FR Kyle Filipowski: since going scoreless in 30 minutes during an OT loss at Virginia on February 11th he has averaged 16 PPG/9 RPG while making 28-33 FTs.

Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Kansas State (#3 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Kansas City, MO
2022 tourney champ: Kansas (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2013 are Iowa State/Kansas/Texas
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were not top-2 seed
Kansas proved in 2022 that winning this tourney can help you win an NCAA title…but Baylor proved in 2021 that even if you get upset in the semifinals you can STILL win an NCAA title! I am normally not a fan of 1st-year coaches, especially when they lose 3 of 4 games to start February, but Jerome Tang got his guys back on track by winning 4 in a row before losing the regular season finale on the road by 8 PTS to West Virginia. However, this conference features so many terrific teams that literally all of them are capable of making the title game. The Wildcats are great at defending the 3-PT line (29.5 3P% allowed is top-15 in the nation) and have 1 of the best inside/outside combinations in the country, as Keyontae Johnson/Markquis Nowell have combined to average 35 PPG/11 RPG/10 APG.

Big East tourney predicted champ: Xavier (#2 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: New York, NY
2022 tourney champ: Villanova (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Villanova has won 4 of past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
If Georgetown wins this 1 then I might just have to throw out the old keyboard because it means I know absolutely NOTHING about this sport. Coach Sean Miller won the A-10 tourney during his 1st go-round at Xavier in 2006 and then a trio of Pac-12 tourneys as coach at Arizona so he certainly knows what it takes to hoist the trophy. Even though the Musketeers lost 5 games in 5 weeks from mid-January to mid-February, 4 of those losses were by 1-2 PTS, which means that if they can just make some more FTs or get a couple more defensive stops then I feel they can go on a long winning streak. If that does not work: just keep shooting threes, as their 39.8 3P% is #4 in the nation. Even though big man Zach Freemantle (aka Big Frosty) is done for the year due to foot surgery, they have grown accustomed to his absence by now.

Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Penn State (#10 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Chicago, IL
2022 tourney champ: Iowa (#5 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs since 2018
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were not top-4 seed
There are like 10 different teams who could win this tourney…and if it was held in Piscataway then there would be an 11th! Purdue is certainly good enough to make a run, but since 1-seeds have not fared well in this tourney I will go WAY down the standings to pick a Penn State team that won 5 of their final 6 games with only a horrible home loss to Rutgers after blowing a 19-PT lead with 17 minutes to go. Their 39.9 3P% is #7 in the nation and they have 1 of the best all-around players in the nation: SR Jalen Pickett is averaging 18 PPG/7 RPG/7 APG while shooting almost 39% from the 3-PT line. There may also not be a team in the country who needs a couple more wins than the Nittany Lions, as they are sitting squarely on the bubble.

Big West tourney predicted champ: UCSB (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: Henderson, NV
2022 tourney champ: Fullerton (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2016
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
This tourney seems to have a new champ every year and the Gauchos have only won it once in the past decade so why not them? Coach Joe Pasternack’s team looked very shaky in mid-February with 3 straight double-digit losses but found the knack in the nick of time by winning 4 straight to finish the regular season. UCSB has a super-efficient offense (49.5 FG% is #7 in the nation) that is led by the 2-headed monster of Ajay Mitchell/Miles Norris, who have combined for 30 PPG/9 RPG. The 2 concerns are whether they can win a close game (their opponents’ 75.2 FT% is among the highest in the country) and whether they can beat the #1 seed in UC-Riverside (who swept the Gauchos this year).

C-USA tourney predicted champ: Florida Atlantic (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Frisco, TX
2022 tourney champ: UAB (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2017
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
The Owls lost 15 games last year but have been near-perfect this year with only 3 losses all season. North Texas/UAB have both been able to hang with Florida Atlantic but will probably have to battle each other to the death in the tourney semifinals. Coach Dusty May has a well-balanced offense with 5 guys scoring 9-14 PPG, and they also hit the boards as their 27.7 defensive RPG is top-20 in the nation. His team is so good that they probably do not even need to win their opening game to make the NCAA tourney. The most terrifying thing is that Michael Forrest is the only SR on the entire roster so they might just end up as a protected seed in 2024!

Ivy tourney predicted champ: Yale (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-12
Location: Princeton, NJ
2022 tourney champ: Yale (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only team to win tourney since 2019 is Yale
Seeding: each of 4 all-time champs were top-2 seed
As much as I would like to pick my Quakers to rally from a 9-11 start this season and end up making the NCAA tourney…my Penn education has taught me that is a poor wager. Since it might literally kill me to pick Princeton despite their home-court advantage, I will be going with Yale. Coach Joe Jones stumbled out of the block by losing 3 of 4 to start conference play (including an almost inexcusable road loss at Columbia) but has righted the ship by winning 9 of his final 10 with only a 2-PT loss at the Palestra. The Bulldogs will not be intimidated by Jadwin Gymnasium since they swept the Tigers this season but health could be the X-factor, as leading scorer Matt Knowling missed the past 3 games with a sprained ankle.

MAAC tourney predicted champ: Iona (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
2022 tourney champ: St. Peter’s (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Iona has won 6 of past 9 tourneys
Seeding: 10 of past 11 champs were not #1 seed
Iona has owned this tourney for most of the past decade…and even though this tourney has not been kind to 1 seeds, if the Gaels were able to win it 2 years ago as a 9-seed then how on earth could anyone pick against them as the best team in the league this year!? It is also never a good idea to bet against Rick Pitino in March. He has only lost 3 games since Christmas due to his team being top-10 in the nation at defending the 3-PT line (29.5 3P% allowed). The Gaels only got 7 games out of SR Quinn Slazinski before season-ending ankle surgery and Cruz Davis missed the final 7 games due to an Achilles injury, so it remains to be seen if Iona will have enough left in the tank to win 3 games in 4 days.

MAC tourney predicted champ: Toledo (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-11
Location: Cleveland, OH
2022 tourney champ: Akron (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were not top-2 seed
This tourney is often won by an underdog but when the big dog (Toledo) has the longest winning streak in the nation at 15 games and counting you go with the momentum. The Rockets have not made the NCAA tourney since 1980 so it is far from a slam dunk, and even if they were the defending champ you should not pencil them in just yet because the #2 seed (Kent State) beat them by double-digits on January 10th. Coach Tod Kowalczyk has a below-average defensive team but when your top-3 scorers (RayJ Dennis/JT Shumate/Setric Millner) are combining to average 52 PPG/15 RPG you are not going to have a lot of low-scoring affairs so prepare for take-off!

MEAC tourney predicted champ: Howard (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Norfolk, VA
2022 tourney champ: Norfolk State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs since 2011 who are still in this conference are NC Central/Norfolk State
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
There has not been a lot of DC-area basketball worth cheering about this year but the program that has looked the most impressive is Howard. Despite not having won this tourney since 1992, they have a legitimate shot this year due to an amazing turnaround led by Coach Kenny Blakeney. He won 5 games combined during his 1st 2 years but followed up last year’s 16-13 season with a regular season championship this year. The Bison have been living by the 3, as their 37.6 3P% is top-25 in the nation. They also have a very young team, with only 1 SR in the starting lineup, but instead of throwing in the towel after a 4-8 start they have come of age while winning 11 of their last 13 games.

MWC tourney predicted champ: San Diego State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2022 tourney champ: Boise State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: San Diego State has made title game each of past 5 years
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
1 of the few things you can bank on in Vegas is that the Aztecs will make this title game, since they have done so for 5 years in a row. They are not invincible, and only 1-3 in neutral-site games this season, but Coach Brian Dutcher’s team remains stout on defense as always. San Diego State is not outstanding in any 1 particular category but 1 thing they do have going for them is experience, as each of their top-9 scorers are juniors/seniors. That being said, their epic collapse at Boise State on February 28th was as close to a red flag as we have seen all year.

Pac-12 predicted champ: UCLA (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2022 tourney champ: Arizona (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2015 are Arizona/Oregon/Oregon State
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were top-2 seed
Are you loving the tourney logo with the anonymous player’s number representing the # of teams in this league?! The Bruins have not won this tourney since 2014, but they proved they were the class of this league all season long by winning 24 of their past 26 games with only a pair of road losses to Arizona/USC. Coach Mick Cronin has been starting a pair of McDonald’s All-Americans this season in Amari Bailey/Adem Bona, and they have been great complimentary pieces to the scoring of Jaime Jaquez Jr., the passing of Tyger Campbell, and the thievery of Jaylen Clark. UCLA made the Final 4 in 2021 as an 11-seed before losing on 1 of the all-time daggers from Jalen Suggs, so you can bet that they want to get as high a seed as possible to avoid such a fate this time around.

SEC predicted champ: Texas A&M (#2 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Nashville, TN
2022 tourney champ: Tennessee (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs since 2018
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were top-2 seed
I thought our good friend Uncle Buzz had nowhere to go but down after last year’s 27-win season that came up 1 possession shy of winning the NIT over Xavier, especially after a home loss to Wofford on December 20th. However, he has exceeded all expectations since then by winning 17 of his final 20 games including a pair of home victories over Tennessee/Alabama. The Aggies are a bit of a homecourt hero, as 7 of their 8 losses occurred away from College Station, but anyone who can go 15-3 in the SEC is no joke. They have a relatively young team with only 2 seniors among their top-9 scorers, but there is literally nobody better at knocking down FTs, as their 19.4 FTM/game is #1 in the nation.

SWAC predicted champ: Grambling (#2 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Birmingham, AL
2022 tourney champ: Texas Southern (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Texas Southern has won 6 of past 8 tourneys and finished 2nd once
Seeding: 8 of past 10 champs were top-2 seed
Texas Southern used to own this tourney but they have been rather underwhelming this year so the door is ajar for someone else to win it. In contrast, Grambling has never made the NCAA tourney but I think this could be their year. Since mid-January they won 12 of 13 games with only a 3-PT loss to Alcorn State, who they will probably have to face in the title game. Coach Donte Jackson’s team does its damage on defense, as they are top-30 in the nation in shooting percentage allowed from each of 1-PT/2-PT/3-PT range. The big red flag is their FT shooting: 63.5% is bottom-10 in the nation.

WAC predicted champ: Utah Valley (#2 seed)
Dates: March 6-11
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2022 tourney champ: New Mexico State (#3 seed)
Fun fact: New Mexico State has made title game each year since 2012
Seeding: 19 of past 20 champs were top-3 seed
This appears to be a 2-team race between Utah Valley and Sam Houston, and since the Wolverines skinned the Bearkats by 16 PTS in their only meeting on December 29th they get the nod. 25 years ago Mark Madsen helped his Stanford squad make the Final 4 before a 1-PT OT loss to eventual champ Kentucky: now he has a chance to help Utah Valley make the 1st NCAA tourney in school history. They are not going to beat you from behind the arc as their 32.3 3P% is well-below-average, but thanks to their Twin Towers of 7’ Aziz Bandaogo/6’9” Tim Fuller they lead the nation with 6.7 BPG.