Before you look at the bracket, I want everyone to know what it is they are looking at. This is NOT an attempt to guess what the real committee will do on Selection Sunday. If that is what you’re looking for, then check out Jon Teitel’s latest bracket by CLICKING HERE. He’s one of the best people on the planet at guessing the actual selection committee. He’s certainly far better at it than I have ever been or ever will be.
These are my own personal picks of what the field would look like if the season ended today. I’m not guessing the future, but merely assessing what teams have already done. I’m also really asking myself just one question. How hard was it for a team to earn the record they have against the schedule that they have played. That’s really it. I’m not even really ranking teams on how good or bad I actually believe them to be. Just how hard it was for them to win the games that they’ve won.
I have some notes below the bracket, and my Hoops HD colleagues will have some comments of their own. Many of them will disagree with what I have done! Well…THEY ARE WRONG!!!!
-The 32 auto-bid winners are indicated with an asterisk (*)
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Boston College, Nebraska, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Georgia, George Mason, NC State, Syracuse, Boise State, Saint Bonaventure, TCU, SMU, Iowa State, Virginia, Xavier, Texas Tech, New Mexico, Texas, Pittsburgh
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-What generally impresses me the most is wins away from home. What impresses me the least is winning buy games at home. If teams are seeded lower than you expected (or not selected at all) chances are it’s because they haven’t won any games that are actually hard to win. Take Texas, for instance. There are over 100 teams that could have posted the record they’ve posted against the schedule that they’ve played. That’s why they’re not in.
-North Carolina on the 1-line may surprise some people, but the reason they’re there is because they’ve won a lot of games away from home, most recently at Clemson. Something most #1-seeds always have on their resume is a true road win against a protected seed. The Tarheels appear to have that.
-Florida Atlantic and Villanova are typically hard to place. Their wins are fantastic and their losses are head-scratchers. A case could be made that they both deserve protected seeds based on their wins, and a case could also be made that they should be left out altogether based on their losses.
-Cincinnati is on the 7-line, largely because of their win at BYU yesterday. Prior to yesterday I wouldn’t have even had them in the field at all.
-Seton Hall and Saint John’s are both playing really well right now, and I expect their resumes to continue to improve if they keep it up.
COMMENTS FROM OTHER STAFF MEMBERS:
From John Stalica:
- I like the picks of both Seton Hall and St. John’s in the field as of this week. Especially The Hall – they now have home wins against UConn and Marquette and now have a road win at Providence as well. As for Providence, keep in mind that Bryce Hopkins tore his ACL and will be out for the remainder of the season. The Friars are going to have to figure out how to win without him going forward.
- Florida Atlantic is quickly trending in the wrong direction. They have a pair of Tier 1 wins away from home that are being cancelled out by 2 Tier 4 losses. They just added a Tier 2 loss at Charlotte over the weekend. They may be getting closer to the 8/9 seed line along with Villanova at this rate.
- Griggs got it right when he said Gonzaga was a 13 seed. However, he was on shrooms when he had them in the First Four as one of the at-larges. Which means he had Saint Mary’s as an 11 seed and therefore is guilty of bracketology malpractice. I hope he has Chad on retainer for that case.
- Bad losses can be really unforgiving in the Atlantic 10 – Saint Joseph’s just had a major bedwetting at Rhode Island last week and will be teetering between Tier 3 and Tier 4 for the rest of the year. They won’t have many chances to make up for that in conference play.