This week, it is David Dorman’s turn to build the bracket. Below is his bracket, and below that are his comments…
COMMENTS FROM DAVID DORMAN:
-This week’s bracket was filled with tough decisions on almost every line.
-Our UTR Conferences have some very tight and exciting conference races for the top seed in the conference tournament as we hit the end of January.
-Last few teams to make my bracket were:
Northwestern
Gonzaga
Nebraska
Indiana State
-I have been pushing for a two bid Missouri Valley since November but this is my first bracket of 2024 that actually had two teams from “The Valley” as Drake and Indiana State made it in this week.
-Neither the Sycamore’s or Bulldogs (both 7-1 in the conference) can afford more than a few more losses in the Valley before Arch Madness if they want to get an at-large bid. This will be a tough feat considering the conference is solid in the middle and Valley road trips are always tricky.
Moving on UP:
-Utah jumped a few seed lines with a big win over Oregon on Sunday in Salt Lake City.
-Dayton keeps on winning and those around them keep losing so the Flyers are a safe protected seed in my eyes as of today.
This is my first bracket of this season with Wake Forest in the field. A huge road test tonight in Chapel Hill would make me feel really good about putting them in this week’s bracket.
Free Falling:
-Duke had a protected seed in my bracket last week but no more. A rough home loss to Pitt knocked them down a few seed lines.
-Nebraska was safely in my field just a few weeks back. Since then they have lost 3 of their last 5 including road losses to Iowa and Rutgers. A few big weeks are coming up for Fred Hoiberg’s squad with opportunities looming against Wisconsin, Illinois and Northwestern after they play Ohio State and Maryland this week.
-Oregon is 5-2 in PAC play but just dropped two games on the tough Mountain road swing at Utah and Colorado. The Ducks are right on the cutline and can not afford to lose to Arizona State this week at home.
Thoughts on the at large pool either just making or just missing my bracket:
-The resumes of my last 10 teams in my bracket look very similar to my first 12 teams out of my bracket. One big win or one tough loss is the difference between a bid and the NIT as we sit today. These teams can’t afford home losses and really strengthen their resume with road wins.
-When it gets to the cutline in my brackets I have always looked for a win on a resume that very few (or zero) other teams have. An example of this is Northwestern staying in my bracket currently because they have wins over Purdue and Dayton. Very few teams have beaten Purdue or Dayton this year so that gives Northwestern a slight edge over other at large candidates.
Some enormous games for the bracket this week, just to list a few…
Monday:
Wake Forest @ UNC
Cincinnati @ Kansas
Tuesday
Kentucky @ South Carolina
Texas @ Oklahoma
Wednesday
Auburn @ Alabama
Villanova @ St. John’s
Illinois @ Northwestern
Kansas St @ Iowa State
Thursday
Vermont @ UMass-Lowell
Drexel @ Towson
Merrimack @ Wagner
Oakland @ Green Bay
ASU @ Oregon
San Francisco @ Gonzaga
Enjoy the games,
David Dorman
CHAD’S COMMENTS
- When I started reviewing Dorman’s bracket, I was shocked at how much I agreed with him. His first 4 seed lines were very close to what I would have done. His 5 line even looked pretty good . . . until I got to the Utes. Utah has one win against a team solidly in the field, and that was a home win against a BYU team that has not shown any serious ability to win road games. They also have 2 losses (Stanford and Arizona State) against teams that are nowhere near the bubble right now. While I would have them in the field, it would be at lest 3 seed lines lower than this.
- I respect that Dorman wanted to get two MVC teams in the field, though I am not certain both Indiana State and Drake belong quite yet. However, having Drake on the 7 line is WAY too high. I do not believe this team is at-large worthy at all right now. They have one win away from home against a tournament caliber team, and that was neutral court to a Nevada team that is sinking like a stone (and Dorman actually did not even give a bid to). Add in *THREE* Tier 3 losses to non-tournament teams, and the Bulldogs still have a lot of work to do to even get onto the 11 line, let alone sniff a 7 seed.
- St Mary’s on the 9 line is a stretch for me as well. I would have them in (as the auto-bid winner), but am not yet certain the Gaels dance without that auto bid. They may be playing great ball right now, but you cannot just overlook home losses to Weber State and Missouri State.
- Colorado also boggles my mind on the 9 line. This team has no wins against any team solidly in the field, and only one win against a bubble team (home over Oregon). On the other hand, there are 3 losses to teams nowhere near the bubble (Florida State, Arizona State and Cal). I would have them out.
- I think Dorman’s West Coast bias is showing on the 10 line. Seton Hall and Villanova both have profiles way better than everyone on his next 3 or 4 seed lines up. There teams are 6 or 7 seeds with the quality wins they have, not bubbles teams on the 10 line.
- I don’t understand why everyone is suddenly in love with Wake Forest’s profile. The Deacons have no wins against the field and their only wins over bubble teams all came at home (Virginia, Va Tech and Miami). They also have 4 losses against teams not in the field and maybe not even on the bubble (NC State, Georgia, Florida State, LSU). I need to see way more out of this team before I can be serious about them. In fact, I would prefer Virginia Tech over Wake — at least the Hokies have solid wins (Iowa State, Boise State and Clemson, the top two of which were away from home).
- I get that Gonzaga is in this field and in a lot of people’s fields, but I see nothing on their profile other than their name that leads me to believe they are at-large worthy. Their best win is over Syracuse. And they have a pair of losses to teams not under consideration at all (Washington and Santa Clara). I prefer teams that have shown they can beat someone good, such as Virginia Tech, Texas (off their win over Baylor) or even Cincinnati. I could even make a case for UCF with their wins over Kansas and Texas before I have any interest in teams like the Zags and Wake that have failed to prove they have any shot at winning a game over anyone above the 15 line.
- Again, I did love Dorman’s top 4 seed lines — after that, he and I are clearly on different pages. The good news is that there is a lot of season left for all of this to be sorted out, starting with the games he listed above!