This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly staff bracket for Hoops HD. This is not where we try to guess what the Selection Committee will do – that is what our colleagues like Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller do on a regular basis. Rather, this is who John would have in the field as of today.
First Four Out: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Miami, Virginia
Worth a Look: Wake Forest, SMU, Drake, Michigan State, James Madison
JOHN’S COMMENTS:
The 1-line is starting to take better shape and, from a resume perspective, Purdue gets the edge for #1 overall. As yesterday proved, UConn may well have the highest ceiling of anyone in the country right now.
I am starting to believe in what teams like Texas Tech and Iowa State have been able to accomplish in the Big 12. Baylor and Oklahoma (especially the Sooners) are in a bit of decline right now. Of course, their “reward” is a first-round matchup against Nebraska. In Omaha. Good luck with that.
Memphis might not even be in this field much longer at this rate. Had they lost at home against Vandy back in December, they certainly wouldn’t be.
OTHER COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-This isn’t so much me disagreeing with Stalica as much as it is me disagreeing with virtually everyone. Oklahoma is way overvalued. Now to be fair, John has them lower than most people, and even makes mention in his notes that they are on the decline. John barely has Texas in. Texas has played a tougher strength of schedule, Texas has more road wins, Texas has more quad 1 wins, and on top of all that, Texas won handily AT OKLAHOMA!!! I’m not trying to gush over Texas so much as I am trying to dump on Oklahoma! Texas, by virtually every measurement, is better than Oklahoma, with the exception of perhaps one area. Oklahoma’s losses aren’t quite as bad. Texas lost to UCF and West Virginia (who both also beat Kansas) whereas Oklahoma’s losses were to better teams….like, say…TEXAS!!
-In looking at the top of John’s seedlist, I agree with all of his #1 line, and all but one of his #2 line. I like Marquette a little more, but John has them as #9 overall, so we aren’t exactly all that far apart on them.
-It’s interesting to see that he still has Princeton on the #10 line after they got beat so badly by Cornell over the weekend. I don’t think he’s wrong. In fact I’d probably argue for them to be there. I don’t think the real committee would have them there at this point, though.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
-I will take some exception with John’s top 4 lines. I just do not understand Baylor on the 3 line. The Bears have lost 3 in a row and have only one true road win. That is a 5 or 6 seed profile. I also don’t get Utah State on the 4 line. I would rather San Diego State be there with a way tougher Strength of Schedule. I just think the Aztecs are a better team. By several seed lines.
-My biggest issue is with Auburn. The Tigers have *ZERO* Quad 1 wins and do not have a win away from home against a team that is at-large worthy. They also have a loss to a team that is below the at-large cut line (at App State). I simply do not understand why everyone loves this team. Is it because they lose close games? You don’t get a protected seed for losing games!
-Iowa State is under-seeded on the 6 line. The Cyclones now have wins over Houston and Kansas and do not have a bad loss. I could see this team in the protected seed range instead of some of John’s other choices.
-Seton Hall was one of the hottest teams in the nation and climbing everyone’s seed lists. They now have a 3 game losing streak including a home loss to Providence. I think the Hall is still in the field, but at 13-8 overall and with a sub-.500 record against Quads 1-3, just barely in. I would have them in Dayton.
-Seton Hall’s conference mate, Villanova, is even worse shape. In addition to their three bad losses in the Big Five Challenge, the Wildcats have now lost 5 of their last 6 games — and the one win was at home over DePaul! I would have Villanova OUT right now.
-Nevada does not belong in right now either. The Wolf Pack are fading fast in the Mountain West and have only two wins against tournament teams, and one of those is against a Colorado State team that has been slipping a ton lately as well.
-Colorado (rather than Oregon), Michigan State and Virginia are the three teams John left out that I would have in. I also think the Gonzaga is very close to being back in this field as they keep winning and the rest of the Bubble keeps losing.
Bracketology – Staff Bracket (Monday, January 29th)
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly staff bracket for Hoops HD. This is not where we try to guess what the Selection Committee will do – that is what our colleagues like Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller do on a regular basis. Rather, this is who John would have in the field as of today.
First Four Out: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Miami, Virginia
Worth a Look: Wake Forest, SMU, Drake, Michigan State, James Madison
JOHN’S COMMENTS:
The 1-line is starting to take better shape and, from a resume perspective, Purdue gets the edge for #1 overall. As yesterday proved, UConn may well have the highest ceiling of anyone in the country right now.
I am starting to believe in what teams like Texas Tech and Iowa State have been able to accomplish in the Big 12. Baylor and Oklahoma (especially the Sooners) are in a bit of decline right now. Of course, their “reward” is a first-round matchup against Nebraska. In Omaha. Good luck with that.
Memphis might not even be in this field much longer at this rate. Had they lost at home against Vandy back in December, they certainly wouldn’t be.
OTHER COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-This isn’t so much me disagreeing with Stalica as much as it is me disagreeing with virtually everyone. Oklahoma is way overvalued. Now to be fair, John has them lower than most people, and even makes mention in his notes that they are on the decline. John barely has Texas in. Texas has played a tougher strength of schedule, Texas has more road wins, Texas has more quad 1 wins, and on top of all that, Texas won handily AT OKLAHOMA!!! I’m not trying to gush over Texas so much as I am trying to dump on Oklahoma! Texas, by virtually every measurement, is better than Oklahoma, with the exception of perhaps one area. Oklahoma’s losses aren’t quite as bad. Texas lost to UCF and West Virginia (who both also beat Kansas) whereas Oklahoma’s losses were to better teams….like, say…TEXAS!!
-In looking at the top of John’s seedlist, I agree with all of his #1 line, and all but one of his #2 line. I like Marquette a little more, but John has them as #9 overall, so we aren’t exactly all that far apart on them.
-It’s interesting to see that he still has Princeton on the #10 line after they got beat so badly by Cornell over the weekend. I don’t think he’s wrong. In fact I’d probably argue for them to be there. I don’t think the real committee would have them there at this point, though.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
-I will take some exception with John’s top 4 lines. I just do not understand Baylor on the 3 line. The Bears have lost 3 in a row and have only one true road win. That is a 5 or 6 seed profile. I also don’t get Utah State on the 4 line. I would rather San Diego State be there with a way tougher Strength of Schedule. I just think the Aztecs are a better team. By several seed lines.
-My biggest issue is with Auburn. The Tigers have *ZERO* Quad 1 wins and do not have a win away from home against a team that is at-large worthy. They also have a loss to a team that is below the at-large cut line (at App State). I simply do not understand why everyone loves this team. Is it because they lose close games? You don’t get a protected seed for losing games!
-Iowa State is under-seeded on the 6 line. The Cyclones now have wins over Houston and Kansas and do not have a bad loss. I could see this team in the protected seed range instead of some of John’s other choices.
-Seton Hall was one of the hottest teams in the nation and climbing everyone’s seed lists. They now have a 3 game losing streak including a home loss to Providence. I think the Hall is still in the field, but at 13-8 overall and with a sub-.500 record against Quads 1-3, just barely in. I would have them in Dayton.
-Seton Hall’s conference mate, Villanova, is even worse shape. In addition to their three bad losses in the Big Five Challenge, the Wildcats have now lost 5 of their last 6 games — and the one win was at home over DePaul! I would have Villanova OUT right now.
-Nevada does not belong in right now either. The Wolf Pack are fading fast in the Mountain West and have only two wins against tournament teams, and one of those is against a Colorado State team that has been slipping a ton lately as well.
-Colorado (rather than Oregon), Michigan State and Virginia are the three teams John left out that I would have in. I also think the Gonzaga is very close to being back in this field as they keep winning and the rest of the Bubble keeps losing.