Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Sunday, Feb 4th

NEWS AND NOTES:

-We had three top ten match-ups yesterday, and while those were all big showcase games, I don’t think any of the final results ended up moving the needle THAT much (although today’s Purdue vs Wisconsin game could).

-North Carolina kept Duke at arms length for the entire game. I think everyone kept waiting for Duke to make a run simply because we’ve seen it happen so many times in this rivalry, but at no point did it feel like UNC was not in complete control. UNC ended up with the 93-84 win, they’ remain on our #1 line, Duke is still a solid protected seed despite the loss, and the teams are still 8 miles apart. No huge changes.

-Kansas’s 78-65 win over Houston was particularly impressive given how effective Kansas was offensively against one of the best defensive teams in the country. Similar to Duke v UNC, at no point did it feel like the Jayhawks were not in control. They did get the win, and it was a big one, but losing on the road to Kansas isn’t going to knock Houston down all that far, if at all. So, no huge changes.

-Tennessee’s 103-92 win at Kentucky was probably the most meaningful simply because it was a road win against a likely protected seed for the Vols. There is now a case that Tennessee belongs on the #1 line, and whether or not they actually get there in this week’s forecasts they absolutely have a path to get there by the end of the year.

-Iowa State v Baylor was a crazy entertaining game!! It was SOOO entertaining that the refs kept wanting to rewatch a lot of it on replay! Scott Drew was kicked out of the game for two technical fouls where he was outside the coaches box, but not disrupting the game. Petty, but…whatever. That is the rule. After a parade of technical fouls and freethrows, Iowa State drew even after being behind the whole time, then got the lead, but Baylor fought back to tie it. Baylor hit what appeared to be a game winning shot after the Baylor coaches that had not been ejected and were still on the floor were screaming for a timeout, but the referees failed to acknowledge it. It was a rare case of a referee’s mistake benefited a team that tried to call a timeout, but didn’t get it. Then, after another long pause to adjust the clock, Iowa State hit what appeared to be a game-winning desperation 3 at the end of the game!! But WAIT!! The referees had one final curtain call!! After another several-minute-long-review, the shot was waived off and Baylor win 70-68. It would have been a MASSIVE road win for Iowa State’s profile, but even without it they’re still in good shape.

-Cincinnati’s resume is among the most scattershot that I’ve ever seen. They had lost to West Virginia earlier in the week, which was their 5th loss in 7 games, and I was ready to write them off. So, of course, they go and get a road win at Texas Tech 75-72. Cincinnati now has road wins at BYU and Texas Tech, and no others other than a close win at Howard. I think they’re on the bubble, but am not sure.

-Auburn, who needed a big win in the worst way, finally got one yesterday as they knocked off Ole Miss on the road 91-77. The Tigers actually trailed early in the game, but looked fantastic down the stretch.

-Oklahoma, who did manage a nice road win earlier in the week, was unable to follow it up at UCF last night as they fell 74-63.

-Mississippi State, who has been awful on the road all year, was exceptionally awful at Alabama last night. They got their doors blown off by the Tide 99-67. I personally feel that a team with no road wins does not belong in the field at this point, but nevertheless most of the selection committee guessing experts continue to project them in. I’m not a selection committee guessing expert, so I guess I yield to them even if I personally don’t agree.

-Texas got ANOTHER big win as they went into TCU and knocked off the Horned Frogs 77-66. The selection committee guessing experts don’t seem to value the Longhorns that much, and I have no idea why. But, again, I’m not a selection committee guessing expert.

-Memphis snapped their four game losing streak!! They beat Wichita State! At home! By 2 points! And came from behind to do it! Umm…yay??

-South Carolina continues to rack up good wins and look like they may end up as a protected seed. They knocked off Georgia on the road 72-62. Georgia isn’t a team that’s inside the bubble, but to beat them on their floor is still a nice win.

-Virginia may finally be pulling it together. Their 66-65 win at Clemson yesterday was their best of the season and the Hoos are definitely trending up.

-Northwestern, who is a team that we want to like, needs to do better away from home. They lost at Minnesota 75-66 in overtime, and the reason this could be problematic is because it was arguably one of their most winnable remaining road games.

-Florida, who had been trending up, had that trend stuffed back a little bit when they failed to win at Texas A&M. They certainly had their chances, but the Aggies held on for a 67-66 win that they themselves desperately needed.

-Richmond’s 11 game winning streak is over. They fell on the road to rival VCU 63-52.

-Keep an eye on Samford. They had been winning a lot of close and exciting games, so I was kind of expecting them to fall rather handily on the road to a red hot Chattanooga team. Samford blew their doors off in one of the more impressive showings we’ve seen from a UTR team all season. If Samford can win out, the committee should give them a very serious look.

-McNeese, who we were expecting to absolutely blow through the Southland, lost at SELA yesterday 77-74 in what was actually probably the biggest surprise of the day. They fell way behind, but came back and had a chance to force overtime, but couldn’t get a shot to fall. I think this kills McNeese. They will win a lot of games, but one of those wins better be in the Southland Championship game.

-Colorado continues to struggle on the road. They fell at Utah 73-68 and their lack of road wins is becoming a serious issue.

-Indiana State avenged their loss to Drake from earlier in the season as they held off the Bulldogs 75-67. The game was actually a lot closer than what the final score indicated. I think both these teams deserve a serious look from the committee, especially when you consider how hard it is to win some of the road games that they’ve both won, but right now I think the Trees have the upper hand.

-Washington State got an exciting overtime 100-97 win over rival Washington, which is a very nice road win for Wazzu. The Cougars are squarely on our bubble and have a path to land in the NCAA Tournament.

-Oregon lost at UCLA 71-63. In most years that’s hardly noteworthy, but this year it knocks them from being outside the bubble to being much much MUCH further outside the bubble.

-Saint Mary’s got a really nice road win over rival Gonzaga 64-62. It was close and hard fought all throughout, and in the last 47 seconds we had at least three video reviews, which I guess again demonstrates how much the referees were enjoying the game and wanting to keep watching it replayed on TV. It was tense at the end, and the Zags fans were throwing things onto the court. I don’t the constant stops for what seemed to be much longer than necessary video replays were helping the situation. But, at the end of the day, the Gaels got a very nice road win and are now firmly in the drivers seat in the WCC and to land inside the bubble.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-PURDUE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Of the four top ten match-ups that we’ve seen/will see this weekend, this is the one that excites me the most. It’s undoubtedly Purdue’s toughest game of the year. They’re on the road against a team that appears to be heading for the #2 line, and that could even get up to the #1 line if they can win the Big Ten. That means winning this game. It’s a great match-up on the court between two great offensive and defensive teams, it has Big Ten regular season implications, and perhaps #1 seed implications.

-PROVIDENCE AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Both of these teams really need this game. Providence is fighting to stay inside the bubble, and any road win like this certainly helps their cause. Nova is fighting just to reach the bubble, and virtually every game they play seems to have a pivotal feel to it.

-NEBRASKA AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). We have Nebraska inside the bubble, but needing to do a little more in order to stay there and Illinois flirting with a protected seed. A win at Illinois would certainly constitute “Doing a little more” for Nebraska. It woudl actually constitute doing quite a bit more. But, it won’t be easy!

-STANFORD AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). It was rather surprising when Arizona fell to Stanford earlier this season. They should be able to hold serve at home in this one tonight.