Below is David Dorman’s personal bracket projections. It is a checkpoint of current merit, and it is not an attempt to guess the real committee, but rather what the field would look like if the season ended today and he was a committee of one.
Below the bracket are some of his comments…
COMMENTS FROM DAVID DORMAN:
-We had movement at the top of my bracket this week as UConn climbed up to the number 1 overall seed. Purdue moves down 1 spot to the second overall seed, while Houston stays at three and Arizona fourth overall.
-My last 4 teams in this week’s bracket are:
Gonzaga
Butler
Providence
Utah
-Seeding the 6 seeds through the 11 seeds was very difficult for me this week. There is not much separating this section of the bracket. One big win or a tough loss can send these teams up or down the bracket very quickly.
-Moving up this week was Kentucky after a huge win at Auburn. They were sliding down my bracket the two previous weeks after 3 home losses but this win at Auburn really impressed me. Remember most champions go through a rough spell at some point in the season. Was this Kentucky’s low point and now they take off?
-Washington State was not in my bracket a month ago but now they sit on the 7 line and safely in the field. Incredible season in the Palouse for Coach Kyle Smith and his Cougar team. Utah gave the PAC 12 a third team in the field but the Utes are far from safe. They escaped last night at UCLA and head to Colorado this week for a huge matchup in Boulder.
-Seton Hall will probably be a controversial selection in my bracket this week, especially on the 11 line. I can’t get past the great wins over UConn, Marquette and road wins at Providence and at Butler. Those wins were more impressive than the rest of the teams right on the cutline. The Pirates should feel far from safe but a strong finish down the stretch should get them in the field.
-Gonzaga was a very tough call for me this week. The win at Rupp nine days ago against Kentucky was enough to get one of the final spots in my bracket. If the Zags lose to anyone in the WCC Conference Tournament besides St. Mary’s, I think they will be on the wrong side of the bubble come selection Sunday.
-I hope everyone enjoys the final stretch run of the college hoops season. The Conference Tourney’s will be here in a few short weeks.
COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF
From Stalica:
– All but one of the teams listed in Dorman’s Top 16 mirror what the Selection Committee came up with in their interim Top 16 they released on Saturday. It was the right call to replace Wisconsin with Dayton after the Badgers continued their recent stumbles with a loss at Iowa over the weekend.
– Another team that really stumbled last week was South Carolina. They were blown out at Auburn and also suffered a surprising loss at home against LSU. I get that they now have two Tier 3 losses at home, but they have enough good things on their profile (win at Tennessee, win against Kentucky, for example) that dropping them down to the 8 line is pretty excessive. I think they’re about a 6 this week.
– I’m going to need to gargle a can of bleach for agreeing with Griggs, but I can’t justify Mississippi State being as high as a 9 right now. They’re a decent neutral court team, but their lack of true road wins (plus the loss against Southern at home) is too much to ignore in mid to late February. I still think they’re in the field, but they are far from safe.
– Indiana State picked a really bad week to fall off the wagon. A really bad week that included a loss at Southern Illinois and at home against Illinois State. I could have forgiven them for one strike out of those two, but not both. They have to win the auto bid now and frankly I’d have Drake in front of them right now (and certainly not above the bubble).
– We will go into further detail on tonight’s podcast, but we are at a point where we can no longer ignore a major surprise emerging in the American. The South Florida Bulls are literally on a rampage and have now won 11 straight games to take over first place in the conference standings. They have too many warts on their profile to justify an at-large selection, but I absolutely believe they are capable of winning the auto-bid on Selection Sunday and stealing an at-large bid away from a bubble team.
– As far as other Under the Radar conferences go, I admit I thought Morehead was a mortal lock to win the OVC regular season title. The rest of the pack is starting to catch up to them, and depending on whether or not they win at Western Illinois, there’s a chance they could fall as low as fourth place depending on how tiebreakers go in the OVC. I’d rather have Eastern Washington up on the 14 line and Morehead back down on the 15 line this week.
From Chad:
- Dorman’s bracket would mirror my own choices fairly closely, so I have very few bones to pick. I do think Oklahoma is a few lines too low. The Sooners did go 0-2 this week, but it was against Baylor and Kansas. They have still done enough at the top of their profile for me to have them in the top half of the bracket.
- I similarly would have Texas a few lines higher. The Big 12 is a complete gauntlet this season, and to have picked up three conference roads wins (TCU, Oklahoma and Cincinnati) is huge in my opinion. I would have the Longhorns close to or on the 7 line.
- I don’t understand Texas A&M. This team is now 15-10 with *4* Quad 3 losses. That screams NIT to me. I would have the Aggies OUT right now.
- I have long been a proponent of not putting a team in a Bracket Projection simply for being in first place in its conference. Instead, I prefer projecting the automatic bid winner as the team that I feel is the “best” team in the conference. I think Florida Atlantic is seeded right about where they belong by Dorman and, under my normal procedure, they should be slotted in as the auto bid winner from the American. However, I am willing to make an exception to my own rules. I would have South Florida in the field right now as the auto bid winner out of the American, and probably on the 12 line. I think the odds of an at-large bid are very, very small for the Bulls, but regardless of FAU having a better overall profile, this team is playing better than anyone in the AAC right now. They would likely be the favorites to win the conference tournament if it started tomorrow.