This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to put together the weekly bracket for Hoops HD. This is NOT to be confused with the bracket that Jon Teitel puts up every week where he attempts to guess the Selection Committee; rather this is who John feels should be in the bracket this week.
Note from John: Now before you look at the bracket below, I will offer a word of caution: I am envisioning a scenario where multiple teams end up winning their conference tournaments that are either on the bubble or outside of the bubble. So without further ado:
First Four Out: Butler, St. John’s, Pittsburgh, Villanova
Others considered: Richmond (at-large should it be needed), Michigan State, Ole Miss, Utah, Colorado, Memphis, Texas A&M, Oregon, Drake, SMU, James Madison
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– In this fictional scenario, I am envisioning the following teams winning their conference tournaments: Gonzaga (WCC), Richmond (A-10), UNLV (Mountain West) and South Florida (American). If I did a strictly traditional bracket. my last four IN would be Wake Forest, Butler, St. John’s and Pittsburgh. Gonzaga would be my last team above the First Four and my First Four Out would then be Villanova, Richmond/At-Large, Michigan State and Ole Miss.
– Last week, we talked about South Florida as a team that’s below the at-large cut line that’s been white hot and a team that is very capable of winning their league’s auto bid. I believe that one more win would clinch the outright regular-season title in the American and they will garner automatic consideration should that occur. We now have another major developing story in UNLV – the Runnin’ Rebels are currently in fifth place in the Mountain West and are 5-4 against Quad 1 foes. The reason they haven’t been mentioned as an at-large candidate this year is because they have 3 Quad 4 losses at home (including a home loss to Air Force in conference play). As an auto bid winner, they would be below the First Four but above auto bid teams like Indiana State, Samford, Grand Canyon, etc.
– Pittsburgh now has road wins against Duke, Virginia and NC State on their profile and are a respectable 11-9 against the Top 3 tiers. Their major strike against them is a nonconference SOS of 343 that would rival that of other teams on the Under Consideration board. They also have a pair of Tier 3 losses at home against Syracuse and Missouri (that may eventually be a Tier 4 loss). As bad as that is, I can stomach potentially putting them in a field over a team like Michigan State that is melting down at the wrong time. They just lost at home to an Ohio State team that hasn’t won a true road game in over a calendar year – I know that statistic alone would drive Griggs batshit crazy.
– Somewhere out there, Joby will be tearing his hair out when he sees seven (yes, seven) Mountain West teams in this field. This is with the presumption that UNLV wins the auto bid and a very clear possibility given that the conference tournament will be played in UNLV’s home arena, but not necessarily their home court.
– I could have easily had Washington State a seed line or two higher following their season sweep of Arizona, but they lost at Arizona State and fell out of a first-place tie in the Pac-12. The good news for the Cougars is they finish up Pac-12 play at home with their final 3 games against USC, UCLA and Washington. Arizona has to play 3 of their final 4 on the road (Arizona State, USC and UCLA) with only a home game against Oregon remaining.
COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF
From Chad:
– I am fine with John’s top 16 teams — the protected seeds. Although my personal order would be slightly different, and I may have had Auburn up there too, I can live with his choices. It is on the 5 line that I did a double take — Utah State is WAY overseeded here. The Aggies only have one win away from home against a tournament-caliber team, and that team (Boise State) is not even in the top half of the bracket. Utah State is more of an 8 seed than a 5.
– I understand that Washington State just lost at Arizona State. However, it was a true road game coming off their biggest win of the year (at Arizona). I honestly do not punish Wazzu much if at all for the loss to the Sun Devils. As a result, I think this team should be several seed lines higher than the 7 line.
– How can John love the Mountain West enough to have Utah State over-seeded and then have Colorado State under-seeded on the 10 line? Especially given that Colorado State does have a win away from home against a very good team (neutral court vs Creighton). The Rams may be struggling a bit lately, but this team deserves to be in the top half of the bracket.
– The bottom of any at-large list is looking so rough these days, that I have no major issue with John assuming a few bid thieves. Gonzaga doesn’t really even count as one, because I feel they are in with or without the auto bid. Neither South Florida nor Richmond are a stretch to steal bids either. But Assuming a UNLV bid steal in a deep Mountain West is a bit ridiculous to me. The Rebels are playing well, but, even in their home building, I don’t see them beating 3 tournament teams on three consecutive days to take the bid. This s why Michigan State, a team that despite faltering lately still has a better profile than any othr team that John even considered, should have been in his field.
– Finally, shame on John for putting Southern in as his SWAC champion and not Grambling. The Tigers are one game ahead of their rivals in the standings and swept the season series.
From David Griggs:
-I still think Dayton is being way overvalued, but Stalica is not overvaluing by quite as much as many others, so I guess I’ll have to accept that.
-I think I would still have Arizona on the #1 line, but I get it. North Carolina has also had an incredible year and the case for them is very strong.
-I’m also a big fan of Clemson on the #4 line. I know that they’ve had some losses that protected seeds should not lose, but they have enough really good wins to warrant a protected seed.
Bracketology – Staff Bracket (Monday, February 26th)
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to put together the weekly bracket for Hoops HD. This is NOT to be confused with the bracket that Jon Teitel puts up every week where he attempts to guess the Selection Committee; rather this is who John feels should be in the bracket this week.
Note from John: Now before you look at the bracket below, I will offer a word of caution: I am envisioning a scenario where multiple teams end up winning their conference tournaments that are either on the bubble or outside of the bubble. So without further ado:
First Four Out: Butler, St. John’s, Pittsburgh, Villanova
Others considered: Richmond (at-large should it be needed), Michigan State, Ole Miss, Utah, Colorado, Memphis, Texas A&M, Oregon, Drake, SMU, James Madison
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– In this fictional scenario, I am envisioning the following teams winning their conference tournaments: Gonzaga (WCC), Richmond (A-10), UNLV (Mountain West) and South Florida (American). If I did a strictly traditional bracket. my last four IN would be Wake Forest, Butler, St. John’s and Pittsburgh. Gonzaga would be my last team above the First Four and my First Four Out would then be Villanova, Richmond/At-Large, Michigan State and Ole Miss.
– Last week, we talked about South Florida as a team that’s below the at-large cut line that’s been white hot and a team that is very capable of winning their league’s auto bid. I believe that one more win would clinch the outright regular-season title in the American and they will garner automatic consideration should that occur. We now have another major developing story in UNLV – the Runnin’ Rebels are currently in fifth place in the Mountain West and are 5-4 against Quad 1 foes. The reason they haven’t been mentioned as an at-large candidate this year is because they have 3 Quad 4 losses at home (including a home loss to Air Force in conference play). As an auto bid winner, they would be below the First Four but above auto bid teams like Indiana State, Samford, Grand Canyon, etc.
– Pittsburgh now has road wins against Duke, Virginia and NC State on their profile and are a respectable 11-9 against the Top 3 tiers. Their major strike against them is a nonconference SOS of 343 that would rival that of other teams on the Under Consideration board. They also have a pair of Tier 3 losses at home against Syracuse and Missouri (that may eventually be a Tier 4 loss). As bad as that is, I can stomach potentially putting them in a field over a team like Michigan State that is melting down at the wrong time. They just lost at home to an Ohio State team that hasn’t won a true road game in over a calendar year – I know that statistic alone would drive Griggs batshit crazy.
– Somewhere out there, Joby will be tearing his hair out when he sees seven (yes, seven) Mountain West teams in this field. This is with the presumption that UNLV wins the auto bid and a very clear possibility given that the conference tournament will be played in UNLV’s home arena, but not necessarily their home court.
– I could have easily had Washington State a seed line or two higher following their season sweep of Arizona, but they lost at Arizona State and fell out of a first-place tie in the Pac-12. The good news for the Cougars is they finish up Pac-12 play at home with their final 3 games against USC, UCLA and Washington. Arizona has to play 3 of their final 4 on the road (Arizona State, USC and UCLA) with only a home game against Oregon remaining.
COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF
From Chad:
– I am fine with John’s top 16 teams — the protected seeds. Although my personal order would be slightly different, and I may have had Auburn up there too, I can live with his choices. It is on the 5 line that I did a double take — Utah State is WAY overseeded here. The Aggies only have one win away from home against a tournament-caliber team, and that team (Boise State) is not even in the top half of the bracket. Utah State is more of an 8 seed than a 5.
– I understand that Washington State just lost at Arizona State. However, it was a true road game coming off their biggest win of the year (at Arizona). I honestly do not punish Wazzu much if at all for the loss to the Sun Devils. As a result, I think this team should be several seed lines higher than the 7 line.
– How can John love the Mountain West enough to have Utah State over-seeded and then have Colorado State under-seeded on the 10 line? Especially given that Colorado State does have a win away from home against a very good team (neutral court vs Creighton). The Rams may be struggling a bit lately, but this team deserves to be in the top half of the bracket.
– The bottom of any at-large list is looking so rough these days, that I have no major issue with John assuming a few bid thieves. Gonzaga doesn’t really even count as one, because I feel they are in with or without the auto bid. Neither South Florida nor Richmond are a stretch to steal bids either. But Assuming a UNLV bid steal in a deep Mountain West is a bit ridiculous to me. The Rebels are playing well, but, even in their home building, I don’t see them beating 3 tournament teams on three consecutive days to take the bid. This s why Michigan State, a team that despite faltering lately still has a better profile than any othr team that John even considered, should have been in his field.
– Finally, shame on John for putting Southern in as his SWAC champion and not Grambling. The Tigers are one game ahead of their rivals in the standings and swept the season series.
From David Griggs:
-I still think Dayton is being way overvalued, but Stalica is not overvaluing by quite as much as many others, so I guess I’ll have to accept that.
-I think I would still have Arizona on the #1 line, but I get it. North Carolina has also had an incredible year and the case for them is very strong.
-I’m also a big fan of Clemson on the #4 line. I know that they’ve had some losses that protected seeds should not lose, but they have enough really good wins to warrant a protected seed.