Conference Tourney Previews, Part 2 of 2

HoopsHD keeps celebrating the greatest time of the year with the 2nd part of our preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel continues our coverage with his predictions for the 17 conference tourneys getting underway this week/weekend. Tweet us if you have any comments, and if you missed his picks last week concerning the 15 other conference tourneys you can find them at: https://hoopshd.com/2024/03/04/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-2-9

AAC tourney predicted champ: South Florida (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-17
Location: Fort Worth, TX
2023 tourney champ: Memphis (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Houston has been in title game each year since 2018
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
Houston has been contending for this title for the past 6 years…but there will be no lucky #7 for the Cougars as they have moved on to the Big 12. I normally do not like new coaches, and it is hard to believe that Coach Amir Abdur-Rahim won exactly ONE game in his debut season at Kennesaw State in 2020. However, after seeing him win 3 straight Atlantic Sun tourney games last March by single digits he proved that he knows how to survive and advance, and after watching him tie the school record for victories in 1 season by winning 21 of his past 23 games with only a pair of single-digit losses, he has made me a believer. The biggest concern is that the 1 thing they are great at is the 1 thing that they cannot control: their 67.5 FT% allowed is #8 in the nation.

A-10 tourney predicted champ: Loyola Chicago (#2 seed)
Dates: March 12-17
Location: Brooklyn, NY
2023 tourney champ: VCU (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs in past 7 tourneys
Seeding: only 2 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
This tourney has had 7 different champs in the past 7 tourneys so Loyola is the pick for those of you who believe that 8 is enough. I thought Dayton had this trophy wrapped up a month ago when they started 19-3, but after losing 3 of their final 8 games the only thing consistent about the Flyers is that damn song that Chad plays every week! Top-2 seeds have not fared well here in the past but Coach Drew Valentine has gotten his team hot at the right time, winning 17 of its final 20 games. They have great interior defense (43.4 2P% allowed is #4 in the nation), a desire for revenge after a 2-PT loss to Richmond on January 9th, and the power of a higher power courtesy of…Sister Jean!

ACC tourney predicted champ: North Carolina (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Washington, DC
2023 tourney champ: Duke (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were not top-2 seed
If you like a conference where the 2 best teams are in-state rivals who hate each other…then this is the tourney for you. Defending champ Duke started out 5-3 but has won 19 of their next 22 regular season games before getting swept by the Tar Heels. UNC started out 7-3 but have won 18 of their final 21, so while it is a bit of a coin-flip at the top the sweeper has the edge. This tourney has not been kind to top-2 seeds, but it has also not been kind to defending champs, and since the Tar Heels have not won this title since 2016 they get the nod. Often viewed as an offensive juggernaut who spends 40 minutes running a fast-break, Coach Hubert Davis has ratcheted up the defense this year as his squad is top-40 in the nation in both 2P% allowed/3P% allowed. They have a dominant scoring duo in SRs RJ Davis/Armando Bacot, and after losing the NCAA title game in 2022 and missing out on the entire NCAA tourney in 2023 they are hungry to finish their careers on a high note in 2024.

Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Houston (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Kansas City, MO
2023 tourney champ: Texas (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2013 are Iowa State/Kansas/Texas
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were top-3 seed
The only 3 winners of this tourney since 2013 are Iowa State/Kansas/Texas, but after watching the Cougars obliterate Kansas by 30 PTS last Saturday in a revenge game it is impossible to bet against them. While 4 of the past 5 champs in this league were top-3 seeds, #2-seed Iowa State and #3-seed Baylor are both limping into the postseason due to losses in their regular season finales. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s defensive efficiency is #1 in the nation, their 56.9 PPG allowed is #1 in the nation, and he has a transfer in LJ Cryer who knows a thing or 2 about winning games in March after taking home the 2021 NCAA title at Baylor.

Big East tourney predicted champ: Connecticut (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-16
Location: New York, NY
2023 tourney champ: Marquette (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Villanova has won 5 of past 8 tourneys
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
If Georgetown wins this 1 then I might just have to hang up the old keyboard because it means I know absolutely nothing about this sport. I did not think it was possible for UConn to improve on last year’s championship season, especially after losing 3 sensational starters in Jordan Hawkins/Andre Jackson/Adama Sanogo, but Coach Dan Hurley has incorporated grad transfers like Cam Spencer and fantastic freshmen like Stephon Castle to create a serious threat to go back-to-back. They have balanced scoring with all 5 starters in double-digits, size in the paint in the form of 7’2” Donovan Clingan, and a veteran PG in Tristen Newton who is a triple-double threat every time he steps onto the court. Hurley has pointed out that the only 2 teams to win 2 in a row in the past half-century (Duke in 1992/Florida in 2007) did so in large part by returning most of their core players. If the Huskies can get it done next month with a revamped roster then Hurley will deserve all the credit in the world…even though I still will not cheer for his brother.

Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Purdue (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-17
Location: Minneapolis, MN
2023 tourney champ: Purdue (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
Coach Matt Painter has certainly stubbed his toe on more than 1 occasion in the NCAA tourney but he was good enough to win this conference tourney last year and has enough talent to do it again even though this tourney does not like repeat champs. What it DOES like is top-2 seeds, and since the Boilers swept the Illini this year they have to be considered the heavy favorite. Purdue has great 3-PT shooting (41.1% is #2 in the nation) and they have the best player in the country in Zach Edey. I still do not think they will make the Final 4 in April…but they are looking unbeatable in March.

Big West tourney predicted champ: UC-Irvine (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-16
Location: Henderson, NV
2023 tourney champ: UCSB (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Fullerton has made title game 4 times in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
Fullerton has made this title game 4 times in the past 5 tourneys but I am not picking them this year…since they finished 10th in the league and will not be participating this week. On the other end of the standings, Coach Russell Turner followed up last year’s 23-win season with a 24-win season (and counting) this year. The Anteaters are great on both ends of the court: when you are top-35 in the nation in shooting on both offense (47.7%) and defense (40.6% allowed) you are going to win a lot of games, which they did. They also start 3 seniors/2 juniors so the players will not get frazzled if things are not going their way.

C-USA tourney predicted champ: Sam Houston (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Huntsville, AL
2023 tourney champ: FAU (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 tourneys
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
5 of the past 7 champs in this league were top-2 seeds, and Louisiana Tech was looking good all year long until losing at home to Sam Houston last Thursday. The Bearkats have a new coach in Chris Mudge, a new league after realigning from the WAC, and a heck of a 2024 (going 14-3 since New Year’s Day after starting the year 6-8. Since stubbing their toes with back-to-back losses at FIU/Jacksonville State in early-February they have won 7 in a row and have all the momentum you could ask for. I thought this team was 1 year away because 5 of their top-6 scorers are juniors but it has been clicking so far. This tourney has had 6 different champs in a row so here is hoping they make it 7-for-7.

Ivy tourney predicted champ: Princeton (#1 seed)
Dates: March 16-17
Location: New York, NY
2023 tourney champ: Princeton (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 teams to ever win tourney are Penn/Princeton/Yale
Seeding: each of 5 all-time champs were top-2 seed
The only 3 teams to ever win this tourney are Penn/Princeton/Yale, but due to my Quakers having a God-awful 18-loss season we will just have to see if our win over Villanova gets old (spoiler: it does not). Each of the 5 all-time Ivy champs were a top-2 seed so that would seem to narrow it down to the Tigers and the Bulldogs, who split their season series. Yale faded down the stretch by losing 3 of their final 6 games, while Princeton has only lost 3 games all season. The X-factor is that Coach Mitch Henderson will not panic if it goes down to the wire since his team’s 80.9 FT% is #2 in the nation. If the Tigers do win this tourney, I wonder how they will do in the NCAA tourney…since any memories I have of them from last year’s NCAA tourney are escaping me at the moment.

MAAC tourney predicted champ: Quinnipiac (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
2023 tourney champ: Iona (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Iona has won 6 of past 7 tourneys
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
Iona has won this tourney 6 of the past 7 times it was played…but I am just not feeling it this year after they lost 10 games in league play. 3 of the past 4 champs were a top-2 seed and the top-2 in this league (Quinnipiac/Fairfield) split their season series this year. The Bobcats had a weird conference season: they started 11-1, then lost 4 straight to finish February, but have bounced back with 4 straight wins in March. Quinnipiac coach Tom Pecora had not been a head coach since 2015, but after spending the past 6 years as an assistant in Hamden he has a very good feel for his current roster. If it is a close game then the good news is that their 78.4 FT% is top-15 in the nation.

MAC tourney predicted champ: Ohio (#3 seed)
Dates: March 14-16
Location: Cleveland, OH
2023 tourney champ: Kent State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 tourneys
Seeding: each of past 3 champs were not #1 seed
This tourney is often not won by the team at the top of the standings, and after watching Toledo lose 4 games in February I am leaning toward Ohio. The Bobcats should have some decent crowd support while playing in their home state, especially now that they have turned things around on the court. Ohio had a losing record in late-January but won 10 of their final 12 games to clinch the #3 seed. It is comforting to rely on a veteran backcourt come tourney time and Coach Jeff Boals has a pair of SRs in Jaylin Hunter/Shereef Mitchell who are also his 2 leading scorers. If his team can keep making 3s and not turning the ball over then they will be in good shape.

MEAC tourney predicted champ: Norfolk State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-16
Location: Norfolk, VA
2023 tourney champ: Howard (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Norfolk State has made title game in each of past 4 tourneys
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
Sometimes you have to do a deep dive to figure out who should win 1 of these things and sometimes everything quickly falls into place. Norfolk State has made the title game for 4 years in a row, they are the top seed, and this tourney is in their home city (where they did not lose a game all season): what am I missing?! Coach Robert Jones also has his team playing its best when it counts the most: they were 10-8 in early-January but won 11 of their final 13 games. Their leading scorer even has the initials “JT” (Jamarii Thomas) so if I can give the rest of the league 1 piece of advice it would be FEAR THE SPARTANS!

MWC tourney predicted champ: Nevada (#2 seed)
Dates: March 13-16
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2023 tourney champ: San Diego State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: San Diego State has made title game each of past 6 years
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were top-2 seed
Defending champ San Diego State has made this title game each of the past 6 years so if you can find a more dangerous #5-seed then good luck. The Aztecs are a big reason that 7 of the past 8 winners of this tourney were a top-2 seed, which you might think is irrelevant this year because there are like 7 different teams who could win this 1, but I think Nevada is somehow flying under the radar despite being the #2-seed. Their only non-conference loss (to Drake on December 9th) is looking better than ever, and after starting league play 6-5 they finished strong by winning each of their final 7 games. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford won an NCAA tourney as a player at Indiana and won conference tourneys as a coach in the Big 10/MWC/Pac-12. As you might expect from a coach who was a renowned long-distance shooter, his team lives by the 3 on both ends of the court, as they are top-40 in the nation in both 3P% and 3P% allowed.

Pac-12 predicted champ: Arizona (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-16
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2023 tourney champ: Arizona (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2015 are Arizona/Oregon/Oregon State
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
Of course I am biased, but my defending champion Wildcats have played great down the stretch while the other top-2 seed (Washington State) has lost to both the Wildcats’ in-state rival (ASU) as well as their own in-state rival (Washington). The only 3 teams to win this tourney since 2015 are Arizona/Oregon/Oregon State, so even though the Cougars swept my boys during the regular season, I do not think there will be a 3-peat in the last-ever tourney this league ever hosts. Arizona’s offense is national-championship-caliber (top-10 in the nation with 90.3 PPG/49.6 FG%/43.1 RPG/19.1 APG), so as long as their defense is mediocre or better then they will be that rarest of specimens: someone who comes home from Vegas as a winner!

SEC predicted champ: Tennessee (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-17
Location: Nashville, TN
2023 tourney champ: Alabama (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
This tourney likes top-2 seeds and is in the Vols’ home state so I voluntarily pick them to win it. Much like Matt Painter, Coach Rick Barnes has been underwhelming in the NCAA tourney, but he won this tourney in 2022 and might have an even stronger squad in 2024. In contrast to Arizona, Tennessee has a defense that is national-championship-caliber (top-25 in the nation with 38.3 FG% allowed/30.6 3P% allowed/11.2 APG allowed), so as long as their offense is mediocre or better then they will be that next-rarest of specimens: someone who comes home from Nash-Vegas as a winner!

SWAC predicted champ: Texas Southern (#3 seed)
Dates: March 13-16
Location: Birmingham, AL
2023 tourney champ: Texas Southern (#8 seed)
Fun fact: Texas Southern has won 7 of past 9 tourneys
Seeding: each of past 3 champs were not #1 seed
I am done picking anyone other than the Tigers. I know that Coach Johnny Jones had an 0-8 start to the year…and had several conference losses to teams outside the top-300…and has an atrocious offense. What he ALSO has is a team that has emerged victorious in 7 of the past 9 times this tourney has been played, and the comfort of knowing that each of the past 3 champs were not a #1 seed. Each of Texas Southern’s top-4 scorers are seniors so they have plenty of veteran leadership, and they split the season series with each of the other top-4 seeds. Death, taxes, and the Tigers in this tourney.

WAC predicted champ: Grand Canyon (#1 seed)
Dates: March 13-16
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2023 tourney champ: GCU (#5 seed)
Fun fact: GCU has made title game in 4 of past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
The defending champ won this tourney last year as a #5 seed so they have to be considered a heavy favorite now that they are the #1-seed. Coach Bryce Drew has only lost 4 games all year but 2 of them were back-to-back in late-February so hopefully that served as a pair of teachable moments. They have great interior defense (43.9 2P% allowed is top-10 in the nation), and there is no more consistent lineup in the universe as they have had the same starting 5 (Tyon Grant-Foster/Ray Harrison/Gabe McGlothan/Collin Moore/Duke Brennan) in every single game all season long. They get to the FT line with ease (24.1 FTA is top-10 in the nation) and they can block a shot or 5 (5.4 BPG is top-10 in the nation) so let’s Lopes up!