Bracket Tactics: HoopsHD provides some tips for surviving and advancing

The best week of the year is finally here! This is the time when we ponder the impact of geography, the importance of having a veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!

TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Duke (lost to NC State in the ACC tourney quarterfinals)/Creighton (lost to Providence in the Big East tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.

TIP #2: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland/Utah State coach Danny Sprinkle.

TIP #3: Since UNLV from the Big West won it all in 1990, 31 of the past 32 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn from the AAC in 2014): ACC (11), SEC (6), Big East (8), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (2), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the MWC/WCC to win it all.

TIP #4: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Arizona (Tommy Lloyd has 2 prior tourney appearances)/BYU (Mark Pope has 1 prior tourney appearance) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.

TIP #5: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You must play the best to learn how to beat the best so you might want to stay away from St. Mary’s (SOS: 80)/Dayton (SOS: 82).

TIP #6: There are 5 active coaches who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect John Calipari of Kentucky (73.1%)/Bill Self of Kansas (71.8%) to be catching an early flight home.

TIP #7: There are 6 schools who have won at least 85% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Auburn (11-1)/North Carolina (32-2) are near-automatic in their opening games.

TIP #8: There are 8 schools who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (19-4) is looking good vs. the Dayton-Nevada winner if they can win their 1st round game, and if not then Long Beach State (4-1) is not a bad alternative.

TIP #9: There are 6 schools who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Florida (9-2) has played great in their Sweet 16 games so Marquette should beware.

TIP #10: There are 10 schools who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on some of the best seeds in case either Houston (6-1)/North Carolina (21-8) can make it to the 2nd weekend.

TIP #11: There are 9 schools who have won at least 60% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: UConn is 5-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the East Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.

TIP #12: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Clemson (2023 NIT)/Wisconsin (2023 NIT) are certainly ready for primetime…but might not be ready to go all the way.

TIP #13: There are 7 schools who have won at least 85% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: How excited is Houston (6-1 in the state of Texas) that the South Region is in Dallas?!

TIP #14: There are 10 schools who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Kansas because even though they did not win the Big 12 tourney they still have a terrific track record when they do not get an automatic bid (58-24).

TIP #15: BYU has played in the most NCAA tournaments (30) without ever making the Final 4.
STRATEGY: If the Cougars could not reach the Final 4 with Danny Ainge/Jimmer Fredette then they will probably not make it with this year’s squad.

TIP #16: Since 1988 only 3 champs have not been a top-3 seed (#4 AZ in 1997, #7 CT in 2014, #4 CT in 2023)
STRATEGY: Alabama/Auburn might be nice sleeper picks but the odds are against them winning it all.

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