The best week of the year is finally here! This is the time when we ponder the impact of geography, the importance of having a veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Duke (lost to NC State in the ACC tourney quarterfinals)/Creighton (lost to Providence in the Big East tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland/Utah State coach Danny Sprinkle.
TIP #3: Since UNLV from the Big West won it all in 1990, 31 of the past 32 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn from the AAC in 2014): ACC (11), SEC (6), Big East (8), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (2), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the MWC/WCC to win it all.
TIP #4: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Arizona (Tommy Lloyd has 2 prior tourney appearances)/BYU (Mark Pope has 1 prior tourney appearance) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #5: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You must play the best to learn how to beat the best so you might want to stay away from St. Mary’s (SOS: 80)/Dayton (SOS: 82).
TIP #6: There are 5 active coaches who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect John Calipari of Kentucky (73.1%)/Bill Self of Kansas (71.8%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #7: There are 6 schools who have won at least 85% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Auburn (11-1)/North Carolina (32-2) are near-automatic in their opening games.
TIP #8: There are 8 schools who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (19-4) is looking good vs. the Dayton-Nevada winner if they can win their 1st round game, and if not then Long Beach State (4-1) is not a bad alternative.
TIP #9: There are 6 schools who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Florida (9-2) has played great in their Sweet 16 games so Marquette should beware.
TIP #10: There are 10 schools who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on some of the best seeds in case either Houston (6-1)/North Carolina (21-8) can make it to the 2nd weekend.
TIP #11: There are 9 schools who have won at least 60% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: UConn is 5-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the East Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #12: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Clemson (2023 NIT)/Wisconsin (2023 NIT) are certainly ready for primetime…but might not be ready to go all the way.
TIP #13: There are 7 schools who have won at least 85% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: How excited is Houston (6-1 in the state of Texas) that the South Region is in Dallas?!
TIP #14: There are 10 schools who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Kansas because even though they did not win the Big 12 tourney they still have a terrific track record when they do not get an automatic bid (58-24).
TIP #15: BYU has played in the most NCAA tournaments (30) without ever making the Final 4.
STRATEGY: If the Cougars could not reach the Final 4 with Danny Ainge/Jimmer Fredette then they will probably not make it with this year’s squad.
TIP #16: Since 1988 only 3 champs have not been a top-3 seed (#4 AZ in 1997, #7 CT in 2014, #4 CT in 2023)
STRATEGY: Alabama/Auburn might be nice sleeper picks but the odds are against them winning it all.