Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Monday, Nov 4th: THE SEASON OPENER!!!

NEWS AND NOTES:

-HAPPY COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON EVERYBODY!!!! There are 199 games today! That makes today the busiest day of the whole season! Quite honestly, well over 170 of them will likely be complete crap. The tendency for most schools is to ease into their season, and to sort of eat their desserts first before getting to the real meat and potatoes of their schedule. The result is a lot of crap games to kick things off, which I do not feel is the best thing for the sport when the opening night consists of 170+ crap games. But, there are a few decent games, including a top-ten matchup!

-It is important to remember that every team is starting off at zero. Even some of the preseason metrics that have a preseason rating will phase out any preseason data and by the 10th game or so will only be using data from this season. It is a 355-way tie for 1st place right now!! All the analysis below is nothing more than my own personal supposition, so take that for what it is worth: not even I think it is worth all that much.

-It is also important to remember that the committee evaluates every game on every night of the season pretty much the same. A tier-1 win on opening night impacts the metrics and shows up on the team sheet just the same as a tier-1 win in late February. So, these early games all matter and they all count. I think the biggest reason Virginia was selected for the NCAA Tournament last year is because they managed an out of conference win away from home against a team that was inside the bubble (Florida) and no one else on the bubble really did. That win came on just the fourth day of the season. James Madison’s big win against Michigan State came on the very first night of the season. So, these early games (and this year they are EXCEPTIONALLY early) still mean just as much as the games that are played at any point in the year. They all count the same in the metrics and they all appear the same on the Team Sheets

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-IU COLUMBUS (nonD1) AT IU INDY. The only reason we highlight this game is because it is the first official tip off of the season that involves a D1 team.

-CHARLESTON VS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (Field of 68 Showcase – Sioux Falls SD). This is a very liberal use of the word “Showcase”…but it is a somewhat interesting match-up. Chris Mack takes over at Charleston and has a chance to get what may at least be a somewhat notable win away from home to start things off.

-SAINT LOUIS VS SANTA CLARA (Field of 68 Showcase – Sioux Falls SD). I really like this Saint Louis team, and if you liked Indiana State a year ago you should like them too. Santa Clara is actually expected to make some noise in the WCC this year, so this is a really good early-season test for them as well. On a day where most of the games are complete crap, this looks like it may actually be a good one!

-MCNEESE VS SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Field of 68 Showcase – Sioux Falls SD). McNeese is probably a legit top-40-caliber team. The problem is they just do not get that many opportunities for the kinds of big wins that would impress the committee, so their margin for error when it comes to landing inside the bubble is razor-thin. South Dakota State appears to be down this year, but playing them at the Pentagon is still tougher than playing a home buy game like many other top-40ish teams are doing today.

-MIAMI OH AT APPALACHIAN STATE. I highlight this not so much because I expect either team to be anywhere near the bubble at the end of the season, but because I think it might actually be a halfway-decent game. This is also one of a dozen games being played today in the first of two rounds of the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge (Round 2 coming in January).

-TEXAS A&M AT UCF. We are really big on this TAMU team this year and think they can end up as a protected seed. They are the road team, and they are playing a UCF team that does at least have a bit of a pulse, so you cannot call this an automatic win for the Aggies, but it still one that you would expect them to win. Starting off the season with a true road win is better than starting off with a blah home-buy-game win.

-TOLEDO AT TROY. Another interesting game on a night where there simply are not very many. I do not think either team will wind up inside the bubble, but both should do very well in their conferences: I think Troy is a darkhorse in the Sun Belt this year. This game is also part of the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.

-OHIO U AT JAMES MADISON. If you ask me to guess whether or not Ohio U will end the season inside the bubble, my guess would be that they will not. Having said that, I do at least think their chances of doing it are far greater than zero, and this would actually be a really nice road win on their resume. James Madison has undergone a substantial roster overhaul, but they are still good and are still likely to win most of their games at home, so if Ohio U can beat them on their floor the committee will notice that. This game is also part of the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.

-INDIANA STATE AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC. Both teams are coming off very strong runs in recent years, especially FAU, but both teams have also been completely gutted and are now tasked with rebuilding almost from scratch.

-VERMONT AT UAB. Vermont is the likely America East frontrunner and while this is a very difficult road game, it is not beyond their capabilities to win it. UAB is a team that we think is a top-40 caliber team, but one of their issues appears to be their schedule. They just do not play anybody, which basically means any game they lose will look very damaging. Will they look like a top-40 team on paper come March given what their schedule is?

-WICHITA STATE AT WESTERN KENTUCKY. Wichita State is looking to make a huge improvement this season, and they are starting out on the road against a WKU team that is very talented. This is a really good opener and a good opportunity for both teams.

-QUINNIPIAC AT YALE. An odd game to highlight, but it is a fun in-state match-up between two teams that are expected to do well in their conferences, so…why not?

-MISSOURI AT MEMPHIS. Expectations are not all that high for Mizzou this year. Memphis is talented, but the question for them is can they play up to their potential? They should be able to win this one at home tonight.

-LIPSCOMB AT DUQUESNE. This is a road game that Lipscomb may be able to win. Duquesne had a fantastic run last year, but is faced with a complete rebuild and will be challenged right out of the gate tonight against a Lipscomb team that is expected to finish atop the ASun.

-SOUTH FLORIDA VS FLORIDA (Jacksonville FL). South Florida had a very special season last year, and are beginning this year with heavy hearts as they will take the floor after the sudden passing of Amir Abdur-Rahim. The Gators look like they can be a solid NCAA Tournament-caliber team and should be able to start things off with a win in this one.

-TEXAS VS OHIO STATE (Hall of Fame Series – Las Vegas NV). Expectations are really high for Texas this year and they start things off with a bit of a test against an Ohio State team that is picked to finish around the middle of the Big Ten and could end up making a push for the bubble. While expectations are not as high for the Buckeyes, winning this game will certainly put a big spotlight on them right out of the gate, so it is a good opportunity for both teams.

-TOWSON AT SAINT MARY’S. This is a buy game, and the final result will likely resemble it, but Towson is at least projected to be a conference frontrunner in the CAA, so they likely will not be complete pushover and may be able to play with the Gaels and make it somewhat interesting.

-CHATTANOOGA AT USC. Another buy game, but USC will want to be on upset alert. Chattanooga is one of the stronger teams in the SoCon, and while USC should win this one, they will not if they just completely overlook them.

-BAYLOR AT GONZAGA. A huge game to finish off the night!! After a long day of mostly one-sided affairs, we get a solid match-up between two top-ten teams to close things out!! I think Baylor is a likely protected seed, but Gonzaga is a potential #1 seed/Final Four caliber team, and given that they are playing at home the Zags should win this. But, it is still a great opportunity to get a massive win that will most likely mean a lot come March when the committee evaluates both these teams, and it is a great early season showcase for the fans! Teams have more to gain and less to lose by opening in a game like this instead of opening against a team they got off the pastry cart. For a list of all those games, check out what’s below..

NOTABLE BUY GAMES (or games that might as well be):

-Denver @ Stanford
-Valparaiso vs Liberty – I am not that big on the Flames this year, but some at Hoops HD liked them
-TAMUCC @ Purdue – TAMUCC should do well in the Southland, but they are overmatched today
-Fordham @ Saint John’s
-Missouri State @ Butler
-Maine @ Duke
-Gardner Webb @ Tennessee
-Arkansas Pine Bluff @ Cincinnati
-Wright State @ Kentucky – Mark Pope’s first regular season game as Kentucky’s coach
-Monmouth @ Michigan State
-SC Upstate @ NC State
-New Hampshire @ UMass – UMass may be able to make some noise in the A-10 this year
-Saint Francis U @ Dayton
-NC Central @ George Mason
-Radford @ Pittsburgh
-Fairleigh Dickinson @ Miami FL
-Northern Kentucky @ Florida State
-Central Connecticut @ Providence – CCSU is likely the NEC frontrunner, but is overmatched today
-North Florida @ South Carolina
-Manhattan @ Maryland
-Robert Morris @ West Virginia – Darian DeVries’s first game as WVU’s coach
-Le Moyne @ Syracuse
-Iona @ Princeton – We really like this Princeton team and think they can end up in the top-40 and inside the bubble
-Morehead State @ Louisville
-Charleston Southern @ Clemson
-Bellarmine @ VCU
-Navy @ Saint Joseph’s
-York (nonD1) @ Drake
-Texas Southern @ Xavier
-Saint Peter’s @ Seton Hall
-Binghamton @ Penn State
-West Georgia @ Mississippi State – Welcome to D1 West Georgia!!
-Tennessee Tech @ Georgia
-Howard @ Kansas
-Jackson State @ Houston
-Mississippi Valley State @ Iowa State
-UMES @ Vanderbilt
-SEMO @ Bradley – Bradley is the MVC favorite this year
-Mercyhurst @ George Washington – Welcome to D1 Mercyhurst!
-Lafayette @ Villanova
-Holy Cross @ Wisconsin
-Lehigh @ Northwestern
-TAMU Commerce @ Iowa
-UTRGV @ Nebraska
-Cleveland State @ Michigan
-Eastern Illinois @ Illinois
-Florida A&M @ TCU
-Delaware State @ Virginia Tech
-Coppin State @ Wake Forest
-Stony Brook @ Marquette
-Long Island @ Ole Miss
-Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago
-Tarleton State @ SMU
-UNC Asheville @ Alabama
-Elon @ North Carolina
-Lindenwood @ Oklahoma
-Cal State Fullerton @ Grand Canyon
-Nicholls @ New Mexico
-Alcorn State @ Utah
-Green Bay @ Oklahoma State
-Eastern Washington @ Colorado – This would have been a great game a season ago
-North Dakota @ Colorado State
-Canisius @ Arizona
-Rider @ UCLA
-UC Riverside @ Oregon – UCR should be strong in the Big West, but is probably overmatched tonight
-Chapman (nonD1) @ UC Irvine
-Portland State @ Washington State
-Alabama State @ UNLV
-Cal State Bakersfield @ California – CS Bakersfield may actually be able to win this one