This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly Hoops HD Staff Bracket. This is NOT a forecast of what the field will be come March, but merely a checkpoint as to what teams have accomplished at this point.
And here is the bracket below:
First Four Out: Arizona State, Nebraska, Xavier, Wake Forest
Worth A Look: BYU, SMU, North Texas, UC-San Diego, Bradley, George Mason, Indiana
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– Auburn and Duke are entrenched in the top 2 seeds right now, but Alabama still has a potential path to get even higher. Iowa State had a tough loss at Arizona on Monday, and Alabama is coming off of a win at Mississippi State earlier this week. Duke might have to potentially run the table in the ACC to remain on the 1-line if top-tier teams in the SEC continue to beat top-notch competition within the conference.
– Maryland has gone from a team that was potentially near the cut line to a team that is now fighting for a Top-4 seed. Wins over UCLA, Wisconsin along with road wins at Illinois and Indiana are helping immensely.
– Connecticut has been leaking oil ever since the Liam McNeeley injury, but he should be back in the lineup shortly for the Huskies. Woe to whatever #1 seed draws them in the 2nd round if a seed like this holds up for the Huskies. (And imagine a road to the Final Four for Duke potentially going through UConn, Maryland AND North Carolina)
– While there is a concerted effort by the Selection Committee to keep teams close to Dayton after their First Four games, the presence of Ohio State in a First Four is really problematic with three B1G teams on the 6-line. I do not foresee the committee bumping the OSU/Carolina winner down a seedline just to keep them close to home.
– There are a few other potential home court disadvantages that altered a few matchups: I kept Yale out of the Providence subregion and I also had to keep Cleveland State out of Cleveland against Tennessee. (Keep in mind that the MAC (not Cleveland State) is the host school this year.) Morehead State is also another team that was not potentially placed in Lexington given that they’re only about 60 miles away – it wouldn’t have prevented them from playing a team like Louisville or Tennessee, but Auburn/Alabama might be a bridge too far.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’m a little surprised that there isn’t more love for Clemson. I know their profile doesn’t top out that high, but the way they’ve been playing seems to indicate they’d be a few lines higher than an 8 seed.
-UC Irvine on the 12 line is probably where the real committee would have them, but I actually like them a little more than that. I would have them around the 10 line or so.
-Saint Mary’s on the 9 line is interesting. I think they’re a lot better than that, but also get that their profile doesn’t show it. At least not yet. I think they’ll move up quite a bit between now and March.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
-I agree with Stalica’s protected seeds, but I think there is a strong case to move Houston up to the 2 line (they are 9-0 in Big 12 play) and maybe Iowa State down there as well. The Florida Gators would be my fourth #1 seed as of today — but given the way the SEC is stacked, that may change in less than 24 hours.
-I had championed a solid seed for West Virginia earlier in the year, but I am no longer on that bandwagon. The Mountaineers have lost 3 straight. including games to Arizona State and Kansas State. This team is sinking fast, down to only 7-7 against the top 3 tiers and 5-7 against the top 2. They may deserve to be in the 7/10 game, but should probably be the 10 seed.
-Clemson, on the other hand, I believe to be way under-seeded by Stalica. The Tigers are 17-4 overall and 11-4 against the top three tiers. They really do not have any bad losses, and their win over Kentucky is looking better and better by the day. I would have them several seed lines higher.
-I agree with Griggs (begrudgingly) that St Mary’s should be seeded higher. There may not be any GREAT wins on their profile, but this team looks like one of the top 20, and maybe even one of the top 16, teams in the nation when I watch them play.
-North Carolina does not deserve to be in the field right now. Several teams that Stalica left out simply have better profiles, including Arizona State, Wake Forest, BYU, and (I would even argue) North Texas. That entire list is a coin flip in my mind, and I would probably choose Arizona State today, but I do not even believe the Tar Heels are even among the top four teams out right now. They have one win against a tournament team and 9 losses overall. 9-9 against the top three tiers and only 5-9 against the top two just does not cut it for me.
-Way down at the bottom of the bracket, I do not think the Central Connecticut should be going to Dayton. The Blue Devils have a handful of bad losses, but their wins at UMass and at St. Joe’s are better than several teams that Stalica ranked above them.
-All in all, I think John did a solid job with this bracket, and I did have to stretch a bit to find stuff to disagree with — but this wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed!!!
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – January 31, 2025
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly Hoops HD Staff Bracket. This is NOT a forecast of what the field will be come March, but merely a checkpoint as to what teams have accomplished at this point.
And here is the bracket below:
First Four Out: Arizona State, Nebraska, Xavier, Wake Forest
Worth A Look: BYU, SMU, North Texas, UC-San Diego, Bradley, George Mason, Indiana
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– Auburn and Duke are entrenched in the top 2 seeds right now, but Alabama still has a potential path to get even higher. Iowa State had a tough loss at Arizona on Monday, and Alabama is coming off of a win at Mississippi State earlier this week. Duke might have to potentially run the table in the ACC to remain on the 1-line if top-tier teams in the SEC continue to beat top-notch competition within the conference.
– Maryland has gone from a team that was potentially near the cut line to a team that is now fighting for a Top-4 seed. Wins over UCLA, Wisconsin along with road wins at Illinois and Indiana are helping immensely.
– Connecticut has been leaking oil ever since the Liam McNeeley injury, but he should be back in the lineup shortly for the Huskies. Woe to whatever #1 seed draws them in the 2nd round if a seed like this holds up for the Huskies. (And imagine a road to the Final Four for Duke potentially going through UConn, Maryland AND North Carolina)
– While there is a concerted effort by the Selection Committee to keep teams close to Dayton after their First Four games, the presence of Ohio State in a First Four is really problematic with three B1G teams on the 6-line. I do not foresee the committee bumping the OSU/Carolina winner down a seedline just to keep them close to home.
– There are a few other potential home court disadvantages that altered a few matchups: I kept Yale out of the Providence subregion and I also had to keep Cleveland State out of Cleveland against Tennessee. (Keep in mind that the MAC (not Cleveland State) is the host school this year.) Morehead State is also another team that was not potentially placed in Lexington given that they’re only about 60 miles away – it wouldn’t have prevented them from playing a team like Louisville or Tennessee, but Auburn/Alabama might be a bridge too far.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’m a little surprised that there isn’t more love for Clemson. I know their profile doesn’t top out that high, but the way they’ve been playing seems to indicate they’d be a few lines higher than an 8 seed.
-UC Irvine on the 12 line is probably where the real committee would have them, but I actually like them a little more than that. I would have them around the 10 line or so.
-Saint Mary’s on the 9 line is interesting. I think they’re a lot better than that, but also get that their profile doesn’t show it. At least not yet. I think they’ll move up quite a bit between now and March.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
-I agree with Stalica’s protected seeds, but I think there is a strong case to move Houston up to the 2 line (they are 9-0 in Big 12 play) and maybe Iowa State down there as well. The Florida Gators would be my fourth #1 seed as of today — but given the way the SEC is stacked, that may change in less than 24 hours.
-I had championed a solid seed for West Virginia earlier in the year, but I am no longer on that bandwagon. The Mountaineers have lost 3 straight. including games to Arizona State and Kansas State. This team is sinking fast, down to only 7-7 against the top 3 tiers and 5-7 against the top 2. They may deserve to be in the 7/10 game, but should probably be the 10 seed.
-Clemson, on the other hand, I believe to be way under-seeded by Stalica. The Tigers are 17-4 overall and 11-4 against the top three tiers. They really do not have any bad losses, and their win over Kentucky is looking better and better by the day. I would have them several seed lines higher.
-I agree with Griggs (begrudgingly) that St Mary’s should be seeded higher. There may not be any GREAT wins on their profile, but this team looks like one of the top 20, and maybe even one of the top 16, teams in the nation when I watch them play.
-North Carolina does not deserve to be in the field right now. Several teams that Stalica left out simply have better profiles, including Arizona State, Wake Forest, BYU, and (I would even argue) North Texas. That entire list is a coin flip in my mind, and I would probably choose Arizona State today, but I do not even believe the Tar Heels are even among the top four teams out right now. They have one win against a tournament team and 9 losses overall. 9-9 against the top three tiers and only 5-9 against the top two just does not cut it for me.
-Way down at the bottom of the bracket, I do not think the Central Connecticut should be going to Dayton. The Blue Devils have a handful of bad losses, but their wins at UMass and at St. Joe’s are better than several teams that Stalica ranked above them.
-All in all, I think John did a solid job with this bracket, and I did have to stretch a bit to find stuff to disagree with — but this wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed!!!