HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with Part 1 of our 3-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for 11 conference tourneys getting underway this week. Tweet us if you have any comments, and check back later this week for Part 2 and next week for Part 3.
Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Lipscomb (#1 seed)
Dates: March 2-9
Location: Campus sites
2024 tourney champ: Stetson (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: Each of past 8 champs were top-2 seed
The Bisons were tested early and often in non-conference play, starting 2-4 with double-digit losses at Arkansas/Kentucky on their John Calipari national tour. In late-November they flipped the switch and ended up winning 20 of their final 25. Since this tourney is played on campus sites this is 1 of those where it usually pays to pick a top seed. Since Lipscomb and North Alabama split the season series with the home team winning each game by double-digits it is definitely a coin flip. I will pick the team from NashVegas due in large part to Coach Lennie Acuff, who has been a head coach for more than 35 years and made 11 D-2 tourneys when he coached at Alabama-Huntsville. I thought this team was going to fall apart after Dylan Faulkner broke his foot in January, but thanks to Jacob Ognacevic’s transformation from medical redshirt to best player in the conference and their opponents’ inability to make FTs (66.1 FT% allowed is #3 in the nation) they have a good chance of making the NCAA tourney for just the 2nd time in school history.
Big South tourney predicted champ: High Point (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-9
Location: Johnson City, TN
2024 tourney champ: Longwood (#5 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 7 years
Seeding: 4 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
This tourney is frequently unkind to #1 seeds so I was tempted to pick UNC Asheville…until I noticed that the Bulldogs lost 3 games last month. Since this tourney does enjoy seeing some new blood hoist the trophy, the Panthers are the pick as they try to make the 1st NCAA tourney in school history. Coach Alan Huss won 27 games last year in his debut season, and avoided a sophomore slump by winning 26 games this year, including each of his final 11 games. While their defense leaves a lot to be desired, their offense is awesome as they are top-25 in the nation in PPG/FG%/FTM. As much the transfer portal is designed to allow power-conference teams to pluck the best players from smaller schools, High Point has flipped the script by bringing in several players from larger schools including 3 of their top-4 scorers in D’Maurian Williams (who spent the past 2 years at Texas Tech)/Kimani Hamilton (who began his career at Mississippi State)/Bobby Pettiford (who spent his 1st 2 years at Kansas). They even have power-conference size in the form of 7’ center Juslin Bodo Bodo, who is the “big” reason that they only allow 30.8 RPG.
CAA tourney predicted champ: Towson (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: Washington, DC
2024 tourney champ: Charleston (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 3 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel) who have never made the NCAA tourney…but then they lost 4 games in February. Since this tourney likes top-2 seeds who have not won it in awhile the clear choice is Towson, who last made the NCAA tourney in 1991 as a member of the venerable East Coast Conference. After only winning 4 games in 2021 Coach Pat Skerry has now won 20+ games for the 4th year in a row. It is hard to believe the Tigers had a 6-game losing streak during non-conference play, but after big man Tyler Tejada got healthy they have been near-unstoppable with just 2 losses since Christmas. Offense is not their strong suit but their defense will keep them in most games, as they only allow 11.2 APG…and for those who wonder whether prayer can help win games, may I remind you that 2 of their starters are named Christian (May) and Messiah (Jones)!
Horizon tourney predicted champ: Youngstown State (#4 seed)
Dates: March 4-11
Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN
2024 tourney champ: Oakland (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
I do like Penn alumni so I am dying to go with my fellow Quaker Andy Toole, the head coach at Robert Morris (or as the folks at HoopsHD like to call them: Morris Robert). However, this tourney dislikes #1 seeds so I will go with another HoopsHD favorite: the Penguins! Even though I dislike 1st-year coaches, Coach Ethan Faulkner has had quite a wild debut season. He started 2-5 in non-conference play, then won 8 in a row, then had a rocky ride in conference play but was still able to finish top-4 in the conference standings. Their starting lineup is a little short with nobody standing taller than 6’6”, yet they are #10 in the nation with 5.4 BPG due in “large” part to 7’3” C Gabe Dynes, whose defensive prowess is…DYN-O-MITE!!
NEC predicted champ: LIU (#2 seed)
Dates: March 5-11
Location: Campus sites
2024 tourney champ: Wagner (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs in past 7 years
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not top-3 seed
This tourney does not love top-3 seeds but does like new blood, and you would think that 1-seed CCSU would have the advantage with games played at campus sites. However, 1 of their only 2 home losses all season was to LIU, who has not won this tourney since 2018, so beware of the Sharks. They were 4-11 in non-conference play and then began a rollercoaster of a conference season: a 6-game winning streak to start things off, followed by a 4-game losing streak including a pair of OT losses, and then yet ANOTHER 6-game winning streak to finish the regular season. Coach Rod Strickland’s offense is 1 of the worst in the nation, which puts a lot of pressure on their defense to keep them in games. LIU must be 1 of the only teams in this country featuring 3 starters from the country just north of ours: Malachi Davis (from Toronto)/Jamal Fuller (from Toronto)/Shadrak Lasu (from Winnipeg). Good luck, eh!
OVC predicted champ: Southeast Missouri (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: Evansville, IN
2024 tourney champ: Morehead State (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
I know that the Redhawks are both the #1 seed AND won this tourney 2 years ago, but they are just too hot to ignore. After losing 22 games last year, starting non-conference play this year 3-6, and losing 4 of 6 during a 3-week stretch in January, Coach Brad Korn’s team flipped the switch in late-January and won 10 in a row before getting a wake-up call in a 15-PT loss at Eastern Illinois to end their regular season. Their offense needs some work but their perimeter defense is fantastic, as their 28.5 3P% allowed is #5 in the nation. The scary thing is that only 1 of their top-6 scorers is a senior so this could actually be the start of a nice multi-year run.
Patriot predicted champ: Army (#6 seed)
Dates: March 4-12
Location: Campus sites
2024 tourney champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Colgate has won 5 titles in past 7 years and finished 2nd each of the other 2 times
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were #1 seed
Colgate, led by my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, has appeared in the title game during each of the past 7 years and won 4 of them in a row. However, the Raiders finished with a losing record for the 1st time since 2017 so let’s go with the sentimental favorite. It would be quite a sight to see Army make the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in their 123-year basketball history. The Black Knight split each of their season series with the top-4 seeds (American/BU/Bucknell/Colgate) and won 10 conference games for the 3rd time in the past 6 years. They have won multiple games this year that have lasted multiple overtimes, but I suppose it is easy to have endurance when Coach Kevin Kuwik rolls out his 24-man roster (seriously!). There are plenty of seniors whose college basketball debut occurred in 2020 but few have faced the obstacles that SR Jalen Rucker has: he missed all of last year due not to an injury/suspension but rather the rules of West Point. Cadets who begin their junior years must commit to fulfilling their education, so even after Rucker announced that he was transferring the academy would not release him from his commitment: hopefully there will be a happy ending next month for both Jalen and his school.
SoCon predicted champ: Chattanooga (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Asheville, NC
2024 tourney champ: Samford (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: each of past 7 champs were #1-seed
I know I cannot select the #1 seed to win every tourney, but this tourney likes #1 seeds almost as much as the Puppet likes last year’s champ (#BuckyBall!) so the pick is Chattanooga. Coach Dan Earl never won more than 16 games during his 7 years at VMI, but since moving to Tennessee he has now won 18+ games for the 3rd year in a row. It is hard to believe the Mocs started conference play by losing 2 of 3 because since then they have been near-perfect by winning 14 of 15 with just a 4-PT loss to Samford in January. Then again, for those of you who research each team’s roster, why would you ever pick against a team that has a pair of starters named Honor (Huff) and (Frank) Champion?!
Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#3 seed)
Dates: March 5-9
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2024 tourney champ: South Dakota State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2012 are North Dakota State/Oral Roberts/South Dakota State
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were #1 seed
Omaha is the #1 seed but split their season series with the defending champ, and since the tourney will take place in their home state the choice is South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits lost 2 of their 1st 3 conference games but finished strong by winning 10 of their final 13. Coach Eric Henderson may never repeat his ridiculous 30-win season of 2022…but putting up 6 straight winning seasons is nothing to sneeze at. His team is top-75 in the nation in FG% from each of 1-PT/2-PT/3-PT land which means its success is based on its offensive output. Their November neutral-site non-conference schedule prepared them well for league play (a win over McNeese in Sioux Falls in their season opener and a 1-PT loss to Boise State in the Cayman Islands during the week of Thanksgiving), and having the best big man in the conference does not hurt either. 6’11” Oscar Cluff was perfectly decent at Washington State last year but the Australian Sensation has taken it up several notches this year: 17 PPG/12 RPG/3 APG/64 FG%/60 3P%/78 FT%.
Sun Belt predicted champ: Troy (#3 seed)
Dates: March 4-10
Location: Pensacola, FL
2024 tourney champ: JMU (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
This should be 1 of the most entertaining tourneys of the week with the top-5 only separated by 1 game in the standings. This tourney does not like top seeds but does like new blood so I think Troy will take the title. It has been 17 years since Coach Scott Cross has won a conference tourney (his UT-Arlington squad won the 2008 Southland title as a #7 seed) but his current squad is battle-tested after non-conference road trips to Arkansas/Oregon/Houston. The Trojans have lost 6 games since Christmas but all 6 of those losses were by 7 PTS or less, which means they have been competitive in every single game during the past 2 months. Their 29.9 3P% is bottom-20 in the nation but they make up for it by rebounding their misses (14.1 ORB is #9 in the nation) and defending for 40 minutes (65.3 PPG allowed is top-30 in the nation). We are still 8 months away from Carlos Boozer’s twin sons Cameron/Cayden taking the court for Duke but until then we can enjoy the Troy equivalent featuring the Rigsby brothers (Marcus Jr./Myles, who have combined for 19 PPG/7 RPG/2 SPG/2 3PM).
WCC predicted champ: St. Mary’s (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-11
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2024 tourney champ: St. Mary’s (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 20 titles in past 27 years and finished 2nd each of the other 7 times
Seeding: 20 of past 21 champs were top-2 seed
Gonzaga coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 24 straight NCAA tourney appearances (not counting the COVID cancellation), 22 regular season titles, 19 conference tourney titles, while being named conference COY a ridiculous 14 times. However, it is St. Mary’s who has been doing their best Bulldog impersonation this season by going 17-1 in conference play (including a sweep of the Zags) and only a 1-PT road loss at San Francisco last month. The Gaels continue to take comfort in their dominant defense: their 60.8 PPG allowed is #5 in the nation. Augustas Marciulionis was conference POY in 2024, and after his fellow Lithuanian Paulius Murauskas transferred in from Arizona last year they have become quite the dynamic duo, combining for 27 PPG/11 RPG/8 APG/2 SPG/3 3PM.
