The best week of the year is finally here! This is the time when we ponder the impact of geography, the importance of having a veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Texas A&M (lost to Texas in the SEC tourney 2nd round)/UCLA (lost to Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Kentucky coach Mark Pope/Michigan coach Dusty May.
TIP #3: Since UNLV from the Big West won it all in 1990, 32 of the past 33 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn from the AAC in 2014): ACC (11), Big East (9), SEC (6), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (2), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the MWC/WCC to win it all.
TIP #4: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Arizona (Tommy Lloyd has 3 prior tourney appearances)/Missouri (Dennis Gates has 2 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #5: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You must play the best to learn how to beat the best so you might want to stay away from Utah State (SOS: 83)/VCU (SOS: 92).
TIP #6: There are 9 active coaches who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Rick Pitino of St. John’s (72%)/Bill Self of Kansas (71.3%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #7: There are 5 schools who have won at least 85% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Duke (33-4)/Maryland (22-3) are near-automatic in their opening games.
TIP #8: There are 9 schools who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (20-4) is looking good vs. the Oregon-Liberty winner if they can win their 1st round game, and if not then Clemson (5-1) is not a bad alternative.
TIP #9: There are 6 schools who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Florida (9-2) has played great in their Sweet 16 games so Maryland & Memphis should beware.
TIP #10: There are 10 schools who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on some of the best seeds in case either Houston (6-1)/Michigan State (10-4) can make it to the 2nd weekend.
TIP #11: There are 9 schools who have won at least 60% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan is 7-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the South Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #12: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Maryland (no postseason appearance in 2024)/Memphis (no postseason appearance in 2024) are certainly ready for primetime…but might not be ready to go all the way.
TIP #13: There are 12 schools who are undefeated in their NCAA tournament games in a specific state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Duke must be thrilled with their possible trip to Newark because they are 10-0 all-time in the state of New Jersey.
TIP #14: There are 8 schools who have won at least 75% of their NCAA tournament games as an automatic-bid team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Florida because when they win the SEC tourney and get an automatic-bid they are near-unstoppable (17-2).
TIP #15: BYU has played in the most NCAA tournaments (31) without ever making the Final 4.
STRATEGY: If the Cougars could not reach the Final 4 with Danny Ainge/Jimmer Fredette then they will probably not make it with this year’s squad.
TIP #16: Since 1988 only 3 champs have not been a top-3 seed (#4 Arizona in 1997, #7 UConn in 2014, #4 UConn in 2023)
STRATEGY: Arizona/Purdue might be nice sleeper picks but the odds are against them winning it all.
