This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to fill in the weekly bracket for Hoops HD. This is not to be confused with what our colleague Jon Teitel does every week when he attempts to guess the Selection Committee; rather, this is who Stalica feels should be in the field as of games played through last night. This is what he came up with:
First Four Out: Auburn, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, San Diego State
Worth A Look: UCLA, Santa Clara, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Stanford
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– With UConn having taken a couple of losses in the past week, the Huskies have now fallen off of the 1 line and Iowa State has stormed into their place. Wins against Kansas and Houston will do that for you, and that’s on top of a profile that already featured a blowout win at Purdue.
– I still have Texas Tech as a 3 seed for now (especially with three wins against potential #1 seeds), but the makeup of the team changed for the worse with JT Toppin’s season-ending injury earlier this week. We’ll see in the next few games as to whether or not they’re able to maintain their spot in this territory.
– NC State and Miami got off to slow starts, but I have been very impressed with each team of late. They’re playing with a sense of urgency that was missing at the beginning of the year. Teams like Georgia and UCF finally showed likewise earlier this week, but they are by no means safe.
– I had a tough time trying to figure out what to do with Auburn; they have a bunch of great wins on their profile, but 12 losses is just one too many (even with the #1 strength of schedule) right now. They have the quality of wins to be in the top half of the bracket, but not the quantity.
– I’ve finally put Ohio State into my First Four Out; while the Buckeyes quietly have put together a few wins against the NCAA Tournament field, they’ve all been at home. They need to start winning games outside of Columbus ASAP.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-Stalica knows this, but did not say it. Michigan is in Philadelphia because they have requested to be sent there if they are the overall #1 seed even though Buffalo is closer. One of the perks of being the overall #1 is they will send you wherever you want whether it’s the closest site or not.
-I have been really rough on Ohio State all season long. In fact, I’ve dismissed anyone who thought they should be included as having brain trauma. But…I gotta admit…they’ve looked really good in their last couple of games. They look like an NCAA Tournament team, and if they play like that the rest of the way I think they will get the wins they need to make the field.
-This happens every year, and I get that it happens every year, and I get HOW it happens every year, but nevertheless…if I was a 5 seed in this bracket, and I had my choice of facing any team on the 9 line or any team on the 12 line, I think I’d actually rather play the 9 seeds.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
I agree that UConn is off the 1 line (for now), but I would have narrowly chosen Houston over Iowa State. It is a close call and Iowa State did win head-to-head, but the game was at Iowa State so (as Griggs would say), it did not count. I am not a huge fan of all the Metrics, but the three main predictive ones (BPI, Torvik and KenPom) all favor Houston. Houston’s WAB is also better. Those numbers broke the tie for me.
I love putting Tennessee on the 5 line. As other teams have started to stumble late in the season, the Vols resume just keeps looking better and better. This is a team that has not almost flown under the radar all season, but is now within striking distance of a top 4 seed, especially with a big game at Vanderbilt this weekend.
Miami (the Florida one) is playing great right now, but I have no idea what John is smoking putting them on the 6 line. This team has only two wins against teams in the field, and only one of them came away from home. They also have a very bad home loss to Florida State. Predictive metrics would call this team a 10 or 11 seed, and that is where they belong.
I am also impressed by his double inclusion of Mother Miami — both as a 9 seed in the South and a 10 seed in the West. If a team is undefeated, they deserve two bids!!!! By the time this is posted, John may fix this. But I don’t care, my comment stands! (Note from Stalica – there was a bug in the workbook I was using – “Mother Miami” appeared where I have Saint Mary’s listed on the 10 line)
I disgaree with John about a few teams he left out, the most notable of which was Santa Clara. The Broncos, in my opinion, need to be in this field. They have a must win game this weekend at San Francisco then a huge chance to sweep St. Mary’s next week. If they can win both games, I don’t think there is any way they can be left out.
All in all, other than multiple issues with teams named Miami, I think John did a solid job. I give his field a B+, which would equate to an A+ if graded on a curve against Griggs’ last bracket.
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Friday, February 20th
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to fill in the weekly bracket for Hoops HD. This is not to be confused with what our colleague Jon Teitel does every week when he attempts to guess the Selection Committee; rather, this is who Stalica feels should be in the field as of games played through last night. This is what he came up with:
First Four Out: Auburn, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, San Diego State
Worth A Look: UCLA, Santa Clara, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Stanford
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– With UConn having taken a couple of losses in the past week, the Huskies have now fallen off of the 1 line and Iowa State has stormed into their place. Wins against Kansas and Houston will do that for you, and that’s on top of a profile that already featured a blowout win at Purdue.
– I still have Texas Tech as a 3 seed for now (especially with three wins against potential #1 seeds), but the makeup of the team changed for the worse with JT Toppin’s season-ending injury earlier this week. We’ll see in the next few games as to whether or not they’re able to maintain their spot in this territory.
– NC State and Miami got off to slow starts, but I have been very impressed with each team of late. They’re playing with a sense of urgency that was missing at the beginning of the year. Teams like Georgia and UCF finally showed likewise earlier this week, but they are by no means safe.
– I had a tough time trying to figure out what to do with Auburn; they have a bunch of great wins on their profile, but 12 losses is just one too many (even with the #1 strength of schedule) right now. They have the quality of wins to be in the top half of the bracket, but not the quantity.
– I’ve finally put Ohio State into my First Four Out; while the Buckeyes quietly have put together a few wins against the NCAA Tournament field, they’ve all been at home. They need to start winning games outside of Columbus ASAP.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-Stalica knows this, but did not say it. Michigan is in Philadelphia because they have requested to be sent there if they are the overall #1 seed even though Buffalo is closer. One of the perks of being the overall #1 is they will send you wherever you want whether it’s the closest site or not.
-I have been really rough on Ohio State all season long. In fact, I’ve dismissed anyone who thought they should be included as having brain trauma. But…I gotta admit…they’ve looked really good in their last couple of games. They look like an NCAA Tournament team, and if they play like that the rest of the way I think they will get the wins they need to make the field.
-This happens every year, and I get that it happens every year, and I get HOW it happens every year, but nevertheless…if I was a 5 seed in this bracket, and I had my choice of facing any team on the 9 line or any team on the 12 line, I think I’d actually rather play the 9 seeds.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD: