It’s Wednesday!! During the regular season that would mean we would be recording our Under the Radar Video Podcast tonight!! But, it’s not the regular season. It’s the night before the Round of 64, and doing such a podcast would not make a whole lot of sense.
But, I do want to focus a bit on a topic that often comes up in regard to the Under the Radar conferences. Are conference tournaments unfair?? Do conference tournaments result in wiping out an entire season because of what happened during the last week of it? Do they frequently result in the best team not getting into the NCAA Tournament? I understand these arguments. But I also feel that when you look at it closely, the conclusion is that most of the time the conference tournaments are not unfair at all.
Here is a rundown of all 22 conferences that looks at whether or not their conference tournaments yielded a grossly unfair result. A few general guidelines that I used were:
-If the team that ended up with the auto-bid finished the season with as many overall conference wins as the 1st place team, or in some cases was just one game behind, then the result was fair.
-If the team that won the auto-bid was ahead in some (or most) of the major metrics, I considered the result fair
-and of course, if the 1st place team won the auto-bid, then it was automatically a fair result.
Now before you yell at me about what I don’t know, realize that I probably DO know it! I know conferences each get one auto-bid and they can reward it however they like. They don’t have to have a conference tournament, and if they decide to have a confernece tournament they can format it however they like. I know that! But, even if everyone agreed to it, that doesn’t mean that I have to think it is fair.
Now, let’s get to it…
-AMERICA EAST – UMBC was 1st place team and the team with the best metrics. They finished with 17 total wins, which was two more than what Vermont had, who they beat in the championship game. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-ATLANTIC SUN – Austin Peay and Central Arkansas tied for 1st with 15-3 records. Queens finished 3rd with a 13-5 record. By the end of the conference tournament, Queens had 16 total conference wins, which was the same number that Austin Peay had and just one less than what Central Arkansas had. Central Arkansas had won 17 games and beaten Queens twice, but lost to them in the championship game. Queens was behind both Central Arkansas and Austin Peay in the NET and the WEB, but they weren’t SO far behind that it was a major miscarriage of justice that they won the auto bid. I must say that it would be “more fair” if this league had forced Queens to win two road games instead of two neutral floor games in order to win the conference tournament. It was better and “more fair” when it was at campus sites! (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-BIG SKY – Idaho was just 9-9 and a full four games behind Portland State at the end of the regular season. By the end of the Big Sky Tournament, Idaho had 13 conference wins. Portland State had 14, which put their win total within one game. Idaho’s NET was actually better than Portland State’s by the time the tournament was over. Idaho also finished with the most overall D1 wins out of any Big Sky team. To me, this is not a result that is grossly unfair. Idaho’s whole body of work indicates they are deserving enough of the automatic bid. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-BIG SOUTH – High Point was clearly the best team and won the auto-bid. Had Winthrop won the Big South Tournament, they would have had 16 total conference wins to High Point’s 17, and would have beaten High Point twice during the year. I cannot say this was an unfair result, nor would it have been unfair had Winthrop won the championship game. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-BIG WEST – Hawaii had 16 Big West wins by the end of the tournament, which tied them for the most. They also beat UC Irvine twice during the year. Hawaii had the most overall D1 wins, the best NET, the best WAB, the best SOR, and the best JNG out of any Big West team. They were objectively the best overall season of any team in the conference even though they weren’t the 1st place team. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR)
-CAA – Hofstra won the auto-bid. They finished two games behind UNCW in the regular season, but had matched that total of 15 by the end of the conference tournament. Hofstra also had the best OOC campaign out of all CAA teams and finished with the best NET, the best WAB, the second best SOR, and the second best JNG. They objectively appear to have had the best overall season despite not being the 1st place team. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-CONFERENCE USA – Kennesaw State won the auto-bid despite being 6th in the standings and a full 7 games behind Liberty. Their metrics were nowhere near Liberty and even after their conference tournament run where they finished with 13 conference wins to Liberty’s 18. Liberty did melt down at the end of the season, and that is worth noting, but they were still the most deserving team and it’s hard to make an argument that anyone else should have gotten it. (Puppet Ruling – UNFAIR!!!)
-HORIZON LEAGUE – Wright State was the 1st place team and they won auto-bid. This is an automatic ruling of “Fair!”. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-IVY LEAGUE – Penn won the auto-bid as the 3rd place team. They finished the regular season with 9 wins to Yale’s 11, but had 11 wins to their 12 by the time the tournament was over. Their metrics and D1 win total was way behind Yale and they lost two them twice during the regular season. Even though they meet my genreal standard of being within one total win of the 1st place team, I gotta admit this seems a little unfair. But having said that, Yale should have been better than what they were. Had they played up to their ceiling they could have played their way inside the bubble and not even needed the auto-bid. But, I’m still going against my guideline of a team that was within one of the overall conference win total. Yale was just clearly that much better. (Puppet Ruling – UNFAIR!)
-METRO ATLANTIC – Merrimack finished four games ahead of Siena by the end of the regular season and they had beaten Siena twice during the season. Siena beat them in the championship game, which gave them a total of 17 MAAC wins to Merrimack’s 19. Merrimack was more deserving, but when looking at the whole body of work Siena finished with as many D1 wins as Merrimack (23), were just three spots back in the NET, and less than 8 spots back in the JNG. They weren’t so far distant that that them winning the auto-bid was outrageous. (Puppet ruling – FAIR!)
-MAC – Miami OH went undefeated during the regular season. Akron lost just one game and it was at Miami OH in a very close game. By the end of the tournament, Akron had more conference wins and a better NET. Miami OH also did enough to earn an at-large bid (albeit barely). This result was clearly fair! (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-MEAC – Howard was the 1st place team and won the auto-bid. They were clearly the most talented team throughout the year and no other team’s metrics were close to theirs. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-MISSOURI VALLEY – Belmont won the regular season with a 16-4 conference record and clearly looked like the best team. By the end of the conference tournament, Northern Iowa had 15 MVC wins to Belmont’s 16, which put them within one of the overall conference win total. Northern Iowa had fewer D1 wins (22 to Belmont’s 25), but they were just 10 spots back in the NET and just two spots back in KenPom. Northern Iowa’s ceiling is as high as Belmont’s. They did slip up during the year and blew a few games they should have won, but by the end their overall body of work was close enough to Belmont’s to where their auto-bid win was fair. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-NEC – Long Island was the 1st place team and won the conference tournament. They were clearly the strongest team. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-OHIO VALLEY – Tennessee State tied for 1st place, but by the end of the year they were clearly the strongest team and perhaps the only team that had any chance at all of avoiding the First Four. They blew through the conference tournament and were more deserving of the auto-bid than anyone else. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-PATRIOT LEAGUE – This one I cannot defend. Navy blew through the conference and no team was close to their conference win total or their metrics. They did get to play all their tournament games at home, so they did have an advantage, but I still think that despite losing at home it was a shame they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. Lehigh finished 6 games back in the conference standings, by the time the PL Tournament was over they still only had 14 wins to Navy’s 18, and Navy’s metrics were way better. (Puppet Ruling – UNFAIR!)
-SOCON – Furman finished three games behind East Tennessee State in the standings, but then beat them handily in the championship game to bring their SoCon win total to 13 vs ETSU’s 15. This is still a two game difference. ETSU also had 21 total D1 wins to Furman’s 19 and they were virtually better in every metric. I will say that I think Furman underperformed a little during the regular season and when they were at their best they were as good as anyone in the conference, but ETSU’s body of work was clearly better. It’s not grossly unfair, but it is perhaps somewhat unfair. (Puppet Ruling – UNFAIR!)
-SOUTHLAND – I will start by saying that I don’t think it was fair that Stephen F Austin was the outright first place team, but still had to play on the road at McNeese State in the conference tournament. But as a whole, McNeese’s conference win total by the end of the conference tournament was 21, which equalled SFA’s. They also beat SFA rather handily in the championship game. Both teams won 26 D1 games and had good metrics, but McNeese’s were better. McNeese getting the auto-bid was totally fair. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-SWAC – Prairie View was the 8th place team and by the end of the conference tournament their NET was just 300th. I believe this is the lowest metrics of any team that has ever actually made the NCAA Tournament field, and if it weren’t for them winning the conference tournament this doesn’t happen. Bethune Cookman had the best overall season with the best metrics, best SWAC record, and most overall D1 wins, but received no help from the SWAC’s tournament format at all. The SWAC uses a standard seeding format at a predetermined site. There’s no ladder. There’s no home court. To set it up that way, in my opinion, is unfair to the 1st place team. It’s ridiculous for a UTR conference to not give them any advantage at all. And the result of the tournament was also unfair with someone who was so far behind Bethune Cookman winning the auto-bid. (Puppet Ruling – UNFAIR!)
-SUMMIT LEAGUE – North Dakota State was the first place team with the most D1 wins and most of the best metrics, and while they had some scares in the conference tournament, they did win it and were the most deserving team. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-SUN BELT – I’m not going to dissect this entire conference because there is just too much to dissect. One game separated the top 7 teams, and had any of those seven won the auto-bid it would have been fair. Georgia Southern was the 10th place team and played in the championship game, but because of the conference tournament format by the time they reached the championship their win total would have equalled Troy’s had they won beaten them in the championship game. As it worked out, Troy was the 1st place team, and they did win the auto bid, and that results in an automatic ruling of fair, but virtually any other outcome where any of those other seven teams had won it would have been fair as well. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
-WAC – Cal Baptist finished a game behind Utah Valley in the conference standings, but their overall conference win total was 15 by the end of the conference tournament, which matched Utah Valley’s. They were close to even in most of the metrics, and while Utah Valley may have been a little better overall, they weren’t so much better that Cal Baptist winning it was unfair. Cal Baptist also had more total D1 wins than Utah Valley did. The final was a classic, and it is the last WAC final we will ever see, and the fact that the WAC is going away is unfair to us fans who have always loved it, but the result of their last conference tournament was absolutely fair. (Puppet Ruling – FAIR!)
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FINAL TALLEY – 17-5 in favor of FAIR!!
So in conclusion, Are conference tournaments unfair to teams in UTR conferences?? My answer is a RESOUNDING NO!! If anything, more often than not they actually do a better job of getting the best team into the field than simply taking the 1st place team would. Sometimes a team that is clearly better and who had a really strong OOC campaign (Hofstra, for example) hit’s a skid in conference play, but is still the best overall team. By the end of the CAA Tournament, I think the conference got the best team with the best overall body of work in, and had it not been for the conference tournament that would not have happened.
Having said that, while this happens MOST of the time, it certainly does not happen ALL of the time. What happened to Navy felt almost criminal. No one from the Patriot League was remotely close to being as deserving as they were, and because they had a bad day on a very bad day to have a bad day, their whole season was erased. I get that. I sympathize with that. I agree that isn’t fair.
But I will also say this…
As a long time fan of Under the Radar teams and conferences, the OOC portion of the schedule can (or at least SHOULD) allow a very good UTR team to position themselves to not even need the auto-bid. Yale was good enough and had their chances. As did Akron. As did Belmont. As did SFA. As did Liberty. Those teams were perhaps just one or two wins away from not even needing the auto-bid, so it’s not TOTALLY unfair that some of them were left out because they had a chance to be in a position to not even need it.
Puppet’s FINAL ruling – KEEP ALL CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS!!
