Chad is in charge of this week’s staff bracket. Every week, one of the HoopsHD Staff members posts their current bracket. Unlike the brakcets posted by our Jon Teitel every Sunday, these are not necessarily predictions of what the Selection Committee will do, but rather are a current snapshot of where we believe the teams should be ranked as of today. Chad’s bracket, below, is through all games of January 1, 2026. Below the bracket are his notes and potential comments/critiques from other staff members.
CHAD’S NOTES:
- My top four teams out were, in order, Ohio State, TCU, Boise State and Oklahoma. If Boise State had not started the year with a home loss to Hawai’i Pacific, they would have easily been in the field.
- I had 12 other teams on my board that got some consideration for an at-large bid: California, George Mason, Illinois State, New Mexico, Washington, Creighton, Nevada, VCU, Santa Clara, Wisconsin, San Diego State and Texas A&M. Anyone neither in my field nor on these lists did not deserve any attention.
- Undefeated Miami-Ohio is seeded on my 11 line, while one of my First Four games (Miami-Florida vs Butler) is on the 12 line. This is NOT because I believe Mother Miami is inside the bubble. Rather, all four game locations on my 11 line were Thursday-Saturday sites. At least one of the two at-large First Four games (and at least one of the two 16 seed games as well) must play into a Friday-Sunday site. Therefore, the First Four game was moved down a seed line and Miami-Ohio moved up.
- I love what Iowa State has done so far this season, and their blowout win at Purdue was amazing. But I actually like UConn’s overall profile slightly better and gave the Huskies my #3 overall seed behind Michigan and Arizona.
- Which conference is the best? Well if you go by number of bids, it is a four way tie between the four power conferences — each of them put 9 teams into my field. The SEC notably only has one protected (top four) seed, while the Big 12 led the way with 6 protected seeds. The ACC nailed 3 protected seeds and one of their best overall showings in year, though two of their 9 teams are in the Frst Four in Dayton.
- I ended up with five Big East teams in my field, which I did ot expect to happen. After UConn, however, Villanova, St John’s and Seton Hall all look like tourney teams as of today, and Butler was literally my last team in.
- The only other conference with multple bids was the West Coast with Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. Yes, the Mountain West is a one bid league this week.
- Kentucky and St. John’s are matched up in the first round. Some may point out that this is a rematch of a regular season game and should be disfavored in the first round. However, with two SEC 8 seeds and two SEC 9 seeds, St. John’s only possible opponents would have been Kentucky or Auburn — both regular season rematches. Having them play Auburn would have placed St. John’s potentially up agianst UConn in the second round — which is not permitted at all. So the UK/Johnnies rematch was the only possible move — and a great storyline to boot!
STAFF COMMENTS:
Comments from John Stalica:
– The first three lines of the bracket are pretty easy to lay out at this point. It does get slightly tougher once you get down to the #4 line. Louisville, for example, has to be thrilled to see a team like Tennessee on the complete opposite side of the bracket. They just do not have an answer for the Vols regardless of where the game is played.
– The rubber is about to hit the road for a team like Central Florida. A win at Texas A&M is their only real win of note, but they begin Big 12 play with a home game against Kansas and a road trip to an improved Oklahoma State team. Win one of those games and they are a legitimate top-half tournament team. Win neither and suddenly the question marks return.
– The Miami Hurricanes must have gotten advance notice of Chad’s bracket. In Dallas on New Year’s Eve, they were so overjoyed that their football team ended up dethroning Ohio State (and I’m not even sold that was an upset). Not bad to go from last year’s Stallings Award winner to the NCAA Tournament field, even if they have to go through a security checkpoint in Dayton to do so.
– Chad could just as easily have swapped out Butler for Creighton as his last team in. The Bulldogs have a neutral-court win against Virginia but too many near-misses to be on the right side of the cut line right now. It took Greg McDermott a while to figure out his team’s chemistry, but the Jays are white-hot right now (I’d call them red-hot, but red is the color of their in-state rival) and also coming off of a win at home against Butler.
– Tulsa has a similar profile to UCF, only without a Tier 1 win. They open up play in the American with 3 of their first 4 games on the road and follow up that stretch with a game at home against Memphis. I’m starting to wonder what it will take to relegate the American to discussion on Under The Radar on Wednesdays.
– Too bad Chattanooga isn’t the team to beat in the SoCon this year. I don’t believe we’ve ever had an NCAA Tournament bracket that has featured the flagship Tennessee (aka UTK) alongside both Chattanooga and UT-Martin. There is a slight possibility that could happen in 2026.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID: As much as i want to be critical of this bracket, and really of anything Chad does in any capacity, I find myself agreeing with most of it, or at least understanding what I think is a logical thought process. Tulsa on the 9-line seems a bit high, but then again Tulsa could easily end up there if they blow through the American, which they should do.
-I did want to mention Nebraska simply because they are one of the more exciting stories of the year and because no one else has yet. They are in the top ten of his seedlist, and if you’re selecting/seeding strictly off of profiles, that’s where they belong. That’s how I do all my brackets, and I’d have them exactly where Chad does. Having said that, while I like Nebraska’s team a lot, I’m not sold that they are one of the ten best overall teams in the nation even if their profile right now is as outstanding as it is. They may be one of the TWENTY best teams in the nation, but at #9 overall they are one spot away from the #2 line, and I just don’t believe them to be THAT good. But, they may prove me wrong! They have so far. We will see what they do tonight against Michigan State.
