America East:
-Binghamton out with a home loss to Maine or wins by both Bryant (home vs NJIT) AND New Hampshire (at Albany)
Ivy League:
-Princeton is out with a home loss to Dartmouth OR a Cornell home win over Brown
*Columbia is out with a home loss to Yale AND a Cornell home win over Brown
-Dartmouth is out with a road loss at Princeton AND a Cornell home win over Brown
MAC:
-Western Michigan is out if Buffalo wins at home over Central Michigan AND UMass wins at Bowling Green
-Eastern Michigan is out if Buffalo wins at home over Central Michigan AND UMass wins at Bowling Green
-The loser of the Ball State at Northern Illinois game is out if Buffalo wins at home over Central Michigan AND UMass wins at Bowling Green
NEC:
-Saint Francis is out with a loss at Central Connecticut AND a Chicago State win at Wagner
-Chicago State is out with a loss at Wagner AND a Saint Francis win at Central Connecticut
*If both teams win or both teams lose, one will still be eliminated but the tiebreakers are unconfirmed at this time given that they split their regular season series.
Ohio Valley:
-One of Eastern Illinois (at SIUE), Tennessee Tech (at SEMO) or Little Rock (home vs Southern Indiana) will be eliminated today. The easy tiebreaker is if 2 of 3 win, in which case the 1 loser is out. The tiebreakers get more complicated beyond that, but Tennessee Tech is probably out if all 3 win or all 3 lose. If only 1 of the 3 win, then Tennessee Tech loses a tiebreaker to Eastern Illinois, but if it is between Tennessee Tech and Little Rock or Eastern Illinois and Little Rock,i t gets more complicated. Little Rock looks like they will lose either of those tiebreakers but and we may need to wait for official word from the league
Southland:
-Incarnate Word is out with a loss at home to Lamar
-East Texas A&M is out with a loss
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NEWS AND NOTES:
-Michigan picked up another impressive road win, and out of all their impressive wins on the year this was perhaps their biggest one. It was a decisive win at Illinois, who is a solid protected seed. The final score was 84-70, but late in the game Michigan was up by much more than that.
-Yale, who was in 1st place in the Ivy League, fell on a last second 3pt shot to Cornell 72-69. This will put another dent in the Bulldog’s tournament resume and it’s a big win for Cornell that can help position them to finish in the top four.
-Miami OH remains unbeaten, but barely. Once again they trailed late in the game, and once again they hit a last second shot after coming back to win 69-67. That seems to be their M.O.
-Akron, who is just a game behind Miami OH in the MAC standings, did not struggle at all. They faced rivals Kent State on the road and won the Wagon Wheel in decisive fashion 92-70.
-The Sun Belt Tournament is set!! All the tiebreakers are worked out!! We have a #StairwayToSeven!!!
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-VIRGINIA AT DUKE (ACC). Virginia is looking more and more like a solid protected seed who we could see go deep in the NCAA Tournament. Having said that, as good as they are, I don’t think they can beat the top ranked team on their floor. In a vacuum, this is a harder game to win than it is to win a game in the Final Four. Now, granted, you have to get to the Final Four in order to win a Final Four game, but in a vacuum beating the top ranked team in a true road game is harder than beating them on a neutral floor. So, as good as the Hoos are, they’re still kind of shooting at the moon in this one.
-LOUISVILLE AT CLEMSON (ACC). Clemson is in free fall. They need a win to pull themselves out of the tailspin they’re in after losing four straight, three of which were to teams that are not inside the bubble. Louisville has struggled on the road. They have a solid profile, but it would be a lot more solid if they could get a road win against a team that’s solidly in the field. So, both teams have a lot to play for in this one.
-VANDERBILT AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky has had a solid season, but the rest of their schedule will be a challenge. Vandy has been solid as well, but their resume doesn’t top out with any real big time wins, so to beat a solid team on the road would make their profile look a lot better. Kentucky runs as hot and cold as any team in the country and will want to make up for a pasting they took in Nashville the last time these two teams met.
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). Both teams are outside the bubble, but likely on the board. If either of them is to have any chance at all of getting selected without the auto-bid they’ll need this one today.
-KANSAS AT ARIZONA (Big 12). This is Round 2 of what was a very exciting and thrilling Round 1. I still think Arizona is the best overall team and has the best overall profile and avenging the loss at Kansas a few weeks ago should help solidify that. It won’t be easy. Kansas is good. But I don’t know if they’re quite good enough to go into the desert and win at Arizona.
-TEXAS TECH AT IOWA STATE (Big 12). Texas Tech is still trying to adjust to life without JT Toppin and they’ve got one of the toughest road tests that any team can have this afternoon. Iowa State is within reach of a 1-seed and they have one of the toughest home courts in the country. If somehow Texas Tech wins this, it would be as big of a statement win that any team has managed this year. They can still be Goliath level programs on the road without their star.
-NEBRASKA AT USC (Big Ten). Nebraska is trying to end up as a protected seed and USC is simply trying to land inside the field. This would be a massive win for the Trojans if they are able to pull it off.
-TEXAS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). It’s a rivalry game and while both teams are inside the bubble, neither are completely safe and both have a lot to play for. This one should be a fun one because it’s so important both on and off paper.
-ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Both teams are in the rankings and both are flirting with protected seeds, but both still have work to do in order to lock one up. A win today for either team would certainly constitute “doing work,” so it’s an important resume building opportunity for both.
-VILLANOVA AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). The Johnnies were totally boat-raced in their last game. Knowing the team and coach, I expect them to do much better tonight. Nova is solidly in the field and right now solidly in the top half of the bracket. A win would really boost their resume. The Johnnies might still be able to end up as a protected seed, but they pretty much need to win out in order to do it.
-ARKANSAS AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida appears close to being locked in as a protected seed and will not be easy to beat at home. Arkansas can still end up as a protected seed, but in order for that to happen they need to win games like this, which are not easy to win.
-VIRGINIA TECH AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). VA Tech is outside the bubble and winning a game like this could be the deciding factor in whether or not they make the field. Since beating Duke, North Carolina hasn’t been quite as good. They need to hold serve in this one to hold their spot on the seedlist.
-GRAND CANYON AT UTAH STATE (Mountain West) – Utah State has dropped two straight and did not look good at all in their last game. They’re still positioned to make the field, but they need to hold serve today against a potentially dangerous Grand Canyon team.
-GONZAGA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Both teams are near locks to make the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga is a protected seed and Saint Mary’s is pretty much in. It’s a rivalry game, so they’re playing for bragging rights. They’re also playing to improve their seed in the NCAA Tournament. Saint Mary’s is coming off a fantastic performance against Santa Clara earlier in the week and will have a real shot at winning this if they can play like that tonight. Barring an appearance in the WCC Championship, this will be the last time we see the WCC’s premier rivalry.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Colorado @ Houston (Big 12) – Houston has lost three straight but should have very little trouble snapping out of that today
-Seton Hall @ Connecticut (Big East) – UConn is coming off of one of their more impressive showings of the year and should roll in this one
-Iowa @ Penn State (Big Ten) – This should be a layup conference road win for Iowa
-NC State @ Notre Dame (ACC) – this should be a layup road win for NC State, and it’s one they need
-Missouri @ Mississippi State (SEC) – Mizzou is perhaps on the edge of the bubble and needs to hold serve on the road in this one
-UCLA @ Minnesota (Big Ten) – UCLA has had two big back to back wins, but both were at home. They need to keep that going today in what should be a winnable road game
-Boston College @ Miami FL (ACC) – Miami has been playing really well recently and shouldn’t have any trouble today
-South Carolina @ Georgia (SEC) – Georgia really needs to hold serve in this one. They have been playing better, but they still have work to do and don’t want to undo some good recent wins with a really bad loss
-Air Force @ Wyoming (Mountain West, Front Range) – We at Hoops HD Love the Front Range!!!! Oh who am I kidding?? This will be a terrible game!!
-Wisconsin @ Washington (Big Ten) – The Badgers had a bad loss to Oregon earlier in the week and really need to bounce back in this one
-Pittsburgh @ California (ACC) – Cal is squarely on the bubble and needs to hold serve at home in what amounts to the equivalency of a buy game.
-BYU @ West Virginia (Big 12) – BYU had a rough showing earlier this week and needs to bounce back. The problem is this. is not an easy road game to win.
-SMU @ Stanford (ACC) – SMU is floating around the bubble and needs to hold serve against teams that are nowhere near the bubble
-TCU @ Kansas State (Big 12) – TCU is right on the bubble and needs this conference road win. A loss would be damaging.
-Duquesne @ Saint Louis (Atlantic 10) – SLU looked really bad in their last game at Dayton and needs to bounce back tonight
-Oregon State @ Santa Clara (West Coast) – Santa Clara is still clinging to the bubble and it’s important they hold serve tonight
-Baylor @ UCF (Big 12) – UCF is coming off a huge road win and should be able to hold serve tonight against a Baylor team that’s struggled this year
-Ole Miss @ Auburn (SEC) – simply put, Auburn cannot afford to lose this game. They risk missing the field if they lose at home to a team that’s nowhere near the field
UTR WATCH:
-Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island (NEC) – LIU has already wrapped up first place and home court advantage in the conference tourney
-Austin Peay @ Bellarmine (Atlantic Sun) – Austin Peay will clinch 1st place outright with a win today
-Tennessee State @ UT Martin (Ohio Valley) – Tennessee State will clinch a share of 1st place and win the tiebreaker with a win today. A loss gives it to Morehead State outright. Up until about two weeks ago UT Martin clearly appeared to be the best team in the conference but they have come unraveled down the stretch
-Bethune Cookman @ Southern (SWAC) – Cookman has already clinched 1st place
-Colgate @ Navy (Patriot League) – Navy is having a historically good season and will have home court advantage throughout the PL Tournament
-Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian (WAC) – Utah Valley is the 1st place team and has a path to an outright first place finish
-East Tennessee State @ Mercer (SoCon) – ETSU has already wrapped up the SoCon, but will likely be tested on the road in this one
-Stephen F Austin @ Houston Christian (Southland) – SFA is looking to rebound from a somewhat surprising loss. They still have a one game lead over McNeese and still have a path to an outright first place finish
-Yale @ Columbia (Ivy League) – Yale can get one step closer to locking up an outright 1st place finish
-Liberty @ Jacksonville State (Confernece USA) – after dominating the league, Liberty has had a rough week dropping two straight and not looking good in either game. They’ll be tested on the road again today and need to bounce back
-Hawaii @ Cal State Fullerton (Big West) – Hawaii and UC Irvine are locked up in the race for 1st place in the Big West. This will be another tough road game
-UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine (Big West) – The Gauch Eater Cup! UC Irvine is coming off one of the more thrilling wins of the season and is tied with Hawaii in the race for 1st place. They should be tested at home by a pretty solid UCSB team tonight.
