The best week of the year is finally here! This is the time when we ponder the impact of geography, the importance of having a veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Miami OH (lost to UMass in the MAC tourney quarterfinals)/Texas Tech (lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Villanova coach Kevin Willard/Virginia coach Ryan Odom.
TIP #3: Since UNLV from the Big West won it all in 1990, 32 of the past 33 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn from the American in 2014): ACC (11), Big East (9), SEC (6), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (2), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the A-10/WCC to win it all.
TIP #4: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like BYU (Kevin Young has 1 prior tourney appearance)/Duke (Jon Scheyer has 3 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #5: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You must play the best to learn how to beat the best so you might want to stay away from St. Mary’s (SOS: 82)/Utah State (SOS: 80).
TIP #6: There are 11 active coaches who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Dan Hurley of UConn (75%)/Todd Golden of Florida (75%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #7: There are 7 schools who have won at least 85% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Kansas (38-3)/North Carolina (33-3) are near-automatic in their opening games.
TIP #8: There are 8 schools who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (21-4) is looking good vs. the Villanova-Utah State winner if they can win their 1st round game, and if not then Clemson (5-1) is not a bad alternative.
TIP #9: There are 9 schools who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on some of the top seeds in case either Houston (7-1)/Duke (18-7) can make it to the 2nd weekend.
TIP #10: There are 9 schools who have won at least 60% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan is 7-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the Midwest Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #11: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Nebraska (who won the Crown in 2025)/Virginia (no postseason appearance in 2025) are certainly ready for primetime…but might not be ready to go all the way.
TIP #12: There are 7 schools who have won at least 85% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: How excited is Houston (6-1 in the state of Texas) that the South Region is in Houston?!
TIP #13: BYU has played in the most NCAA tournaments (31) without ever making the Final 4.
STRATEGY: I am a big fan of AJ Dybantsa…but if the Cougars could not reach the Final 4 with Danny Ainge/Jimmer Fredette, then they will probably not make it with this year’s squad.
TIP #14: Since 1988 only 3 champs have not been a top-3 seed (#4 Arizona in 1997, #7 UConn in 2014, #4 UConn in 2023)
STRATEGY: Alabama/Kansas might be nice sleeper picks, but the odds are against them winning it all.
TIP #15: The last champ with only 1 loss was Texas Western in 1966, and the last 2 teams entering the NCAA tournament with only 1 loss ended up losing in the title game (2005 Illinois, 2008 Memphis).
STRATEGY: Miami OH might make it to the title game, but the odds are against them winning it once they get there.
TIP #16: Each of the 4 times that Mount St. Mary’s lost in the Round of 64, the team that beat them won it all the next season.
STRATEGY: The team who beat Mount St. Mary’s in last year’s Round of 64 was…Duke!
