Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings (JNG)

Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained

The JNG reached new heights in 2025 with the 2nd highest posted score (5th overall) on bracketmatrix and the highest 2 year average of ALL bracketologists. YES! No other submission to bracketmatrix has a better combined score over the last two years than the JNG! The JNG also kept its ongoing streak as the top computer based metric to 6 straight years and 8 of the last 9.

Out of the 11 computer based metrics submitted to bracketmatrix.com; the JNG comes out on top. The JNG also was 5th overall (only 2 points behind the winner) out of ALL 249 bracket projections posted across the web, once again beating out all household names such as Lunardi and Jerry Palm.

SUMMARY: Joby’s Nitty Gritty (JNG) rankings were created as an attempt to quantify the characteristics the selection committee has stated and shown to be important as key factors in their analysis. He actually draws from what is known as the “Nitty Gritty Sheet” that the NCAA Selection Committee uses in taking the inputs for the statistics that make up these ratings. This is why it is known as his Nitty Gritty Ratings.

We first show a formal seed list gathered from the ratings and submitted to the bracketmatrix.com. The benefit of being a math based seed list is that it can be easily updated daily after results come in from the night before so have fun following along.

After that list are the ratings for all 364 teams. Once the season begins, if one wants to eyeball the at-large field, look around the 40th-55th spot. The gap there allows one to see who is in and who is out. Similarly the NIT and the newly created CBC tournament field break can be seen between 100th and 120th. In addition, you may see some daily dramatic jumps and drops around the NIT/CBC cut line even if a team does not play due to specific requirements and traits taken that subtly change a team’s merits but have a dramatic effect on their profile.

Latest JNG Seed List March 16, 2025

SEED	TEAM	Conference

1	Auburn	SEC
1	Houston	BXII
1	Duke	ACC
1	Florida	SEC
2	Alabama	SEC
2	Michigan State	BIG
2	Tennessee	SEC
2	St. John’s	BE
3	Texas A&M	SEC
3	Texas Tech	BXII
3	Kentucky	SEC
3	Iowa State	BXII
4	Wisconsin	BIG
4	Purdue	BIG
4	Arizona	BXII
4	Maryland	BIG
5	BYU	BXII
5	Clemson	ACC
5	Oregon	BIG
5	Michigan	BIG
6	Ole Miss	SEC
6	Illinois	BIG
6	Louisville	ACC
6	UCLA	BIG
7	Missouri	SEC
7	St. Mary’s	WCC
7	Kansas	BXII
7	Marquette	BE
8	Memphis	AAC
8	Gonzaga	WCC
8	Connecticut	BE
8	Mississippi State	SEC
9	Creighton	BE
9	New Mexico	MWC
9	Baylor	BXII
9	Georgia	SEC
10	Utah State	MWC
10	Oklahoma	SEC
10	Arkansas	SEC
10	West Virginia	BXII
11	Vanderbilt	SEC
11	Indiana	BIG
11	North Carolina	ACC
11	San Diego State	MWC
11	Drake	MVC
11	VCU	A10
12	UC-San Diego	BW
12	Colorado State	MWC
12	Liberty	CUSA
12	McNeese	SLC
13	Akron	MAC
13	Yale	IVY
13	High Point	BSo
13	Grand Canyon	WAC
14	Lipscomb	ASUN
14	Troy	SunB
14	UNC-Wilmington	CAA
14	Montana	BSKY
15	Robert Morris	HZN
15	Omaha	SUM
15	Wofford	SoCON
15	Bryant	AmE
16	Norfolk State	MEAC
16	American	PAT
16	SIU-Edwardsville	OVC
16	Mount St. Mary’s	MAAC
16	Alabama State	SWAC
16	St. Francis (PA)	NEC

JNG Ratings – last updated Sunday March 16 at 5:50pm

RANK		Final Rating	Conf	+/-	Ystdy
1	Auburn	12.320820	SEC	–	1
2	Houston	10.892362	BXII	–	2
3	Duke	10.299942	ACC	–	3
4	Florida	10.115917	SEC	–	4
5	Alabama	10.095050	SEC	–	5
6	Michigan State	9.705191	BIG	–	6
7	Tennessee	9.658073	SEC	–	7
8	St. John’s	8.355292	BE	–	8
9	Texas A&M	7.905081	SEC	–	9
10	Texas Tech	7.778479	BXII	–	10
11	Kentucky	7.717337	SEC	–	11
12	Iowa State	7.693686	BXII	–	12
13	Wisconsin	7.227290	BIG	–	13
14	Purdue	7.128659	BIG	–	14
15	Arizona	6.882097	BXII	–	15
16	Maryland	6.678854	BIG	–	16
17	BYU	6.646309	BXII	–	17
18	Clemson	6.590003	ACC	–	18
19	Oregon	6.539333	BIG	–	19
20	Michigan	6.219356	BIG	–	20
21	Ole Miss	6.215624	SEC	–	21
22	Illinois	6.109689	BIG	–	22
23	Louisville	5.931105	ACC	–	23
24	UCLA	5.785897	BIG	–	24
25	Missouri	5.656972	SEC	–	25
26	St. Mary’s	5.620428	WCC	–	26
27	Kansas	5.593574	BXII	–	27
28	Marquette	5.192315	BE	–	28
29	Memphis	5.109104	AAC	–	29
30	Gonzaga	4.979579	WCC	1	31
31	Connecticut	4.878874	BE	-1	30
32	Mississippi State	4.521951	SEC	–	32
33	Creighton	4.434943	BE	–	33
34	New Mexico	4.231163	MWC	–	34
35	Baylor	4.033135	BXII	–	35
36	Georgia	3.943476	SEC	–	36
37	Utah State	3.917183	MWC	–	37
38	Oklahoma	3.732318	SEC	–	38
39	Arkansas	3.675357	SEC	–	39
40	West Virginia	3.428187	BXII	–	40
41	Drake	3.238006	MVC	–	41
42	Vanderbilt	3.213614	SEC	–	42
43	Indiana	3.207424	BIG	–	43
44	North Carolina	3.204603	ACC	–	44
45	San Diego State	3.190627	MWC	–	45


46	Xavier	2.972618	BE	–	46
47	Boise State	2.928518	MWC	–	47
48	VCU	2.813678	A10	1	49
49	UC-San Diego	2.803913	BW	-1	48
50	Texas	2.623851	SEC	–	50
51	Colorado State	2.486968	MWC	–	51
52	Wake Forest	2.413612	ACC	–	52
53	San Francisco	2.296779	WCC	–	53
54	Dayton	2.261114	A10	–	54
55	Ohio State	2.247821	BIG	–	55
56	Villanova	2.034567	BE	–	56
57	Nebraska	1.933126	BIG	–	57
58	Cincinnati	1.846909	BXII	–	58
59	UC-Irvine	1.815806	BW	–	59
60	Santa Clara	1.799867	WCC	–	60
61	Stanford	1.671877	ACC	–	61
62	SMU	1.430087	ACC	–	62
63	Liberty	1.326070	CUSA	1	64
64	McNeese	1.314689	SLC	-1	63
65	George Mason	1.314349	A10	–	65
66	Oregon State	1.223889	WCC	–	66
67	St. Joseph’s	1.145335	A10	–	67
68	Bradley	1.122578	MVC	–	68
69	Iowa	1.101772	BIG	–	69
70	North Texas	1.099202	AAC	–	70
71	UCF	1.055724	BXII	–	71
72	Northwestern	0.896520	BIG	–	72
73	TCU	0.878138	BXII	–	73
74	Pittsburgh	0.790404	ACC	–	74
75	Kansas State	0.714969	BXII	–	75
76	UNLV	0.693806	MWC	–	76
77	Arkansas State	0.570086	SunB	–	77
78	Utah	0.458635	BXII	–	78
79	Akron	0.443402	MAC	–	79
80	Rutgers	0.409697	BIG	–	80
81	Yale	0.399648	IVY	–	81
82	Penn State	0.387987	BIG	–	82
83	St. Bonaventure	0.386601	A10	–	83
84	UC-Riverside	0.368223	BW	–	84
85	USC	0.300319	BIG	–	85
86	Georgetown	0.226371	BE	1	87
87	High Point	0.220006	BSo	1	88
88	Georgia Tech	0.156857	ACC	1	89
89	Grand Canyon	0.149767	WAC	2	91
90	Washington State	0.127153	WCC	–	90
91	Lipscomb	0.095948	ASUN	-5	86
92	Arizona State	-0.025802	BXII	–	92
93	Chattanooga	-0.096094	SoCON	–	93
94	Middle Tennessee	-0.101294	CUSA	–	94
95	Colorado	-0.139524	BXII	–	95
96	Troy	-0.143730	SunB	–	96
97	Saint Louis	-0.191318	A10	–	97
98	Utah Valley	-0.207626	WAC	–	98
99	Northern Colorado	-0.306762	BSKY	–	99
100	Minnesota	-0.322675	BIG	–	100
101	UNC-Wilmington	-0.333931	CAA	–	101
102	Montana	-0.349283	BSKY	–	102
103	Northern Iowa	-0.354204	MVC	–	103
104	Loyola-Chicago	-0.357987	A10	–	104
105	Samford	-0.377061	SoCON	–	105
106	Florida State	-0.387578	ACC	–	106


107	Furman	-0.436448	SoCON	–	107
108	LSU	-0.466676	SEC	–	108
109	Washington	-0.479884	BIG	–	109
110	Cal State-Northridge	-0.481201	BW	–	110
111	Butler	-0.521497	BE	–	111
112	North Alabama	-0.526693	ASUN	–	112
113	St. Thomas	-0.540299	SUM	–	113
114	Oklahoma State	-0.581759	BXII	–	114
115	Robert Morris	-0.585064	HZN	–	115
116	Kent State	-0.604844	MAC	–	116
117	Miami-Ohio	-0.612581	MAC	–	117
118	UAB	-0.626993	AAC	8	126
119	Nevada	-0.662032	MWC	-1	118
120	Jacksonville State	-0.707045	CUSA	-1	119
121	Belmont	-0.747980	MVC	-1	120
122	Wichita State	-0.761561	AAC	-1	121
123	Florida Atlantic	-0.774237	AAC	–	123
124	College of Charleston	-0.774307	CAA	-2	122
125	George Washington	-0.816734	A10	-1	124
126	South Dakota State	-0.821029	SUM	-1	125
127	South Alabama	-0.843014	SunB	–	127
128	Towson	-0.854067	CAA	–	128
129	Omaha	-0.875140	SUM	–	129
130	Virginia	-0.942617	ACC	–	130
131	South Carolina	-0.954111	SEC	–	131
132	Wofford	-0.977710	SoCON	–	132
133	Winthrop	-1.005355	BSo	–	133
134	Bryant	-1.046339	AmE	8	142
135	North Dakota State	-1.055469	SUM	-1	134
136	Norfolk State	-1.055779	MEAC	3	139
137	Central Connecticut	-1.063472	NEC	-2	135
138	Louisiana Tech	-1.087912	CUSA	-2	136
139	Milwaukee	-1.096499	HZN	-2	137
140	New Mexico State	-1.106171	CUSA	-2	138
141	UNC-Greensboro	-1.119498	SoCON	-1	140
142	Kennesaw State	-1.123735	CUSA	-1	141
143	Radford	-1.130857	BSo	–	143
144	James Madison	-1.141346	SunB	–	144
145	Illinois-Chicago	-1.163032	MVC	–	145
146	Princeton	-1.267340	IVY	–	146
147	Lamar	-1.282212	SLC	–	147
148	UC-Santa Barbara	-1.318295	BW	–	148
149	Nicholls State	-1.355949	SLC	–	149
150	Loyola Marymount	-1.368406	WCC	–	150


151	UNC-Asheville	-1.377078	BSo	–	151
152	Cleveland State	-1.380985	HZN	–	152
153	Texas A&M-CC	-1.426597	SLC	–	153
154	Jacksonville	-1.457226	ASUN	–	154
155	Cornell	-1.482157	IVY	–	155
156	Illinois State	-1.493143	MVC	–	156
157	Fort Wayne	-1.532492	HZN	–	157
158	Rhode Island	-1.565239	A10	–	158
159	Southern	-1.570883	SWAC	–	159
160	Providence	-1.574417	BE	–	160
161	UTEP	-1.594545	CUSA	–	161
162	Quinnipiac	-1.642716	MAAC	–	162
163	Southeast Missouri State	-1.668811	OVC	–	163
164	Tulane	-1.678805	AAC	–	164
165	Temple	-1.681258	AAC	–	165
166	Marshall	-1.706577	SunB	–	166
167	American	-1.711801	PAT	–	167
168	Western Kentucky	-1.722385	CUSA	–	168
169	East Carolina	-1.734050	AAC	–	169
170	SIU Edwardsville	-1.751249	OVC	–	170
171	Queens	-1.762766	ASUN	–	171
172	Eastern Kentucky	-1.789922	ASUN	–	172
173	Notre Dame	-1.824361	ACC	–	173
174	East Tennessee State	-1.826724	SoCON	–	174
175	Florida Gulf Coast	-1.838206	ASUN	–	175
176	Merrimack	-1.848425	MAAC	–	176
177	DePaul	-1.859419	BE	–	177
178	Youngstown State	-1.886073	HZN	–	178
179	California Baptist	-1.903459	WAC	–	179
180	Vermont	-1.933567	AmE	–	180
181	Toledo	-2.022196	MAC	–	181
182	Appalachian State	-2.034624	SunB	–	182
183	Davidson	-2.092563	A10	–	183
184	South Carolina State	-2.093456	MEAC	–	184
185	Mount St. Mary’s	-2.100170	MAAC	–	185
186	Syracuse	-2.117235	ACC	–	186
187	Maine	-2.134795	CAA	–	187
188	South Dakota	-2.159254	SUM	–	188
189	California	-2.232540	ACC	–	189
190	Longwood	-2.277846	BSo	–	190
191	Portland State	-2.287648	BSKY	–	191
192	Southeastern Louisiana	-2.309987	SLC	–	192
193	Murray State	-2.337492	MVC	–	193
194	Little Rock	-2.392663	OVC	–	194
195	Bucknell	-2.422831	PAT	–	195
196	Marist	-2.454392	MAAC	–	196
197	San Jose State	-2.525964	MWC	–	197
198	Elon	-2.684017	CAA	–	198
199	Virginia Tech	-2.743679	ACC	–	199
200	Alabama State	-2.745755	SWAC	–	200


201	Manhattan	-2.778222	MAAC	–	201
202	Drexel	-2.786126	CAA	–	202
203	North Carolina State	-2.796558	ACC	–	203
204	Bethune-Cookman	-2.847558	SWAC	–	204
205	William & Mary	-2.862398	CAA	–	205
206	Brown	-2.876246	IVY	–	206
207	Seattle	-2.923696	WAC	–	207
209	Northeastern	-2.986948	CAA	–	209
210	Northern Kentucky	-3.057135	HZN	–	210
211	Massachusetts-Lowell	-3.087305	AmE	–	211
212	Duquesne	-3.091878	A10	–	212
213	Cal Poly	-3.101761	BW	–	213
214	Hampton	-3.110386	CAA	–	214
215	Northwestern State	-3.114018	SLC	–	215
216	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	-3.131085	SLC	–	216
217	Northern Arizona	-3.191391	BSKY	–	217
218	Georgia Southern	-3.283288	SunB	–	218
219	Dartmouth	-3.289061	IVY	–	219
220	Oakland	-3.313298	HZN	–	220
221	Ohio	-3.328656	MAC	–	221
222	Idaho State	-3.346332	BSKY	–	222
223	Seton Hall	-3.357993	BE	–	223
224	Texas State	-3.367483	SunB	–	224
225	Wyoming	-3.379023	MWC	–	225
208	Boston College	-2.937205	ACC	–	208
226	Incarnate Word	-3.467360	SLC	–	226
227	Abilene Christian	-3.481117	WAC	–	227
228	La Salle	-3.574675	A10	–	228
229	Sam Houston State	-3.583736	CUSA	–	229
230	Delaware State	-3.609525	MEAC	–	230
231	Hawai’i	-3.617384	BW	–	231
232	Pepperdine	-3.697041	WCC	–	232
233	Jackson State	-3.714596	SWAC	–	233
234	Tennessee State	-3.733140	OVC	–	234
235	Central Michigan	-3.733919	MAC	–	235
236	UC-Davis	-3.739455	BW	–	236
237	Valparaiso	-3.760149	MVC	–	237
238	Southern Illinois	-3.778912	MVC	–	238
239	South Florida	-3.802629	AAC	–	239
240	Long Island	-3.868159	NEC	–	240
241	Indiana State	-3.909354	MVC	–	241
242	Texas-San Antonio	-3.929099	AAC	–	242
243	Albany	-3.945208	AmE	–	243
244	Montana State	-4.013022	BSKY	–	244
245	Army West Point	-4.042074	PAT	–	245
246	North Florida	-4.069138	ASUN	–	246
247	Campbell	-4.158529	CAA	–	247
248	Eastern Michigan	-4.219542	MAC	–	248
249	Iona	-4.253431	MAAC	–	249
250	Massachusetts	-4.255502	A10	–	250


251	Wright State	-4.257200	HZN	–	251
252	Texas Southern	-4.277745	SWAC	–	252
253	Hofstra	-4.291049	CAA	–	253
254	St. Francis (PA)	-4.306123	NEC	–	254
255	Texas-Arlington	-4.374901	WAC	–	255
256	Stephen F. Austin	-4.385153	WAC	–	256
257	Fordham	-4.388151	A10	–	257
258	Georgia State	-4.394636	SunB	–	258
259	Florida A&M	-4.438457	SWAC	–	259
260	Harvard	-4.444691	IVY	–	260
261	Bakersfield	-4.468640	BW	–	261
262	Delaware	-4.486718	CAA	–	262
263	Rice	-4.522022	AAC	–	263
264	Portland	-4.570824	WCC	–	264
265	Austin Peay	-4.574191	ASUN	–	265
266	Boston University	-4.574857	PAT	–	266
267	Tennessee Tech	-4.653936	OVC	–	267
268	Lindenwood	-4.679090	OVC	–	268
269	Columbia	-4.681120	IVY	–	269
270	Idaho	-4.693397	BSKY	–	270
271	Miami	-4.700767	ACC	–	271
272	Presbyterian	-4.722311	BSo	–	272
273	Monmouth	-4.768771	CAA	–	273
274	Colgate	-4.768958	PAT	–	274
275	Evansville	-4.771740	MVC	–	275
276	Kansas City	-4.787984	WAC	–	276
277	Sacred Heart	-4.803424	MAAC	–	277
278	Tulsa	-4.890670	AAC	–	278
279	Morehead State	-4.892732	OVC	–	279
280	VMI	-4.912254	SoCON	–	280
281	Siena	-4.926185	MAAC	–	281
282	Ball State	-4.937821	MAC	–	282
283	Western Michigan	-4.952342	MAC	–	283
284	Old Dominion	-4.965942	SunB	–	284
285	Richmond	-4.973286	A10	–	285
286	Houston Baptist	-4.986522	SLC	–	286
287	Gardner-Webb	-5.005101	BSo	–	287
288	Mercer	-5.034290	SoCON	–	288
289	Stonehill	-5.034793	NEC	–	289
290	Tarleton	-5.085430	WAC	–	290
291	Bowling Green	-5.086181	MAC	–	291
292	Rider	-5.108052	MAAC	–	292
293	North Dakota	-5.117413	SUM	–	293
294	Wagner	-5.165783	NEC	–	294
295	Tennessee-Martin	-5.180095	OVC	–	295
296	Binghamton	-5.223415	AmE	–	296
297	Pacific	-5.236466	WCC	–	297
298	Southern Utah	-5.243249	WAC	–	298
299	North Carolina Central	-5.255148	MEAC	–	299
300	Navy	-5.293631	PAT	–	300


301	Louisiana	-5.306881	SunB	–	301
302	Charlotte	-5.311957	AAC	–	302
303	St. Peter’s	-5.370709	MAAC	–	303
304	Lehigh	-5.394146	PAT	–	304
305	Mercyhurst	-5.395789	NEC	–	305
306	Morgan State	-5.396482	MEAC	–	306
307	Holy Cross	-5.405175	PAT	–	307
308	UMBC	-5.414141	AmE	–	308
309	Pennsylvania	-5.426858	IVY	–	309
310	Fairleigh Dickinson	-5.480505	NEC	–	310
311	Weber State	-5.543201	BSKY	–	311
312	Alcorn State	-5.556959	SWAC	–	312
313	Fresno State	-5.560373	MWC	–	313
314	Lafayette	-5.564316	PAT	–	314
315	Charleston Southern	-5.577776	BSo	–	315
316	Grambling	-5.582357	SWAC	–	316
317	Missouri State	-5.602592	MVC	–	317
318	Eastern Illinois	-5.608497	OVC	–	318
319	Denver	-5.677064	SUM	–	319
320	Howard	-5.697879	MEAC	–	320
321	Eastern Washington	-5.727750	BSKY	–	321
322	Northern Illinois	-5.739079	MAC	–	322
323	Loyola	-5.776946	PAT	–	323
324	Niagara	-5.829916	MAAC	–	324
325	Southern Miss	-5.848434	SunB	–	325
326	Fairfield	-5.879004	MAAC	–	326
327	Florida International	-5.996901	CUSA	–	327
328	IUPUI	-6.054783	HZN	–	328
329	Western Illinois	-6.153165	OVC	–	329
330	Buffalo	-6.165872	MAC	–	330
331	Western Carolina	-6.177648	SoCON	–	331
332	Long Beach State	-6.255543	BW	–	332
333	Central Arkansas	-6.263277	ASUN	–	333
334	Coastal Carolina	-6.452083	SunB	–	334
335	Cal State-Fullerton	-6.473562	BW	–	335
336	San Diego	-6.493450	WCC	–	336
337	Detroit Mercy	-6.499603	HZN	–	337
338	Utah Tech	-6.633950	WAC	–	338
339	Stetson	-6.642746	ASUN	–	339
340	Stony Brook	-6.666418	CAA	–	340
341	Oral Roberts	-6.708303	SUM	–	341
342	Le Moyne	-6.723996	NEC	–	342
343	North Carolina A&T	-6.755008	CAA	–	343
344	Air Force	-6.760445	MWC	–	344
345	Southern Indiana	-6.771501	OVC	–	345
346	New Orleans	-6.905308	SLC	–	346
347	West Georgia	-6.986206	ASUN	–	347
348	USC-Upstate	-7.019928	BSo	–	348
349	East Texas A&M	-7.031174	SLC	–	349
350	New Hampshire	-7.069181	AmE	–	350
351	Coppin State	-7.100746	MEAC	–	351
352	Alabama A&M	-7.131328	SWAC	–	352
353	Sacramento State	-7.178867	BSKY	–	353
354	Louisiana-Monroe	-7.194628	SunB	–	354
355	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-7.267536	SWAC	–	355
356	Chicago State	-7.460676	NEC	–	356
357	Bellarmine	-7.548093	ASUN	–	357
358	Green Bay	-7.619772	HZN	–	358
359	Maryland-Eastern Shore	-7.689012	MEAC	–	359
360	NJIT	-7.744968	WAC	–	360
361	Canisius	-7.874174	MAAC	–	361
362	Prairie View	-7.932096	SWAC	–	362
363	Mississippi Valley	-8.208863	SWAC	–	363
364	Citadel	-8.591702	SoCON	–	364

JNG Once Again at the TOP in 2023!

Accuracy of guessing the Committee (among the dozen final published rating systems on the bracketmatrix.com, 59 published on www.Massey.com on March 17, 2023 or used by the section committee itself, i.e. the KPI and RPI)

TOP TEN

1. JNG – 349 – 67 of 68 teams correct, 43 correct seed, 19 within a seed. (missed Virginia)

2. Bracket Madness – 346– 67 of 68, 42 seeds correct, 19 w/n a seed (missed Virginia)

3. Bart Torvik T-Rank – 344 –66 of 68, 43 seeds correct, 17 w/n a seed (missed Florida Atlantic & Virginia)

4. HaslamMetrics – 339 – 66 of 68 teams correct, 41 seed correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed Texas A&M and Virginia)

5. Benz – 336 – 67 of 68, 37 seed correct, 24 w/n a seed (missed Virginia)

6. Logan – 334 – 66 of 68, 41 seeds correct, 13 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Virginia)

7. Crashing the Dance – 332 – 66 of 68, 38 seeds correct, 20 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Virginia)

8. Crotistics – 327 – 66 of 68, 36 seeds correct, 21 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern & Virginia)

9. INCC – 323 – 66 of 68, 34 seeds correct 23 w/n a seed (missed Florida Atlantic & Virginia)

10. Wilson – 313 – 66 of 68, 31 seeds correct, 22 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Texas A&M)

Other Ratings of Note (either well-known or bracketmatrix submissions)

12. AMSTS – 306 – 66 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 21 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Texas A&M)

13(tie). Brian Wilson – 305 – 65 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 23 w/n a seed (missed TCU, Texas A&M & Virginia)

15. ESPN SOR – 304 – 65 of 68, 31 seeds correct, 16 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)

16. Massey – 303 – 64 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 24 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)

22(tie). KPI – 297 – 65 of 68, 28 seeds correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)

25(tie). KenPom – 295 – 62 of 68, 30 seeds correct, 19 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)

30. Donchess Inference (DRatings) – 291 – Uses formula as a baseline for human ipicks that calculated 346 on backetmatrix. Strict mathematical formula had 63 of 68, 28 seeds correct 18 w/n 1 seed (missed Utah St, Washington St, Nevada, Boise St, Virginia)

33(tie). NCAA NET – 287 – 63 of 68, 24 seeds correct, 26 w/n a seed (missed Washington State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Northwestern, & Virginia)

37. PPI – 281 – 66 of 68, 21 seeds correct, 20 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern & Michigan State)

39(tie). Team Rankings – 279 – 65 of 68, 18 seeds correct, 30 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern, Colorado, & Virginia)

46. RTS – 269 – 62 of 68, 24 seeds correct, 11 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)

50(tie). BPI – 263 – 61 of 68, 32 seeds correct, 16 w/n a seed (missed Colorado, Boise State, Nevada, Virginia, South Carolina, Colorado State, & Utah State)

54. Real Time RPI – 257 – 62 of 68, 21 seeds correct, 8 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State, Northwestern, Texas, Texas A&M, TCU & Virginia)

AP Poll Top 25 – 12 teams exact seed, 10 within 1

Coaches Poll Top 25 – 10 teams exact seed, 13 within 1

JNG CALCULATION METHODOLOGY

The baseline for strength used to be the RPI. The Committee, rightfully or wrongfully, has now switched to the “NET” formula as the primary baseline to determine what a “good win” or a “bad loss” is. To determine this distinction the JNG feeds off a weighted matrix that incorporates the “quadrant” system, influenced by fellow HoopsHD contributor Kyle Lamb, and adopted by the Committee in 2018.

Other factors such as high level wins away from home, wins against “the field,” conference leaders, overall records, out of conference SOS, and “recency bias” are all components that comprise the ratings. The JNG is “advanced” as it recalculates until stabilized. This is a crucial trait as one of the key criteria, “wins against the ‘at large’ field,” is reliant on the rating system repeatedly recalculating upon itself until the exact number that fits an “at large” field that matches up with potential conference champion spots to create a cut line. As mentioned earlier, one can see this critical junction in the ratings listed below with a gap in the list, usually in a spot between 45th and 50th in the ratings. One can use this cut line to easily eyeball a “last 4 in” (above) and “first 4 out” (below) the gap. A similar gap exists on the chart below for the NIT and CBI cutoffs, typically around 85-95 and 105-115 respectively.

HISTORY:

2015: First year of the JNG and showed immediate promise. When nobody thought UCLA should even get close to a bid, the ratings revealed that they actually were in the thick of the discussion (further proof the ratings are meant to mimic the Committee, NOT evaluate merit in a manner that should be adopted).

2016: JNG claims the top spot among ratings. The big surprise by the committee was the inclusion of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and, once again, the JNG called it.

2017: The JNG was perfect and the #1 most accurate rating with a score that rivaled the top human bracketologists. It got all 68 teams correct and 59 of 68 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list released by the Committee. The biggest surprise was not an inclusion but the seeding of Vanderbilt. Many did not even have the Commodores in the field, but the Committee gave them a 9 seed and 33rd overall mimicking the JNG’s 9 seed and 34th overall.

2018: Second only to the KPI among the published ratings with 66 of 68 teams and 60 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list. The JNG not only had the slumping Sooners in the field but nailed their 10 seed on the nose.

2019: JNG reclaimed its top spot. 66 of 68 and 59 within 4 of the seed list (58 within 3 and 52 within 2!). St. John’s was such a surprise, only 2 ratings had them even in the field. The JNG was one of them. Likewise, Arizona St was only in 6 computer fields, and the JNG was one of them. Temple was only in the field in 9 ratings, and the JNG once again caught the outlier. It gets even better considering that Ohio St was one of the 2 “misses” and barely missed the JNG field to UNC-Greensboro. The Committee said UNC-G was one of the first teams out and nobody else human or computer had UNC-G in or near the field.

2020: Most similar to top bracketologists. As we all know there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020 so there was no absolute measuring stick. As a general guide though, the JNG was compared to the top human baracketologists on bracketmatrix.com (of note, the JNG is one of only a dozen formulas accepted as an entrant on the bracketmatrix.com). The JNG was easily the closest to the mean.

2021: JNG still in the top spot. The JNG tied for the top spot with well-respected stat guru Bart Torvik’s T-Rank. While most bracketologists on the bracketmatrix.com missed the inclusion of Wichita St, the JNG nailed the selection and seed perfectly. The only miss was the JNG’s 2nd team out (Utah St).

2022: JNG makes giant leap in score. Not only did the JNG keep its spot as top of class among computer projections, but it also beat the majority of human bracketologists on bracketmatrix.com commanding an impressive 352 score. It was the only computer in the entire world to have Rutgers in its field. Only 40% of all professional human bracketologists had the Scarlet Knights but the JNG had them in.

2023: JNG on top with highest all time score. The JNG made it 7 out of 8 years as the top computer ratings guessing the Committee. The JNG’s improvement led to a score of 359. While most human bracketologists did a simple swap for Princeton’s upset of Yale in the Ivy, the JNG recognized that the Tigers were actually a 15 seed and the Committee agreed. Compared to other computer programs, the JNG did not punish the ACC at the expense of the MWC, correctly identifying the true traits the Committee sees in a resume, not just efficiency ratings, which can be gamed by preseason scheduling. As a result, the JNG did not miss a single seed out of the ACC and MWC participants.

2024: JNG gets highest overall position in its history. It is now 8 out of 9 years running for top computer metric. The seeding once again came in handy as the JNG was one of the only brackets to count UAB’s conference strength in their favor to get a 12. It also correctly did not overstate Sunday results and kept Auburn a 4 and Illinois a 3 despite nice conference tournament wins. This year the JNG surpassed the bracketologists from the ESPN, CBS, the Athletic, FOX, Sports Illustrated, SB Nation, the Sporting News, and USA Today.

We will try to update the ratings daily in the morning during the season so you can see the ebb and flow of where teams land.