Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained
ONCE AGAIN, in 2024 the JNG was the #1 100% Computer-based Metric in predicting the actual NCAA Tournament field IN THE ENTIRE WORLD!
Out of the 11 computer based metrics submitted to bracketmatrix.com; the JNG comes out on top. The JNG also was 13th overall out of ALL the 226 professional brackets submitted only 6 points off the top bracket beating out all household names such as Lunardi and Jerry Palm.
SUMMARY: Joby’s Nitty Gritty (JNG) rankings were created as an attempt to quantify the characteristics the selection committee has always stated and shown to be important as key factors in their analysis. He actually draws from what is known as the “Nitty Gritty Sheet” that the NCAA Selection Committee uses in taking the inputs for the statistics that make up these ratings. This is why it is known as his Nitty Gritty Ratings.
We now a formal seed list gathered from the ratings and submitted to the bracketmatrix.com.
After that list are the ratings for all 364 teams. Once the season begins, if one wants to eyeball the at-large field, look around the 40th-55th spot. The gap there allows one to see who is in and who is out. Similarly the NIT field break can be seen between 75th and 95th. For fun we added a CBI break about 20 spots later. In addition, you may see some daily dramatic jumps and drops around the NIT cut line even if a team does not play due to specific requirements and traits taken that subtly change a team’s merits but have a dramatic effect on their profile.
Latest JNG Seed List January 28, 2025
| SEED | TEAM | Conference |
| 1 | Auburn | SEC |
| 1 | Duke | ACC |
| 1 | Alabama | SEC |
| 1 | Michigan State | BIG |
| 2 | Iowa State | BXII |
| 2 | Florida | SEC |
| 2 | Marquette | BE |
| 2 | Tennessee | SEC |
| 3 | Houston | BXII |
| 3 | Purdue | BIG |
| 3 | Texas A&M | SEC |
| 3 | Oregon | BIG |
| 4 | Kentucky | SEC |
| 4 | Kansas | BXII |
| 4 | Mississippi State | SEC |
| 4 | Illinois | BIG |
| 5 | Wisconsin | BIG |
| 5 | Memphis | AAC |
| 5 | Louisville | ACC |
| 5 | Ole Miss | SEC |
| 6 | St. John’s | BE |
| 6 | Michigan | BIG |
| 6 | Arizona | BXII |
| 6 | Missouri | SEC |
| 7 | Utah State | MWC |
| 7 | Texas Tech | BXII |
| 7 | West Virginia | BXII |
| 7 | UCLA | BIG |
| 8 | Clemson | ACC |
| 8 | Connecticut | BE |
| 8 | Creighton | BE |
| 8 | Baylor | BXII |
| 9 | Maryland | BIG |
| 9 | Gonzaga | WCC |
| 9 | Oklahoma | SEC |
| 9 | Vanderbilt | SEC |
| 10 | St. Mary’s | WCC |
| 10 | San Diego State | MWC |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | ACC |
| 10 | North Carolina | ACC |
| 11 | Georgia | SEC |
| 11 | New Mexico | MWC |
| 11 | Central Florida | BXII |
| 11 | Ohio State | BIG |
| 11 | Texas | SEC |
| 11 | Drake | MVC |
| 12 | UC-Irvine | MVC |
| 12 | Dayton | A10 |
| 12 | McNeese | SLC |
| 12 | Arkansas State | SunB |
| 13 | Samford | SoCON |
| 13 | Middle Tennessee | CUSA |
| 13 | Akron | MAC |
| 13 | Grand Canyon | WAC |
| 14 | Yale | IVY |
| 14 | High Point | BSo |
| 14 | Lipscomb | ASUN |
| 14 | College of Charleston | CAA |
| 15 | North Dakota State | SUM |
| 15 | Milwaukee | HZN |
| 15 | Northern Colorado | BSKY |
| 15 | Norfolk State | MEAC |
| 16 | Marist | MAAC |
| 16 | Central Connecticut | NEC |
| 16 | Southern | SWAC |
| 16 | Massachusetts-Lowell | AmE |
| 16 | Little Rock | OVC |
| 16 | American | PAT |
JNG Ratings – last updated Tuesday January 28 at 11:50am
| RANK | Final Rating | Conf | +/- | Ystdy | |
| 1 | Auburn | 13.427118 | SEC | – | 1 |
| 2 | Duke | 10.656989 | ACC | – | 2 |
| 3 | Alabama | 10.624411 | SEC | – | 3 |
| 4 | Michigan State | 9.876233 | BIG | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Iowa State | 9.840832 | BXII | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Florida | 9.517302 | SEC | – | 6 |
| 7 | Marquette | 9.342410 | BE | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 9.260856 | SEC | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Houston | 8.973554 | BXII | – | 9 |
| 10 | Purdue | 8.683289 | BIG | – | 10 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | 8.363138 | SEC | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Oregon | 8.257209 | BIG | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Kentucky | 8.252122 | SEC | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Kansas | 8.160796 | BXII | – | 14 |
| 15 | Mississippi State | 7.620534 | SEC | – | 15 |
| 16 | Illinois | 7.323214 | BIG | – | 16 |
| 17 | Wisconsin | 7.323081 | BIG | – | 17 |
| 18 | Memphis | 7.250907 | AAC | 1 | 19 |
| 19 | Louisville | 6.793934 | ACC | 1 | 20 |
| 20 | Ole Miss | 6.790155 | SEC | -2 | 18 |
| 21 | St. John’s | 6.694553 | BE | 1 | 22 |
| 22 | Michigan | 6.385366 | BIG | -1 | 21 |
| 23 | Arizona | 6.333693 | BXII | 1 | 24 |
| 24 | Missouri | 6.193138 | SEC | -1 | 23 |
| 25 | Utah State | 5.949316 | MWC | – | 25 |
| 26 | Texas Tech | 5.723320 | BXII | 3 | 29 |
| 27 | West Virginia | 5.704799 | BXII | -1 | 26 |
| 28 | UCLA | 5.684431 | BIG | 2 | 30 |
| 29 | Clemson | 5.646131 | ACC | -2 | 27 |
| 30 | Connecticut | 5.361155 | BE | -2 | 28 |
| 31 | Creighton | 5.111693 | BE | – | 31 |
| 32 | Baylor | 5.038959 | BXII | – | 32 |
| 33 | Maryland | 4.944106 | BIG | – | 33 |
| 34 | Gonzaga | 4.864843 | WCC | – | 34 |
| 35 | Oklahoma | 4.658388 | SEC | 1 | 36 |
| 36 | Vanderbilt | 4.566328 | SEC | 1 | 37 |
| 37 | St. Mary’s | 4.522261 | WCC | -2 | 35 |
| 38 | San Diego State | 4.375803 | MWC | – | 38 |
| 39 | Pittsburgh | 4.165255 | ACC | – | 39 |
| 40 | North Carolina | 4.017869 | ACC | – | 40 |
| 41 | Georgia | 3.965263 | SEC | – | 41 |
| 42 | New Mexico | 3.849917 | MWC | – | 42 |
| 43 | Central Florida | 3.788603 | BXII | – | 43 |
| 44 | Ohio State | 3.731062 | BIG | 1 | 45 |
| 45 | Texas | 3.557931 | SEC | -1 | 44 |
| 46 | Drake | 3.378772 | MVC | – | 46 |
| 47 | Wake Forest | 3.245271 | ACC | – | 47 |
| 48 | UC-Irvine | 3.068409 | BW | – | 48 |
| 49 | Xavier | 2.925722 | BE | – | 49 |
| 50 | Santa Clara | 2.720006 | WCC | 1 | 51 |
| 51 | Dayton | 2.702751 | A10 | -1 | 50 |
| 52 | Indiana | 2.674973 | BIG | 1 | 53 |
| 53 | Arizona State | 2.476598 | BXII | 3 | 56 |
| 54 | Bradley | 2.463699 | MVC | – | 54 |
| 55 | North Texas | 2.463481 | AAC | – | 55 |
| 56 | Stanford | 2.443366 | ACC | -4 | 52 |
| 57 | Boise State | 2.404026 | MWC | 1 | 58 |
| 58 | Oregon State | 2.343581 | WCC | 1 | 59 |
| 59 | McNeese | 2.295869 | SLC | 2 | 61 |
| 60 | SMU | 2.280730 | ACC | – | 60 |
| 61 | San Francisco | 2.248218 | WCC | 1 | 62 |
| 62 | UC-San Diego | 2.221646 | BW | 1 | 63 |
| 63 | Washington State | 2.053644 | WCC | 1 | 64 |
| 64 | Nebraska | 2.043523 | BIG | 1 | 65 |
| 65 | USC | 1.934993 | BIG | -8 | 57 |
| 66 | Arkansas | 1.924677 | SEC | – | 66 |
| 67 | VCU | 1.841595 | A10 | 1 | 68 |
| 68 | Iowa | 1.741036 | BIG | -1 | 67 |
| 69 | Cincinnati | 1.718540 | BXII | – | 69 |
| 70 | BYU | 1.678172 | BXII | – | 70 |
| 71 | Northwestern | 1.632626 | BIG | – | 71 |
| 72 | George Mason | 1.618095 | A10 | – | 72 |
| 73 | LSU | 1.577032 | SEC | – | 73 |
| 74 | Penn State | 1.423927 | BIG | – | 74 |
| 75 | Florida State | 1.305398 | ACC | – | 75 |
| 76 | Arkansas State | 1.233344 | SunB | – | 76 |
| 77 | Villanova | 1.203280 | BE | – | 77 |
| 78 | Samford | 1.164818 | SoCON | – | 78 |
| 79 | Colorado State | 1.128788 | MWC | – | 79 |
| 80 | Georgetown | 0.960892 | BE | – | 80 |
| 81 | UNLV | 0.545285 | MWC | – | 81 |
| 82 | Middle Tennessee | 0.539576 | CUSA | – | 82 |
| 83 | TCU | 0.473889 | BXII | – | 83 |
| 84 | Minnesota | 0.445526 | BIG | – | 84 |
| 85 | Liberty | 0.424837 | CUSA | 4 | 89 |
| 86 | Utah | 0.411532 | BXII | 1 | 87 |
| 87 | UC-Riverside | 0.407561 | BW | 1 | 88 |
| 88 | Akron | 0.401603 | MAC | -2 | 86 |
| 89 | Grand Canyon | 0.342322 | WAC | 1 | 90 |
| 90 | Yale | 0.310112 | IVY | -5 | 85 |
| 91 | High Point | 0.269385 | BSo | – | 91 |
| 92 | St. Joseph’s | 0.238871 | A10 | – | 92 |
| 93 | Lipscomb | 0.216476 | ASUN | – | 93 |
| 94 | Illinois-Chicago | 0.135295 | MVC | – | 94 |
| 95 | Utah Valley | -0.178348 | WAC | 7 | 102 |
| 96 | Rutgers | -0.197830 | BIG | -1 | 95 |
| 97 | Belmont | -0.255544 | MVC | -1 | 96 |
| 98 | Troy | -0.296066 | SunB | 2 | 100 |
| 99 | St. Bonaventure | -0.330853 | A10 | -2 | 97 |
| 100 | College of Charleston | -0.373505 | CAA | -2 | 98 |
| 101 | UTEP | -0.395330 | CUSA | -2 | 99 |
| 102 | North Dakota State | -0.434319 | SUM | -1 | 101 |
| 103 | St. Thomas | -0.462308 | SUM | – | 103 |
| 104 | South Dakota State | -0.479903 | SUM | – | 104 |
| 105 | UNC-Wilmington | -0.505954 | CAA | – | 105 |
| 106 | Milwaukee | -0.521998 | HZN | – | 106 |
| 107 | Northern Colorado | -0.533793 | BSKY | – | 107 |
| 108 | Furman | -0.591941 | SoCON | 1 | 109 |
| 109 | Nevada | -0.612686 | MWC | 2 | 111 |
| 110 | Louisiana Tech | -0.656399 | CUSA | 2 | 112 |
| 111 | Miami-Ohio | -0.661268 | MAC | 2 | 113 |
| 112 | Temple | -0.672551 | AAC | 4 | 116 |
| 113 | Jacksonville | -0.695297 | ASUN | 2 | 115 |
| 114 | Northern Iowa | -0.702371 | MVC | 3 | 117 |
| 115 | Loyola Marymount | -0.705452 | WCC | 3 | 118 |
| 116 | Saint Louis | -0.757577 | A10 | -2 | 114 |
| 117 | Fort Wayne | -0.761612 | HZN | 2 | 119 |
| 118 | UNC-Greensboro | -0.790634 | SoCON | 2 | 120 |
| 119 | Jacksonville State | -0.813649 | CUSA | 3 | 122 |
| 120 | California | -0.826362 | ACC | 1 | 121 |
| 121 | Cal State-Northridge | -0.835537 | BW | 2 | 123 |
| 122 | Butler | -0.837652 | BE | 2 | 124 |
| 123 | Western Kentucky | -0.852198 | CUSA | 3 | 126 |
| 124 | Princeton | -0.876598 | IVY | 1 | 125 |
| 125 | Rhode Island | -0.885914 | A10 | 2 | 127 |
| 126 | Providence | -0.892557 | BE | 3 | 129 |
| 127 | Cleveland State | -0.930771 | HZN | 1 | 128 |
| 128 | Davidson | -0.991130 | A10 | 2 | 130 |
| 129 | Appalachian State | -1.030995 | SunB | 4 | 133 |
| 130 | Kent State | -1.032899 | MAC | 1 | 131 |
| 131 | South Alabama | -1.057511 | SunB | -23 | 108 |
| 132 | North Alabama | -1.071219 | ASUN | 2 | 134 |
| 133 | Elon | -1.091952 | CAA | 2 | 135 |
| 134 | UNC-Asheville | -1.110958 | BSo | 3 | 137 |
| 135 | Radford | -1.114034 | BSo | 1 | 136 |
| 136 | Norfolk State | -1.130410 | MEAC | 2 | 138 |
| 137 | Texas A&M-CC | -1.160507 | SLC | -5 | 132 |
| 138 | Chattanooga | -1.204418 | SoCON | 1 | 139 |
| 139 | Longwood | -1.216589 | BSo | 2 | 141 |
| 140 | George Washington | -1.240554 | A10 | – | 140 |
| 141 | South Carolina | -1.302360 | SEC | 1 | 142 |
| 142 | Montana | -1.365460 | BSKY | 2 | 144 |
| 143 | Oklahoma State | -1.365793 | BXII | – | 143 |
| 144 | Marist | -1.379683 | MAAC | 2 | 146 |
| 145 | Washington | -1.387869 | BIG | -35 | 110 |
| 146 | Loyola-Chicago | -1.401467 | A10 | -1 | 145 |
| 147 | Illinois State | -1.425545 | MVC | – | 147 |
| 148 | UAB | -1.552696 | AAC | – | 148 |
| 149 | Murray State | -1.620943 | MVC | 1 | 150 |
| 150 | Kennesaw State | -1.629113 | CUSA | 1 | 151 |
| 151 | New Mexico State | -1.637133 | CUSA | 1 | 152 |
| 152 | Central Connecticut | -1.732567 | NEC | 1 | 153 |
| 153 | Towson | -1.749313 | CAA | 27 | 180 |
| 154 | Southern | -1.754189 | SWAC | 15 | 169 |
| 155 | Colorado | -1.761004 | BXII | – | 155 |
| 156 | UC-Santa Barbara | -1.762977 | BW | -2 | 154 |
| 157 | Cornell | -1.777198 | IVY | -1 | 156 |
| 158 | Quinnipiac | -1.825839 | MAAC | -1 | 157 |
| 159 | Robert Morris | -1.866117 | HZN | 2 | 161 |
| 160 | Omaha | -1.868224 | SUM | -2 | 158 |
| 161 | William & Mary | -1.886919 | CAA | 1 | 162 |
| 162 | Massachusetts-Lowell | -1.894562 | AmE | -3 | 159 |
| 163 | James Madison | -1.896114 | SunB | -3 | 160 |
| 164 | Merrimack | -1.896414 | MAAC | -1 | 163 |
| 165 | Hawai’i | -1.917573 | BW | -1 | 164 |
| 166 | Toledo | -1.923319 | MAC | – | 166 |
| 167 | La Salle | -1.948460 | A10 | -2 | 165 |
| 168 | Texas State | -1.965889 | SunB | 5 | 173 |
| 169 | Ohio | -1.987124 | MAC | -1 | 168 |
| 170 | Bryant | -1.997589 | AmE | -3 | 167 |
| 171 | UC-Davis | -2.051761 | BW | -1 | 170 |
| 172 | Marshall | -2.053062 | SunB | – | 172 |
| 173 | Winthrop | -2.063772 | BSo | -2 | 171 |
| 174 | Notre Dame | -2.091553 | ACC | – | 174 |
| 175 | Little Rock | -2.114832 | OVC | -26 | 149 |
| 176 | Wichita State | -2.140736 | AAC | 1 | 177 |
| 177 | Portland State | -2.146115 | BSKY | -1 | 176 |
| 178 | Maine | -2.204106 | CAA | – | 178 |
| 179 | SIU Edwardsville | -2.231737 | OVC | – | 179 |
| 180 | Columbia | -2.235567 | IVY | 1 | 181 |
| 181 | Kansas State | -2.275014 | BXII | 1 | 182 |
| 182 | East Carolina | -2.305262 | AAC | 1 | 183 |
| 183 | East Tennessee State | -2.369051 | SoCON | 3 | 186 |
| 184 | Queens | -2.371088 | ASUN | 1 | 185 |
| 185 | Nicholls State | -2.381653 | SLC | 8 | 193 |
| 186 | Morehead State | -2.398707 | OVC | 1 | 187 |
| 187 | Wofford | -2.559755 | SoCON | 1 | 188 |
| 188 | Lamar | -2.574458 | SLC | 9 | 197 |
| 189 | Youngstown State | -2.659135 | HZN | 2 | 191 |
| 190 | Southeastern Louisiana | -2.673424 | SLC | -15 | 175 |
| 191 | Florida Atlantic | -2.675588 | AAC | -1 | 190 |
| 192 | Tulane | -2.695804 | AAC | -3 | 189 |
| 193 | American | -2.732170 | PAT | -1 | 192 |
| 194 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley | -2.823788 | SLC | -10 | 184 |
| 196 | Florida Gulf Coast | -2.863402 | ASUN | -2 | 194 |
| 195 | DePaul | -2.841449 | BE | – | 195 |
| 197 | Syracuse | -2.905768 | ACC | -1 | 196 |
| 198 | Drexel | -3.026200 | CAA | – | 198 |
| 199 | Virginia | -3.041753 | ACC | 1 | 200 |
| 200 | Hofstra | -3.207818 | CAA | 1 | 201 |
| 201 | Rice | -3.224213 | AAC | 1 | 202 |
| 202 | Northern Arizona | -3.233260 | BSKY | 1 | 203 |
| 203 | North Carolina State | -3.306912 | ACC | 1 | 204 |
| 204 | California Baptist | -3.307539 | WAC | 2 | 206 |
| 205 | Wyoming | -3.312690 | MWC | – | 205 |
| 206 | South Dakota | -3.528883 | SUM | 1 | 207 |
| 207 | Brown | -3.551129 | IVY | 1 | 208 |
| 208 | Georgia Tech | -3.696605 | ACC | 1 | 209 |
| 209 | Mount St. Mary’s | -3.759797 | MAAC | 1 | 210 |
| 210 | Northeastern | -3.799834 | CAA | -11 | 199 |
| 211 | San Jose State | -3.830264 | MWC | – | 211 |
| 212 | South Florida | -3.968408 | AAC | – | 212 |
| 213 | Virginia Tech | -4.031784 | ACC | – | 213 |
| 214 | Southeast Missouri State | -4.065261 | OVC | – | 214 |
| 215 | Wright State | -4.113390 | HZN | – | 215 |
| 216 | Georgia Southern | -4.155158 | SunB | – | 216 |
| 217 | Central Michigan | -4.214670 | MAC | – | 217 |
| 218 | Duquesne | -4.279643 | A10 | 1 | 219 |
| 219 | Army West Point | -4.291976 | PAT | -1 | 218 |
| 220 | Delaware | -4.298996 | CAA | – | 220 |
| 221 | Texas-San Antonio | -4.389289 | AAC | – | 221 |
| 222 | Vermont | -4.479356 | AmE | – | 222 |
| 223 | Oakland | -4.518595 | HZN | 1 | 224 |
| 224 | Wagner | -4.588398 | NEC | 1 | 225 |
| 225 | UMBC | -4.597786 | AmE | 1 | 226 |
| 226 | Massachusetts | -4.621857 | A10 | 1 | 227 |
| 227 | Valparaiso | -4.659478 | MVC | 2 | 229 |
| 228 | Eastern Kentucky | -4.817852 | ASUN | 2 | 230 |
| 229 | Pepperdine | -4.848917 | WCC | 2 | 231 |
| 230 | Southern Illinois | -4.849960 | MVC | 2 | 232 |
| 231 | Northwestern State | -4.903550 | SLC | -8 | 223 |
| 232 | Seton Hall | -4.910592 | BE | 3 | 235 |
| 233 | North Florida | -4.924948 | ASUN | – | 233 |
| 234 | Boston College | -4.944998 | ACC | 2 | 236 |
| 235 | Seattle | -4.954433 | WAC | -1 | 234 |
| 236 | Eastern Michigan | -4.977684 | MAC | 1 | 237 |
| 237 | Sam Houston State | -4.984425 | CUSA | 1 | 238 |
| 238 | Houston Baptist | -4.995106 | SLC | 7 | 245 |
| 239 | Idaho State | -5.025434 | BSKY | – | 239 |
| 240 | Fordham | -5.066381 | A10 | – | 240 |
| 241 | Campbell | -5.092229 | CAA | – | 241 |
| 242 | Texas-Arlington | -5.261447 | WAC | 1 | 243 |
| 243 | Hampton | -5.265940 | CAA | -1 | 242 |
| 244 | Cal Poly | -5.308261 | BW | – | 244 |
| 245 | Indiana State | -5.347328 | MVC | 1 | 246 |
| 246 | Kansas City | -5.348550 | WAC | 1 | 247 |
| 247 | Holy Cross | -5.399580 | PAT | -19 | 228 |
| 248 | Delaware State | -5.464146 | MEAC | 1 | 249 |
| 249 | Texas Southern | -5.469730 | SWAC | 24 | 273 |
| 250 | Manhattan | -5.473012 | MAAC | – | 250 |
| 251 | Colgate | -5.518160 | PAT | – | 251 |
| 252 | Stonehill | -5.520159 | NEC | – | 252 |
| 253 | Abilene Christian | -5.565816 | WAC | 3 | 256 |
| 254 | Gardner-Webb | -5.567611 | BSo | -1 | 253 |
| 255 | Bakersfield | -5.580962 | BW | -1 | 254 |
| 256 | Idaho | -5.606324 | BSKY | -1 | 255 |
| 257 | Tennessee Tech | -5.642617 | OVC | – | 257 |
| 258 | Albany | -5.671840 | AmE | – | 258 |
| 259 | Boston University | -5.679916 | PAT | 31 | 290 |
| 260 | Montana State | -5.702310 | BSKY | -1 | 259 |
| 261 | Stephen F. Austin | -5.751488 | WAC | 6 | 267 |
| 262 | Siena | -5.828727 | MAAC | -2 | 260 |
| 263 | Northern Kentucky | -5.829792 | HZN | -1 | 262 |
| 264 | South Carolina State | -5.830023 | MEAC | -3 | 261 |
| 265 | Tarleton | -5.872037 | WAC | -1 | 264 |
| 266 | Bethune-Cookman | -5.890321 | SWAC | -18 | 248 |
| 267 | Incarnate Word | -5.911707 | SLC | 10 | 277 |
| 268 | Bucknell | -5.982962 | PAT | -2 | 266 |
| 269 | Southern Utah | -5.986315 | WAC | -1 | 268 |
| 270 | Mercer | -5.996124 | SoCON | -1 | 269 |
| 271 | Weber State | -6.000786 | BSKY | – | 271 |
| 272 | Dartmouth | -6.028570 | IVY | -2 | 270 |
| 273 | Austin Peay | -6.030426 | ASUN | -1 | 272 |
| 274 | Southern Miss | -6.069004 | SunB | -9 | 265 |
| 275 | Richmond | -6.175614 | A10 | -1 | 274 |
| 276 | Florida A&M | -6.190282 | SWAC | 11 | 287 |
| 277 | Evansville | -6.216128 | MVC | -2 | 275 |
| 278 | Tennessee-Martin | -6.282955 | OVC | -2 | 276 |
| 279 | North Carolina Central | -6.299014 | MEAC | – | 279 |
| 280 | Alabama State | -6.313116 | SWAC | -17 | 263 |
| 281 | Lehigh | -6.326767 | PAT | – | 281 |
| 282 | St. Peter’s | -6.339703 | MAAC | -2 | 280 |
| 283 | Pennsylvania | -6.362177 | IVY | -1 | 282 |
| 284 | Charlotte | -6.388147 | AAC | -1 | 283 |
| 285 | Sacred Heart | -6.436770 | MAAC | -1 | 284 |
| 286 | Ball State | -6.447591 | MAC | -1 | 285 |
| 287 | Miami | -6.464794 | ACC | -1 | 286 |
| 288 | Missouri State | -6.504507 | MVC | 1 | 289 |
| 289 | Fresno State | -6.511373 | MWC | -1 | 288 |
| 290 | Long Island | -6.545245 | NEC | 1 | 291 |
| 291 | Fairleigh Dickinson | -6.552248 | NEC | 1 | 292 |
| 292 | Presbyterian | -6.595934 | BSo | 1 | 293 |
| 293 | Howard | -6.636771 | MEAC | 3 | 296 |
| 294 | Tulsa | -6.648580 | AAC | 1 | 295 |
| 295 | Jackson State | -6.664036 | SWAC | -17 | 278 |
| 296 | North Dakota | -6.697621 | SUM | 1 | 297 |
| 297 | St. Francis (PA) | -6.702746 | NEC | 2 | 299 |
| 298 | Old Dominion | -6.709438 | SunB | – | 298 |
| 299 | Iona | -6.750041 | MAAC | 1 | 300 |
| 300 | Harvard | -6.784493 | IVY | -6 | 294 |
| 301 | VMI | -6.810995 | SoCON | – | 301 |
| 302 | Georgia State | -6.859103 | SunB | 1 | 303 |
| 303 | Lindenwood | -6.860412 | OVC | -1 | 302 |
| 304 | Portland | -6.923007 | WCC | 2 | 306 |
| 305 | Eastern Washington | -6.958013 | BSKY | -1 | 304 |
| 306 | Long Beach State | -6.981970 | BW | -1 | 305 |
| 307 | Charleston Southern | -7.053112 | BSo | 3 | 310 |
| 308 | Loyola | -7.055239 | PAT | 4 | 312 |
| 309 | Pacific | -7.074675 | WCC | -2 | 307 |
| 310 | Tennessee State | -7.080685 | OVC | -2 | 308 |
| 311 | Rider | -7.081024 | MAAC | -2 | 309 |
| 312 | Cal State-Fullerton | -7.096875 | BW | -1 | 311 |
| 313 | Monmouth | -7.147431 | CAA | – | 313 |
| 314 | Utah Tech | -7.167629 | WAC | – | 314 |
| 315 | Binghamton | -7.194359 | AmE | – | 315 |
| 316 | Southern Indiana | -7.244981 | OVC | 1 | 317 |
| 317 | Fairfield | -7.251107 | MAAC | -1 | 316 |
| 318 | Morgan State | -7.314006 | MEAC | 2 | 320 |
| 319 | Florida International | -7.326671 | CUSA | – | 319 |
| 320 | Lafayette | -7.376269 | PAT | -2 | 318 |
| 321 | Western Michigan | -7.432137 | MAC | 1 | 322 |
| 322 | Western Carolina | -7.480194 | SoCON | 2 | 324 |
| 323 | Stetson | -7.480624 | ASUN | – | 323 |
| 324 | Detroit Mercy | -7.521650 | HZN | 1 | 325 |
| 325 | Bowling Green | -7.538624 | MAC | 1 | 326 |
| 326 | New Orleans | -7.622634 | SLC | -5 | 321 |
| 327 | Coastal Carolina | -7.647160 | SunB | 2 | 329 |
| 328 | Denver | -7.652775 | SUM | – | 328 |
| 329 | Navy | -7.663922 | PAT | 2 | 331 |
| 330 | Mercyhurst | -7.672401 | NEC | -3 | 327 |
| 331 | Le Moyne | -7.687726 | NEC | -1 | 330 |
| 332 | Niagara | -7.758634 | MAAC | – | 332 |
| 333 | Sacramento State | -7.789412 | BSKY | – | 333 |
| 334 | Eastern Illinois | -7.891585 | OVC | 16 | 350 |
| 335 | Western Illinois | -7.892345 | OVC | -1 | 334 |
| 336 | Louisiana | -7.901155 | SunB | -1 | 335 |
| 337 | San Diego | -7.943541 | WCC | -1 | 336 |
| 338 | Buffalo | -7.988016 | MAC | -1 | 337 |
| 339 | Alcorn State | -8.001299 | SWAC | 2 | 341 |
| 340 | Grambling | -8.117090 | SWAC | 9 | 349 |
| 341 | Northern Illinois | -8.132860 | MAC | -2 | 339 |
| 342 | IUPUI | -8.180558 | HZN | -4 | 338 |
| 343 | Stony Brook | -8.313732 | CAA | -3 | 340 |
| 344 | West Georgia | -8.368463 | ASUN | -2 | 342 |
| 345 | Central Arkansas | -8.493633 | ASUN | -2 | 343 |
| 346 | Oral Roberts | -8.514142 | SUM | -2 | 344 |
| 347 | Air Force | -8.604121 | MWC | -2 | 345 |
| 348 | USC-Upstate | -8.789396 | BSo | -2 | 346 |
| 349 | Alabama A&M | -8.862819 | SWAC | 4 | 353 |
| 350 | North Carolina A&T | -8.889758 | CAA | -2 | 348 |
| 351 | Louisiana-Monroe | -9.054599 | SunB | 5 | 356 |
| 352 | Prairie View | -9.061404 | SWAC | -5 | 347 |
| 353 | Coppin State | -9.200113 | MEAC | -2 | 351 |
| 354 | New Hampshire | -9.311823 | AmE | – | 354 |
| 355 | East Texas A&M | -9.415193 | SLC | -3 | 352 |
| 356 | NJIT | -9.467858 | WAC | -1 | 355 |
| 357 | Green Bay | -9.632367 | HZN | – | 357 |
| 358 | Chicago State | -9.775907 | NEC | – | 358 |
| 359 | Citadel | -10.011451 | SoCON | – | 359 |
| 360 | Maryland-Eastern Shore | -10.047252 | MEAC | – | 360 |
| 361 | Bellarmine | -10.167438 | ASUN | – | 361 |
| 362 | Canisius | -10.286172 | MAAC | 2 | 364 |
| 363 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -10.353499 | SWAC | -1 | 362 |
| 364 | Mississippi Valley | -10.436270 | SWAC | -1 | 363 |
JNG Once Again at the TOP in 2023!
Accuracy of guessing the Committee (among the dozen final published rating systems on the bracketmatrix.com, 59 published on www.Massey.com on March 17, 2023 or used by the section committee itself, i.e. the KPI and RPI)
TOP TEN
1. JNG – 349 – 67 of 68 teams correct, 43 correct seed, 19 within a seed. (missed Virginia)
2. Bracket Madness – 346– 67 of 68, 42 seeds correct, 19 w/n a seed (missed Virginia)
3. Bart Torvik T-Rank – 344 –66 of 68, 43 seeds correct, 17 w/n a seed (missed Florida Atlantic & Virginia)
4. HaslamMetrics – 339 – 66 of 68 teams correct, 41 seed correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed Texas A&M and Virginia)
5. Benz – 336 – 67 of 68, 37 seed correct, 24 w/n a seed (missed Virginia)
6. Logan – 334 – 66 of 68, 41 seeds correct, 13 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Virginia)
7. Crashing the Dance – 332 – 66 of 68, 38 seeds correct, 20 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Virginia)
8. Crotistics – 327 – 66 of 68, 36 seeds correct, 21 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern & Virginia)
9. INCC – 323 – 66 of 68, 34 seeds correct 23 w/n a seed (missed Florida Atlantic & Virginia)
10. Wilson – 313 – 66 of 68, 31 seeds correct, 22 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Texas A&M)
Other Ratings of Note (either well-known or bracketmatrix submissions)
12. AMSTS – 306 – 66 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 21 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Texas A&M)
13(tie). Brian Wilson – 305 – 65 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 23 w/n a seed (missed TCU, Texas A&M & Virginia)
15. ESPN SOR – 304 – 65 of 68, 31 seeds correct, 16 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
16. Massey – 303 – 64 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 24 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
22(tie). KPI – 297 – 65 of 68, 28 seeds correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
25(tie). KenPom – 295 – 62 of 68, 30 seeds correct, 19 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
30. Donchess Inference (DRatings) – 291 – Uses formula as a baseline for human ipicks that calculated 346 on backetmatrix. Strict mathematical formula had 63 of 68, 28 seeds correct 18 w/n 1 seed (missed Utah St, Washington St, Nevada, Boise St, Virginia)
33(tie). NCAA NET – 287 – 63 of 68, 24 seeds correct, 26 w/n a seed (missed Washington State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Northwestern, & Virginia)
37. PPI – 281 – 66 of 68, 21 seeds correct, 20 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern & Michigan State)
39(tie). Team Rankings – 279 – 65 of 68, 18 seeds correct, 30 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern, Colorado, & Virginia)
46. RTS – 269 – 62 of 68, 24 seeds correct, 11 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
50(tie). BPI – 263 – 61 of 68, 32 seeds correct, 16 w/n a seed (missed Colorado, Boise State, Nevada, Virginia, South Carolina, Colorado State, & Utah State)
54. Real Time RPI – 257 – 62 of 68, 21 seeds correct, 8 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State, Northwestern, Texas, Texas A&M, TCU & Virginia)
AP Poll Top 25 – 12 teams exact seed, 10 within 1
Coaches Poll Top 25 – 10 teams exact seed, 13 within 1
JNG CALCULATION METHODOLOGY
The baseline for strength used to be the RPI. The Committee, rightfully or wrongfully, has now switched to the “NET” formula as the primary baseline to determine what a “good win” or a “bad loss” is. To determine this distinction the JNG feeds off a weighted matrix that incorporates the “quadrant” system, influenced by fellow HoopsHD contributor Kyle Lamb, and adopted by the Committee in 2018.
Other factors such as high level wins away from home, wins against “the field,” conference leaders, overall records, out of conference SOS, and “recency bias” are all components that comprise the ratings. The JNG is “advanced” as it recalculates until stabilized. This is a crucial trait as one of the key criteria, “wins against the ‘at large’ field,” is reliant on the rating system repeatedly recalculating upon itself until the exact number that fits an “at large” field that matches up with potential conference champion spots to create a cut line. As mentioned earlier, one can see this critical junction in the ratings listed below with a gap in the list, usually in a spot between 45th and 50th in the ratings. One can use this cut line to easily eyeball a “last 4 in” (above) and “first 4 out” (below) the gap. A similar gap exists on the chart below for the NIT and CBI cutoffs, typically around 85-95 and 105-115 respectively.
HISTORY:
2015: First year of the JNG and showed immediate promise. When nobody thought UCLA should even get close to a bid, the ratings revealed that they actually were in the thick of the discussion (further proof the ratings are meant to mimic the Committee, NOT evaluate merit in a manner that should be adopted).
2016: JNG claims the top spot among ratings. The big surprise by the committee was the inclusion of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and, once again, the JNG called it.
2017: The JNG was perfect and the #1 most accurate rating with a score that rivaled the top human bracketologists. It got all 68 teams correct and 59 of 68 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list released by the Committee. The biggest surprise was not an inclusion but the seeding of Vanderbilt. Many did not even have the Commodores in the field, but the Committee gave them a 9 seed and 33rd overall mimicking the JNG’s 9 seed and 34th overall.
2018: Second only to the KPI among the published ratings with 66 of 68 teams and 60 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list. The JNG not only had the slumping Sooners in the field but nailed their 10 seed on the nose.
2019: JNG reclaimed its top spot. 66 of 68 and 59 within 4 of the seed list (58 within 3 and 52 within 2!). St. John’s was such a surprise, only 2 ratings had them even in the field. The JNG was one of them. Likewise, Arizona St was only in 6 computer fields, and the JNG was one of them. Temple was only in the field in 9 ratings, and the JNG once again caught the outlier. It gets even better considering that Ohio St was one of the 2 “misses” and barely missed the JNG field to UNC-Greensboro. The Committee said UNC-G was one of the first teams out and nobody else human or computer had UNC-G in or near the field.
2020: Most similar to top bracketologists. As we all know there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020 so there was no absolute measuring stick. As a general guide though, the JNG was compared to the top human baracketologists on bracketmatrix.com (of note, the JNG is one of only a dozen formulas accepted as an entrant on the bracketmatrix.com). The JNG was easily the closest to the mean.
2021: JNG still in the top spot. The JNG tied for the top spot with well-respected stat guru Bart Torvik’s T-Rank. While most bracketologists on the bracketmatrix.com missed the inclusion of Wichita St, the JNG nailed the selection and seed perfectly. The only miss was the JNG’s 2nd team out (Utah St).
2022: JNG makes giant leap in score. Not only did the JNG keep its spot as top of class among computer projections, but it also beat the majority of human bracketologists on bracketmatrix.com commanding an impressive 352 score. It was the only computer in the entire world to have Rutgers in its field. Only 40% of all professional human bracketologists had the Scarlet Knights but the JNG had them in.
2023: JNG on top with highest all time score. The JNG made it 7 out of 8 years as the top computer ratings guessing the Committee. The JNG’s improvement led to a score of 359. While most human bracketologists did a simple swap for Princeton’s upset of Yale in the Ivy, the JNG recognized that the Tigers were actually a 15 seed and the Committee agreed. Compared to other computer programs, the JNG did not punish the ACC at the expense of the MWC, correctly identifying the true traits the Committee sees in a resume, not just efficiency ratings, which can be gamed by preseason scheduling. As a result, the JNG did not miss a single seed out of the ACC and MWC participants.
2024: JNG gets highest overall position in its history. It is now 8 out of 9 years running for top computer metric. The seeding once again came in handy as the JNG was one of the only brackets to count UAB’s conference strength in their favor to get a 12. It also correctly did not overstate Sunday results and kept Auburn a 4 and Illinois a 3 despite nice conference tournament wins. This year the JNG surpassed the bracketologists from the ESPN, CBS, the Athletic, FOX, Sports Illustrated, SB Nation, the Sporting News, and USA Today.
We will try to update the ratings daily in the morning during the season so you can see the ebb and flow of where teams land.