Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained
ONCE AGAIN, in 2024 the JNG was the #1 100% Computer-based Metric in predicting the actual NCAA Tournament field IN THE ENTIRE WORLD!
Out of the 11 computer based metrics submitted to bracketmatrix.com; the JNG comes out on top. The JNG also was 13th overall out of ALL the 226 professional brackets submitted only 6 points off the top bracket beating out all household names such as Lunardi and Jerry Palm.
SUMMARY: Joby’s Nitty Gritty (JNG) rankings were created as an attempt to quantify the characteristics the selection committee has always stated and shown to be important as key factors in their analysis. He actually draws from what is known as the “Nitty Gritty Sheet” that the NCAA Selection Committee uses in taking the inputs for the statistics that make up these ratings. This is why it is known as his Nitty Gritty Ratings.
Soon we will we show a formal seed list gathered from the ratings and submitted to the bracketmatrix.com.
After that list are the ratings for all 362 teams. Once the season begins, if one wants to eyeball the at-large field, look around the 40th-55th spot. The gap there allows one to see who is in and who is out. Similarly the NIT field break can be seen between 75th and 95th. For fun we added a CBI break about 20 spots later. In addition, you may see some daily dramatic jumps and drops around the NIT cut line even if a team does not play due to specific requirements and traits taken that subtly change a team’s merits but have a dramatic effect on their profile.
JNG – last updated Saturday November 29 at 9:10am
| RANK | Final Rating | Conf | +/- | Ystdy | |
| 1 | Kansas | 17.427979 | BXII | – | 1 |
| 2 | Auburn | 17.407854 | SEC | – | 2 |
| 3 | Tennessee | 15.458263 | SEC | – | 3 |
| 4 | Marquette | 15.115270 | BE | – | 4 |
| 5 | Gonzaga | 14.173698 | WCC | – | 5 |
| 6 | Kentucky | 13.768384 | SEC | – | 6 |
| 7 | Florida | 13.544940 | SEC | – | 7 |
| 8 | Alabama | 13.402032 | SEC | – | 8 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 12.632755 | BIG | – | 9 |
| 10 | Iowa State | 12.335663 | BXII | – | 10 |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 12.259254 | BXII | – | 11 |
| 12 | Oregon | 12.257632 | BIG | – | 12 |
| 13 | Purdue | 11.829824 | BIG | 2 | 15 |
| 14 | Memphis | 10.999132 | AAC | 2 | 16 |
| 15 | Drake | 10.775501 | MVC | 2 | 17 |
| 16 | Utah State | 10.593103 | MWC | 3 | 19 |
| 17 | Oklahoma | 10.347602 | SEC | 3 | 20 |
| 18 | Loyola-Chicago | 10.154736 | A10 | 3 | 21 |
| 19 | Duke | 9.961588 | ACC | 4 | 23 |
| 20 | UC-Irvine | 9.648027 | BW | 2 | 22 |
| 21 | Louisiana Tech | 9.151576 | CUSA | 3 | 24 |
| 22 | Ole Miss | 8.876840 | SEC | -8 | 14 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 8.874872 | ACC | 20 | 43 |
| 24 | Illinois | 8.747666 | BIG | 2 | 26 |
| 25 | Baylor | 8.724948 | BXII | 2 | 27 |
| 26 | Mississippi State | 8.625789 | SEC | -13 | 13 |
| 27 | Xavier | 8.295048 | BE | 2 | 29 |
| 28 | Michigan | 8.252157 | BIG | 3 | 31 |
| 29 | Houston | 8.246707 | BXII | 1 | 30 |
| 30 | Georgia | 8.235415 | SEC | 2 | 32 |
| 31 | Nebraska | 8.172280 | BIG | 2 | 33 |
| 32 | St. Mary’s | 8.023528 | WCC | -14 | 18 |
| 33 | Texas | 7.976442 | SEC | 3 | 36 |
| 34 | LSU | 7.916563 | SEC | 1 | 35 |
| 35 | Columbia | 7.914376 | IVY | -1 | 34 |
| 36 | BYU | 7.776747 | BXII | 14 | 50 |
| 37 | Furman | 7.693328 | SoCON | – | 37 |
| 38 | Clemson | 7.669626 | ACC | – | 38 |
| 39 | Maryland | 7.605879 | BIG | – | 39 |
| 40 | Indiana | 7.604169 | BIG | 23 | 63 |
| 41 | Michigan State | 7.500220 | BIG | -1 | 40 |
| 42 | Texas Tech | 7.455115 | BXII | 2 | 44 |
| 43 | Texas A&M | 7.442969 | SEC | -2 | 41 |
| 44 | UCLA | 7.225949 | BIG | -2 | 42 |
| 45 | St. Bonaventure | 6.991157 | A10 | 3 | 48 |
| 46 | Arizona State | 6.973153 | BXII | 6 | 52 |
| 47 | Nevada | 6.892570 | MWC | -2 | 45 |
| 48 | Stanford | 6.846845 | ACC | -2 | 46 |
| 49 | Iowa | 6.802828 | BIG | -2 | 47 |
| 50 | Vanderbilt | 6.708816 | SEC | -1 | 49 |
| 51 | Wichita State | 6.441379 | AAC | -26 | 25 |
| 52 | Wake Forest | 6.417797 | ACC | 4 | 56 |
| 53 | North Carolina | 6.373690 | ACC | -2 | 51 |
| 54 | Dayton | 6.255984 | A10 | – | 54 |
| 55 | Penn State | 6.171396 | BIG | – | 55 |
| 56 | New Mexico | 6.138843 | MWC | 11 | 67 |
| 57 | Colorado | 5.965086 | BXII | 1 | 58 |
| 58 | Liberty | 5.921733 | CUSA | -1 | 57 |
| 59 | Ohio State | 5.846666 | BIG | -31 | 28 |
| 60 | St. John’s | 5.832176 | BE | -1 | 59 |
| 61 | Arkansas | 5.799772 | SEC | -1 | 60 |
| 62 | California | 5.669369 | ACC | – | 62 |
| 63 | Rhode Island | 5.543041 | A10 | 1 | 64 |
| 64 | Florida State | 5.411470 | ACC | 1 | 65 |
| 65 | Missouri | 5.357527 | SEC | 1 | 66 |
| 66 | Connecticut | 5.205511 | BE | 3 | 69 |
| 67 | Bradley | 5.021808 | MVC | 5 | 72 |
| 68 | Rutgers | 5.012407 | BIG | 2 | 70 |
| 69 | St. Joseph’s | 4.938039 | A10 | 2 | 71 |
| 70 | Butler | 4.812633 | BE | 14 | 84 |
| 71 | DePaul | 4.753567 | BE | 2 | 73 |
| 72 | Washington | 4.580339 | BIG | 4 | 76 |
| 73 | VCU | 4.458162 | A10 | 7 | 80 |
| 74 | Boise State | 4.415340 | MWC | – | 74 |
| 75 | Kansas State | 4.400443 | BXII | – | 75 |
| 76 | Washington State | 4.154642 | WCC | 1 | 77 |
| 77 | High Point | 3.979918 | BSo | 1 | 78 |
| 78 | Utah | 3.919226 | BXII | 1 | 79 |
| 79 | Louisville | 3.890577 | ACC | -26 | 53 |
| 80 | Central Florida | 3.781821 | BXII | 2 | 82 |
| 81 | North Carolina State | 3.664857 | ACC | -20 | 61 |
| 82 | SMU | 3.572682 | ACC | 3 | 85 |
| 83 | North Texas | 3.472234 | AAC | -15 | 68 |
| 84 | UC-Santa Barbara | 3.269660 | BW | 6 | 90 |
| 85 | Virginia | 3.132687 | ACC | 9 | 94 |
| 86 | San Francisco | 3.083039 | WCC | 1 | 87 |
| 87 | Northwestern | 2.922828 | BIG | 15 | 102 |
| 88 | San Diego State | 2.792322 | MWC | 3 | 91 |
| 89 | College of Charleston | 2.692140 | CAA | 3 | 92 |
| 90 | Grand Canyon | 2.641459 | WAC | 3 | 93 |
| 91 | Arkansas State | 2.617623 | SunB | 14 | 105 |
| 92 | George Washington | 2.423187 | A10 | 4 | 96 |
| 93 | South Dakota State | 2.320668 | SUM | 2 | 95 |
| 94 | Hawai’i | 2.228857 | BW | 3 | 97 |
| 95 | East Carolina | 2.126351 | AAC | 5 | 100 |
| 96 | Creighton | 1.947376 | BE | 3 | 99 |
| 97 | Oklahoma State | 1.901431 | BXII | 4 | 101 |
| 98 | West Virginia | 1.831937 | BXII | 17 | 115 |
| 99 | Davidson | 1.749793 | A10 | -16 | 83 |
| 100 | Hofstra | 1.736797 | CAA | 11 | 111 |
| 101 | Providence | 1.647329 | BE | -15 | 86 |
| 102 | Princeton | 1.521691 | IVY | 1 | 103 |
| 103 | Marist | 1.436477 | MAAC | 1 | 104 |
| 104 | Belmont | 1.347988 | MVC | 8 | 112 |
| 105 | Boston College | 1.343957 | ACC | -24 | 81 |
| 106 | Samford | 1.316851 | SoCON | 3 | 109 |
| 107 | USC | 1.224507 | BIG | -19 | 88 |
| 108 | Longwood | 1.163273 | BSo | -2 | 106 |
| 109 | Southern Utah | 1.085373 | WAC | -2 | 107 |
| 110 | Georgetown | 0.929545 | BE | – | 110 |
| 111 | Kent State | 0.718622 | MAC | -22 | 89 |
| 112 | Radford | 0.634504 | BSo | 1 | 113 |
| 113 | Wyoming | 0.280413 | MWC | 1 | 114 |
| 114 | North Florida | 0.026441 | ASUN | 11 | 125 |
| 115 | Toledo | -0.010154 | MAC | 1 | 116 |
| 116 | Syracuse | -0.277122 | ACC | 3 | 119 |
| 117 | La Salle | -0.316954 | A10 | 1 | 118 |
| 118 | Kennesaw State | -0.462855 | CUSA | 22 | 140 |
| 119 | UC-San Diego | -0.510513 | BW | 3 | 122 |
| 120 | UNC-Wilmington | -0.518180 | CAA | 27 | 147 |
| 121 | Middle Tennessee | -0.651751 | CUSA | 3 | 124 |
| 122 | TCU | -0.765551 | BXII | -24 | 98 |
| 123 | Oregon State | -0.988171 | WCC | 5 | 128 |
| 124 | Robert Morris | -0.994528 | HZN | 3 | 127 |
| 125 | Mount St. Mary’s | -1.066319 | MAAC | 4 | 129 |
| 126 | Northern Arizona | -1.104998 | BSKY | 4 | 130 |
| 127 | Temple | -1.199656 | AAC | 4 | 131 |
| 128 | Northeastern | -1.308320 | CAA | 4 | 132 |
| 129 | Miami | -1.309901 | ACC | 4 | 133 |
| 130 | UTEP | -1.322314 | CUSA | 4 | 134 |
| 131 | Georgia Southern | -1.357977 | SunB | 4 | 135 |
| 132 | Saint Louis | -1.409097 | A10 | 4 | 136 |
| 133 | Arizona | -1.580065 | BXII | -25 | 108 |
| 134 | McNeese | -1.602389 | SLC | 3 | 137 |
| 135 | Cal State-Northridge | -1.644874 | BW | 3 | 138 |
| 136 | Murray State | -1.705044 | MVC | 3 | 139 |
| 137 | Akron | -1.751816 | MAC | 4 | 141 |
| 138 | Northern Colorado | -1.780058 | BSKY | -21 | 117 |
| 139 | Colorado State | -1.807821 | MWC | 33 | 172 |
| 140 | East Tennessee State | -1.849816 | SoCON | 2 | 142 |
| 141 | Notre Dame | -1.876362 | ACC | 2 | 143 |
| 142 | Appalachian State | -2.114956 | SunB | 11 | 153 |
| 143 | Minnesota | -2.223849 | BIG | -23 | 120 |
| 144 | Miami-Ohio | -2.531782 | MAC | – | 144 |
| 145 | Albany | -2.587032 | AmE | – | 145 |
| 146 | Rider | -2.619104 | MAAC | – | 146 |
| 147 | Milwaukee | -2.773149 | HZN | 1 | 148 |
| 148 | Drexel | -2.793391 | CAA | 1 | 149 |
| 149 | South Carolina | -2.817404 | SEC | 1 | 150 |
| 150 | Norfolk State | -2.887653 | MEAC | 1 | 151 |
| 151 | Rice | -2.975482 | AAC | -30 | 121 |
| 152 | Eastern Michigan | -3.062544 | MAC | 2 | 154 |
| 153 | Villanova | -3.081204 | BE | 2 | 155 |
| 154 | George Mason | -3.169350 | A10 | 30 | 184 |
| 155 | Seton Hall | -3.278621 | BE | 2 | 157 |
| 156 | UNLV | -3.408287 | MWC | -33 | 123 |
| 157 | Massachusetts-Lowell | -3.418346 | AmE | 1 | 158 |
| 158 | Eastern Kentucky | -3.626072 | ASUN | 1 | 159 |
| 159 | South Dakota | -3.755000 | SUM | 1 | 160 |
| 160 | North Alabama | -3.836953 | ASUN | 2 | 162 |
| 161 | Winthrop | -3.939702 | BSo | 2 | 163 |
| 162 | South Florida | -3.977195 | AAC | 2 | 164 |
| 163 | UC-Riverside | -4.066433 | BW | 2 | 165 |
| 164 | Troy | -4.176518 | SunB | -38 | 126 |
| 165 | South Alabama | -4.179198 | SunB | 16 | 181 |
| 166 | Missouri State | -4.212553 | MVC | – | 166 |
| 167 | Chattanooga | -4.252258 | SoCON | – | 167 |
| 168 | Austin Peay | -4.274609 | ASUN | – | 168 |
| 169 | Fort Wayne | -4.298063 | HZN | – | 169 |
| 170 | Cornell | -4.347311 | IVY | – | 170 |
| 171 | Montana | -4.630366 | BSKY | 3 | 174 |
| 172 | Marshall | -4.660326 | SunB | 1 | 173 |
| 173 | Florida Atlantic | -4.699262 | AAC | 3 | 176 |
| 174 | California Baptist | -4.710816 | WAC | 1 | 175 |
| 175 | Stephen F. Austin | -4.872590 | WAC | 24 | 199 |
| 176 | Illinois State | -4.896190 | MVC | 2 | 178 |
| 177 | Utah Valley | -5.061630 | WAC | 2 | 179 |
| 178 | Jacksonville | -5.236857 | ASUN | 2 | 180 |
| 179 | SIU Edwardsville | -5.457810 | OVC | -27 | 152 |
| 180 | Towson | -5.657716 | CAA | -24 | 156 |
| 181 | UC-Davis | -6.037503 | BW | 2 | 183 |
| 182 | Maine | -6.421450 | CAA | 34 | 216 |
| 183 | Vermont | -6.531659 | AmE | 2 | 185 |
| 184 | Yale | -6.778216 | IVY | 3 | 187 |
| 185 | Central Michigan | -6.789731 | MAC | 4 | 189 |
| 186 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley | -6.827970 | SLC | 5 | 191 |
| 187 | Jacksonville State | -6.845145 | CUSA | 3 | 190 |
| 188 | James Madison | -6.857739 | SunB | -17 | 171 |
| 189 | New Mexico State | -6.962151 | CUSA | -28 | 161 |
| 190 | Illinois-Chicago | -7.045346 | MVC | 2 | 192 |
| 191 | Wright State | -7.278582 | HZN | 3 | 194 |
| 192 | Charlotte | -7.294208 | AAC | 1 | 193 |
| 193 | Central Connecticut | -7.296655 | NEC | 2 | 195 |
| 194 | Western Kentucky | -7.415263 | CUSA | 3 | 197 |
| 195 | Little Rock | -7.440146 | OVC | 3 | 198 |
| 196 | Bakersfield | -7.500876 | BW | 5 | 201 |
| 197 | Texas State | -7.515824 | SunB | 3 | 200 |
| 198 | Bucknell | -7.520961 | PAT | 4 | 202 |
| 199 | Presbyterian | -7.570150 | BSo | 4 | 203 |
| 200 | Bryant | -7.637261 | AmE | 5 | 205 |
| 201 | Texas A&M-CC | -7.708646 | SLC | 5 | 206 |
| 202 | Virginia Tech | -7.966511 | ACC | 5 | 207 |
| 203 | Elon | -7.974446 | CAA | -26 | 177 |
| 204 | Portland State | -7.999240 | BSKY | 4 | 208 |
| 205 | UAB | -8.111269 | AAC | 4 | 209 |
| 206 | Delaware | -8.122303 | CAA | 4 | 210 |
| 207 | Sam Houston State | -8.213902 | CUSA | -25 | 182 |
| 208 | Abilene Christian | -8.273102 | WAC | 4 | 212 |
| 209 | St. Peter’s | -8.319276 | MAAC | 6 | 215 |
| 210 | Brown | -8.671016 | IVY | 7 | 217 |
| 211 | North Dakota State | -8.688234 | SUM | 7 | 218 |
| 212 | Lipscomb | -8.725977 | ASUN | 7 | 219 |
| 213 | Holy Cross | -8.772355 | PAT | -27 | 186 |
| 214 | St. Thomas | -8.843967 | SUM | 6 | 220 |
| 215 | Tulsa | -8.934275 | AAC | 6 | 221 |
| 216 | Buffalo | -8.948212 | MAC | 6 | 222 |
| 217 | Fresno State | -9.041180 | MWC | 6 | 223 |
| 218 | Gardner-Webb | -9.111791 | BSo | -30 | 188 |
| 219 | Incarnate Word | -9.169961 | SLC | 7 | 226 |
| 220 | Georgia State | -9.246574 | SunB | -24 | 196 |
| 221 | Cal Poly | -9.318633 | BW | 6 | 227 |
| 222 | Siena | -9.390161 | MAAC | 6 | 228 |
| 223 | Western Illinois | -9.518744 | OVC | 7 | 230 |
| 224 | Army West Point | -9.577375 | PAT | 7 | 231 |
| 225 | Northern Iowa | -9.743171 | MVC | -21 | 204 |
| 226 | North Dakota | -9.848051 | SUM | 6 | 232 |
| 227 | Santa Clara | -9.878166 | WCC | -2 | 225 |
| 228 | American | -9.907214 | PAT | 5 | 233 |
| 229 | Tulane | -10.135195 | AAC | 5 | 234 |
| 230 | Quinnipiac | -10.177564 | MAAC | 5 | 235 |
| 231 | Fordham | -10.292525 | A10 | 6 | 237 |
| 232 | Tennessee Tech | -10.336813 | OVC | -18 | 214 |
| 233 | Morehead State | -10.353666 | OVC | 34 | 267 |
| 234 | Richmond | -10.374725 | A10 | 4 | 238 |
| 235 | North Carolina A&T | -10.503258 | CAA | -24 | 211 |
| 236 | South Carolina State | -10.503893 | MEAC | 3 | 239 |
| 237 | UNC-Greensboro | -10.633957 | SoCON | 3 | 240 |
| 238 | UNC-Asheville | -10.659092 | BSo | 3 | 241 |
| 239 | Georgia Tech | -10.885468 | ACC | 3 | 242 |
| 240 | Howard | -10.904709 | MEAC | 3 | 243 |
| 241 | Citadel | -10.957542 | SoCON | 3 | 244 |
| 242 | Valparaiso | -10.985757 | MVC | -29 | 213 |
| 243 | Cleveland State | -11.108367 | HZN | -19 | 224 |
| 244 | Loyola Marymount | -11.176158 | WCC | 1 | 245 |
| 245 | Green Bay | -11.196909 | HZN | 1 | 246 |
| 246 | Dartmouth | -11.370762 | IVY | 55 | 301 |
| 247 | Wagner | -11.617000 | NEC | – | 247 |
| 248 | Indiana State | -11.773579 | MVC | -19 | 229 |
| 249 | Loyola | -11.911569 | PAT | -1 | 248 |
| 250 | UMBC | -11.948094 | AmE | – | 250 |
| 251 | Alabama State | -12.058657 | SWAC | – | 251 |
| 252 | Fairfield | -12.117671 | MAAC | – | 252 |
| 253 | Nicholls State | -12.202816 | SLC | – | 253 |
| 254 | Merrimack | -12.287800 | MAAC | 39 | 293 |
| 255 | Cal State-Fullerton | -12.471455 | BW | -1 | 254 |
| 256 | Massachusetts | -12.609870 | A10 | -1 | 255 |
| 257 | Ohio | -12.683273 | MAC | -1 | 256 |
| 258 | Stony Brook | -12.876158 | CAA | -1 | 257 |
| 259 | Manhattan | -12.881444 | MAAC | -23 | 236 |
| 260 | Seattle | -12.961465 | WAC | -2 | 258 |
| 261 | Omaha | -12.972939 | SUM | -1 | 260 |
| 262 | Boston University | -12.979172 | PAT | -1 | 261 |
| 263 | Idaho State | -12.986492 | BSKY | -1 | 262 |
| 264 | Long Island | -12.998717 | NEC | -15 | 249 |
| 265 | St. Francis (PA) | -13.162611 | NEC | -2 | 263 |
| 266 | Evansville | -13.337313 | MVC | -1 | 265 |
| 267 | Southeastern Louisiana | -13.343287 | SLC | -1 | 266 |
| 268 | Queens | -13.515579 | ASUN | 1 | 269 |
| 269 | Navy | -13.570407 | PAT | 40 | 309 |
| 270 | Tennessee-Martin | -13.575292 | OVC | – | 270 |
| 271 | Southern Illinois | -13.712741 | MVC | – | 271 |
| 272 | Pepperdine | -13.808890 | WCC | 30 | 302 |
| 273 | New Orleans | -13.999619 | SLC | -1 | 272 |
| 274 | Colgate | -14.138254 | PAT | -10 | 264 |
| 275 | Hampton | -14.401334 | CAA | -2 | 273 |
| 276 | Western Michigan | -14.604746 | MAC | -2 | 274 |
| 277 | Portland | -14.666061 | WCC | -2 | 275 |
| 278 | VMI | -14.685918 | SoCON | -19 | 259 |
| 279 | Lafayette | -14.713745 | PAT | 28 | 307 |
| 280 | Le Moyne | -14.718139 | NEC | 31 | 311 |
| 281 | Southern Indiana | -14.754839 | OVC | -5 | 276 |
| 282 | Stonehill | -14.762026 | NEC | -4 | 278 |
| 283 | William & Mary | -14.774687 | CAA | -6 | 277 |
| 284 | Western Carolina | -14.778073 | SoCON | -3 | 281 |
| 285 | Florida Gulf Coast | -14.787139 | ASUN | -6 | 279 |
| 286 | Texas-Arlington | -14.801690 | WAC | -6 | 280 |
| 287 | San Diego | -14.886855 | WCC | -5 | 282 |
| 288 | Iona | -14.922208 | MAAC | 25 | 313 |
| 289 | San Jose State | -14.959403 | MWC | -4 | 285 |
| 290 | Alabama A&M | -14.967420 | SWAC | -4 | 286 |
| 291 | Harvard | -14.981371 | IVY | -8 | 283 |
| 292 | Mercyhurst | -14.989403 | NEC | -8 | 284 |
| 293 | Bethune-Cookman | -15.028332 | SWAC | -6 | 287 |
| 294 | Weber State | -15.033649 | BSKY | 14 | 308 |
| 295 | Texas-San Antonio | -15.096555 | AAC | -7 | 288 |
| 296 | Pennsylvania | -15.098865 | IVY | -28 | 268 |
| 297 | Fairleigh Dickinson | -15.118433 | NEC | -8 | 289 |
| 298 | Youngstown State | -15.240452 | HZN | -8 | 290 |
| 299 | Montana State | -15.243029 | BSKY | -8 | 291 |
| 300 | Tennessee State | -15.314401 | OVC | -8 | 292 |
| 301 | Air Force | -15.366984 | MWC | -7 | 294 |
| 302 | Campbell | -15.382481 | CAA | -7 | 295 |
| 303 | Eastern Washington | -15.433009 | BSKY | -7 | 296 |
| 304 | Pacific | -15.478073 | WCC | -7 | 297 |
| 305 | Wofford | -15.567017 | SoCON | -7 | 298 |
| 306 | Sacred Heart | -15.758109 | MAAC | -7 | 299 |
| 307 | Detroit Mercy | -15.787605 | HZN | -7 | 300 |
| 308 | Oakland | -16.213498 | HZN | -5 | 303 |
| 309 | IUPUI | -16.313777 | HZN | -4 | 305 |
| 310 | Sacramento State | -16.417796 | BSKY | -4 | 306 |
| 311 | Northwestern State | -16.600473 | SLC | -7 | 304 |
| 312 | Denver | -16.859372 | SUM | -2 | 310 |
| 313 | Central Arkansas | -17.098123 | ASUN | -1 | 312 |
| 314 | Kansas City | -17.200193 | WAC | – | 314 |
| 315 | Ball State | -17.264145 | MAC | – | 315 |
| 316 | North Carolina Central | -17.315281 | MEAC | – | 316 |
| 317 | Coastal Carolina | -17.329294 | SunB | – | 317 |
| 318 | East Texas A&M | -17.392710 | SLC | 1 | 319 |
| 319 | Mercer | -17.428064 | SoCON | -1 | 318 |
| 320 | Southern Miss | -17.461244 | SunB | – | 320 |
| 321 | Florida International | -17.871256 | CUSA | – | 321 |
| 322 | Grambling | -17.896022 | SWAC | – | 322 |
| 323 | Utah Tech | -18.161203 | WAC | – | 323 |
| 324 | Duquesne | -18.362547 | A10 | 1 | 325 |
| 325 | Northern Kentucky | -18.409168 | HZN | 2 | 327 |
| 326 | Eastern Illinois | -18.443736 | OVC | 16 | 342 |
| 327 | Southern | -18.445020 | SWAC | 1 | 328 |
| 328 | Southeast Missouri State | -18.475912 | OVC | 1 | 329 |
| 329 | Texas Southern | -18.631708 | SWAC | 3 | 332 |
| 330 | Niagara | -18.830450 | MAAC | 20 | 350 |
| 331 | Delaware State | -18.851280 | MEAC | -1 | 330 |
| 332 | Tarleton | -19.004300 | WAC | -6 | 326 |
| 333 | Bowling Green | -19.031081 | MAC | -9 | 324 |
| 334 | Florida A&M | -19.105023 | SWAC | -1 | 333 |
| 335 | Louisiana-Monroe | -19.123697 | SunB | -4 | 331 |
| 336 | Morgan State | -19.454686 | MEAC | -1 | 335 |
| 337 | Houston Baptist | -19.588545 | SLC | – | 337 |
| 338 | Oral Roberts | -19.625024 | SUM | – | 338 |
| 339 | NJIT | -19.718031 | WAC | – | 339 |
| 340 | Old Dominion | -19.736053 | SunB | – | 340 |
| 341 | Mississippi Valley | -19.895474 | SWAC | -5 | 336 |
| 342 | Northern Illinois | -19.918373 | MAC | -8 | 334 |
| 343 | Lehigh | -19.935905 | PAT | -2 | 341 |
| 344 | Bellarmine | -20.071696 | ASUN | – | 344 |
| 345 | Lindenwood | -20.078381 | OVC | – | 345 |
| 346 | Long Beach State | -20.198808 | BW | – | 346 |
| 347 | Louisiana | -20.310831 | SunB | – | 347 |
| 348 | Jackson State | -20.508989 | SWAC | 3 | 351 |
| 349 | Lamar | -20.512554 | SLC | – | 349 |
| 350 | Stetson | -20.525626 | ASUN | -2 | 348 |
| 351 | Binghamton | -20.620175 | AmE | -8 | 343 |
| 352 | Idaho | -20.708038 | BSKY | – | 352 |
| 353 | USC-Upstate | -20.813250 | BSo | – | 353 |
| 354 | New Hampshire | -21.359401 | AmE | – | 354 |
| 355 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -21.411851 | SWAC | – | 355 |
| 356 | Charleston Southern | -21.759835 | BSo | – | 356 |
| 357 | Maryland-Eastern Shore | -21.811495 | MEAC | – | 357 |
| 358 | Monmouth | -21.970463 | CAA | – | 358 |
| 359 | Prairie View | -21.975789 | SWAC | – | 359 |
| 360 | Coppin State | -22.127659 | MEAC | – | 360 |
| 361 | Alcorn State | -22.572123 | SWAC | – | 361 |
| 362 | Chicago State | -22.703807 | NEC | – | 362 |
| 363 | Canisius | -22.847914 | MAAC | – | 363 |
| 364 | West Georgia | -23.618381 | ASUN | – | 364 |
JNG Once Again at the TOP in 2023!
Accuracy of guessing the Committee (among the dozen final published rating systems on the bracketmatrix.com, 59 published on www.Massey.com on March 17, 2023 or used by the section committee itself, i.e. the KPI and RPI)
TOP TEN
1. JNG – 349 – 67 of 68 teams correct, 43 correct seed, 19 within a seed. (missed Virginia)
2. Bracket Madness – 346– 67 of 68, 42 seeds correct, 19 w/n a seed (missed Virginia)
3. Bart Torvik T-Rank – 344 –66 of 68, 43 seeds correct, 17 w/n a seed (missed Florida Atlantic & Virginia)
4. HaslamMetrics – 339 – 66 of 68 teams correct, 41 seed correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed Texas A&M and Virginia)
5. Benz – 336 – 67 of 68, 37 seed correct, 24 w/n a seed (missed Virginia)
6. Logan – 334 – 66 of 68, 41 seeds correct, 13 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Virginia)
7. Crashing the Dance – 332 – 66 of 68, 38 seeds correct, 20 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Virginia)
8. Crotistics – 327 – 66 of 68, 36 seeds correct, 21 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern & Virginia)
9. INCC – 323 – 66 of 68, 34 seeds correct 23 w/n a seed (missed Florida Atlantic & Virginia)
10. Wilson – 313 – 66 of 68, 31 seeds correct, 22 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Texas A&M)
Other Ratings of Note (either well-known or bracketmatrix submissions)
12. AMSTS – 306 – 66 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 21 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State & Texas A&M)
13(tie). Brian Wilson – 305 – 65 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 23 w/n a seed (missed TCU, Texas A&M & Virginia)
15. ESPN SOR – 304 – 65 of 68, 31 seeds correct, 16 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
16. Massey – 303 – 64 of 68, 29 seeds correct, 24 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
22(tie). KPI – 297 – 65 of 68, 28 seeds correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
25(tie). KenPom – 295 – 62 of 68, 30 seeds correct, 19 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
30. Donchess Inference (DRatings) – 291 – Uses formula as a baseline for human ipicks that calculated 346 on backetmatrix. Strict mathematical formula had 63 of 68, 28 seeds correct 18 w/n 1 seed (missed Utah St, Washington St, Nevada, Boise St, Virginia)
33(tie). NCAA NET – 287 – 63 of 68, 24 seeds correct, 26 w/n a seed (missed Washington State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Northwestern, & Virginia)
37. PPI – 281 – 66 of 68, 21 seeds correct, 20 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern & Michigan State)
39(tie). Team Rankings – 279 – 65 of 68, 18 seeds correct, 30 w/n a seed (missed Northwestern, Colorado, & Virginia)
46. RTS – 269 – 62 of 68, 24 seeds correct, 11 w/n a seed (missed South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State, Northwestern, Texas A&M & Virginia)
50(tie). BPI – 263 – 61 of 68, 32 seeds correct, 16 w/n a seed (missed Colorado, Boise State, Nevada, Virginia, South Carolina, Colorado State, & Utah State)
54. Real Time RPI – 257 – 62 of 68, 21 seeds correct, 8 w/n a seed (missed Michigan State, Northwestern, Texas, Texas A&M, TCU & Virginia)
AP Poll Top 25 – 12 teams exact seed, 10 within 1
Coaches Poll Top 25 – 10 teams exact seed, 13 within 1
JNG CALCULATION METHODOLOGY
The baseline for strength used to be the RPI. The Committee, rightfully or wrongfully, has now switched to the “NET” formula as the primary baseline to determine what a “good win” or a “bad loss” is. To determine this distinction the JNG feeds off a weighted matrix that incorporates the “quadrant” system, influenced by fellow HoopsHD contributor Kyle Lamb, and adopted by the Committee in 2018.
Other factors such as high level wins away from home, wins against “the field,” conference leaders, overall records, out of conference SOS, and “recency bias” are all components that comprise the ratings. The JNG is “advanced” as it recalculates until stabilized. This is a crucial trait as one of the key criteria, “wins against the ‘at large’ field,” is reliant on the rating system repeatedly recalculating upon itself until the exact number that fits an “at large” field that matches up with potential conference champion spots to create a cut line. As mentioned earlier, one can see this critical junction in the ratings listed below with a gap in the list, usually in a spot between 45th and 50th in the ratings. One can use this cut line to easily eyeball a “last 4 in” (above) and “first 4 out” (below) the gap. A similar gap exists on the chart below for the NIT and CBI cutoffs, typically around 85-95 and 105-115 respectively.
HISTORY:
2015: First year of the JNG and showed immediate promise. When nobody thought UCLA should even get close to a bid, the ratings revealed that they actually were in the thick of the discussion (further proof the ratings are meant to mimic the Committee, NOT evaluate merit in a manner that should be adopted).
2016: JNG claims the top spot among ratings. The big surprise by the committee was the inclusion of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and, once again, the JNG called it.
2017: The JNG was perfect and the #1 most accurate rating with a score that rivaled the top human bracketologists. It got all 68 teams correct and 59 of 68 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list released by the Committee. The biggest surprise was not an inclusion but the seeding of Vanderbilt. Many did not even have the Commodores in the field, but the Committee gave them a 9 seed and 33rd overall mimicking the JNG’s 9 seed and 34th overall.
2018: Second only to the KPI among the published ratings with 66 of 68 teams and 60 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list. The JNG not only had the slumping Sooners in the field but nailed their 10 seed on the nose.
2019: JNG reclaimed its top spot. 66 of 68 and 59 within 4 of the seed list (58 within 3 and 52 within 2!). St. John’s was such a surprise, only 2 ratings had them even in the field. The JNG was one of them. Likewise, Arizona St was only in 6 computer fields, and the JNG was one of them. Temple was only in the field in 9 ratings, and the JNG once again caught the outlier. It gets even better considering that Ohio St was one of the 2 “misses” and barely missed the JNG field to UNC-Greensboro. The Committee said UNC-G was one of the first teams out and nobody else human or computer had UNC-G in or near the field.
2020: Most similar to top bracketologists. As we all know there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020 so there was no absolute measuring stick. As a general guide though, the JNG was compared to the top human baracketologists on bracketmatrix.com (of note, the JNG is one of only a dozen formulas accepted as an entrant on the bracketmatrix.com). The JNG was easily the closest to the mean.
2021: JNG still in the top spot. The JNG tied for the top spot with well-respected stat guru Bart Torvik’s T-Rank. While most bracketologists on the bracketmatrix.com missed the inclusion of Wichita St, the JNG nailed the selection and seed perfectly. The only miss was the JNG’s 2nd team out (Utah St).
2022: JNG makes giant leap in score. Not only did the JNG keep its spot as top of class among computer projections, but it also beat the majority of human bracketologists on bracketmatrix.com commanding an impressive 352 score. It was the only computer in the entire world to have Rutgers in its field. Only 40% of all professional human bracketologists had the Scarlet Knights but the JNG had them in.
2023: JNG on top with highest all time score. The JNG made it 7 out of 8 years as the top computer ratings guessing the Committee. The JNG’s improvement led to a score of 359. While most human bracketologists did a simple swap for Princeton’s upset of Yale in the Ivy, the JNG recognized that the Tigers were actually a 15 seed and the Committee agreed. Compared to other computer programs, the JNG did not punish the ACC at the expense of the MWC, correctly identifying the true traits the Committee sees in a resume, not just efficiency ratings, which can be gamed by preseason scheduling. As a result, the JNG did not miss a single seed out of the ACC and MWC participants.
2024: JNG gets highest overall position in its history. It is now 8 out of 9 years running for top computer metric. The seeding once again came in handy as the JNG was one of the only brackets to count UAB’s conference strength in their favor to get a 12. It also correctly did not overstate Sunday results and kept Auburn a 4 and Illinois a 3 despite nice conference tournament wins. This year the JNG surpassed the bracketologists from the ESPN, CBS, the Athletic, FOX, Sports Illustrated, SB Nation, the Sporting News, and USA Today.
We will try to update the ratings daily in the morning during the season so you can see the ebb and flow of where teams land.