Conference Preview: SWAC

Posted on November 3, 2014 by Chad

Of the 32 conferences in Division I, the SWAC has been hit the hardest by the Academic Progress Rate rules, having had multiple teams ineligible for postseason play each of the last few years.  Last season was perhaps the roughest with Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling and Mississippi Valley State all ruled ineligible for postseason play, and then having Southern University added to the list late in the season due to irregularities in the data they had supplied to the NCAA.  With four out of ten teams ineligible, the SWAC actually ended up revising their conference tournament format to allow all ten teams to play, giving their automatic bid to the eligible team that advanced the furthest (which ended up being tournament champion Texas Southern).

This season things are a lot different in the SWAC.  While Southern is still ineligible as they try to resolve issues that basically made all of the school’s academic data unusable (and you can read into that whatever you desire), only Alabama State joins them in being ineligible under the APR.  With the Southland having three teams on the postseason ban list, the SWAC has clearly moved up out of the Division I APR basement, hopefully for good.

Alabama State’s place on the ban list could not have come with worse timing, as the Hornets appear to be the runaway leader, at least on paper, in the race for the conference title.  Jamel Waters is one of the top players in the SWAC and he leads a team with all five starters returning.  The Hornets also return the majority of their bench from a team that won 19 games last season and made an appearance in the CIT.  After Alabama State, the SWAC appears to be wide open, with Alcorn State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M all looking like they will be competitive in league play.  Alcorn State is our pick as the second best and thus the automatic bid winner.  Grambling State also continues its rebuild and has a shot to move out of the conference basement under new head coach Shawn Walker.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Alabama State*: Waters stars for this deep veteran team that appears to be a level above everyone else in the conference.
2.  Alcorn State: LeAntwan Luckett, Octavius Brown and Marquis Vance all return for an experienced team that looks to be the best of the rest after Alabama State.
3.  Arkansas-Pine Bluff: The backcourt combination of Marcel Mosley and Tevin Hammond will be dangerous enough for the Golden Lions to compete with almost anyone in this conference.
4.  Texas Southern: With four starters, including star Aaric Murray, gone, the Tigers will need Madarious Gibbs and Jose Rodriguez to step up if they want to be near the top of the league standings.
5.  Prairie View A&M: Montrael Scott and John Brisco lead an experienced backcourt that should help the Panthers improve from last season’s 23 losses, but they will need to find some answers down low to challenge for anything higher than this.
6.  Southern*: The defending regular season champions lost four starters, but should still have a solid backcourt with Tre’Lun Banks and Tre Lynch.
7.  Jackson State: The Tigers lose their top two scorers from last season, though they should still be among the better defensive teams in the conference.  Finding some offense will be the key to moving up in the standings.
8.  Grambling State: The loss of Antwan Scott will hurt, but A’Torri Shore looks poised to lead this team which has a good chance to avoid the SWAC basement.
9.  Mississippi Valley State: The Delta Devils lose four starters from a 23 loss team that finished in 9th place in the SWAC.  That is a recipe for a very long season.
10.  Alabama A&M: The Bulldogs lose four starters as well, and no returning player averaged more than 3.4 points per game last season.  Avoiding the conference basement may be the ceiling this year.

* Alabama State is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.  Southern is ineligible for postseason play due to ongoing issues surrounding the APR data that was submitted to the NCAA.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Conference Preview: SWAC

Conference Preview: Southland

Posted on November 3, 2014 by Chad

If you have no done so already, make sure you check out our Preseason Bracketology Podcast here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/11/02/preseason-bracketology-podcast/

With thirteen members and only the top eight teams allowed into the conference tournament, it would appear that the Southland, in theory, would be eliminating five teams during its conference regular season, the most of any conference that has a postseason tournament.  However, this season at least, those five eliminations have all already occurred.  Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are both ineligible for the conference and NCAA tournaments as second year transitional teams.  Central Arkansas, Houston Baptist and Lamar have all run afoul of the APR rules and are banned from postseason play this year.  The remaining eight teams will play in the conference tournament for a shot at the league’s automatic bid — but that may just be a formality as well given that Stephen F. Austin returns six of its top nine players, meaning that they probably will not miss a step after going 18-0 in conference play, winning the Southland tournament and going on to upset VCU in the Round of 64 last year.

To the extent that anyone is going to challenge SFA, the two most likely candidates are the two teams that made postseason appearances in the CIT last year, Sam Houston State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.  The Bearkats return four starters and get DeMarcus Gatlin back after he had to take a medical redshirt with a knee injury last season.  The Islanders are led by John Jordan and should once again be one of the best defensive teams in the conference.

One team that Stephen F. Austin is not going to have to worry about this year is Oral Roberts.  After spending only two seasons in the Southland, the Golden Eagles chose to leave the conference and return to their prior home in the Summit League.  While the reason for the move to the Southland was to cut down on travel costs and grow more regional rivalries, ORU apparently felt that the Southland’s recent expansion combined with its focus on football (a sport that Oral Roberts does not sponsor), made the Southland less attractive than it had originally been.  Of course, ORU had a lot more success in the Summit League as well, capturing six titles, including three straight from 2006-08, as opposed to third place and sixth place finishes in their two runs through the Southland.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Stephen F. Austin: Jacob Parker, Thomas Walkup and the majority of the bench returns from last season’s team.  The Lumberjacks should not miss a step off of last year’s success.
2.  Sam Houston State: Jabari Peters, Kaheem Ransom, and getting Gatlin back from his injury should make the Bearkats the most likely to challenge Stephen F. Austin this year.
3.  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: With Jordan leading the way, there is no reason why the Islanders will not be competitive again this season.
4.  Northwestern State: Jalan West and Zikiteran Woodley are back for the Demons and their fast-paced, high-scoring team, but losing three starters from last season’s squad may be too much.
5.  Incarnate Word*: The Cardinals went 9-5 in Southland play last season despite it being only their first competing at the Division I level.  With three of their top four scorers back, including Denzel Livingston and his 20.3 points per game, there is no reason they will not be right up there in the regular season standings again this year.
6.  Southeastern Louisiana: JaMichael Hawkins and Southern Mississippi transfer Cedric Jenkins will lead this team, but the talent level does not appear to be there to compete for the conference’s top spots.
7.  McNeese State: Kevin Hardy and Desharick Guidry are good enough to keep the Cowboys in games, but this is still a 20 loss team that lost its top scorer from last season.
8.  New Orleans: The rebuild of the Privateers program is still ongoing following their decision not to drop down to Division II or III.  While the team is starting to build young talent, they are probably yet strong enough to avoid a lower division finish.
9.  Nicholls State: With their top two players from last year gone, it could be a long season for the Colonels.  The good news is that no matter how badly they struggle, they are guaranteed a berth in the Southland tournament.
10.  Abilene Christian*: The Wildcats return all five starters from last season, but depth could be an issue in their second season at the D1 level.
11.  Lamar*: The long rebuild from the Pat Knight era is just beginning, but Davontae Bailey is a top recruit for Tic Price in his first full season at the helm.
12.  Houston Baptist*: It is tough to be worse than the Huskies were last season at 6-25 overall, but unfortunately there is a chance they could be.
13.  Central Arkansas*: Russ Pennell takes over the program, but every key player from last season’s 21 loss squad is gone.  This could be a very long season for the Bears.

* Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian are ineligible for the Southland and NCAA tournaments as second year transitional teams.  Lamar, Houston Baptist and Central Arkansas are ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Conference Preview: Southland

Conference Preview: Southern Conference

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Chad

Check out our Preseason Bracketology Podcast here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/11/02/preseason-bracketology-podcast/

The conference realignment craziness of the past few years seems to be finally coming to an end, and one of the victims of it all, once again, was the SoCon.  Gone from the Southern Conference are the teams that seem to have defined it in recent history.  Last season, College of Charleston left to join the Colonial.  This season, Elon has followed Charleston to the CAA, while Davidson (the Southern’s regular season champion and an NIT participant last season) is off to the Atlantic Ten.  Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are also both gone as well, heading to join the Sun Belt Conference for football reasons.

The cupboard is not completely bare in the SoCon, however.  Wofford, which won the conference tournament last season, is back.  Chattanooga, which also played in the postseason, getting a CBI bid, is still around as well.  And the SoCon welcomes three new members this season, all three of which received postseason invites last year.  Mercer and East Tennessee State move over from the Atlantic Sun.  Mercer, of course, not only won the A-Sun’s automatic bid last season but also went on to defeat Duke in the NCAA tournament.  ETSU played in the CIT last season and returns to the SoCon which it was a member of from 1978 through 2005.  Also returning to the SoCon is VMI (from the Big South).  The Keydets were members of the Southern from all the way back in 1923 until leaving in 2003.  They also played in the postseason last year, advancing to the semifinals of the CIT.

This season, the team to beat appears to be the Wofford Terriers, a team that returns all of its starters from last year’s NCAA tournament squad including Karl Cochran who may be the best guard in the conference.  Wofford should receive a challenge from Chattanooga, which is in its second year under former VCU assistant Will Wade and has adopted their own version of Havoc called “Chaos”.  Newcomers East Tennessee State and VMI could challenge as well, though the third newcomer, Mercer, looks like they will struggle with the entire starting lineup having moved on after last season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Wofford: Cochran is joined by the returns of Spencer Collins and Eric Garcia for the best three guard combo in the conference.  With the experience they built last season, and Davidson off to the A-10, the Terriers are the clear favorites this year.
2.  East Tennessee State: Rashawn Rembert averaged over 16 points per game last season and should only get better, but the Buccaneers have some question marks down low.
3.  Chattanooga: Year two of “Chaos” should be led by guard Casey Jones.  However, Z. Mason’s 18.1 points per game will be missed and there are some questions in the low posts.
4.  VMI: Even though two of three players that averaged 18 points per game or more are gone, Q.J. Peterson does return and given their high octane style of play, the Keydets should find ways to win.  Circle January 22 and February 26 on your calendars — the two meetings between VMI and Chattanooga this season.  Those games could be wild!
5.  Furman: The Paladins should improve off of last year’s 20 losses with the return of four starters including Stephen Croone and the addition of freshman Devin Sibley.
6.  Western Carolina: With three starters gone, this could be a rebuilding year, though senior guard James Sinclair is solid.  Freshman Tucker Thompson down low should get some serious minutes.
7.  Mercer: The combination of a new conference and no returning starters is not a recipe for success, at least this season.  Bob Hoffman has done some incredible things in Macon, Georgia during his tenure, so even if they falter this season, the Bears should find their way to the top of the conference standings soon enough.
8.  UNC-Greensboro: Tevon Saddler won SoCon Rookie of the Year honors last season, but he does not look like he has enough other pieces around him for this team to reach the upper half of the conference standings.
9.  The Citadel:  In a conference that has seen a ton of shifts in membership, the Bulldogs have been a constant.  They have the SoCon’s longest consecutive membership, having been in the conference since 1936 when their conference mates were the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, South Carolina, Clemson and more.  In all that time, they have never reached the NCAA tournament, and this year does not look to be a change.  Ashton Moore will lead the team from the guard position, but the Bulldogs are lacking in the size and talent to help him out much.
10.  Samford: Scott Padgett takes over as head coach, but he is going to have to rebuild this program from the bottom up with only one returning starter from a team that lost 20 games.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Conference Preview: Southern Conference

Preseason Bracketology Podcast

Posted on November 2, 2014 by David Griggs

On this show, we build the bracket based on the Preaseason Top 25, and which teams were picked as conference favorites at media day.  We overcome technical difficulties, and got through it line by line as we put it together.

 

 

A look at what the bracket would look like based off of the preseason rankings

A look at what the bracket would look like based off of the preseason rankings

Posted in News and Notes, Podcasts | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Conference Preview: Patriot League

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Chad

The NCAA established divisions prior to the 1947-48 season.  Since then, some teams have left D1, but a ton more have joined (and some have left and then returned).  However, of the teams that have been a member of D1 continuously since the beginning, only five have never played in the NCAA tournament.  The most notable, of course, is the Big Ten’s Northwestern Wildcats.  Joining Northwestern on the list is William & Mary, The Citadel, St. Francis (Brooklyn) and Army.  The Army Black Knights should probably, however, have an asterisk next to their name on this list.  They actually were extended an invitation to the NCAA tournament in 1968, while coached by one Robert Montgomery Knight, but declined the invite and chose to play in the NIT instead.

This season, William & Mary and St. Francis are both among teams expected to contend in their conferences for a championship and an end to their streaks.  The same goes for Army, which has not played a postseason game since their appearance in the 1978 NIT, while coached by another notable name, Mike Krzyewski (and Coach K was a player on the 1968 Army team that declined the NCAA invite).  While the Black Knights may not be our preseason pick to win the Patriot League, it would not be a shock at all to see them dancing this season.  At the very least, a postseason bid to one of the other tournaments seems very likely, especially with all five starters returning including Kyle Wilson, who may be the best player in the conference.

Our pick to win the Patriot League this year is the defending conference tournament champions, American (which notably lost by 40 points in the NCAA tournament Round of 64 to Wisconsin).  The Eagles return four starters, add a pair of transfers in Kevin Panzer (Nevada) and Jonathan Davis (George Washington), and get 6-11 Zach Elanco back from injury.  However, this conference race has a chance to be very exciting as Army, Lafayette, Holy Cross (which made the CIT last season), Lehigh and Colgate all could be contenders — and that list does not even include last season’s regular season champion, Boston University, which played last year in the NIT.  The conference race is wide open in what should be one of the more entertaining leagues to watch all season long.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  American: Jordan Reed, John Schoof and Darius “Pee Wee” Gardner are the top returning scorers and form perhaps the best backcourt in the conference.  Combined with newcomers such as Panzer and Davis, the Eagles look to have what it takes to make a run at a return to the NCAA tournament.
2.  Army: Kevin Ferguson is a force down low to complement Wilson.  The best part may be that four of the five returning starters, including Wilson and Ferguson, are only juniors.  If the Black Knights don’t get their first bid this year, they should be right there again next season.
3.  Lafayette: The Leopards bring back five starters that all averaged double digits in scoring and should be right in the hunt for the league title.
4.  Holy Cross: Malcolm Miller and Anthony Thompson are the top players on this deep, experienced and balanced team.
5.  Lehigh: The Mountain Hawks expect freshman Kahron Ross to take over at the point.  If he can run the floor, combined with four returning starters, this team could be better than expected.
6.  Colgate: Austin Tillotson, Ethan Jacobs and Damon Sherman-Newsome will help make the Red Raiders tough to beat and could put them in the middle of this wide open conference race.
7.  Boston University: John Papale is the top returning player, but with their top three scorers gone, the Terriers look like they will be taking a step back this year.
8.  Navy: The Midshipmen return all of their starters and welcome back point guard Tillman Dunbar who was suspended from the team after only ten games last year.  An improvement on last year’s 21 losses should not be difficult.
9.  Bucknell: Chris Haas will be their top player this year, but big things may be needed from freshman center Nana Foulland if they want any chance at doing better than this prediction.
10.  Loyola: Dylon Cormier averaged 21.2 points per game last year (until going down late in the season to an injury).  He is gone for good now and the Greyhounds will struggle to find a way to replace his production.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Conference Preview: Patriot League

CONFERENCE PREVIEW: OHIO VALLEY

Posted on November 1, 2014 by Chad

The Murray State Racers cut down the nets last season, winning the championship . . . of the CIT.  The Racers defeated Yale 65-57 for the title, and will be looking to turn last season’s late momentum into a shot at an NCAA tournament bid this season.  The Racers return eight of their top nine players from last season and add several new pieces that should contribute immediately at well.  Cameron Payne, Jarvis Williams and T.J. Sapp could all be in contention for first team all-conference honors.  Quite simply, the Racers, at least on paper, look to be a level above the rest of the conference — even potentially good enough to steal an at-large bid.

Like the MAC, the OVC does still have divisional play, and it rewards the two division champions with its top two conference tournament seeds and byes into the semifinals.  Six other teams also qualify for the tournament, regardless of division, while four teams will not play beyond the end of the conference regular season.  The East Division looks like a three team battle this season between Eastern Kentucky (last season’s automatic bid winner), Belmont (which played in the NIT last year) and Morehead State (which played in the CBI).  If anyone can challenge Murray State in the West, the most likely contenders are Southeast Missouri State, Austin Peay or SIU Edwardsville.  SIUE has not won more than 11 games in a season since moving up to the Division I level, but appears poised to easily surpass that win total this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
EAST DIVISION
1.  Morehead State: Angelo Warner, Brent Arrington, and Bakari Turner lead a very deep team that should have what it takes to capture the division title.
2.  Belmont: Craig Bradshaw and Reece Chamberlain are back, but J.J. Mann’s graduation leaves a huge hole that needs to be filled.
3.  Eastern Kentucky: Corey Walden, the OVC Defensive Player of the Year, is back from last season’s conference tournament champions.  Unfortunately, three other starters, including leading scorer Glenn Cosey, are not.
4.  Tennessee Tech: Dwan Caldwell will be the team leader and probably the best player for the Golden Eagles.  However, there are not enough other pieces here to contend.
5.  Jacksonville State: The Gamecocks will be led offensively by Darion Rackley, but another 20+ loss season seems likely.
6.  Tennessee State: At only 29 years old, Dana Ford takes over as the youngest head coach in Division I.  He has his work cut out for him though with the majority of last season’s 5-25 team gone.

WEST DIVISION
1.  Murray State: Payne, Williams, Sapp, and Jeffery Moss are just a few of the pieces on this deep, talented team.  Freshman JayQuan McCloud could get some significant playing time too.  If the Racers score a few key non-conference wins, an at-large bid could be possible if needed.
2.  SIU Edwardsville: The Cougars return an experienced team that had a balanced scoring attack last season.  They could definitely be one of the surprise teams this year.
3.  Austin Peay: Chris Horton is good enough to average a double-double, just missing one last season with 13.2 points per game and 9.1 rebounds.  Head coach Dave Loos has brought in a talented group of newcomers that could have the Governors among the conference’s best teams.
4.  Southeast Missouri State: Jarekious Bradley may be the best player in the conference, but the Redhawks will need to find enough other pieces to help him out if they want to challenge for a high seed in the conference tournament.
5.  Tennessee-Martin: Myles Taylor is the Skyhawks’ top returning player, but keep an eye out for 7-2 freshman Nick Detlev.  In the end, this team’s ceiling, at least this year, may be just finding a way to qualify for the OVC tournament.
6.  Eastern Illinois: Reggie Smith will be the team’s best player, but another long season looms — especially if they cannot improve their 345th ranked defense against three point shooting.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CONFERENCE PREVIEW: OHIO VALLEY