Conference Tournament Viewing Guide 03.07.12

Here is the list of conference tournament games on the schedule for today, together with their available television/webstreaming options.  Please note that I only list webstreams for games without national television coverage, even if a stream may also be available. “Local TV” means that the game does not have full national coverage and you should check your local listings.  (PPV) means that the webstream has a fee.

(all times are eastern)

Wednesday, March 7

Big East Second Round:
12:00 PM    (8) West Virginia vs (9) Connecticut    ESPN
2:30 PM    (5) Georgetown vs (13) Pittsburgh    ESPN
7:00 PM    (7) Louisville vs (10) Seton Hall    ESPN
9:30 PM    (6) South Florida vs (14) Villanova    ESPN

Big Sky Championship:
9:00 PM    (1) Montana vs (2) Weber State    ESPN2

Big Twelve First Round:
7:00 PM    (8) Oklahoma vs (9) Texas A&M    Local TV/Full Court/espn3.com
9:30 PM    (7) Oklahoma State vs (10) Texas Tech    Local TV/Full Court/espn3.com

Conference USA First Round:
1:00 PM    (7) Rice vs (10) East Carolina    Local TV/ conferenceusa.cstv.com (PPV)
3:30 PM    (6) Marshall vs (11) Southern Methodist    Local TV/ conferenceusa.cstv.com (PPV)
7:30 PM    (8) UTEP vs (9) Houston    Local TV/ conferenceusa.cstv.com (PPV)
10:00 PM    (5) UAB vs (12) Tulane    Local TV/ conferenceusa.cstv.com (PPV)

MEAC Quarterfinal:
6:00 PM    (1) Savannah State vs (8) Hampton    meachoops.com (FREE)
8:30 PM    (2) Norfolk State vs (10) Howard    meachoops.com (FREE)

Mid-American Second Round:
7:00 PM    (8) Western Michigan vs (12) Northern Illinois    Local TV/Full Court/espn3.com
9:30 PM    (7) Toledo vs (11) Central Michigan    Local TV/Full Court/espn3.com

Northeast Championship:
7:00 PM    (1) Long Island University vs (3) Robert Morris    ESPN2

Pac-12 First Round:
3:00 PM    (8) Washington State vs (9) Oregon State    FSN National
5:30 PM    (5) UCLA vs (12) Southern California    FSN National
9:00 PM    (7) Stanford vs (10) Arizona State    FSN National
11:30 PM    (6) Colorado vs (11) Utah    FSN National

Patriot Championship:
7:00 PM    (1) Bucknell vs (2) Lehigh    CBS-SN

Southland Quarterfinal:
1:00 PM    (2) Stephen F. Austin vs (7) Sam Houston State    southland.org (FREE)
3:30 PM    (3) Lamar vs (6) Northwestern State    southland.org (FREE)
7:00 PM    (1) Texas-Arlington vs (8) Nicholls State    southland.org (FREE)
9:30 PM    (4) McNeese State vs (5) Texas-San Antonio    southland.org (FREE)

SWAC Quarterfinal:
1:30 PM    (2) Texas Southern vs (7) Alabama A&M    swac.org (FREE)
9:00 PM    (1) Mississippi Valley State vs (8) Jackson State    swac.org (FREE)

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Championship Week Notebook (Tuesday, March 6th)

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK NOTEBOOK

197 Teams remain….I think. That includes BYU, Gonzaga, Oral Roberts, Wichita State, Iona, Dexel, and George Mason who all lost in their conference tournaments, but remain on the board. It also includes Penn, who can tie Harvard for first place in the Ivy League tonight.

-For those of you who missed the action last night, I’ve got two words for you. I’m sorry.

I’ll start with this….

-Everyone loves a good upset. To me, though, a good upset is when a good team that isn’t getting much credit because of conference affiliation, or lack of history, or whatever, gets a chance to prove themselves, and does it. The kind of upsets I don’t necessarily like are what we’ve seen in some of these conference tournaments. Good teams like Oral Roberts, Iona, Middle Tennessee, and now Denver have a bad game, and/or run into a lesser deserving team that has a good game, and suddenly that wipes out the entire season. This makes for less deserving teams in the NCAA Tournament, and consequently less intriguing match-ups.

-Oral Roberts remains under consideration, but one has to think they are a long shot after their semifinal loss to Western Illinois in the Summit Tournament. ORU did not play with energy out of the gate, but appeared to have the game in control in the second half when they turned a six point deficit into a nine point lead. However, in the final four minutes of play, ORU had one bad possession after another, and didn’t take a single good shot. All they had to do was convert one. This enabled Western Illinois to get the lead, and even when ORU had a chance to win at the end, they still failed to get off a good shot. Western Illinois advances to the championship game to face South Dakota State, who won their semifinal game easily. South Dakota State may not be as dangerous as Oral Roberts, but they are still capable of making someone sweat in the round of 64.

-The Sun Belt was also exciting. Western Kentucky has risen from the dead and had themselves quite a week. They ended the regular season with a win over rival Middle Tennessee, and have since knocked off Florida International, UALR and now Denver to reach the conference championship game. It’s their fifth straight win, and a classic case of a team having a bad year, but getting red hot down the stretch. They will face North Texas tonight, who also failed to finish the regular season with a div1 winning record, but has strung together back-to-back close wins in the conference tournament. The winner will be on their way to Dayton, and as much as I hate the opening round, it seems appropriate for the winner of this game.

-Davidson is by far the most deserving and most dangerous team out of the SoCon. They wrapped up the automatic bid, but it wasn’t easy. Western Carolina had a blah season, but looked like worldbeaters in this game against Davidson. Every time you thought they were dead, they would get up off the mat, hit a big shot, and be back in the game. It went into double overtime, and Western Carolina had chances to pull off the upset. As much as you hate to see a valiant effort go unrewarded, you do like to see a team like Davidson rewarded for playing well all season long. This is a team that already has a win against Kansas, and will not be an easy match-up in the round of 64.

-While that was going on, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga were also playing in a thriller. Both teams appeared to be safely in the field, so the game had more to do with the rivalry and with the conference championship than anything else. SMC appeared to have the game wrapped up in regulation, but Gonzaga came back to force overtime. In the end, SMC prevailed, and for the first time finished in first place and won the conference tournament. One has to think they’ll be ahead of Gonzaga on the S curve.

-Earlier in the evening, VCU had an unbelievable first half, and Drexel countered with an unbelievable second half, but just couldn’t get over the hump. VCU wrapped up the Colonial Championship and is going back to the NCAA Tournament. Unlike last year, they will not have to play in the opening round. Drexel is a good team, and I think they belong in, but the real committee doesn’t care what I think. I’m lucky if our mock committee cares what I think. They’re squarely on the bubble and at the mercy of the committee. A lack of quality wins will work against them.

-Loyola MD is dancing for the first time since 1994 with their win over Fairfield in the MAAC Championship. Iona is still on the bubble, but one has to think their chances are far from good.

-Valparaiso is all sold out for the Horizon League Championship tonight. It would be their first conference championship, and first trip back to the dance since joining the league. They beat Butler handily over the weekend, and one would think they would be favored to beat Detroit tonight.

-The Big Sky semis are also tonight, and the stage is set for the top two seeds, Weber State and Montana to meet for the championship if both can win tonight. Montana is hosting, and they have just two home losses all year ,neither of which were conference games. That includes a rather decisive win over Weber State to end the regular season.

-Big finish to the Ivy Leage as Penn faces Princeton. If Penn wins, they’ll face Harvard on Saturday in a one game, winner take all playoff. A Penn loss will give Harvard the automatic bid due to an outright first place finish.

-The Big East Opening round gets underway today, and it involves Seton Hall and UConn, who are under consideration. They will be considered more favorably if they avoid a loss today.

-The Atlantic Ten opening round tips off at campus sites tonight. Dayton is hosting George Washington, and Saint Joseph’s is hosting Charlotte. Both are under consideration, and Saint Joe’s is actually my pick to win the tournament, but both will likely be out of the field if they can’t manage wins tonight.

-The Road to Dayton that is the MEAC Tournament also tips off today as their opening round gets underway.

Enjoy the games!!!

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Bracketology 03.06.12

As promised, here’s our next edition of the Bracket Report. We will be updating the bracket and S-curve every day this week, in order to get a better handle on the tournament field. We didn’t have a *huge* amount of changes from last time, but there were a few. Here’s the bracket:

UPON CLOSER EXAMINATION: After going through the resumes several times, I finally decided to sit Texas down, replacing them with Miami. It’s a bad batch of accomplishments in the last four in, but I ever-so-slightly favor what the Hurricanes have done. Victories against Duke and Florida State stand out in that group. Texas’s resume is a slightly worse version of Seton Hall’s, and that’s not a great recipe.

SORRY DRAGONS: I still don’t like Drexel, despite the obscene amount of love being shown for the Dragons on Twitter and SportsCenter last night. Have they had a great run the last two months? Sure they have. But it’s disingenuous of ESPN to put up Drexel’s resume “since January 4th”, as they did last night. Are we going to cherrypick the best two months of each team’s schedule? If so, then others did more against much better competition with their two months than did Drexel. If not, then we have to consider the bad losses at the start of the season, as well as the complete lack of any victories against decent teams in the out of conference section of the schedule. And with all that said…I won’t be surprised if the committee puts Drexel in. We’ve seen these situations happen in past years, and in trying to predict the committee’s approach, you have to consider Drexel (and other teams like them).

AUTO BID CARNAGE: We lost both Oral Roberts and Denver last night, and that could be a shame for both conferences. It’s almost certainly a shame for the Sun Belt, who has now lost its two best teams (the Pioneers and Middle Tennessee State) and finds itself staring down the barrel of a 16 seed, rather than the 13 or 14 seed they’d likely have received. As for the Summit League, they’ve still got a chance at decent seeding with South Dakota State. Elsewhere, the MAAC saw its seeding tumble with the loss of Iona in the semifinals, and the Gaels aren’t likely to factor into at-large discussion. Loyola does have a road win vs Bucknell, which should keep them out of the play-in game, but that’s about the extent of what the Greyhounds can hope for.

REORDERING THE SEEDS: After taking a closer look at the seeds, I’ve dropped Iowa State and Mississippi State down a couple lines, while increasing the standing of Vanderbilt and Baylor. We’ve also seen some of our previous 16 and 15 seeds rise up a bit, as witnessed by Montana and Belmont going up a full line from a week ago this time.

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Conference Tournament Viewing Guide 03.06.12

Here is the list of conference tournament games on the schedule for today, together with their available television/webstreaming options.  Please note that I only list webstreams for games without national television coverage, even if a stream may also be available. “Local TV” means that the game does not have full national coverage and you should check your local listings.  (PPV) means that the webstream has a fee.

(all times are eastern)

Tuesday, March 6

Atlantic Ten First Round:
7:00 PM    (8) Massachusetts vs (9) Duquesne    atlantic10.com (FREE)
7:00 PM    (5) St. Joseph’s vs (12) Charlotte    atlantic10.com (FREE)
7:00 PM    (7) La Salle vs (10) Richmond    atlantic10.com (FREE)
7:00 PM    (6) Dayton vs (11) George Washington    atlantic10.com (FREE)

Big East First Round:
12:00 PM    (9) Connecticut vs (16) DePaul    ESPN2
2:30 PM    (12) St. John’s vs (13) Pittsburgh    ESPN2
7:00 PM    (10) Seton Hall vs (15) Providence    ESPNU
9:30 PM    (11) Rutgers vs (14) Villanova    ESPNU

Big Sky Semifinal:
7:30 PM    (2) Weber State vs (3) Portland State    Local TV/bigskyconf.com (FREE)
10:00 PM    (1) Montana vs (4) Eastern Washington    Local TV/bigskyconf.com (FREE)

Horizon Championship:
9:00 PM    (1) Valparaiso vs (3) Detroit    ESPN

Ivy League Regular Season**:
7:30 PM    Pennsylvania at Princeton    espn3.com
** If Penn wins, there will be a one game playoff against Harvard for the automatic bid.
** If Penn loses, Harvard clinches the outright league championship and automatic bid.

MEAC First Round:
11:00 AM    (8) Hampton vs (9) Morgan State    meacsports.com (FREE)
1:30 PM    (7) North Carolina A&T vs (10) Howard    meacsports.com (FREE)
4:00 PM    (5) No. Carolina Central vs (12) Md.-East. Shore    meacsports.com (FREE)
6:30 PM    (4) Bethune-Cookman vs (13) South Carolina St.    meacsports.com (FREE)
9:00 PM    (6) Coppin State vs (11) Florida A&M    meacsports.com (FREE)

Summit Championship:
9:00 PM    (2) South Dakota State vs (4) Western Illinois    ESPN2

Sun Belt Championship:
7:00 PM    (5) North Texas vs (7) Western Kentucky    ESPN2

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Championship Week Notebook, Monday, March 5th

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK NOTEBOOK

-205 Teams Remain. That includes Wichita State, BYU, Iona and George Mason, who were eliminated from their conference tournaments, but still on the board, and Penn, who can still mathematically win the Ivy League. Technically, Middle Tennessee and Utah Valley are still on the real committee’s board, but they have been removed from this countdown since they are no longer on the board of the mock committee.

-Some heartbreak where the most deserving teams in a conference who hadn’t done quite enough for an at-large lost in their conference tournaments. Middle Tennessee had a great season, but ended it with a horrible Sun Belt Tournament game against Arkansas State. Middle missed their last five freethrows in their 64-61 loss. An at-large bid is not very likely given their complete lack of quality wins.

-Iona’s chances for an at-large are slightly better, but still not very good. They went down in the semis of the MAAC to Fairfield, after a first place finish during the regular season.

-It’s been all chalk in the Colonial, as the top two teams have advanced to hte championship game. Drexel will face VCU tonight. Both teams are on the bubble, but neither is a lock. The winner goes automatically, but the loser will get a serious look. Drexel won the league outright, but VCU appears to have the slightly better profile. We shall see.

-Exciting games in the America East semis and Summit Quarters. All games were close, and fortunately all the top seeds are still alive. Stony Brook will host Vermont on Saturday for the America East Championship, with the winner likely headed to the opening round. Oral Roberts and South Dakota State, the two best teams in the Summit, will play in the semis tonight.

-The Sun Belt is the opposite of chalk. The top two seeds are out, and one would think Denver, who had a great start to the season, but faded down the stretch, would have a clear shot at winning it. The semis are tonight.

-The SoCon championship is also tonight. Davidson is the best team, and hasn’t been challenged in their first two conference tourney games. If they can get past Western Carolina, they could be a dangerous first round matchup for whoever they face in the NCAAs.

-Gonzaga faces Saint Mary’s in the WCC Championship game. Bragging rights and seeding are all that’s at stake. Both teams are safely inside the bubble.

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Bracketology 03.05.12

We find ourselves on the opening day of Championship Week, and the bracket is as fluid as I can remember it being at this point in terms of seeding. We’ve also had some upsets in the smaller conference tournaments, which has shaken things up a bit. Let’s take a look at this week:

TOP SEED SHUFFLE: I feel for Michigan State a bit. They work all season to get themselves in 1-seed contention, then they lose the outright conference title at home AND lose their third-best scorer for the rest of the season. As we’ve seen in the past (Cincinnati in 2000, as an example), the committee doesn’t look kindly at impactful injuries to top seeds. I don’t see them dropping much below the 2 line, unless they bomb out of the B1G tourney to Iowa or Illinois. But this is definitely a difficult situation for the Spartans. Meanwhile, North Carolina grabs the fourth 1 seed…but is it safe? Not really. Ohio State could reach up and claim it with a good week in Indianapolis.

ADIOS, ARIZONA: I finally work up the courage to put the Wildcats in the field, and they respond the same day by losing to a putrid Arizona State team. Thanks, guys. Really. That should take the Wildcats out of the mix, but who knows? I like California’s chances at an at-large, and I think Washington is a near-lock due to winning the regular season championship in the Pac 12. They SHOULDN’T be a near-lock, but this is what the committee has done in the past. Oregon is playing on the margins and is still very much alive for a bid.

YES, THEY ARE WEAK…BUT…: We’ve heard lots of teams referred to as being “in trouble” in the past few days, and when you look at the resumes of teams like Southern Miss, Virginia, St. Mary’s, Seton Hall, Northwestern, etc…yes, it’s obvious that these teams are pretty weak compared to bubble teams of the past. But be realistic — there are worse teams BELOW those squads. Texas, Xavier, St. Joseph’s…these are all teams that are currently in the field, and it’d be hard to justify putting any of them above the teams that started this paragraph.

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