It is Chad’s turn to prepare this week’s HoopsHD Staff Bracket. Below is his prediction of what the NCAA Tournament would look like if today was Selection Sunday. It should be noted that Chad has an absolutely perfect record in Bracketology over the past twenty years . . . unfortunately the official NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has had a very bad record in duplicating Chad’s perfection over that time.
Below the Bracket is Chad’s Notes and Comments from other Staff Members.
Chad’s Notes:
-Although the 1 seed line should not see much in dispute, it may shock some to see me have Purdue at the very top of the 2 line (yet still heading West due to region balance and bracketing rule problems I ran into). However, the Boilermakers have 7 solid Quad 1 wins, four of which are away from home. They are 13-5 against the top 2 quadrants and don’t have any bad losses at all. This team is almost quietly starting to assert themselves and it is about time they were recognized for their success on the court this year.
-I may also get questioned for having UCLA as a 4 seed, but the Bruins have now won six in a row and their neutral court win over Arizona is looking better and better every day. Like Purdue, this team lacks any bad losses. I just really think they are playing some great basketball at the moment, and therefore let them slip into the protected seed range this week.
-I may have a pair of Big East teams seeded higher than most would expect on the 5 and 6 lines. UConn got a defining win last week at Marquette, and I believe this team is ready to start rolling as they become healthy. St. John’s is still lacking in a volume of tournament-caliber wins, but they are looking so good on the court that I cannot deny them. I am not a big fan of the “eye test”, but their defense in the final few minutes of the Marquette game was almost jaw-droppingly amazing. The two teams go head-to-head tonight and I expect a great game!
-Oregon, who was a solid protected seed very recently, barely made my 7 line this week. The Ducks are relying solely on what they did back in November (beating Alabama and Texas A&M) at this point, as they barely even look like a tournament-caliber team on the court.
-St Mary’s had been a team that was trending up and I wanted to make a case for them to be close to a protected seed . . . until last night. The loss at San Francisco did no favors for a resume that was lacking in top-level wins, and I have them back on the 8 line today.
-Texas and Ohio State both made my field (First Four) despite losing records overall against the top 3 quadrants. However, both teams are only 1 game under .500 in that category, so I was able to hold my nose and put them in. Ohio State’s huge come-from-behind win over Maryland last night may have been a season-saver.
-I have 10 Big Ten teams in my field. That is a lot from one conference. But it is nothing compared to the SEC. It is February 7 and I just put 14 SEC teams! FOURTEEN!!! However, Arkansas is suddenly playing as well as almost anyone in the nation and I could not keep them out of my First Four. There is no way that 14 will still be there on Selection Sunday, but 12 teams is very realistic. Texas and Georgia are, in my opinion, the two teams most vulnerable to dropping out.
-My top four teams out, in order, were BYU, UCF, San Francisco and SMU. The Dons’ profile has notably become very interesting with their St. Mary’s win — but they need a few more road wins for me to be ready to put them in the field. Four of their next five are on the road, including a trip to Gonzaga, so the next few weeks will tell us a lot. I also considered Xavier, USC, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Northwestern, Boise State, Oregon State, UC-San Diego, George Mason, Dayton, Stanford and North Texas. None of them obviously made the cut.
Staff Comments:
Notes from John:
– While I have no issue with Purdue as the top team on the #2 line, it’s interesting to note that Chad would have Texas A&M slightly ahead of Florida on this line. The Aggies do have a stronger strength of schedule than the Gators do; I suppose that was his reasoning. Yet if the Gators are able to finally knock off Auburn, then we have to start thinking of them as a #1 seed.
– St. John’s, while close to a protected seed, will need to do one of two things: 1) win the Big East outright or 2) get a win at either Marquette or UConn down the stretch. They’ve already knocked off Marquette at home this week, so the Johnnies are now the team to beat in the Big East. Which begs the question – will the Garden be Storrs South this year with UConn fans or will St. John’s finally have a big home court advantage when the Big East Tournament takes place in a month?
– Are we really still punishing Memphis for the Temple loss last month? Their nonconference wins like Michigan State, UConn, Ole Miss and Missouri are getting better by the day. Even the Arkansas State loss is against the Sun Belt conference leader. I’d make the case they make a slightly better protected seed than UCLA, but I’ll concede that the Bruins have more opportunities to ultimately take that spot from the Tigers.
– Illinois and Clemson are both dropping like stones, and Pittsburgh has basically sunk into the Ohio River after getting blown out on their home court by Virginia. Clemson obviously wouldn’t be punished for losing to a team like Duke at home, but a Georgia Tech loss was a big no-no. The Illini are flirting with double-digit losses and a loss at Minnesota would put them perilously close to the cut line.
– Wake has no margin for error as a First Four team right now. The only games they could afford to drop would be SMU and Duke (both road games). Getting a season sweep of Stanford wasn’t easy, but the Deacons did have to come back late in the 2nd half to win at The Farm.
– Georgia should be the team that should be petrified that Arkansas is suddenly getting hot. Texas and the Dawgs will have plenty of chances to get solidly above the cut line in the SEC, but they better not end up in a situation where they finish 6 games under .500 in conference play. I think 7-11 in the SEC would be passable depending on who they are able to beat. Not 6-12.
Notes From David Griggs:
-I’m not nearly as big on Florida as most of the rest of the world seems to be. They have a home win against Tennessee. After that, their next best wins are against the Texas and Arkansas teams that Chad barely has in his field, and at the time they beat Arkansas they were not the same team they’ve been in these last eight days. I know I am an outlier on this, but I will continue to beat this drum until the Gators do get a few more wins that match the level of the rest of the protected seeds, or everyone else comes around to my genius thinking!!
-I do agree with Drake and UC Irvine both being on the 10 line. If anything I think UC San Diego should have gotten a little bit more love.
