Small Conference Game of the Day – January 29

Once again, Grambling suffered a double digit loss and moved one step closer to being the worst college basketball team of all time.  Their next game is at conference leader Southern on Saturday, after which they should fall to 0-19.

For tonight’s SCGD, we turn to a conference that may not quite qualify as a small conference, but as it is one of the more intriguing games on the calendar this evening, we will focus on it anyhow.  the game is out of the Missouri Valley Conference, where Indiana State is going on the road to take on Wichita State (8:00PM Eastern, espn3).  Wichita is currently in sole possession of first place in the league at 8-1, has a Top 25 ranking, an RPI of 18, and has non-conference wins over VCU, Iowa and Southern Miss.  Indiana State is 6-3 in the MVC and 13-7 overall, but has a solid RPI of 50, a KenPom Rating of 84, and has a pair of neutral court wins over Ole Miss and Miami at the Diamond Head Classic.  Their losses have not been awful either, including the likes of New Mexico, San Diego State, UCLA and Creighton (though losing to Southern Illinois and Morehead State did hurt).

Indiana State is looking for their first win at Wichita since 2004.  The Sycamores are led by Jake Odum, who is 45 points away from 1000 on his career, and Manny Arop.  Wichita, on the other hand, is led by Carl Hall, who had a double-double in their win over Creighton, and keep an eye on Cleanthony Early who had 39 points against Southern Illinois.

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Bracketology Podcast: 1/27/2013

Lots covered here, including last weeks games of interest and how the impacted the Bracketology picture. We also talked about the Mountain West and how many teams they could get in. The panelists also debated what the top four lines of the S Curve would look like if the season ended today.

Eric Prisbell from USA Today was this week’s guest. All that, and more…

http://www.crimsoncast.com/2013/01/bracket-racket-01-27-12/

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 28

Northeastern took a commanding lead in the CAA last night, handling George Mason somewhat easily.  The slate of games tonight is rather weak, so the SCGD is going to be returning to the bottom of the SWAC and the bottom of Division I hoops as we revisit our friends at Grambling State.

While Grambling lost in its last appearance in the SCGD, and suffered yet another defeat this weekend, they once again have a chance to pick up that elusive first victory tonight when they host Mississippi Valley State at 8:30PM Eastern.  While Grambling is dead last in RPI and KenPom ratings, MVSU is not that far away.  The Delta Devils rank 341/347 in RPI and 340/347 in Pomeroy.  While they do have 2 wins, they were victories over another pair of 325+ RPI teams from the SWAC, Prairie View and Alabama A&M.  By the numbers, MVSU is currently the second worst team in the SWAC after Grambling, meaning this is their best shot at a victory tonight — though given how weak the entire conference is after front-runner Southern, there will be a few more chances if they don’t win this one.

As a side note, also of interest to the SCGD today is the announcement of the matchups for the 2013 BrackBusters.  Some key home teams in this year’s pool are Long Beach State, Valparaiso, Akron, Indiana State, Wichita State, Belmont, Davidson, and St. Mary’s.  The top road teams are Montana, Detroit, Iona, Ohio U, Creighton, Stephen F Austin and South Dakota State.  It would be great to wee at least half a dozen matchups among these teams, such as Creighton at Belmont, Stephen F Austin at Akron (or at St. Mary’s), and South Dakota State at Wichita State.  (UPDATE: Announcements will be next Monday, Feb. 4 now.)

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Field of 68 Projection – January 27

For the first time this season, here is my Field of 68, broken down by conference through games of January 27.  Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.

America East (1): Stony Brook
ACC (5): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Ten (3): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle
Big East (8): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
Big Ten (8): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa
Big Twelve (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss
Horizon (1): Valparaiso
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Iona
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West (4): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
Northeast (1): Bryant
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (4): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (3): Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Stephen F Austin
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee
West Coast (3): Gonzaga, BYU, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech

Last four in: Iowa, Southern Miss, Colorado, St. Mary’s
Last four out: Maryland, St. John’s, Arizona State, Wyoming
Others considered: Charlotte, Saint Louis, Indiana State, Boise State

A few notes about this week’s field:

Villanova went from off the radar to into the field with two huge wins this week.  However, they better not rest on their laurels, as they can easily slide right back out of the field.  St. John’s has also been putting together some wins as of late and is very close to being in the field.

I am not sure how Iowa made it in my field, other than the fact that I just like their resume and their conference a lot more than anyone else.  Their loss today to Purdue hurt though and they have a lot of work to do.

I have been among the biggest Pac-12 haters the past few seasons, but I had to concede that the top of the conference is finally coming around.  Arizona and Oregon are both among the top 10-15 teams in the nation right now and UCLA is pretty solidly inn the current field.  Colorado and Arizona State are also right there.  Maybe the connference is finally coming back.

Finally, the SEC is starting to look like the worst of the power conferences.  While Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri made it in easily, I didn’t even consider anyone else (not even Kentucky).  That being said, I am very high on this Florida team and would not be shocked to see them cutting down the nets on a Monday night in April.

Finally, while still very early, here is my S-Curve of these 68 teams:

1. Michigan
2. Kansas
3. Florida
4. Indiana
5. Duke
6. Syracuse
7. Arizona
8. Louisville
9. Gonzaga
10. Oregon
11. Ohio State
12. Miami
13. Butler
14. Michigan State
15. Wichita State
16. North Carolina State
17. Kansas State
18. New Mexico
19. Creighton
20. Minnesota
21. San Diego State
22. Wisconsin
23. Georgetown
24. VCU
25. Notre Dame
26. Marquette
27. Ole Miss
28. Missouri
29. Colorado State
30. Belmont
31. Cincinnati
32. UCLA
33. Pittsburgh
34. UNLV
35. Akron
36. Illinois
37. Oklahoma State
38. North Carolina
39. Baylor
40. Middle Tennessee
41. Oklahoma
42. BYU
43. La Salle
44. Villanova
45. Iowa State
46. Memphis
47. Virginia
48. Southern Miss
49. Colorado
50. St. Mary’s
51. Iowa
52. Stephen F Austin
53. South Dakota State
54. Louisiana Tech
55. Bucknell
56. Montana
57. Long Beach State
58. Valparaiso
59. Northeastern
60. Harvard
61. Davidson
62. Iona
63. Southern
64. Florida Gulf Coast
65. Stony Brook
66. Charleston Southern
67. North Carolina Central
68. Bryant

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 27

After another great SCGD yesterday, with Northwestern State knocking Stephen F Austin out of the ranks of the teams that are undefeated in their conference, we turn today to the Colonial, and a huge matchup (8:00 PM Eastern, Comcast Sports) between George Mason and Northeastern.

Unlike some recent years where the CAA has either given us an at-large team or at least been in the bubble talk, the Colonial this season seems to be fairly certain to be a one bid league.  This is in part due to Virginia Commonwealth having moved on to the Atlantic Ten.  In addition, four of the remaining 11 teams are ineligible for the conference tournament (Towson and UNC-Wilmington due to APR, Old Dominion and Georgia State due to a conference rule that teams that are leaving after the season cannot win the automatic bid).  However, the top of the league so far this season has been all about the Northeastern Huskies.

Northeastern is 7-0 in league and 12-7 overall, including a solid non-conference win over Belmont.  They have an RPI of 130 and a Pomeroy of 160.  George Mason is also 12-7 overall but 5-2 in conference.  They do have a big win over Virginia back in their very first game of the season, but added in some bad losses including a recent loss to UNC-Wilmington.  Their RPI is 106 and their Pomeroy is 107.  This is the second matchup of the season between the two teams, with Northeastern having previously scored an 84-74 win at George Mason.  A win at home tonight will give them a commanding 3 game lead in the conference as the league season nears its mid-point.

Joel Smith leads the way for the Huskies, averaging 16.7 points per game.  Also keep an eye on Quincy Ford who won co-player of the week in the CAA last week.  For George Mason, Sherrod Wright is averaging 18.4 points per game to lead the team.  Also keep an eye on freshman Marko Gujanicic off the bench, as he registered a double-double against James Madison last week to take CAA Rookie of the Week honors.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 26

After a streak of great picks by the SCGD, we finally found a clunker last night, as Florida Gulf Coast completely dominated Stetson and cruised to an easy victory.  There are a ton of choices for today’s game, including a top battle in the Summit League between North Dakota State and South Dakota State, the rematch in the Ohio Valley between Belmont and Eastern Kentucky, a top battle in the WAC between Louisiana Tech and Utah State, and even a first place battle in the Great West between Texas-Pan American and NJIT.

However, today we will be turning to the Southland conference and focusing on a team that is starting to get some attention from Top 25 voters – the 16-1 Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin.  Despite their gaudy record, SFA sits only at 69 in the RPI and 55 in Pomeroy.  This is in part due to their choice to schedule four non-Division I foes this season.  However, they only lost one game (at Texas A&M) and scored a very solid road win back in December over Oklahoma.  The Lumberjacks have also already won at Oral Roberts, which was on paper their toughest conference road game this season.

This afternoon (4:00 PM Eastern), they go on the road to play the Demons of Northwestern State.  While the trip to ORU may have been their toughest game in league, today’s game is easily their second toughest.  Northwestern State is 5-2 in league and 11-6 overall on the season so far, including a win over WAC leader Louisiana Tech.  This may be the best chance for anyone to beat SFA in conference this season.  If the Lumberjacks get past today’s game, they will be heavy favorites in all conference games leading up to the Southland tournament championship game.  In fact, their toughest game left on their slate will be their Bracket Buster matchup, where they are slated to be a road team.  The Bracket Buster announcements will be coming Monday, and if SFA wins, it would be incredible to see them travel to play Wichita State, though a trip to St. Mary’s, Akron or Belmont would all be intriguing games as well.

As for the game itself, this has a chance to be a great matchup.  Stephen F. Austin leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 49.4 points per game.  On the other side, Northwestern State leads the nation in offense, averaging 85.0 points per game.  SFA is led by Taylor Smith who has had four double-doubles in his last five games and Desmond Haymon who had a double-double in his last game.  Northwestern State features DeQuan Hicks and Shamir Davis as their top two scorers, though both Jalan West and James Hulbin are also averaging double figures in scoring.

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