Bracket Tactics: HoopsHD provides some tips for surviving and advancing

The best week of the year is finally here! This is the time when we ponder the impact of geography, the importance of having a veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!

TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Texas A&M (lost to Texas in the SEC tourney 2nd round)/UCLA (lost to Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.

TIP #2: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Kentucky coach Mark Pope/Michigan coach Dusty May.

TIP #3: Since UNLV from the Big West won it all in 1990, 32 of the past 33 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn from the AAC in 2014): ACC (11), Big East (9), SEC (6), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (2), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the MWC/WCC to win it all.

TIP #4: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Arizona (Tommy Lloyd has 3 prior tourney appearances)/Missouri (Dennis Gates has 2 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.

TIP #5: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You must play the best to learn how to beat the best so you might want to stay away from Utah State (SOS: 83)/VCU (SOS: 92).

TIP #6: There are 9 active coaches who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Rick Pitino of St. John’s (72%)/Bill Self of Kansas (71.3%) to be catching an early flight home.

TIP #7: There are 5 schools who have won at least 85% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Duke (33-4)/Maryland (22-3) are near-automatic in their opening games.

TIP #8: There are 9 schools who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (20-4) is looking good vs. the Oregon-Liberty winner if they can win their 1st round game, and if not then Clemson (5-1) is not a bad alternative.

TIP #9: There are 6 schools who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Florida (9-2) has played great in their Sweet 16 games so Maryland & Memphis should beware.

TIP #10: There are 10 schools who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on some of the best seeds in case either Houston (6-1)/Michigan State (10-4) can make it to the 2nd weekend.

TIP #11: There are 9 schools who have won at least 60% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan is 7-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the South Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.

TIP #12: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Maryland (no postseason appearance in 2024)/Memphis (no postseason appearance in 2024) are certainly ready for primetime…but might not be ready to go all the way.

TIP #13:
There are 12 schools who are undefeated in their NCAA tournament games in a specific state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Duke must be thrilled with their possible trip to Newark because they are 10-0 all-time in the state of New Jersey.

TIP #14: There are 8 schools who have won at least 75% of their NCAA tournament games as an automatic-bid team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Florida because when they win the SEC tourney and get an automatic-bid they are near-unstoppable (17-2).

TIP #15: BYU has played in the most NCAA tournaments (31) without ever making the Final 4.
STRATEGY: If the Cougars could not reach the Final 4 with Danny Ainge/Jimmer Fredette then they will probably not make it with this year’s squad.

TIP #16: Since 1988 only 3 champs have not been a top-3 seed (#4 Arizona in 1997, #7 UConn in 2014, #4 UConn in 2023)
STRATEGY: Arizona/Purdue might be nice sleeper picks but the odds are against them winning it all.

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Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Arkansas State SR SG/SF Anna Griffin

Last week Arkansas State beat JMU 86-79 in OT in the Sun Belt women’s tourney to earned an automatic bid to this week’s NCAA tournament. The Red Wolves had a losing season for 6 straight but are now heading to the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in school history. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Arkansas State SR SG/SF Anna Griffin about being a good rebounder and making the NCAA tourney.

You were born/raised in Illinois and started your college career at Virginia: why did you decide to transfer, and what made you choose Arkansas State? Virginia was not the place for me and I felt like I could find a better fit somewhere else. Arkansas State was always a school I had in mind, and I believe that Virginia not working out was a sign for me to go to A-State. The family atmosphere/coaches were great.

What is the biggest difference between the ACC and the Sun Belt? The biggest difference for me is that the ACC felt more like a business both on and off the court. In the Sun Belt I feel like part of a family all the time and can just play my game.

You play for Coach Destinee Rogers: what makes her such a good coach, and what is the most important thing that you have learned from her so far? Coach Dezz never gives up: she is always willing to do the work to make her players successful. The most important thing I have learned is that when life knocks you down you must get back up no matter what and always work hard.

In 2023 you scored a career-high 24 PTS in a loss at JMU: was it just 1 of those scenarios where every shot you put up seemed to go in because you were “in the zone”? I always played well against JMU and just had an “underdog” mentality. Nobody believed in us whenever we played them, and my mentality was always to work even harder.

You led A-State with 7.7 RPG as a sophomore: what is the secret to being a good rebounder? I believe that good rebounding is all about technique: reading where the ball lands while also making sure you hold off your opponent is key.

Your former teammate Izzy Higginbottom was named Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in 2023, 1st-Team All-Sun Belt in 2014, and led the SEC in scoring with 24.4 PPG for Arkansas this year: was it weird to face her last November in Fayetteville? It was not weird for me: just another game against somebody I know. I have played against a lot of former teammates before and there is no bad blood…but once you cross those lines and step onto that court, I no longer know you.

You lost back-to-back road games in late-February: how was you team able to turn things around at the right time? Coach Dezz has always told us that we were made to battle. We have crossed paths with adversity before and beat it. It was nothing to hang our heads about and obviously we did not because the result was even greater.

Last Monday you scored 13 PTS in a 7-PT OT win over JMU to clinch a spot in the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in school history: how on earth were you able to overcome a 17-PT 1st half deficit, and what did it mean to you to win a title? We are battle-tested: we have been down before and came back. It is all about how you get up rather than how hard you get knocked down. My teammates and I were not fazed and kept pushing to get the results we have worked all year for. We were made for this moment: it was all within God’s plan.

Your team’s 10.6 3PM this year is #1 in the nation: how crucial is the 3-PT shot to your team’s offensive philosophy? It is very crucial. When you are leading the nation in an offensive category, most people would say it is their “#1 thing” or “only offense”, but to be honest we have many weapons. So yes, it is our best weapon…but it is not the only 1 we have.

How do you feel about being a #15 seed facing UConn? For me the seeding does not matter. We have been doubted all year, from being ranked 13th in the preseason poll to playing our Sun Belt opponents, but none of that matters. In the end, the ones who are doubted hold the prize.

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Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Arkansas State women’s coach Destinee Rogers

Last week Arkansas State beat JMU 86-79 in OT in the Sun Belt women’s tourney to earned an automatic bid to this week’s NCAA tournament. The Red Wolves had a losing season for 6 straight but are now heading to the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in school history. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Arkansas State coach Destinee Rogers about the importance of 3-PT shooting and making the NCAA tourney.

You were a 3-year starter at Central Arkansas: how good a player were you back in the day? I was a coach on the floor and prided myself on being an elite point guard who got the ball where it needed to go. I also tried to be a good leader for our team.

How did you get into coaching? I watched my dad coach my whole life. I have been around the game of basketball for a long time, and it became life for me at an early age.

As an assistant at your alma mater your team set a school record with 28 wins in 2016 and made the 1st NCAA tourney in school history: what are your memories of that magical season? How hard it was. It is not easy to win, but when you have a team that truly believes then you can achieve anything. The biggest thing I learned that year is that you win with a “we over me” mentality.

In 2021 you became the 1st African-American female head coach to win a game in school history: how big a deal was it? It was a huge deal because I truly felt the moment was far greater than me. I was thankful to God first and foremost, but I also felt like it was an opportunity for me to open the door for someone else who looks like me.

You had a losing record in each of your 1st 2 years: what has clicked in year #3? The first two years were tough because we could not play the way that we really wanted to. This year is the first year that every kid on our team was a kid who we recruited.

Your former player Izzy Higginbottom was named Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in 2023, 1st-Team All-Sun Belt in 2014, and led the SEC in scoring with 24.4 PPG for Arkansas this year: was it weird to face her last November in Fayetteville? Not weird at all. I love Izzy and was truly happy to witness her success here as well as in Arkansas. She deserves it and I am super-proud of her.

You lost back-to-back road games in late-February: how was you team able to turn things around at the right time? It happened for a reason. It was an opportunity for us to regroup and learn some lessons that would later help us win the tournament.

Last Monday you had a 7-PT OT win over JMU to clinch a spot in the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in school history: how on earth were you able to overcome a 17-PT 1st half deficit, and what did it mean to you to win a title? God is the greatest: we trust his plan even when others do not. We overcame the deficit because we believed that we could. It came down to getting stops so that we could get out in transition and create advantages for our offense. We had to wake up and stop playing scared.

Your team’s 10.6 3PM this year is #1 in the nation: how crucial is the 3-PT shot to your offensive philosophy? We value taking good shots, period, whether that is a three or a layup. We want to shoot the best available shot each possession and a lot of times that is a three because we drive and kick the ball a ton.

How do you feel about being a #15 seed facing UConn? People have bet against us all year so this will be no different. We will take whatever seed we are given and are grateful to be dancing.

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Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews San Diego State dancer Kailey Lagestee

Last Thursday San Diego State lost to Boise State in the MWC tourney but still earned an at-large bid to this week’s NCAA tournament. The Aztecs have now had a winning season for 20 straight years and are heading back to the NCAA tourney for the 5th year in a row. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with San Diego State dancer SR Kailey Lagestee about being a captain and making the NCAA tourney.
*NOTE: special thanks to Kailey for taking time out of her busy day to answer these questions literally hours before her team takes the court tonight in the 1st 4!

You grew up in Orange County, CA: what made you choose San Diego State? I chose San Diego State because of the beautiful location, strong child development program, and collegiate-level dance team. The dance team was a significant factor in why I chose SDSU: I fell in love with the family-oriented environment, as well as the dedication/passion the team radiates.

You are majoring in Early Childhood Development: how did you choose that subject? My love for working with kids began at a young age due to my large family. My major in Early Childhood Development has given me the opportunity to work in several different childcare settings.

You are a senior: what is the post-graduation plan? Having the opportunity to be exposed to working in childcare, I have developed a love for teaching elementary education. I will be working to receive my teaching credential after graduation.

You have been captain of the dance team for the past 3 years: what is the key to being a good leader? After being a captain of the San Diego State dance team for three years, I have learned several factors that contribute to being a strong leader. Gaining the respect of my teammates by leading by example and putting the team first, while also creating strong connections and relationships with my teammates, helps make them feel supported.

You were a 2-time silver medalist at UDA College Nationals: what did it mean to you to receive such outstanding honors? Receiving the opportunity to compete at such a high-caliber competition is a privilege in itself. Being able to represent our university proudly in the D1A hip-hop category is extremely rewarding. Being one of the few all-girl teams in this category and receiving two silver medals in this division is a huge honor, thanks to our consistent hard work.

The Aztecs have made some great postseason runs in recent years: do you have a favorite memory? In 2024 the Aztecs made it to the Sweet 16, and a core memory from those games includes cheering at the game against Yale. The energy in the arena was unmatched and the players’ confidence radiated throughout the venue.

1 of your hobbies is exploring new restaurants: do you have a favorite cuisine? Choosing a favorite cuisine is difficult, but while in San Diego I have loved exploring several Mexican restaurants.

How does your school decide who gets to go to the NCAA tourney, and what will it mean to you to see your group doing its thing in front of a national TV audience? Our team typically decides who goes to the NCAA by seniority and several other factors throughout the year. Watching our team on national television is such a privilege due to the love and dedication we have for cheering on the Aztecs.

Does your squad have anything extra-special planned for this week? We plan to cheer on the Aztecs’ men’s team at their First Four NCAA tournament game, and are also cheering on the women’s team at their First Round NCAA tournament game in Louisiana.

Any predictions for your game tonight vs. North Carolina in Dayton? I believe we will have an Aztec win! We will always support and cheer on the Aztecs.

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Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Memphis pom team member Bailey Rollins

Last Sunday Memphis beat UAB 84-72 in the AAC tourney title game to earn an automatic bid to this week’s NCAA tournament. The Tigers have now had a winning season for 25 straight years and are heading back to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in 4 years. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Memphis pom team member Bailey Rollins about winning the conference tourney and making the NCAA tourney.

You are from Nashville, TN: what made you choose Memphis? I knew the coach (Carol Lloyd) and had some other friends who enjoyed their experiences up here. I attended a couple clinics and loved the vibe so it drew me in.

You are majoring in exercise sport and movement sciences and minoring in psychology and medical assisting: how did you choose those subjects? When I arrived on campus I was planning to attend nursing school so I did all my prerequisites for that, applied to nursing school, and got accepted…but it is impossible to do both at the same time so I chose to dance on the team for 2 more years. I thought about becoming a Physical Therapist/Physician Assistant, but now I will use my medical assisting minor to go to nursing school at Vanderbilt in August.

You are a senior: what is the post-graduate school plan?
Nursing school is an accelerated masters program that will last 4 straight semesters. After that I hope to get a job at a hospital, get some experience, and then possibly do some travel nursing.

1 of your hobbies is cooking: what is your specialty? I just love to cook anything in general. I cook almost all my meals after growing up watching my parents/Nana cook.

Last Sunday in the AAC tourney title game the Tigers had a win over UAB to clinch the title: what was the reaction like after the final buzzer went off, and how excited is everyone on campus this week? It was amazing! The whole pom and cheer teams were yelling and it was good to have such a live experience. The energy throughout the arena was crazy and is also good on campus.

Your team has won 20 of its past 22 games: has it reached a point where everyone expects the team to win every time that they step onto the court? We do not “know” they will win…but we do “expect” them to win. They have held their own against the toughest teams and been clutch when needed.

Your basketball team missed the NCAA tourney last year but made it in 2022/2023: did you make it to either of those 2 tourneys? I went to the 1 in 2023, which was very fun. I was not as excited back then because this year the team has a different aspect that makes everything so much more dynamic. I am excited that we have already made it this far.

How does your school decide who gets to go to the NCAA tourney, and what will it mean to you to see your group doing its thing in front of a national TV audience? We took all of our seniors on pom/cheer. We have 6 seniors on pom so that worked out perfectly. It will be a great experience, and to share our talent while supporting the basketball team means the world to me. I would not trade it for anything and it has been 1 of the best experiences of my life.

Does your squad have anything extra-special planned for this week? We will do a send-off tomorrow with our team members who are not going. After we arrive we are attending a couple of special events to support the team. I am sure we will do send-offs every day if we continue to win and we will be their biggest fans on the court.

Any predictions for you game on Friday vs. Colorado State in Seattle? I predict that we will win. It will be tough, as Colorado State has won 10 in a row, but if we play hard then I see no reason why we will not pull it off.

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Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Kansas State SO G Taryn Sides

Kansas State lost to West Virginia 73-69 in the Big 12 women’s tourney quarterfinals but still earned an at-large bid to this week’s NCAA tournament. The Wildcats won just 9 games in 2021 but since then they have had 4 straight winning seasons and are heading back to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in 4 years. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Kansas State SO G Taryn Sides about growing up in a tiny town and making the NCAA tourney.

You are from Phillipsburg, KS (population 2337): what was it like growing up in such a tiny town? My graduating class was about 40, but it was fun because I grew up with a great group of friends and played every sport that you can think of. The community was so supportive and still shows up to see me play home games at Bramlage Coliseum.

What made you choose Kansas State? I grew up a K-State fan so it was always my dream school. Manhattan is a college town where everything revolves around our sports program, and we have a great coaching staff/teammates.

You are 5’6”: do you see your height as an advantage or disadvantage on the court? It can be difficult at times on offense to pass/shoot against a taller defender, but on defense I can be a little pest!

Last year you made the Big 12 Academic All-Rookie Team: how do you balance your work on the court with your work in the classroom? Sometimes it can be tough so the most important thing is to stay on top of everything. I schedule my week in advance to know when I will do homework and when I will be in the gym, which has helped a lot.

This season you are scoring almost 10 PPG despite coming off the bench: what is the secret to being a “super-sub”? I just come in and do what my coach asks of me and what the team needs. I try to be a decoy on some plays but my teammates have confidence in my ability to make shots.

The Big 12 made some big changes this year by adding 4 new teams: how do you feel about conference realignment? I like it! It is cool to play against some other schools. We went to Utah this year and will go to Arizona next year, so it is even more excitement.

Your team started this season 19-1 but lost 6 of your final 13 games including a Big 12 tourney loss to West Virginia: are you concerned that your team might have peaked too early?
Not at all. We lost our All-American in Ayoka Lee so I think that we did pretty well under the circumstances. It was an adjustment to play without her, but now that she is back I think we are headed in the right direction.

You received an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney: how did it feel to hear your team’s name called on Selection Sunday? It is always a surreal feeling because it is hard to make the NCAA tourney. We were a little disappointed to not play at home as a #4 seed, but now we are excited to play on the road.

Your brother Trey played basketball at Jacksonville, your mother Robin played college volleyball, and your father Keith played college basketball: who is the best athlete in the family? You would have to ask them but it depends on the day.

How do you feel about being a #5 seed, and what do you know about Fairfield? Losing at home last year to Colorado left a sour taste in my mouth. Fairfield is quick and are top-20 in transition offense. They have good shooters so it will be a different matchup for us.

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