HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD WATCH (Click Here to View the Whole Board):
MAC:
-Northern Illinois out with a loss (at Akron) or wins by both Western Michigan (at Ball State) and Kent State (vs Central Michigan)
-Eastern Michigan out with a loss (vs Miami-Ohio) and wins by both Western Michigan (at Ball State) and Kent State (vs Central Michigan)
NEC:
-Saint Francis U out with a loss (vs Le Moyne) and a Stonehill win (at Central Connecticut)
OVC:
-TennesseeTech out with loss. Also out with a win, a Southern Indiana win and one of Morehead State, Tennessee State or SIUE win
SWAC:
-Prairie View out with loss (vs Alcorn State) and Alabama A&M win (vs Alabama State) and Pine Bluff win (vs Miss Valley)
IVY:
-Harvard out with a loss (at Yale) or a Brown win (vs Dartmouth)
.
NEWS AND NOTES:
-Dayton and Loyola Chicago did not disappoint! The game was close all throughout and came down to the last minute of play before Loyola held on for the 77-72 win. Dayton is in no danger of missing the field, but they probably aren’t within reach of a protected seed like we thought a few weeks ago. It was a missed opportunity at a quality road win, and it knocks them down to 3rd place in the conference standings, and 2 games behind the Richm0nd Spiders, who can clinch a share of 1st place with a win today.
.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-FLORIDA AT SOUTH CAORLINA (SEC). Both teams are in the top 25, both appear to be positioning themselves to land in the top half of the bracket, and South Carolina seems to be within reach of a protected seed. It’s a resume building opportunity for both teams, and it should be a good game.
-VILLANOVA AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). This is a super-bubblicious game with super high stakes for both teams. We have Nova right on the bubble, and Providence just inside it, but Providence is also coming off a rough loss and needs to bounce back. This has the feel of a pivotal high-stakes game for both teams.
-KANSAS AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Both teams seem to be virtual locks for protected seeds, and this is a big resume-building opportunity today. Kansas is looking to bounce back from a surprising loss against BYU, and Baylor is looking to pick up a signature road win
-ILLINOIS AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Wisky is going in the wrong direction and needs to bounce back. This should be a winnable game considering they’re at home, but it is hardly a guarantee. Illinois does have some nice road wins and they are within reach of a protected seed. This win would definitely boost their resume.
-OREGON AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). Arizona is among the five (and maybe six) teams that look to be in solid contention for a #1 seed, but they have to hold serve in games like this in order to get there. Oregon is outside the bubble, but if you look at them they do have some good stuff on their resume, and while this win is a huge long-shot, if they were to get it, it could actually vault them all the way into our field.
-MARQUETTE AT CREIGHTON (Big East). Both teams are ranked in the top 15, both appear to be solid protected seeds, and while I don’t think Marquette will play their way all the way up to the #1 line, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them get a #2 seed. In short, it’s mostly a litmus test as both teams look like solid protected seeds that will remain that way despite who wins, but it should still be a fun game and will impact the seedlist.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT AUBURN (SEC). Mississippi State has just two true road wins on the year, but the two they’ve won were the last two they’ve played. I think they’re reasonably safe as far as making the field so long as they continue to hold serve, but if they were to get THIS win on the road, but would really give their resume a boost and shoot them up the seedlist. Auburn looks to be within reach of a protected seed so long as they hold serve the rest of the way.
-SOUTH FLORIDA AT CHARLOTTE (American). South Florida has already clinched at least a share of 1st place and can get it outright with a win today. While Charlotte is not a team that’s inside the bubble, this would still be a good road win for the Bulls and help strengthen their case that they belong in the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t win the conference tournament. Charlotte is 11-1 at home, and a solid win by South Florida should give their metrics a boost, which is important because some of their metrics could use some boosting.
-WAKE FOREST AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). Many seem convinced that Wake is inside the bubble. I for one think they are right on it and still have some work to do, especially considering they lost on the road at Notre Dame last week. To date, they are just 2-8 in true road games, and the two games they did win were against weak teams. While they do have some decent wins at home, I think they’ve only beaten two teams at home that have winning road records. Having said all that, a win today at VA Tech would constitute “doing a lot of work.” VA Tech is very strong at home, and if Wake pulls this off the committee should give them a lot of credit for it.
-IOWA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Iowa is moving closer to the bubble, and if they can knock off Northwestern it would be a huge step forward. Northwestern seems to be moving up the seedlist and they should be able to hold serve at home. While Iowa has been playin better they’ve still struggled on the road this year.
-VIRGINIA AT DUKE (ACC). It’s been painful watching Virginia, but their paper is actually solid and they look to be a solid tournament team. If they can win this then their resume will suddenly look a ton better. Duke, on the other hand, should land on one of the top four lines so long as they can hold serve the rest of the way.
-PITTSBURGH AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). I think Pitt is a lot closer to the bubble than what most other people think. Having said that, if they can’t win this one on the road, I will probably no longer think that.
-VCU AT RICHMOND (Atlantic 10). This game is worth paying attention to. It’s a rivalry game and it should be a good one, but the real reason to watch is that Richmond has a two game lead over Dayton in the A-10 standings and can clinch at least a share of 1st place, and since they won head-to-head, they presumably hold the tie-breaker.
-HOUSTON AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12) – Houston is the top ranked team, they deserve to be the top ranked team, and while this is a very tough road game to win against a probable NCAA Tournament team, they’ve shown that they can win tough games on the road. It would be a nice resume boost for the Sooners if they can pull it off, but even at home this is a very tough game to win.
-MICHIGAN STATE AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Michigan State looks like a team that should make the NCAA Tournament, and Purdue looks like a team that could go to the Final Four. A win for the Spartans would silence any and all critics, but it’s much easier said than done.
-TENNESSEE AT ALABAMA (SEC). Tennessee could still end up as a 1 seed, and a win today would be a huge statement that they belong up there. Alabama looks like they can end up as a protected seed, and a win today for the Tide gets them one step closer to that. Even with a loss I still think the Vols are safely on the #2 line (for now).
-NEW MEXICO AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). After their loss to Air Force, New Mexico’s resume is starting to look incredibly flimsy. A win today can completely offset that because Boise State keeps looking better and better, and just blew out that same Air Force team that won at New Mexico. Boise is on pace to land in the top half of the bracket if they continue to hold serve.
-TCU AT BYU (Big 12). BYU is coming off a massive win at Kansas and has all but locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament, and is now playing to continue to improve their seed. TCU is also solidly in the field and can put another really big road win on their resume, which would move them up the seedlist.
-GONZAGA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Saint Mary’s can complete the perfect season with a win over their rivals tonighht. They can also make Gonzaga sweat it out because while the Zags appear to be inside the bubble, they aren’t quite a lock yet. Having said that, if they win tonight, they likely will be. The Zags looked really impressive earlier this week against San Francisco, but this is a much tougher test tonight.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Tulane @ Florida Atlantic (American) – FAU is safely inside the bubble, but they need to hold serve. Any additional losses to non-tournament caliber teams, especially at home, will hurt their profile
–Butler @ DePaul (Big East) – If Butler wins out and picks up another key win in the Big East Tournament they may get a serious look, but they are solidly outside our bubble right now
–Arkansas @ Kentucky (SEC) – Arkansas has had a disappointing season, whereas Kentucky is really starting to hit their stride. The Wildcats can end up as a protected seed and they should be able to hold serve in this one
–Oklahoma State @ Texas (Big 12) – Oklahoma State has had some good games recently, but Texas is coming off a great win at Texas Tech and should be able to hold serve at home in this one
–UTSA @ SMU (American) – I suppose at-large hopes are still barely flickering for SMU, but while they may be on the board I don’t think they get into the field without winning the auto-bid
-Iowa State @ UCF (Big 12) – this should be a winnable road game for the Cyclones, which would be their 5th of the year, and should keep them on pace to earn a protected seed
–NC State @ North Carolina (ACC) – this is a rivalry game, and sometimes that can be a bit of an equalizer, but NC State is outside the bubble and UNC is within reach of the #1 line, so the Tarheels should be able to hold serve at home
–Wyoming @ Colorado State (Mountain West, Front Range) – We at Hoops HD Love the Front Range!!! Colorado State is solidly inside the bubble and will remain there so long as they can continue to hold serve. This is a rivalry game, but it’s one they should win
-UCLA @ Washington State – since their big win at Arizona, Wazzu has lost to Arizona State and struggled to beat a less-than-great USC team the other night. They’re safe for a bid and should land in the top half of the bracket if they can continue to hold serve, but slip-ups against teams outside the field will hurt their seed
–Kansas State @ Cincinnati (Big 12) – K State is outside the bubble and needs a strong finish to get inside of it. A road win in a game like this would certainly help
–Clemson @ Notre Dame (ACC) – Clemson is clearly the superior team and I think they could even play their way onto the top four lines, but while ND is nowhere near the NCAA Tournament, they have been able to give several good teams fits on their home court this year
–Syracuse @ Louisville (ACC) – some feel that Cuse is getting closer to the bubble. I think I agree, but a loss tonight changes all that
–Ole Miss @ Missouri (SEC) – If Ole Miss is going to play their way back inside the bubble, they need to win this game tonight. They need to do a lot more after this, but a loss tonight could all but eliminate them
-California @ Utah (Pac 12) – Utah still has some work to do and they need to hold serve in this one. They also need to be on upset alert. Cal is nowhere near the bubble, but they have been playing better over the past four weeks
–San Jose State @ UNLV (Mountain West) – UNLV continues to string together wins and make a case that they should at least be on the bubble. They should be able to get this one tonight without too much trouble, which gets them to 11-5 in the MWC
.
UNDER THE RADAR CONFERENCE WATCH:
-Appalachian State has clinched 1st place in the Sun Belt
-Eastern Kentucky, despite the loss, clinched the top seed in the Atlantic Sun
-Yale, Cornell, and Princeton all won and are all deadlocked in the Ivy League standings, and Brown won a huge game against Harvard and can wrap up 4th place and the last conference tournament spot with a win today.
–Stonehill @ Central Connecticut (Northeast) – Central Connecticut can still get at least a share of first place, but they need to win this one and they need Merrimack to lose at Sacred Heart
–High Point @ Longwood (Big South) – High Point has already clinched 1st place
–Hofstra @ Charleston (Coastal Athletic) – Charleston has already clinched 1st place, but could get a battle at home tonight against a Hofstra team that’s looked pretty good since mid-January
–South Dakota State @ North Dakota State (Summit League) – South Dakota State has already clinched 1st place, but will still want to end the season with a road win against their rivals
–The Citadel @ Samford (SoCon) – Samford has already clinched 1st place and should blow thorough this one tonight
–UMass Lowell @ Vermont (America East) – Vermont has already clinched at least a share of 1st place and can get it outright with a win today. UMass Lowell can pull within a game and still be mathematically alive with a win, but even with a win it looks like Vermont is in the driver’s seat
–Lindenwood @ Morehead State (Ohio Valley) – Morehead State can clinch at least a share of 1st place, but they’re in a 3-way tie with Little Rock and UT Martin and both would have to lose for them to get it outright
–Tennessee State @ UT Martin (Ohio Valley) – see above^^^
-Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock (Ohio Valley) – Tennessee Tech needs to win to stay alive, and Little Rock needs to win to keep pace with Morehead State and UT Martin
–Nichols @ McNeese (Southland) – McNeese has already clinched a share of 1st place, and will clinch it outright if they win. If they win out and then lose in the conference tournament then they should at least be on the bubble
-Florida A&M @ Grambling (SWAC) – Grambling has a 1 game lead over Southern with 4 games to go
–Montana State @ Eastern Washington (Big Sky) – Eastern Washington has already clinched 1st place
–Northern Illinois @ Akron (MAC) – Akron can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win, and can clinch it outright if Toledo loses at Buffalo
–Detroit Mercy @ Oakland (Horizon League) – Oakland clinches 1st place outright with a win
–Cornell @ Princeton (Ivy League) – this game has serious 1st place implications in the Ivy League, and depending on how things play out this could be the game that decides it
–Harvard @ Yale (Ivy league) – it’s a rivalry game, and it’s a game Yale needs to win in order to keep pace with Cornell and Princeton for 1st place
–Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston State (Conference USA) – Sam Houston is in a tie with Louisiana Tech with 2 games to go
–Stephen F Austin @ Grand Canyon (WAC) – GCU is in a tie with Tarlton State for 1st place with two games to go and needs to hold on in this one to keep pace
–Long Beach State @ UC Irvine (Big West) – The Black and Blue Rivalry!!!! UC Irvine has a 1 game lead over UC San Diego with three games to go, and can get a step closer toward clinching if they can beat their rivals at home tonight
