Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For our latest UNDER THE RADAR Video Podcast, along with our UTR CONFERENCE WATCH where we indicate who’s on pace to wrap up 1st place, home court advantage, or who’s in danger of being eliminated from qualifying for their conference tournaments – CLICK HERE

-We have one potential elimination from the HoopsHD Survival Board tonight — Cal Poly will be eliminated with a loss tonight at Fullerton combines with a Bakersfield win at Long Beach.

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Duke blasted Miami FL on the road 84-55. Miami was one of my preseason picks to make the Final Four. I’m starting to think that I may not have been correct in that.

-Illinois fell at Penn State in one of the crazier finishes of the night. The Illini struggled throughout the game, but appeared to be in control when they held a 7pt lead with less than 1:20 to play. They missed several freethrows, which kept Penn State in it, and then they fouled Penn State as they were shooting a 3 with just 4 seconds left. When the dust cleared, Penn State had pulled the 90-89 upset and the fans stormed the court. As Chad Sherwood said, it was one of the most energetic crowds we’d ever seen that was supporting a team with a losing record!

-Florida led Alabama at Alabama for most of the game, but after being seemingly ice cold for at least 30 minutes of play, Bama hit a couple of 3s, the crowd got into it, and they were able to come back and force overtime. Florida had a chance to win at the end of regulation (as did Alabama), but couldn’t score on their last possession. Then the Tide got control in the OT and pulled off the 98-93 win. It’s not a bad loss for the Gators by any means, but a win would have really boosted their resume and shot them up the seedline.

-We figured Dayton might struggle yesterday. Well, they did. In fact they lost yesterday at George Mason 71-67. Dayton is obviously safely in the field barring some sort of a historic collapse, but I don’t think they have any real shot at a protected seed anymore.

-Kentucky at LSU was another crazy finish. Kentucky was in control for most of the first half, but LSU came out strong out of the locker room, got the lead and it was close the rest of the way. Kentucky hit a shot with 12 secs to go to give themselves a 1pt lead, and then made a great defensive play blocking what would have been a game winning shot for LSU. The problem is they blocked it right into the hands of Jordan Wright, who found Tyrell Ward wide open for a game winning layup, and LSU pulled off the 75-74 upset. Kentucky had been playing so well that it was a game you were really expecting them to win even though it was on the road, and it may be a bit of a setback because LSU is nowhere near the field, but overall they are still in much better shape than they were a week ago. The video of the last play may be the most tweeted video in history, BTW.

-Colorado State vs New Mexico was yet another Mountain West game between two solid tournament teams that came down to the wire. New Mexico held a lead for most of the second half, but Colorado State hung in and actually took a lead in the final ten seconds. A layup and foul on New Mexico’s last possession helped them escape with a 68-66 win. This would have been a really big road win for Colorado State that would have helped their seeding. It’s not a bad loss, but it was a missed opportunity to really strengthen their resume.

-Samford had to make some big plays in the final minute of their game against Furman to get the 74-72 win. They are one step closer to clinching 1st place in the SoCon, and their hopes of landing inside the bubble are still barely flickering.

-Providence, who is squarely on the bubble, got a much needed 79-75 road win at Xavier. Any road win in a conference like this goes a long way toward getting a team on the right side of the cut line.

-Nebraska, who had been awful on the road and who needed road wins on their resume more than anything else, got a big 85-70 road win at Indiana last night. It may not seem like much on the surface, but it’s still a very big win for a team that needed to do something on the road. It’s just their second true road win of the season.

.

HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATE (CLICK HERE to view the Whole Board):

-CAL POLY AT CAL STATE FULLERTON (Big West). Cal Poly will be mathematically eliminated with a loss tonight and a Cal State Bakersfield win at Long Beach State

.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-RUTGERS AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Rutgers has been playing better and getting closer to the bubble. A win tonight would really put them on the map, but that’s easier said than done. Purdue is squarely on the #1 line despite losing their last game at Ohio State, and it’s just not easy to beat #1 seed caliber teams on the road.

-SMU AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (American). FAU continues to be a wildly inconsistent team, sometimes even within the same game. They fell behind by 25 in their last game at South Florida, but came back and almost won it. They’re at home, and they’re facing an SMU team that they should beat, but with FAU you just never know and with SMU, if they were to get a win like this, then suddenly they are looking like a team that could make the field.

-APPALACHIAN STATE AT OLD DOMINION (Sun Belt). App State will likely be on the bubble if they win out, but anything short of that won’t be enough, and even winning out won’t guarantee them a spot in the field.

-OHIO STATE AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). Minney keeps inching closer and closer to the bubble and needs to hold serve tonight.

-GRAND CANYON AT TARLETON STATE (WAC). This is perhaps GCU’s toughest remaining game. They should still be able to win it, despite it being on the road against a fairly good Tarleton team, and if they do they they are running down hill. If they win out through the end of the regular season they should be in the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in the conference tournament.

-MICHIGAN AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Northwestern is solidly in our projected field right now, and they will remain there so long as they can continue to hold serve in games like this.

-GONZAGA AT PACIFIC (West Coast). The Zags are right on the bubble and should be able to make the field if they win out through the regular season. If they lose a game like this then they’re really in trouble.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). These are the top two teams in the conference. Both are in the rankings and both are solidly in our field with Arizona looking like a potential #1 seed and Wazzu looking to really improve their resume with one of the bigger singular wins any team will manage all year. Washington State won the first meeting, but beating Arizona at Arizona is an entirely different level.

-UC SANTA BARBARA AT UC IRVINE (Big West) (Gouch0-Eater Cup). It’s the Gouch-Eater Cup!!!! One of our new favorite made up rivalries!!! UC Irvine is the 1st place team in the Big West and can get one step closer to clinching the title with a win tonight.

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-UConn, after blowing Marquette into the sun this past weekend, went on the road and sort of got blown into the sun themselves at Creighton. The Bluejays got a huge 85-66 win, and it was their first ever win over a #1 ranked team. It’s hard to win on the road. Ranked teams lose on the road to unranked teams all the time. Protected seeds lose on the road all the time. Even #1 seeds lose on the road to other top 25 teams and other protected seeds. The result isn’t exactly history changing like many were making it out to be. We’ve seen this for the last thirty years. And, I don’t think it sets UConn back all that much. I still think they’re on solid pace to end up as a #1 seed.

-Tennessee really had to sweat out Missouri last night, but held on to win 72-67. Now THIS is a road loss that WOULD have been surprising had Mizzou pulled it off.

-Baylor battled with BYU, but couldn’t quite get it done on the road as the Cougars picked up a 78-71 win, that should help their resume out a little bit. It would have been a really good win for Baylor, but I don’t think the loss is all that much of a setback.

-We thought Saint Mary’s might get a battle from San Francisco last night, and they absolutely did, but they also held on to win 70-66 to remain unbeaten in conference play and remain in position to go into the NCAA Tournament on the first ballot.

-San Diego State battled at Utah State, but couldn’t get it done on the road as they fell 68-63. It’s a nice win for Utah State, and while it would have been.a VERY nice win for San Diego State, I don’t think it sets them back that much. They still seem to me like they’re in the 4-5 seed range.

-Butler needed to win last night…and didn’t. They fell at Villanova 72-62. As someone that has been championing Butler for a while, I’m starting to realize that while they’ve done a lot, it doesn’t look like they’ve done quite enough to make the field, especially now that they’re sort of in crunch time and have lost four of their last five.

-Michigan State, who we were also praising, perhaps gave us a reason to stop yesterday. They lost at home to Iowa. It’s not good to lose home games to teams that are not in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa is 16-11 overall with some pretty good wins, so a path does exist for them to make it, and they have managed wins against Wisconsin and Michigan State in their last two games, but they’ve still got a ton of work to do just to get the committee to seriously look at them.

-Texas A&M is on the bubble. When you’re on the bubble, it’s not good to lose at home to teams that are not good teams. That’s exactly what TAMU did yesterday. They fell at home to Arkansas 78-71. That’s a pretty big ‘OUCH!!’

-Pittsburgh, who I was starting to believe in a little bit, of course goes on the road to Wake Forest and loses 91-58. Anyways…

-Wisconsin did finally get a win, but it was at home against a Maryland team that isn’t all that good, and they BAREY won!! The final score was 74-70. There is something wrong at Wisconsin right now!

.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-ILLINOIS AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). Illinois has won five of their last six and appears to be on pace to earn a protected seed. They should be able to add another road win to their resume tonight.

-DUKE AT MIAMI FL (ACC). Duke has won seven of their last eight and has been on a bit of a rampage. Miami FL is perhaps one of the bigger disappointments this year. A team that clearly looked like a top 25 caliber team coming into the year will likely miss the NCAA Tournament entirely. This is definitely a winnable road game for the Blue Devils.

-FLORIDA AT ALABAMA (SEC). Florida has cracked the top 25 and continues to climb our seedlist. They have a chance to REALLY make a jump today if they can find a way to win at Alabama. That’s far easier said than done. Alabama is looking like they’re on pace to earn a protected seed and they will not be easy to beat on their floor.

-DAYTON AT GEORGE MASON (Atlantic 10). Dayton has cruised through their schedule for most of the season, and while this is a game that they should win, they may need to do a little more than simply cruise in order to win it. GMU has had a decent season and they’re a very respectable 11-2 at home.

-CLEMSON AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). Clemson looked like they could end up as a protected seed, but their last loss at home to NC State sort of changed the complexion of that. They should be able to win this one on the road, but they need to do more than just show up and go through the motions. Georgia Tech has proven they can beat really good teams on their floor.

-PROVIDENCE AT XAVIER (Big East). Providence is inside our bubble, but barely, which makes every game they play seem extremely pivotal. This one is no different. If they can win on the road at Xavier, their resume will get a much needed lift. Xavier is on our board, but not in our field, and needs a strong finish just to get back into the picture.

-NEBRASKA AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Nebraska has some really good wins this year, but in true road games they’ve been terrible. They have just one true road win and if they don’t get a couple more the committee may not select them. That’s what makes this such a hugely important game. Beating Indiana may not seem like that big of a deal on the surface, but Nebraska NEEDS this road win!

-KENTUCKY AT LSU (SEC). Kentucky is coming off one of the more amazing performances of the entire season with their road win at Auburn. It’s never easy to win on the road, even against a team like LSU that’s nowhere near the bubble, but it’s still a game that Kentucky should be able to win.

-OLE MISS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). It’s a rivalry game between two teams who I think still have quite a bit of work to do, and who could really use this win tonight. It’s important both on and off paper.

-COLORADO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). Both teams look to be solidly in the field, but both have opportunities to improve their resumes between now and the end, and tonight is one of those opportunities. It’s not easy at all to win at New Mexico, so this win would look great on Colorado State’s resume if they’re able to pull it off.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

–Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati (Big 12) – Cincinnati is outside the bubble and needs to at least hold serve at home in games like this in order to stay within reach of it

–Saint John’s @ Georgetown (Big East) – Saint John’s is probably toast, but if they lose this game there will be no “probably” about it

–James Madison @ Marshall (Sun Belt) – JMU can improve to 25-3 and pick up another road win, and that’s at least got to give the committee a reason to really look at them

–Furman @ Samford (SoCon) – Samford needs to bounce back from their somewhat surprising loss at Mercer over the weekend. They have a two game lead in the conference standings with four games to go, and can clinch a 1st place finish if they win and UNCG loses to Western Carolina

–South Florida at UTSA (American) – South Florida needs to win out to get any sort of a serious look. They are the outright first place team and will remain there so long as they continue to win

–Charlotte @ Memphis (American) – Charlotte is nowhere near the bubble, but they are a game ahead of FAU in the standings and are just one game behind South Florida. Memphis is nowhere near the bubble and nowhere near the top of the standings

–DePaul @ Marquette (Big East) – I got nothin’ to say…

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Colgate clinched a 1st place finish in the Patriot League last night with their 67-62 win at Lafayette. They are the first team to clinch a 1st place spot in their conference, and they will have home court advantage throughout the Patriot League Tournament.

-Houston jumped out to an early lead against Iowa State, and after that Iowa State was able to get their offense going they actually made some runs to keep themselves in it, but at no point did it feel like Houston wasn’t in control. It was a solid showing by the Cyclones in one of the toughest road environments in all of college basketball, but Houston held on 73-65.

-Virginia Tech scored 75 points on a pretty good defensive Virginia team! And Virginia scored…well…less than that! WAAAY less than that!! The Hoos have a few kinks to work out.

.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-BUTLER AT VILLANOVA (Big East). This is a super bubblicious game between Butler, who is squarely on it, and Villanova, who needs to win some games just to get on it. You get the sense that not only is it a pivotal game, but whoever wins it will still have some work to do.

-TENNESSEE AT MISSOURI (SEC). Tennessee is a protected seed and Missouri is terrible. This should be an easy win for the Vols even though they are on the road.

-SYRACUSE AT NC STATE (ACC). Neither team is inside our bubble, and both will need very strong finishes in order to get there. Syracuse does have a few good wins and can pick up another one on the road today.

-IOWA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Iowa is coming off a huge win against Wisconsin, but is still very far away from getting inside the bubble. If they win today, though, they will start to get some people’s attention. Winning at Michigan State far easier said than done. The Spartans are 8-2 in their last ten games, and while they were a bit sluggish before that stretch they are starting to look like the Michigan State team we thought we’d see in the preseason.

-ARKANSAS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). TAMU is right on the bubble. A home loss to a team that’s nowhere near the bubble would be very damaging. Uncle Buzz and CO. need to be able to hold serve tonight.

-CONNECTICUT AT CREIGHTON (Big East). UConn is the unanimous #1 team and they’ve looked as good on the court as any team has looked all year long. Tonight they’re on the road against a Creighton team that’s fighting for a protected seed, and has the chance to pick up a huge win that will really boost their resume despite the fact that it’s a home game.

-BAYLOR AT BYU (Big 12). BYU is still in the rankings, but they are coming off a loss to Oklahoma State and there are questions as to how good the Cougars actually are. One thing we do know is that they are much better at home than on the road, and this will not be an easy road game at all for Baylor to win.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UTAH STATE (Mountain West). San Diego State was selected as a top 16 team by the committee this past Saturday, and they’ve got a very tough road test against one of the better teams in the conference. If they can get this win, I think they’ll show that they absolutely deserve a protected seed (at least for now). Utah State is coming off a rather decisive road loss to Colorado State and will be looking to bounce back.

-TCU AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). These are two solid NCAA Tournament caliber teams that are going in on the first ballot who have a chance to improve their tournament resumes with a win tonight.

-PITTSBURGH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). We don’t have either team in our field, but we do have them both on our bubble, and Pitt in particular is worth looking at. They’ve won seven of their last eight, and they’ve got wins at NC State, at Virginia, and at Duke in that stretch. If they can pick up another road win tonight then that’s a pretty impressive stretch run!!

-MARYLAND AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Wisky needs to win this one. They’ve lost five of their last six, and four of those losses came to teams that are outside the bubble. They’re at home against a team that isn’t likely to make the tournament. They need to win this game.

-SAN JOSE STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). Boise State has slid down the seedlist somewhat, but this should be a virtual buy game for them tonight, which can help them start to bounce back.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Saint Mary’s is the last unbeaten team in conference play, and they should be able to keep that up against the Dons tonight. It’s a rivalry game, and San Francisco is a good team at 21-6 overall and who may be able to get the attention of the committee with a road win like this, but SMC should still be able to hold serve at home.

-WYOMING AT NEVADA (Mountain West). We have Nevada close to the bubble, but inside of it. They should remain there so long as they can hold serve tonight.