NEWS AND NOTES:
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-I kept waiting for Purdue to run away from Indiana last night, but it never happened. In fact on one of their final possessions Indiana actually had the chance to get the lead and possibly win the game. The final score was 81-76, but this one came down to the wire.
-Akron ran away from Kent State 85-71 in a game that didn’t even feel as close as the final score. The Zips are now 9-0 in MAC play and 16-5 overall. I’m starting to think they should be in the discussions with teams like Drake and UC Irvine. They may be good enough to win out and play their way inside the bubble.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-FLORIDA AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Neither team is in any danger at all of not ending up as a protected seed, so it’s still more of a showcase game and a chance at the kind of win that can land a team on a #1 line than it is a high stakes game with a huge sense of urgency. Having said that, Tennessee has lost three of their last four and is coming off a home loss to Kentucky. They also really got their noses bloodied in the first meeting between these two teams, so chances are they’ll want to win this one for their pride. The Gators have won three in a row and are looking for a high signature road win.
-PITTSBURGH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). In short, both teams are right on the bubble and this one is extremely important. Wake is coming off a decisive road loss to Louisville and while they’ve looked good in their games against teams outside the bubble, they’ve come up short in most of their opportunities to build up their resume. They need this one today. Pitt is coming off a home win against North Carolina, which was big, but this one is actually bigger and would help them out more because it’s a road game.
-MISSOURI AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Both teams are ranked in the top 20 and deservedly so. Mizzou is having a good year, but they still only have one true road win, so a win today would make their resume look even better, and perhaps put them in the hunt for a protected seed. Mississippi State also has a really strong profile, but they’ve lost four of their last six so this game is a good chance for them to get some of that momentum back.
-ARIZONA AT ARIZONA STATE (Big 12). It’s a rivalry game, and it’s a stakes game, so it’s important both on and off paper. Arizona keeps winning games and keeps climbing the seedlist. Arizona State is a fringe bubble team that could really use a win like this to help stabilize their profile.
-AUBURN AT OLE MISS (SEC). Auburn continues to string together wins against one of the toughest schedules that any team has ever played. They’re on the road again to face another ranked team in an atmosphere that should be totally bonkers. Ole Miss is safely in the field, but this would be a huge win to add to their resume if they can pull off the upset today.
-VANDERBILT AT OKLAHOMA (SEC). This is another game between two teams that appear to be inside the bubble for now, but who also need to stabilize their profiles and get wins when they can because most of the conference schedule is brutal. Both teams should be coming in with a sense of urgency.
-KANSAS AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Baylor has dealt with injuries and while they are inside the bubble, they could really use a really big win like this to help cement their place inside of it. Kansas looks like a sure protected seed and they are certainly good enough to win this one on the road.
-BYU AT UCF (Big 12). BYU has suddenly gone on a bit of a hot streak winning four of their last five, but they still have a lot of work to do. One thing they need to do is build up more road wins, so this is a big game for the Cougars. UCF is right on the bubble. While they’ve lost three of their last four, the losses were to Houston, Iowa State, and Kansas, and they nearly pulled upsets in two of those games. They really need to hold serve at home in this one to help make sure they land on the right side of the cut line.
-TEXAS TECH AT HOUSTON (Big 12). Texas Tech has won seven out of eight and their resume keeps getting stronger and stronger. Having said that, this is a huge buzz saw that they’re up against today. Houston is among the best teams in the country and they’ve showed that in their last two games, which were on the road against good teams. They should be able to win this one at home and keep that streak going.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT DUKE (ACC). This wouldn’t even be highlighted if it wasn’t for the rivalry. Duke is on pace to earn a #1 seed, and North Carolina is outside the bubble and needs a big win to get them on the right side of it. The two schools are also only eight miles apart!! And the two have never met in an NCAA Tournament game prior to the Final Four!!
-UCONN AT MARQUETTE (Big East). UConn has been dealing with some key injuries and hasn’t been quite the same, but is sitll very good. They are also about to start a really tough strech in their schedule, which will be tough, but it will also give them some chances at some really big wins. Marquette is looking like they could end up as high as a 2 seed, so if UConn could somehow win this game it would shoot them back up the rankings and back up our seedlist.
-ARKANSAS AT KENTUCKY (SEC). On paper, this game isn’t that spectacular. Kentucky is a solid protected seed who may even have an outside shot of ending up on the #1 line. They’re at home taking on an Arkansas team that is outside the bubble and needs to string together some wins between now and the end just to get into the conversation. But, there is also that whole angle of who Arkansas’s current coach is and where he formerly coached, so we’ll go ahead and highlight this one.
-NEW MEXICO AT UTAH STATE (Mountain West). This is one of the more compelling games of the day. Both are inside the bubble and barring a collapse both should make the field. Having said that, both teams have limited opportunities at big wins between now and the end and tonight is one of those big opportunities for both teams.
-GONZAGA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). It feels as though Gonzaga has underperformed this year, but if they can go on the road and win this one it will make their resume look a whole lot better and chance a lot of people’s opinions about them. Saint Mary’s is having a great year and if they can win out, which some think they are good enough to do, they could end up as a protected seed. This is also a big rivalry and is always fun to watch.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
–Providence @ Saint John’s (Big East) – The Johnnies are on an absolute roll and should be able to continue that at home today
-Creighton @ Villanova (Big East) – Creighton is coming off a nice win against Xavier. They’ve now won six in a row and can pick up their 4th true road win of the season today
–Clemson @ NC State (ACC) – people probably aren’t paying enough attention to Clemson. They’re 17-4 on the year, and while they’ll likely be tested today, it’s the kind of road game they can certainly win
-Kansas State @ Iowa State (Big 12) – Iowa State should be able to hold serve in this one without too much trouble
-Wisconsin @ Northwestern (Big Ten) – Something Wisky needs to build up their resume is road wins, and this should be a winnable road game against a decent (but not great) Northwestern team
-Drake @ Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley) – a win for Drake would be their 20th of the year and it would keep them positioned to land inside the bubble
-Army @ American (Patriot League) – this game won’t impact the bubble, but it could impact 1st place in the Patriot League and home court advantage throughout the conference tournament. If Army can finish first, then WOW!
-Michigan @ Rutgers (Big Ten) – Michigan has been a little schizophrenic this season, but they’re a strong team and they should be able to pick this one up and add another road win to their resume
-Louisville @ Georgia Tech (ACC) – Louisville is on a roll and this should be another winnable road game for the Cardinals
-Georgia @ Alabama (SEC) – Alabama is one of the best teams in the country and has one of the most impresive resumes in the country. A win for Georgia would be huge and would add a lot of stability to their resume, but it’s also a very tall order
-Richmond @ VCU (Atlantic 10) – VCU may have an outside shot at getting selected if they can win out
-UC Davis @ UC Irvine (Big West) – UC Irvine can/will land inside the bubble if they win out
-Michigan State @ USC (Big Ten) – Michigan State’s winning streak continues, and while this one won’t be a cakewalk, it is certainly one they can (and should) win
-Stanford @ SMU (ACC) – I suppose both teams still have a shot at landing inside the bubble, but neither are inside of it now and both need to win this one today if they want to make that happen
-Texas @ LSU (SEC) – Texas nearly pulled off a huge upset win at Ole Miss in their last game, but came up just short. It’s never easy to win on the road, but this is one that they should get
-Wyoming @ San Diego State (Mountain West) – this should be a “hold-serve-game” for San Diego State, especially since they are at home
-Texas A&M @ South Carolina (SEC) – TAMU is having a strong year, but they could use a few more road wins, and this is one they should be able to get
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – January 31, 2025
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly Hoops HD Staff Bracket. This is NOT a forecast of what the field will be come March, but merely a checkpoint as to what teams have accomplished at this point.
And here is the bracket below:
First Four Out: Arizona State, Nebraska, Xavier, Wake Forest
Worth A Look: BYU, SMU, North Texas, UC-San Diego, Bradley, George Mason, Indiana
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– Auburn and Duke are entrenched in the top 2 seeds right now, but Alabama still has a potential path to get even higher. Iowa State had a tough loss at Arizona on Monday, and Alabama is coming off of a win at Mississippi State earlier this week. Duke might have to potentially run the table in the ACC to remain on the 1-line if top-tier teams in the SEC continue to beat top-notch competition within the conference.
– Maryland has gone from a team that was potentially near the cut line to a team that is now fighting for a Top-4 seed. Wins over UCLA, Wisconsin along with road wins at Illinois and Indiana are helping immensely.
– Connecticut has been leaking oil ever since the Liam McNeeley injury, but he should be back in the lineup shortly for the Huskies. Woe to whatever #1 seed draws them in the 2nd round if a seed like this holds up for the Huskies. (And imagine a road to the Final Four for Duke potentially going through UConn, Maryland AND North Carolina)
– While there is a concerted effort by the Selection Committee to keep teams close to Dayton after their First Four games, the presence of Ohio State in a First Four is really problematic with three B1G teams on the 6-line. I do not foresee the committee bumping the OSU/Carolina winner down a seedline just to keep them close to home.
– There are a few other potential home court disadvantages that altered a few matchups: I kept Yale out of the Providence subregion and I also had to keep Cleveland State out of Cleveland against Tennessee. (Keep in mind that the MAC (not Cleveland State) is the host school this year.) Morehead State is also another team that was not potentially placed in Lexington given that they’re only about 60 miles away – it wouldn’t have prevented them from playing a team like Louisville or Tennessee, but Auburn/Alabama might be a bridge too far.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’m a little surprised that there isn’t more love for Clemson. I know their profile doesn’t top out that high, but the way they’ve been playing seems to indicate they’d be a few lines higher than an 8 seed.
-UC Irvine on the 12 line is probably where the real committee would have them, but I actually like them a little more than that. I would have them around the 10 line or so.
-Saint Mary’s on the 9 line is interesting. I think they’re a lot better than that, but also get that their profile doesn’t show it. At least not yet. I think they’ll move up quite a bit between now and March.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
-I agree with Stalica’s protected seeds, but I think there is a strong case to move Houston up to the 2 line (they are 9-0 in Big 12 play) and maybe Iowa State down there as well. The Florida Gators would be my fourth #1 seed as of today — but given the way the SEC is stacked, that may change in less than 24 hours.
-I had championed a solid seed for West Virginia earlier in the year, but I am no longer on that bandwagon. The Mountaineers have lost 3 straight. including games to Arizona State and Kansas State. This team is sinking fast, down to only 7-7 against the top 3 tiers and 5-7 against the top 2. They may deserve to be in the 7/10 game, but should probably be the 10 seed.
-Clemson, on the other hand, I believe to be way under-seeded by Stalica. The Tigers are 17-4 overall and 11-4 against the top three tiers. They really do not have any bad losses, and their win over Kentucky is looking better and better by the day. I would have them several seed lines higher.
-I agree with Griggs (begrudgingly) that St Mary’s should be seeded higher. There may not be any GREAT wins on their profile, but this team looks like one of the top 20, and maybe even one of the top 16, teams in the nation when I watch them play.
-North Carolina does not deserve to be in the field right now. Several teams that Stalica left out simply have better profiles, including Arizona State, Wake Forest, BYU, and (I would even argue) North Texas. That entire list is a coin flip in my mind, and I would probably choose Arizona State today, but I do not even believe the Tar Heels are even among the top four teams out right now. They have one win against a tournament team and 9 losses overall. 9-9 against the top three tiers and only 5-9 against the top two just does not cut it for me.
-Way down at the bottom of the bracket, I do not think the Central Connecticut should be going to Dayton. The Blue Devils have a handful of bad losses, but their wins at UMass and at St. Joe’s are better than several teams that Stalica ranked above them.
-All in all, I think John did a solid job with this bracket, and I did have to stretch a bit to find stuff to disagree with — but this wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed!!!