The Hoops HD Report (Feb 19th)

Posted on February 19, 2024 by David Griggs

We start off by taking a quick look at the Selection Committee’s Top 16, and comparing them to our Mock Committee’s last bracket. The two were pretty close, so we can’t say we have any major objections! After that we look at Jon Teitel’s latest bracket and discuss Wisconsin’s chances at staying as a protected seed despite the losses, and South Florida’s chances of getting inside the bubble.

After that, we run through all the major conferences and discuss how South Florida is now red hot in the American, how UConn may have put on the single most impressive performance with their blowout loss against a good Marquette team. Out in the Pac 12, Washington State has cracked the rankings for the first time since 2008 and Arizona is looking more and more like a solid #1 seed. The Big 12 is the strongest conference from top to bottom with as many as five teams who have chances at a protected seed. Kentucky had a huge win at Auburn and has completely turned things around after being in a bit of a tailspin before that. We discuss all that, and more!

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Going for the Gold: HoopsHD interviews Team USA AmeriCup player Will Davis II

Posted on February 19, 2024 by Jon Teitel

Even though the Olympics will not tip-off until July there are still basketball players who are fighting for a gold medal starting in February. The USA National Team will face a trio of nearby nations (Bahamas/Cuba/Puerto Rico) in FIBA Men’s AmeriCup Qualifying later this month. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Team USA AmeriCup player Will Davis II about making the NCAA tourney in 2015 and winning a bronze medal in 2022.

You began your career at Sacramento High School as a 5’9” freshman but by the end of your sophomore year you were 6’5”: how did that growth spurt change your life (if at all)? Coming into high school I did not have a lot of experience playing basketball. I got cut in 7th and 8th grade and did not make any team until my freshman year. The growth spurt helped me out from a basketball standpoint but my knees were constantly hurting and it was a big adjustment. I was a late-bloomer and grew into my body as time went on.

What made you choose UC-Irvine for college? The head coach of the AmeriCup qualifying team is Jerome Allen: his alma mater (Penn) was 1 of the schools that recruited me out of high school. However, I wanted to come back to the West Coast so that my family could attend most of my games.

As a freshman you set the school record for BLK in a season with 55 and as a sophomore you were named conference DPOY: what is the secret to playing great defense? I always had good timing when it came to shot-blocking and was young/athletic. I did not like people scoring on me so I just brought that mentality to the court.

In 2015 you were named 1st-team All-Big West: what did it mean to you to receive such an outstanding honor? It was a great honor to receive during my senior year. I felt like I should have earned that honor as a junior but I only made honorable mention all-conference so I came back with a bit of vengeance as a senior.

In the 2015 Big West tourney title game you had 10 PTS/10 REB in a 9-PT win over Hawaii en route to being named tourney MVP: how big a deal was it for Irvine to win its 1st conference championship and get its 1st-ever NCAA tourney bid? It was amazing! Another reason I chose Irvine was because I wanted a school where I could make an impact. It made me set a goal to get an NCAA tourney bid before I left. We won the conference regular season title during my junior year but did not win the conference tourney. There was so much buzz throughout Orange County wherever we went during my senior year.

In the 2015 NCAA tourney you scored 14 PTS in a 2-PT loss to Louisville: how close did you come to pulling off the upset? We did not go into the game as underdogs: we wanted to advance to the next round. We were almost overprepared but our coach told us to calm down and let the game come to us. We were right there until the very end and just made a couple of mistakes that Louisville capitalized on: Coach Rick Pitino knows what to do in those situations.

You have spent much of the past decade playing pro basketball in this country and other countries: what is the biggest difference between basketball in the US vs. basketball overseas? In the SU it is a very fast-paced game where teams have more possessions. Overseas there is more of a focus on defense and everyone on the team is fundamentally sound so there are fewer turnovers. They pick you up for 94 feet and the paint is packed because there is no 3 seconds. The refs also let more things go overseas so you can be more physical.

In 2022 you played for team USA at the FIBA AmeriCup in Brazil: what did it mean to you to represent your country, and what did it mean to you to win a bronze medal? It was such an honor. I had played with them before and they brought in more people to training camp this time so you had to earn your spot on the roster. To be chosen and then make the roster was a great feeling. We wanted to win the gold medal but I was told the USA often loses a lot of bronze medal games: they are often the hardest games to win if you only care about winning a gold. It is something that I will have for life.

Last November you signed with the G League Ignite, a team that has several players who might become 1st round picks this summer: which of your teammates has impressed you the most (Matas Buzelis/Ron Holland/Tyler Smith/other)? They have all impressed me. The top-2 guys I knew were Matas/Ron so to see how skilled they are at such a young age is a great sight to see. Tyler was not on the radar at 1st but is athletic/tall/can shoot/loves to work. Another young guy coming back next year is Dink Pate who is just 17 years old. He is growing very fast and is now running the show as the PG. It reminds of when I was a college freshman and not knowing what to expect…but I did not have to go up against grown men like they do!

Last week you were named to the roster for the February 2024 USA AmeriCup Qualifying Team: how is the team looking so far, and how excited are you to head to Cuba this week? The team is looking good so far. We have some NBA experience and some guys who have played overseas. Everyone is buying into the situation and Jerome is definitely a “players coach” so everyone is listening to him. He knows how to relate to us because he used to play himself.

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Selection Monday!! Hoops HD Staff Bracket – DAVID DORMAN (Feb 19th)

Posted on February 19, 2024 by David Griggs

Below is David Dorman’s personal bracket projections. It is a checkpoint of current merit, and it is not an attempt to guess the real committee, but rather what the field would look like if the season ended today and he was a committee of one.

Below the bracket are some of his comments…

COMMENTS FROM DAVID DORMAN:

-We had movement at the top of my bracket this week as UConn climbed up to the number 1 overall seed. Purdue moves down 1 spot to the second overall seed, while Houston stays at three and Arizona fourth overall. 

-My last 4 teams in this week’s bracket are:

Gonzaga
Butler
Providence
Utah

-Seeding the 6 seeds through the 11 seeds was very difficult for me this week. There is not much separating this section of the bracket. One big win or a tough loss can send these teams up or down the bracket very quickly. 

-Moving up this week was Kentucky after a huge win at Auburn. They were sliding down my bracket the two previous weeks after 3 home losses but this win at Auburn really impressed me. Remember most champions go through a rough spell at some point in the season. Was this Kentucky’s low point and now they take off?

-Washington State was not in my bracket a month ago but now they sit on the 7 line and safely in the field. Incredible season in the Palouse for Coach Kyle Smith and his Cougar team. Utah gave the PAC 12 a third team in the field but the Utes are far from safe. They escaped last night at UCLA and head to Colorado this week for a huge matchup in Boulder.

-Seton Hall will probably be a controversial selection in my bracket this week, especially on the 11 line. I can’t get past the great wins over UConn, Marquette and road wins at Providence and at Butler. Those wins were more impressive than the rest of the teams right on the cutline. The Pirates should feel far from safe but a strong finish down the stretch should get them in the field.

-Gonzaga was a very tough call for me this week. The win at Rupp nine days ago against Kentucky was enough to get one of the final spots in my bracket. If the Zags lose to anyone in the WCC Conference Tournament besides St. Mary’s, I think they will be on the wrong side of the bubble come selection Sunday. 

-I hope everyone enjoys the final stretch run of the college hoops season. The Conference Tourney’s will be here in a few short weeks.

COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF

From Stalica:

– All but one of the teams listed in Dorman’s Top 16 mirror what the Selection Committee came up with in their interim Top 16 they released on Saturday. It was the right call to replace Wisconsin with Dayton after the Badgers continued their recent stumbles with a loss at Iowa over the weekend.

– Another team that really stumbled last week was South Carolina. They were blown out at Auburn and also suffered a surprising loss at home against LSU. I get that they now have two Tier 3 losses at home, but they have enough good things on their profile (win at Tennessee, win against Kentucky, for example) that dropping them down to the 8 line is pretty excessive. I think they’re about a 6 this week.

– I’m going to need to gargle a can of bleach for agreeing with Griggs, but I can’t justify Mississippi State being as high as a 9 right now. They’re a decent neutral court team, but their lack of true road wins (plus the loss against Southern at home) is too much to ignore in mid to late February. I still think they’re in the field, but they are far from safe.

– Indiana State picked a really bad week to fall off the wagon. A really bad week that included a loss at Southern Illinois and at home against Illinois State. I could have forgiven them for one strike out of those two, but not both. They have to win the auto bid now and frankly I’d have Drake in front of them right now (and certainly not above the bubble).

– We will go into further detail on tonight’s podcast, but we are at a point where we can no longer ignore a major surprise emerging in the American. The South Florida Bulls are literally on a rampage and have now won 11 straight games to take over first place in the conference standings. They have too many warts on their profile to justify an at-large selection, but I absolutely believe they are capable of winning the auto-bid on Selection Sunday and stealing an at-large bid away from a bubble team.

– As far as other Under the Radar conferences go, I admit I thought Morehead was a mortal lock to win the OVC regular season title. The rest of the pack is starting to catch up to them, and depending on whether or not they win at Western Illinois, there’s a chance they could fall as low as fourth place depending on how tiebreakers go in the OVC. I’d rather have Eastern Washington up on the 14 line and Morehead back down on the 15 line this week.

From Chad:

  • Dorman’s bracket would mirror my own choices fairly closely, so I have very few bones to pick. I do think Oklahoma is a few lines too low. The Sooners did go 0-2 this week, but it was against Baylor and Kansas. They have still done enough at the top of their profile for me to have them in the top half of the bracket.
  • I similarly would have Texas a few lines higher. The Big 12 is a complete gauntlet this season, and to have picked up three conference roads wins (TCU, Oklahoma and Cincinnati) is huge in my opinion. I would have the Longhorns close to or on the 7 line.
  • I don’t understand Texas A&M. This team is now 15-10 with *4* Quad 3 losses. That screams NIT to me. I would have the Aggies OUT right now.
  • I have long been a proponent of not putting a team in a Bracket Projection simply for being in first place in its conference. Instead, I prefer projecting the automatic bid winner as the team that I feel is the “best” team in the conference. I think Florida Atlantic is seeded right about where they belong by Dorman and, under my normal procedure, they should be slotted in as the auto bid winner from the American. However, I am willing to make an exception to my own rules. I would have South Florida in the field right now as the auto bid winner out of the American, and probably on the 12 line. I think the odds of an at-large bid are very, very small for the Bulls, but regardless of FAU having a better overall profile, this team is playing better than anyone in the AAC right now. They would likely be the favorites to win the conference tournament if it started tomorrow.
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Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Monday, Feb 19th

Posted on February 19, 2024 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-We have a VERY exciting new feature on the site!! Check out the new Hoops HD DEFCON Game Ratings by CLICKING HERE

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-The biggest shock of the day yesterday was Purdue’s road loss at Ohio State, especially since the Buckeyes were not only nowhere near the NCAA Tournament, but seemingly in complete disarray after firing their coach earlier in the week. I don’t think it knocks Purdue off the #1 line, and as big of a win as it was it does not put Ohio State anywhere near the bubble, but it was a rather surprising result.

-South Florida had a 20+ point lead in the second half against Florida Atlantic, and FAU came all the way back to have a chance to win the game with less than a minute to go, but the Bulls held on. They are now two full games ahead of FAU in the standings and improve to 19-5 overall, but a weak OOC schedule, along with a conference schedule that only has them facing FAU and Memphis one time, has their overall resume still looking kind of flimsy. I do think they look like the best team in the American right now, but their profile is far from the best, and they may need to win the conference tournament in order to make it to the NCAA Tournament.

-Northwestern needed a road win, and got it. It was a 76-72 win at Indiana, which in and of itself doesn’t sound that amazing, but a road win of any kind would have helped strengthen the Wildcats’ profile.

-Memphis went into SMU, and lost 106-79. Memphis is now just 7-6 in the American, and I think it may be past time to not only place them outside the bubble, but to take them off the board entirely. They’re just 3-6 in their last nine games, and while that’s a nosedive even if you play in the Big 12, it’s far worse when you play in the American and do that against AAC caliber opponents that aren’t FAU.

-Seton Hall fell way behind at Saint John’s, and then came all the way back for a 68-62 road win that they desperately needed. This was such a pivotal game for both teams, so where it was a big win for the Hall, it was a damaging loss for the Johnnies. Rick Pitino was rather upset in his press conference, and blasted his players, his facilities, and basically everyone he could think of other than himself.

-Utah, who had spent most of the season pleasing their opponent’s fans whenever they went on the road, picked up a MUCH needed 70-69 road win at UCLA last night. The Bruins are nowhere near the bubble, but they had been playing really well these past few weeks, so it is a game that Utah deserves some credit for winning.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-IU NORTHWEST (nonD1) AT CHICAGO STATE. It is a little sad that this will be Chicago State’s last game of the season. What isn’t sad is that it will also (hopefully) be their last ever game as an independent, and the last game any D1 program has to play as an independent or without ties to a conference with an automatic bid ever again. I am sincerely impressed with the progress this program has made under Gerald Gillion. The circumstances they’ve had to operate within have made it practically impossible to have any sort of success, yet they’ve still managed to improve over time and have some success. One of the big upets of the year in all of college basketball was their win over Northwestern, and it gives them something that the vast majority of D1 teams will not have this year, including some that play in the NCAA Tournament. They have a true road win in quad 1. Next year they will join the Northeast Conference, and I think they can be competitive within that league right away.

-VIRGINIA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). UVA keeps stringing together wins. They still don’t seem to be climbing up very many people’s seedlists, but they’re 20-6 overall, a very impressive 11-4 in ACC play, are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and can improve to 5-4 in true road games tonight if they can knock off their rivals. It won’t be easy. It’s a rivalry game on the road, but aside from their freethrow shooting in their last game, this Hoos team has been looking really good.

-IOWA STATE AT HOUSTON (Big 12). Every Big 12 game seems like a must-watch game. This one features two top ten teams, with Iowa State in position to end up as a protected seed and Houston in position to end up as a #1 seed. A road win for Iowa State tonight would be huge, and probably one of the best singular wins that any team has managed all season, but a loss really won’t set them back at all.

-KANSAS STATE AT TEXAS (Big 12). Texas is solidly in the field and would likely go in on the first ballot if today was Selection Sunday. K State still has some work to do, and these are the kinds of wins they need in order to end up on the right side of the bubble. They’re just 2-5 in true road games, and have lost six of their last seven, so they are going in the wrong direction.

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HoopsHD DEFCON Game Ratings!

Posted on February 19, 2024 by Chad

HoopsHD is proud to announce our all new DEFCON Game Ratings! These ratings tell you which games are most likely to affect a team’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament and/or secure a higher seed in same. They are evaluated in “DEFCON” style, meaning that DEFCON 1 games are the most important for the chosen team, DEFCON 2 are slightly less important but still could potentially make a significant impact, and so forth all the way down to DEFCON 5, which are games that might have a very minimal impact.

The factors evaluated in determining a game’s DEFCON rating include, (a) Are you playing?, (b) Is one of the teams in the game a team that you have played or will play this season?, (c) Is that scheduled opponent a bubble or tournament team (making your game against them more important to your resume)?, (d) Are both you and the team playing on the bubble (making them your direct competition for a bid)?, (e) Is the team playing near you on the S-Curve (as determined by the JNG, making them competition for seeding)?, (f) Is the team playing near you on the S-Curve (in case you both get an auto bid)?, and (g) Is the team playing in your conference and close to you in the conference standings?

To view the DEFCON Ratings for any games being played today, simply select a Team Sheet and scroll down below the main data section. You will then be shown a list of any games on today’s schedule that have DEFCON ratings for the chosen team, which team needs to win to positively affect the chosen team, and time and broadcast information for each game. DEFCON ratings are released daily before 9:00 AM Eastern.

To access our new DEFCON Game Ratings, simply click the “HoopsHD Team Sheets and DEFCON Ratings” tab. As always, your feedback via Twitter (X) is welcome. Just message us @HoopsHD!

Enjoy!

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, February 19th

Posted on February 19, 2024 by John Stalica

North Carolina Central (13-10, 5-3) at Norfolk State (16-9, 6-2) – 9:00 PM ET (ESPNU)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day takes place on ESPN tonight in a potential MEAC Championship preview between the NC Central Eagles and tonight’s host, the Norfolk State Spartans. After a tough loss at NC Central in their first meeting, the Spartans have won six of their last seven games to take a 1-game lead in the MEAC standings over the Eagles, Howard and Morgan State. The Spartans did need overtime to beat South Carolina State in their last game; Jamarii Thomas had 18 points in the 71-67 victory.

Unfortunately for NC Central, the past two games against 2 of the aforementioned league contenders has resulted in losses; the Eagles lost at home against Morgan State 79-72 and at Howard 90-82. Prior to that stretch, they had won nine of their last 10 contests; the biggest win was a 60-58 victory against Norfolk State in the teams’ earlier meeting.

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