Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Wednesday, Feb 14th

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day, which is perhaps the greatest one we’ve ever had –CLICK HERE

I need to say a little more about tonight’s historic game between Detroit and IUPUI. We remember the hostility from 20 years ago between the Pistons and Pacers. For those two teams, that water has gone under the bridge, but the animosity between IUPUI and Detroit is still burning at a fever pitch. It’s Valentines Day, which is highly ironic. A contest filled with such intensity is scheduled to take place on a day where Hallmark tells us all to buy their cards and chocolates because that’s what love is all about! If your Valentines Day plans do not somehow involve the Detroit vs IUPUI game, you are doing something wrong! You are not living your life the way you should be! and your significant other should leave you!!!

Anyway, on to last night’s action, and WOW was there a lot of it!!

-Marquette got a battle from Butler on the road as you would expect, but every time Butler seemed to have the crowd and the momentum with them, Marquette would answer. It was a very impressive 78-72 win, and Marquette is looking more and more like they may end up as a #1 seed.

-North Carolina followed up their near loss at home to Miami FL with an actual 86-79 loss on the road against Syracuse. I still don’t think this gets Syracuse all the way inside the bubble, but it certainly helps. UNC is still in great shape, but their chances of getting a #1 seed have taken a major hit.

-Oklahoma has struggled on the road this year, and last night was no exception as Baylor won rather easily 79-62. There’s no shame in losing at Baylor, but the Sooners were never really in the game.

-Virginia, who had an eight game winning streak and who we were just praising as one of the hottest teams in the country, lost at home to Pitt 74-63. Pitt played an outstanding game, and had they played like that all year we’d be talking about their NCAA Tournament chances. As for the Hoos, it is a setback, but I don’t think it knocks them outside the bubble. Hell, it probably doesn’t even knock them out of the top half of the bracket.

-Kentucky, whose defense had looked so poor in recent weeks that it looked as if they’d have trouble guarding a parked car, had great defensive play and energy last night in a 75-63 win over Ole Miss. Ole Miss is good, but beating them at home in and of itself is no great feat. However, it was more of an eye-test thing than an on paper thing for Kentucky. They just looked good last night.

-Indiana State did NOT look good last night. They were in the rankings for the first time in 45 years, and lost at home to Illinois State 80-67. We at Hoops HD follow all these Under the Radar teams all year long, and we know that a lot of them are better than what people think. Well, to be frank, Illinois State is not a team that’s better than what a lot of people think. They’re actually not good at all. This is a very disappointing showing by the Trees.

-Providence keeps getting notable wins! They keep fighting! And I think they will end up making the field by the end of the year! They had a nice 75-72 win last night against Saint John’s, and while the Johnnies aren’t the best road team it was still a good win for a Friars team that feels like every game they play in is pivotal.

-The Mountain West has been highly entertaining this year. It’s also causing us here on the East Coast to lose sleep a lot of nights. New Mexico, who had been in a bit of a tailspin, got a BIG win on the road against a Nevada team that was coming off two straight big wins and looking really good. New Mexico had a great first half, but Nevada came back and the game came down to the last possession. Nevada had a shot at the buzzer to win it, but it didn’t go down and the Lobos held on for a much needed 83-82 road win.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-MICHIGAN STATE AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). Michigan State needs to win this. Penn State is nowhere near the bubble, and beating them may not seem like a big deal on the surface, but Michigan State has just one true road win and that just flat out isn’t enough. They need to win this game tonight, or they are in serious danger of missing the field.

-MIAMI FL AT CLEMSON (ACC). Miami FL still has a path to the NCAA Tournament, and they did play well in their last game on the road against North Carolina, but the path is getting more steep and more narrow as we get closer and closer to the end. A win tonight for them would be big, and it would be a huge step toward turning things around, but Clemson has been playing at a really high level these past few weeks and could even end up in talks for a protected seed if they keep it up.

-TULSA AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American). South Florida is the 1st place team in the AAC, and they look like they may be good enough to win out, and if they do, the committee may look at them.

-XAVIER AT SETON HALL (Big East). We have both teams outside the bubble, but both still have a path (albeit a difficult one) to play their way back inside the bubble and into the field. Having said that, this game almost feels like an elimination game.

-UMASS AT RICHMOND (Atlantic 10). Richmond is the 1st place team in the Atlantic 1o. They are actually ahead of Dayton and have a win against Dayton, and if they win out they may be getting pretty close to the bubble. Anything short of that and they’ll probably need the auto-bid, though.

-UIC AT BRADLEY (Missouri Valley). Bradley probably still has a shot at reaching the bubble if they win out, which would mean winning at Drake in the final game of the year, but even then their case is flimsy at best.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT AUBURN (SEC). This is probably the biggest matchup of the night. South Carolina, as good as they’ve looked, is still not a protected seed in many brackets. If they are able to win this one tonight, which they may be good enough to do despite it being a road game against an Auburn team that’s also looking like a potential protected seed, how do you not put them on one of the top four lines??

-UCONN AT DEPAUL (Big East). I just don’t think this is the night that DePaul starts to turn things around.

-TENNESSEE AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Tennessee is coming off a somewhat surprising loss at Texas A&M and looking to bounce back. They’re still in the discussion for a #1 seed, but any loss to a non-protected seed, even if it’s on the road, will really hurt. Losing to a team like Arkansas that isn’t likely to make the field will REALLY hurt.

-WESTERN CAROLINA AT SAMFORD (SoCon). I say this every week, but if Samford wins out I think they belong inside the bubble. Hopefully that’s where they’ll be if that happens.

-UTAH STATE AT WYOMING (Mountain West). Utah State is safely inside the bubble and looked fantastic this weekend at Boise State. While Wyoming is nowhere near the field, it’s still not an easy place to go and win. No one gets higher!

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Wednesday, February 14th

IUPUI (6-20, 2-13) at Detroit-Mercy (0-26, 0-15) – 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

The resistible force meets the movable object in this titanic struggle in the Motor City; both IUPUI and Detroit-Mercy come into today ranked #359 and #360 in the NET, respectively. It was only last season when Detroit at least had the intrigue of Antoine Davis making a run at the all-time men’s NCAA scoring record – he would end up just missing Pistol Pete’s record. This season has been historic for all the wrong reasons; the Titans have yet to win a game this season and will only have four more chances should they fall against the woeful IUPUI Jaguars.

IUPUI is only two seasons removed from a season where they finished runner-up for the Centenary Award; this is Hoops HD’s award for worst team in all of Division 1. That team only had 5 healthy players at the end of that season en route to a 3-win season. This year’s team will not win the Centenary Award due to a pair of road wins against Valpo and Purdue-Fort Wayne, but they will still likely be a bottom 5 team in the NET due to simply not being competitive in most of their games this year. This will also be the last season they’ll be branded as IUPUI; next year they will go by the name IU-Indianapolis.

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Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Tuesday, Feb 13th

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Bill Self decided to leave early (he got ejected) last night during Kansas’s game at Texas Tech, and I can’t say I blame him. It wasn’t a good game, and his team was getting blown into the sun. The final score was 79-50. It was yet another very unimpressive road performance by Kansas, who may be really good, but who doesn’t look like a #1 seed, and in my opinion shouldn’t be on either the 1 or the 2 line with just two true road wins and a lot of bad road showings. Having said that, Texas Tech played an outstanding game, so props to them!

-And…that’s really it! It was a quiet night.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-MARQUETTE AT BUTLER (Big East). This is a massive game for the Bulldogs, who have been playing really well lately. They’ve won four out of their last five with a win at Creighton in that stretch and the only loss being on the road to UConn. They’re inside our bubble, but I think that we will all start to value them a lot more if they can add this win to an already pretty impressive profile. As for Marquette, they are looking like a solid protected seed and may even be in play for a #1 seed if they can finish the season strong.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT SYRACUSE (ACC). UNC really had to sweat out Miami FL in their last game, which was a bit of a surprise even though it was a road game, but they were still able to get the win and are still in play for a #1 seed . They’ve got another winnable conference road game tonight.

-MICHIGAN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Illinois continues to play well and continues to climb the seedlist. They should be able to hold serve at home in this one without too much trouble.

-IOWA STATE AT CINCINNATI (Big 12). Iowa State is looking more and more like a solid protected seed as they continue to rack up impressive wins. They are 3-3 on the road, and it won’t be easy to get this one because Cincinnati is right on the bubble and has shown they can play well against strong opponents. Whereas Iowa State is trying to land a protected seed, Cincinnati is just trying to make the field, so this is a very big game for them.

-DUQUESNE AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is coming off a rare loss to VCU and is looking to bounce back. It may be too late for them to earn a protected seed, but they’ll still be well positioned in the field if they win out, which they are good enough to do.

-PITTSBURGH AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Virginia is red hot right now, and while Pitt has shown that they do have a pulse, it’s still a game that Virginia should be able to win at home. Believe it or not the Hoos are just one game back of 1st place in the ACC standings right now.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley). Indiana State barely escaped over the weekend, but we still have them inside our bubble and we believe they will stay there so long as they keep holding serve.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). This game is slightly bubblicious. It’s a game that both teams really need. The Johnnies have been on a bit of a tailspin, and Providence seems like they’ve been straddling the bubble for the entire season. This has a pivotal feel to it for both teams.

-TEXAS A&M AT VANDERBILT (SEC). TAMU is inside our bubble, but isn’t safe enough to where they can afford too many losses to teams that are nowhere near the bubble. Despite this being a road game, it’s one they really can’t afford to lose.

-DRAKE AT EVANSVILLE (Missouri Valley). It’s a long shot for Drake, but they should at least get a serious look from the committee if they’re able to win out.

-LSU AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida is inside the bubble and should stay there so long as they hold serve. This is a home game against a non-tournament team, so it’s one they need to win.

-GEORGETOWN AT CREIGHTON (Big East). This isn’t a buy game for the Bluejays, but it might as well be. They need to hold serve in this one.

-OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). The Badgers are in a huge tailspin right now with four striaght losses. They are falling down the seedlist and need to pull themselves out of it. This is a winnable home game, and while it won’t do much for their profile if they win it, it will at least stop it from continuing to digress.

-OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Baylor is solidly in the field and is still in play for a protected seed. Oklahoma is coming off a feel-good win against rival Oklahoma State, but while they got the win it was a struggle at home against a non-tournament caliber team. They’ve got a really tough test tonight. A win could REALLY boost the Sooners’ resume, but it won’t be easy.

-OLE MISS AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is has lost three straight at home and the grumblings are starting to get louder and louder. They need this win for their mental health as much as anything else. Ole Miss is right on the bubble, and this is a huge opportunity for them to help them land on the right side of it.

-UCF AT BYU (Big 12). BYU is in the rankings, and relatively safely in the field right now barring a complete plane crash between now and the end. They should be able to hold serve in this one against a UCF team that’s on the outside looking in, but that has shown us at times they can play at a high level, and who we’ll need to look at more closely if they can pull of a few wins like this.

-COLORADO STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). Every game in the Mountain West seems to be a showcase this year (regardless of what our colleague Joby Fortson thinks!), and this is yet another big game between two teams that are looking to build up their resumes and climb the seedlist. The standings are logjammed and every game has a pivotal feel to it. Colorado State has won four straight, and San Diego State is trying to bounce back after an overtime loss to Nevada.

-NEW MEXICO AT NEVADA (Mountain West). These two teams are going in opposite directions. Nevada has won three in a row, and the last two of those were HUGE. New Mexico has gone from looking like the best team in the league to one that will now struggle just to get inside the field, and they will likely struggle on the road tonight.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Tuesday, February 13th

Drake (20-5, 11-3) at Evansville (15-10, 6-8) – 8:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to Evansville, Indiana for a matchup between the Drake Bulldogs and the Evansville Purple Aces. With Indiana State in the Top 25 and now on the radar, we now follow Drake to see if they can remain in the hunt for the regular season crown in the Missouri Valley Conference. In the first meeting between both teams, Drake smashed Evansville 97-48 back in Des Moines. Darnell Brodie had 18 points in only 20 minutes of action in that game.

Evansville had lost seven of eight games wrapped around the change of calendar from 2023 to 2024, but the Aces did run off a brief 4-game winning streak against Illinois State, UIC and Bradley at home along with a road win at Valpo. That streak was interrupted in their last outing with a 73-70 loss at Murray State at the buzzer.

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The Hoops HD Report (Feb 12th)

We begin tonight with a new feature! We look at Jon Teitel’s most recent Bracket Projections and ask the expert some questions about who is still in play for a #1 seed, which of the top Under the Radar teams still have a chance to land inside the bubble, and which teams have the best chance of moving up in the seedlist between now and the end.

After that, we run through the ten power and multi-bid conferences and recap a really busy week of college hoops. Gonzaga really needed a big win, and got it at Kentucky this past weekend. The Big East has teams like Butler and Providence that are trying to cement a spot inside the bubble, and Marquette and UConn who are still in contention for a #1 seed. Arizona had a huge week with wins at Colorado and at Utah. Out in the Big 12, it continues to be strong from top to bottom and we’ve got several huge games coming up this week. Clemson and Virginia are making a lot of noise in the ACC, South Carolina continues to impress in the SEC, and Wisconsin has started to slide down in the Big Ten. We discuss all that, and more!

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Staff Bracket – February 12, 2024

It was Chad’s turn to do the Staff Bracket this week, and below is his current field through all game of Sunday, February 11. This is how he believes the field currently should stand as of this date. Below the bracket are Chad’s notes on the field and comments and reactions to it from other members of the HoopsHD Staff.

CHAD’S NOTES:

  • The top three teams in the field seem to be almost locked in at this point; however, the fourth one seed is a battle between five or six teams. I am going with Arizona, a team with seven Quad 1 wins, 6 of which were away from home. I understand that there are a couple of head-scratching losses, but the profile is just looking stronger right now than the other top contenders.
  • Two weeks ago, Wisconsin was in play for a 1 seed. Today, the Badgers are barely a top 4 seed and have, in my opinion, dropped below conference-mate Illinois in the bracket. Four straight losses, two of which were to teams not anywhere near the bracket (Michigan and Rutgers) will do that. Plus, the 22-point losing margin against the Scarlet Knights was . . . well . . . flat out BAD.
  • Clemson is flying back up my seed list and barely missed the 4 line. That’s what winning at North Carolina and following it up with a solid road win at Syracuse will do.
  • Utah fell a ton this week after back-to-back home losses. The Utes played great in their home loss to Arizona, but didn’t bother showing up against a pretty weak Arizona State team. Utah is not a lock to make the field by any means after this week.
  • Ole Miss also fell following a pair of losses this week. Losing to Auburn and at South Carolina is no crime, but the Rebels only have three wins against my field, and none against a team in the top half of it Their non-conference Strength of Schedule in the 300’s doesn’t help either.
  • Gonzaga is back in the field as an at-large team. That is what winning at Kentucky can do for a team without much in terms of bad losses. However, the Zags have no margin for error and probably cannot afford another loss until the WCC finals if they want an at-large bid. This includes having to win at St. Mary’s to end the regular season, because I think it will be very hard for this team to get in if they end up going 0-3 against the Gaels.
  • My top four teams out, in order, were Memphis, Providence, Cincinnati and Nevada. Memphis may finally have things back on track after their dominant win Sunday over Tulane and could quickly move right back into the bracket. Also considered were the following: Kansas State, Colorado, Villanova, Wake Forest, UCF, Pittsburgh, Drake, Oregon, Miami, Richmond, Minnesota, James Madison, Princeton and Caitlin Clark.
  • As a final note, I don’t actually look at the matchups until after the bracket is built, and a few great first round matchups were totally coincidence. Kentucky vs Michigan State would be a monster 7-10 game. Maybe just as fun, there are a pair of matchups of coaches against their former schools — Akron’s John Groce getting Illinois and Virginia’s Tony Bennett getting Washington State.

STAFF COMMENTS

COMMENTS FROM STALICA:

– I would listen to arguments that teams like Duke and Clemson are slightly ahead of Alabama and Auburn at this stage. Clemson was in a slump in a weaker ACC, but as Chad noted a win at North Carolina really got them back on track. Also keep in mind that Clemson won at Alabama back in November should those teams get closer together on the seed list.

– Kentucky is plummeting fast on this list. The last time they lost 3 straight home games, Adolph Rupp was still coaching and Rupp Arena hadn’t been built yet. They’ll probably win their next two games (at home against Ole Miss and at Auburn) just to annoy me.

– Joby has to be loving the fact that the Mountain West is starting to cannibalize itself. Yet I couldn’t help but notice that the team benefitting the most from quality wins against the MW is – Saint Mary’s. The Gaels are dominating the WCC and are also benefitting from Gonzaga’s wakeup call at Kentucky.

– I think Seton Hall is safer than St. John’s when it comes to teams near the cut line, but the Pirates didn’t help their cause with a blowout loss at Villanova this weekend. If they lose at home against Xavier, then we can start the discussion about whether or not they should be in. St. John’s is running out of chances for quality wins, and they could very well torpedo their chances if they stumble against their remaining 3 buy game wins against Georgetown/DePaul.

– As far as UTR teams go, Morehead State is likely the first team that will clinch their regular season crown in conference play. Also keep in mind that they will be looking to avenge an early exit in the OVC Tournament last year; don’t expect the Eagles to hit the snooze button should they clinch the #1 seed early on. (Now if only they remember to leave their lights on the rest of the way…)

COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:

-Blind resume, 19-5 on the year, 10-3 in a Power Conference, just one loss outside of quads 1 and 2, winners of 8 straight, including 4 on the road, and a big win at Clemson in that stretch. Does this sound like a #9 seed to you?? Well, Chad seems to think so. To be fair, Virginia has kind of snuck up on everyone, but HOLY CRAP are they on fire right now!! I think EVERYONE is undervaluing them.

-I do like Wazzu, and am happy Chad has them inside his bubble, but I’m not sure I like them so much that I think they belong in the top half of the bracket, and I sure as hell don’t think they’re better than Virginia!

-Mississippi State has finally gotten a road win, and when you look at some of their strong neutral floor wins I am now to a point to where I can stomach them being in the field. An 11 seed actually sounds about right. Now, they still need some more road wins in order to stay there, but for now that seems about right.

-I also really like how Butler is playing. They are another team that a lot of people seem like they’ve been slow to warm up to. They have a big week this week and we’ll see where they land next week.

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