The Hoops HD Report (Feb 12th)

We begin tonight with a new feature! We look at Jon Teitel’s most recent Bracket Projections and ask the expert some questions about who is still in play for a #1 seed, which of the top Under the Radar teams still have a chance to land inside the bubble, and which teams have the best chance of moving up in the seedlist between now and the end.

After that, we run through the ten power and multi-bid conferences and recap a really busy week of college hoops. Gonzaga really needed a big win, and got it at Kentucky this past weekend. The Big East has teams like Butler and Providence that are trying to cement a spot inside the bubble, and Marquette and UConn who are still in contention for a #1 seed. Arizona had a huge week with wins at Colorado and at Utah. Out in the Big 12, it continues to be strong from top to bottom and we’ve got several huge games coming up this week. Clemson and Virginia are making a lot of noise in the ACC, South Carolina continues to impress in the SEC, and Wisconsin has started to slide down in the Big Ten. We discuss all that, and more!

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Staff Bracket – February 12, 2024

It was Chad’s turn to do the Staff Bracket this week, and below is his current field through all game of Sunday, February 11. This is how he believes the field currently should stand as of this date. Below the bracket are Chad’s notes on the field and comments and reactions to it from other members of the HoopsHD Staff.

CHAD’S NOTES:

  • The top three teams in the field seem to be almost locked in at this point; however, the fourth one seed is a battle between five or six teams. I am going with Arizona, a team with seven Quad 1 wins, 6 of which were away from home. I understand that there are a couple of head-scratching losses, but the profile is just looking stronger right now than the other top contenders.
  • Two weeks ago, Wisconsin was in play for a 1 seed. Today, the Badgers are barely a top 4 seed and have, in my opinion, dropped below conference-mate Illinois in the bracket. Four straight losses, two of which were to teams not anywhere near the bracket (Michigan and Rutgers) will do that. Plus, the 22-point losing margin against the Scarlet Knights was . . . well . . . flat out BAD.
  • Clemson is flying back up my seed list and barely missed the 4 line. That’s what winning at North Carolina and following it up with a solid road win at Syracuse will do.
  • Utah fell a ton this week after back-to-back home losses. The Utes played great in their home loss to Arizona, but didn’t bother showing up against a pretty weak Arizona State team. Utah is not a lock to make the field by any means after this week.
  • Ole Miss also fell following a pair of losses this week. Losing to Auburn and at South Carolina is no crime, but the Rebels only have three wins against my field, and none against a team in the top half of it Their non-conference Strength of Schedule in the 300’s doesn’t help either.
  • Gonzaga is back in the field as an at-large team. That is what winning at Kentucky can do for a team without much in terms of bad losses. However, the Zags have no margin for error and probably cannot afford another loss until the WCC finals if they want an at-large bid. This includes having to win at St. Mary’s to end the regular season, because I think it will be very hard for this team to get in if they end up going 0-3 against the Gaels.
  • My top four teams out, in order, were Memphis, Providence, Cincinnati and Nevada. Memphis may finally have things back on track after their dominant win Sunday over Tulane and could quickly move right back into the bracket. Also considered were the following: Kansas State, Colorado, Villanova, Wake Forest, UCF, Pittsburgh, Drake, Oregon, Miami, Richmond, Minnesota, James Madison, Princeton and Caitlin Clark.
  • As a final note, I don’t actually look at the matchups until after the bracket is built, and a few great first round matchups were totally coincidence. Kentucky vs Michigan State would be a monster 7-10 game. Maybe just as fun, there are a pair of matchups of coaches against their former schools — Akron’s John Groce getting Illinois and Virginia’s Tony Bennett getting Washington State.

STAFF COMMENTS

COMMENTS FROM STALICA:

– I would listen to arguments that teams like Duke and Clemson are slightly ahead of Alabama and Auburn at this stage. Clemson was in a slump in a weaker ACC, but as Chad noted a win at North Carolina really got them back on track. Also keep in mind that Clemson won at Alabama back in November should those teams get closer together on the seed list.

– Kentucky is plummeting fast on this list. The last time they lost 3 straight home games, Adolph Rupp was still coaching and Rupp Arena hadn’t been built yet. They’ll probably win their next two games (at home against Ole Miss and at Auburn) just to annoy me.

– Joby has to be loving the fact that the Mountain West is starting to cannibalize itself. Yet I couldn’t help but notice that the team benefitting the most from quality wins against the MW is – Saint Mary’s. The Gaels are dominating the WCC and are also benefitting from Gonzaga’s wakeup call at Kentucky.

– I think Seton Hall is safer than St. John’s when it comes to teams near the cut line, but the Pirates didn’t help their cause with a blowout loss at Villanova this weekend. If they lose at home against Xavier, then we can start the discussion about whether or not they should be in. St. John’s is running out of chances for quality wins, and they could very well torpedo their chances if they stumble against their remaining 3 buy game wins against Georgetown/DePaul.

– As far as UTR teams go, Morehead State is likely the first team that will clinch their regular season crown in conference play. Also keep in mind that they will be looking to avenge an early exit in the OVC Tournament last year; don’t expect the Eagles to hit the snooze button should they clinch the #1 seed early on. (Now if only they remember to leave their lights on the rest of the way…)

COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:

-Blind resume, 19-5 on the year, 10-3 in a Power Conference, just one loss outside of quads 1 and 2, winners of 8 straight, including 4 on the road, and a big win at Clemson in that stretch. Does this sound like a #9 seed to you?? Well, Chad seems to think so. To be fair, Virginia has kind of snuck up on everyone, but HOLY CRAP are they on fire right now!! I think EVERYONE is undervaluing them.

-I do like Wazzu, and am happy Chad has them inside his bubble, but I’m not sure I like them so much that I think they belong in the top half of the bracket, and I sure as hell don’t think they’re better than Virginia!

-Mississippi State has finally gotten a road win, and when you look at some of their strong neutral floor wins I am now to a point to where I can stomach them being in the field. An 11 seed actually sounds about right. Now, they still need some more road wins in order to stay there, but for now that seems about right.

-I also really like how Butler is playing. They are another team that a lot of people seem like they’ve been slow to warm up to. They have a big week this week and we’ll see where they land next week.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, February 12th (and other News, Notes, and Games)

Alabama State (11-12, 6-4) at Southern (14-9, 8-2) – 6:30 PM ET

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day takes us down to Baton Rouge where the Alabama State Hornets pay a visit to the Southern Jaguars. Southern comes into tonight’s game in a first-place tie with Grambling and currently are riding a 5-game winning streak. Brandon Davis had 36 points in the previous 2 games that included wins against Jackson State and Alabama A&M.

Alabama State had started conference play 5-1, but the Hornets have lost three out of their last four games and are now tied for fourth place in the standings with Bethune-Cookman. ASU has beaten everyone below them in the conference standings thus far, but have yet to beat a team above sixth place in the conference standings. D’Ante Bass leads the Hornets with 16 points a game and 8 rebounds a game.

OTHER NEWS, NOTES, AND GAMES (from The Puppet):

-Florida Atlantic needed overtime, and once again showed that they are always capable of playing either up or down to their competition, but they got the road win at Wichita State 95-82.

-Seton Hall, after looking so good throughout most of January, has not looked all that good recently. They’ve now lost four out of six and were blown off the court by Villanova yesterday 80-54.

-Minnesota, who had been on a roll, got out to what appeared to be a comfortable lead early yesterday at Iowa, but the Hawkeyes came back and ended up with a 90-85 win. It knocks Minnesota further back from the bubble.

-WAKE FOREST AT DUKE (ACC). Wake can get themselves in the discussion if they’re able to pull off a win like this. The thing is, games like this are incredibly difficult to win. Duke is still looking like a protected seed and should be able to hold serve at home.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT TCU (Big 12). TCU should be able to hold serve in this one, which is not something that you often say when talking about the Big 12.

-KANSAS AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). Kansas has been solid all season long. The one area where they’ve struggled is in true road games, and they will be tested big time again tonight against a Texas Tech team that is very tough to beat on the road. Texas Tech just snapped a three game losing streak with a win over UCF, and can totally bounce back from that with a win tonight.

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Bracketology 2024: March Madness Predictions (Version 6.0)

For today’s HOOPS HD DAILY RUNDOWN – CLICK HERE

We are only 5 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams that made the 2023 tourney with 65 of his 67 within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 53 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 17th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how he stacks up with other websites (ranked 11th out of 174 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Purdue (Big 10)
1: Connecticut (Big East)
1: Houston (Big 12)
1: Arizona (Pac-12)

2: North Carolina (ACC)
2: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Marquette (Big East)
2: Tennessee (SEC)

3: Iowa State (Big 12)
3: Alabama (SEC)
3: Baylor (Big 12)
3: Duke (ACC)

4: Wisconsin (Big 10)
4: Auburn (SEC)
4: Illinois (Big 10)
4: Creighton (Big East)

5: Dayton (A-10)
5: South Carolina (SEC)
5: BYU (Big 12)
5: San Diego State (MWC)

6: Oklahoma (Big 12)
6: Clemson (ACC)
6: Kentucky (SEC)
6: Colorado State (MWC)

7: Utah State (MWC)
7: FAU (AAC)
7: Texas Tech (Big 12)
7: St. Mary’s (WCC)

8: New Mexico (MWC)
8: TCU (Big 12)
8: Michigan State (Big 10)
8: Texas (Big 12)

9: Utah (Pac-12)
9: Boise State (MWC)
9: Virginia (ACC)
9: Northwestern (Big 10)

10: Texas A&M (SEC)
10: Indiana State (MVC)
10: Nebraska (Big 10)
10: Butler (Big East)

11: Florida (SEC)
11: Mississippi (SEC)
11: Washington State (Pac-12)
11: Mississippi State (SEC)
11: St. John’s (Big East)
11: Gonzaga (WCC)

12: Seton Hall (Big East)
12: Grand Canyon (WAC)
12: McNeese State (Southland)
12: Appalachian State (Sun Belt)

13: UC-Irvine (Big West)
13: Samford (SoCon)
13: Yale (Ivy)
13: Akron (MAC)

14: Louisiana Tech (C-USA)
14: UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
14: Vermont (America East)
14: Morehead State (OVC)

15: High Point (Big South)
15: Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
15: Colgate (Patriot)
15: Quinnipiac (MAAC)

16: Green Bay (Horizon)
16: South Dakota State (Summit)
16: Eastern Kentucky (Atlantic Sun)
16: Norfolk State (MEAC)
16: Southern (SWAC)
16: Merrimack (NEC)

1ST 4 OUT
Cincinnati (Big 12)
Colorado (Pac-12)
Nevada (MWC)
Providence (Big East)

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Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Sunday, Feb 11th

NEWS AND NOTES:

-North Carolina, after suffering a loss earlier in the week to Clemson, nearly made it two in a row as they went on the road to face a Miami FL team that was in a complete tailspin. The Tarheels did manage to escape 75-72, and while they may have fallen off the #1 seedline for now, they are still in position to get it.

-Baylor came up with yet another great effort on the road, but fell just short at Kansas 64-61. Baylor’s last four losses have all been by 4pts or less or in overtime, and all have come against really strong teams. Baylor is still in great shape and could still end up as a protected seed, but we are just a few plays away from saying they should be a #1 seed.

-Tennessee decided to just take the night off, I guess. It’s not easy to win at Texas A&M, and the Aggies deserve a lot of credit for how they played, but it was a little surprising to see them just absolutely run Tennessee off the floor pretty much from start to finish. The final score was 85-69, but the margin felt like more than that.

-Jon Teitel has Arizona on his #1 line, and while he is a legit Arizona fan, this projection is not homerism. They had a great week with road wins at Utah and Colorado, which is very hard to do, and they absolutely blasted Colorado 99-79 last night. Those two wins, along with the rest of their resume, has me thinking they should be a #1 seed right now.

-Michigan State continues to be a home court hero! They knocked off a very good Illinois team 88-80 last night, which certainly helps stabilize a very unstable resume. The one thing they still badly need is road wins, though.

-Creighton had been on a brief 2-game losing streak with losses against Butler (at home) and at Providence, but they returned to their winning ways with a win at Xavier on Saturday. Even with their outside shooting off the mark, Ryan Kalkbrenner abused the Xavier frontcourt on both ends of the floor. Xavier is running out of chances for their at-large NCAA hopes.

-Remember a week or so ago when we all thought Wisconsin may sneak up to the #1 line?? Well, they lost at Rutgers yesterday. Badly. They’ve now dropped four straight games, and two straight to teams that are nowhere near making the field.

-Auburn, who had been on a roll, kind of got their noses bloodied at Florida last night with a 81-65 loss. To be fair, Florida is a good team, and it is not easy to win there, but it was still a bit of a surprise to see them run Auburn over like that. (Note from Stalica – while it was a surprise to Griggs, this was actually Florida’s 15th straight win at home against Auburn.)

-Gonzaga had no quad 1 wins prior to yesterday, and had not played like a top 40 team at any point of the season. Well, yesterday, they did play like a good team and got that big quad 1 win that we were all saying they needed as they knocked off Kentucky 89-85. It’s Kentucky’s third straight home loss, and while all those losses came against strong teams, they’ve gone from looking like a solid protected seed to looking like a team that’s in a tailspin. But, the real story is how big of a win this was for the Zags. It puts them from being pretty far outside the bubble to at worst being squarely on it. Kentucky had not lost 3 straight home games since the late 1960s when Adolph Rupp was still coaching.

-Utah State bounced back from having lost two straight and blew out a pretty good Boise State team 80-61 at home.

-New Mexico, who I was praising a few weeks ago as being the best looking team in the Mountain West, has not looked anything like the best team since I made that statement. Last night they lost at home to a very so-so UNLV team 80-77. The Rebels have now swept New Mexico this season. Ouch.

-Clemson continues to rack up wins, and got a very solid road win at Syracuse yesterday 77-68. Most of their remaining games are winnable, and with a real strong finish they may be in the discussion for a protected seed. Some of their wins are fantastic.

-Appalachian State needed a couple of overtimes, but they were able to hold off Toledo 109-104 and keep their at-large hopes barely flickering.

-It was a battle, but Butler held on for a 75-72 win at home against Providence. This is a Butler team that I think should be getting a lot more love than what they’re getting. I’m not saying they belong in the top half of the bracket, but I think they should at least be rather safely inside the bubble at this point.

-The Ivy League has three pretty good teams in it this year, but it’s looking very much like a one bid league. Cornell @ Yale was a great game yesterday, and Yale came back in the second half to win at home 80-78. Had Cornell won this one and won out they may have gotten a serious look had they lost in the Ivy League Tournament.

-Wake Forest continues to string together wins and climb the ACC standings. They held on to beat NC State at home yesterday 83-79. They’ve now won three in a row and are an impressive 8-4 in ACC play. They are about to be tested in a major way with 2 games coming up against Duke in the next couple of weeks.

-Washington State picked up another big win yesterday as they knocked off Oregon on the road 62-56. That’s two straight road wins for Wazzu, and they are looking more and more like a tournament team as we get closer and closer to March.

-Utah, who we’ve had in our Tournament Projections for most of the season, is looking more and more flimsy as the season goes on. Last night they lost at home to Arizona State 85-77. It’s never good to lose at home to teams that are nowhere near making the field.

-Virginia continues to string together wins, and they got another one on the road yesterday as they held off Florida State 80-76. That’s NINE straight wins for the Hoos, and four in a row on the road, including a win at Clemson in that stretch. I mean…LOOK OUT!!

-Mississippi State FINALLY got their first road win of the season as they blew Missouri off the floor 75-51. I think they need more than just this one, but it was a much needed win and a great step forward for the Bulldogs.

.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT WICHITA STATE (American). FAU has been very schizophrenic this year. They’ve shown a definite ability to play up to their competition, but have also shown an ability to play down to it. They’re coming off a road loss to UAB and are looking to bounce back. It should be a routine win despite the fact that it’s on the road, but with FAU you just never know.

-SETON HALL AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Seton Hall is squarely on the bubble despite some big wins, and needs some more wins like this to strengthen up their resume. Villanova is on the outside looking in and needs a strong finish just to get into the picture.

-PENN STATE AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Northwestern is inside the bubble and should stay there so long as they can hold serve in games like this the rest of the way. Still, Penn State has been a bit of a spoiler in the league and not a team Northwestern can afford to overlook.

-TULANE AT MEMPHIS (American). Memphis is now outside our bubble, and will need a strong finish just to get back to a place to where they can be considered.

-MINNESOTA AT IOWA (Big Ten). Minnesota still has a ton of work to do, but they have won three straight and have some big opportunities coming up, including this game today, which is a winnable road game. They can land inside the bubble if they can finish strong. But frankly, if you’re an Iowa fan, we’ll forgive you if you’re busy watching Caitlin Clark potentially break the all-time NCAA scoring mark instead.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, February 11th

Bowling Green (16-7, 7-4) at Louisiana (15-9, 8-4) – 3:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Believe it or not, there are a few basketball games being played today (I’m hearing there’s a mix of a football game and mega concert tonight), so we go south to Lafayette, Louisiana for the final game of the inaugural MAC-Sun Belt Challenge. The Sun Belt has already won the series with 14 wins to the MAC’s 9.

Bowling Green comes into today’s game tied for 4th in the MAC; the Falcons have won two out of their last three games. Marcus Hill scored 27 points in their 87-73 victory at home against Buffalo. Louisiana is also in fourth place in the Sun Belt; they’re two games back of Appalachian State and Troy and a game behind James Madison. The Rajun’ Cajuns had been on a roll with a 7-game winning streak, but their streak was snapped in a surprising 78-69 loss at Georgia State.

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