Hoops HD

Before you read any further, I want to be sure everyone knows what they are looking at:

-This bracket IS NOT an attempt to guess the real selection committee. I’ve tried to do that before, and am simply not as good at it as many others are. If that’s what you’re lookin for, check out Jon Teitel’s Latest Bracket Here. He is VERY good at it. In fact he’s one of the best in the world at it.

-This IS NOT an attempt to guess the future. It is a checkpoint of where things currently stand, and not a forecast of where I think things will end up.

This bracket is what I think the tournament should look like if the season ended today. Nothing more. And, it is brilliant!! This may not be what the real committee would do, but anything they would do differently is categorically WRONG!!!

-Some of my comments are below, and some of the Hoops HD’s Staff Comments are below that. ANYTHING that they say that disagrees with anything I have done is WRONG!!!

-Autobid winners are indicated by an (*) asterisk

-Any bracketing errors are entirely my fault. I’ve been making a lot of those lately.

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Drake, Villanova, Oregon, Utah, James Madison, Georgia, UCF, Memphis, Colorado, Princeton, Richmond, Xavier, Gonzaga, Bradley, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Miami FL, Wake Forest

COMMENTS FROM THE PUPPET:

-Purdue is my overall #1 seed. Their win at Wisconsin is what had me put them ahead of UConn. I’m still not sure who I think would win if the two were to play each other, but as great as UConn is, I just think that Purdue has lifted more weight at this point in time.

-I have Tennessee ahead of Houston. It was more of Tennessee’s win at Kentucky than it was Houston’s loss at Kansas that made me make the switch, although if Houston had won at Kansas I’d still have them up there.

-I’m big on true road wins. I think winning a game in another team’s arena, and beating A TEAM on the floor that they practice on every week, and in the building where they are familiar with the sight lines, and the rims, and the floor itself, and on top of that where the crowd is supporting them, is something that tournament caliber teams need to be able to do. Mississippi State has yet to do that. Not even once. They’ve had some nice wins on neutral floors, but it’s not the same. Michigan State has only done it once. Nebraska has only done it once. Colorado and Utah have struggled to do it. My bracket reflects that. I favor teams that can win on the road, even in conferences like the WCC, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, and even the Sun Belt, more than P5 teams that haven’t really done it at any point all year long. And it’s not like those power conference teams couldn’t find out of conference games against teams that wanted to host them!! So I really don’t buy any sort of argument about them “not having chances” to pick up OOC road wins.

-I have Texas on the #6 line. When you look at their profile, I don’t understand why they’re not being valued more than they are. They do have a loss at West Virginia, but they’ve won at Cincinnati, at Oklahoma, and at TCU. They have another nice home win against Baylor. They’re 15-7 overall, and are well positioned in a very strong Big 12. So….WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE!!??

OTHER STAFF COMMENTS:

COMMENTS FROM CHAD:

• When Griggs asked me to review and comment on his Bracket, he said I would tear it apart from top to bottom, which is why I am shocked that I had no serious issues with it until I reached the 7 line. However, finding Seton Hall as a 7 seed is almost inexplicable to me. The Pirates have some good wins, but way too many losses (including 5 against teams that probably are not in right now), and having a losing overall record vs Quads 1-2 and vs Quads 1-3. This team should be in the field, but either in the First Four or just barely above it.

• I championed a high seed for Florida on our Thursday night Bracket Rundown show last week and was solidly shot down. The Gators then went and lost at Texas A&M, and somehow Griggs wants them up on the 8 line. This team is now 4-7 vs the top two quads (and only 1-7 in Quad 1 games), and probably belongs in the First Four

• I also don’t get Florida Atlantic down on the 8 line. The Owls are starting to hit their stride and have now won 7 straight. Torvik has then as the #11 team in the nation in his predictive metric. The Owls should be toeing the 4 line, not toeing wearing dark jerseys in round 1. I get that some of their wins have been ugly, but they are WINS.

• I also don’t get Nevada’s inclusion in this field. The Wolf Pack have no road wins against any team even on the board, and only have 1 win over a team even in the field (neutral TCU). Plus their non-conference SOS was pretty bad at 262. I just need to see more from this team before I am wiling to put them in. They have a huge road test at Utah State this week that could change their profile completely.

• I don’t agree with leaving Memphis or Mississippi State out but understand it. Leaving Michigan State out and not even considering the Spartans is another crime. For one thing, this team has more wins against teams in the field than Nevada does! Oh, and they did that with a very strong SOS (#10 overall nationally).

• I will give credit to Griggs for his projected East Region first round: UConn playing the winner of Quinnipiac and CCSU would be pretty awesome. So, in that regards, at least Griggs did 1 thing right.

COMMENTS FROM STALICA:

• There is going to be a long discussion as to whether or not Purdue or UConn should be #1 overall. If you go by what’s strictly on paper, I’d have to give a slight edge to Purdue. But once you watch the two teams play, I’m picking UConn to win head-to-head every time. Ergo I would still have the Huskies as my overall #1 team as of today.

• I don’t get the obsession that Kentucky should continue to be a protected seed. They’re trending in the wrong direction with three losses in their most recent four games. Auburn (a team that Chad and Griggs thumbed their noses at) at least now has a more concrete case at a protected seed now that they checked off a major box with a road win at Ole Miss over the weekend.

• Clemson has similar issues to Seton Hall. Their losses are piling up and are now 2 games under .500 in a very meh ACC this year (and will likely be 3 games under .500 after their annual loss at UNC later this week). I would actually swap Clemson with Butler; the Bulldogs have drastically changed their fortunes for the better now that they have wins at Marquette and at Creighton. I don’t think even UConn is going to get that road double this season.

• I would like the king of road wins to explain why San Diego State is only a 9 seed while Colorado State is still a 6 seed. I realize the Rams have a good neutral-court win against Creighton, but their only true road wins show up in Tier 3 on their team sheet. The Aztecs have their 3 true road wins split among Tiers 1, 2 and 3. And why is UMass-Lowell not on the board? Eight true road wins Puppet!

• I’m fairly certain I’m taking bait from the Puppet by commenting on Cincinnati, but I would have given them one more week before adding them to the field. They’re schizo with a) a horrible noncon SOS, b) a pair of home losses in the Big 12 against middling conference teams yet c) they have 2 road wins at BYU and Texas Tech. They may well be on a trajectory to Dayton, but I’d make a case for them if they can beat either Houston or Iowa State at home. I’d suggest beating both.

• Saint John’s and Memphis both have a knack for making it hard to trust in either team. In the case of the Red Storm, they should (and I emphasize SHOULD) add to the quantity of overall wins since they have a very frontloaded Big East schedule. All four of their games against Georgetown and DePaul are on the back end and they will either take advantage of their opportunities or shoot themselves in the crotch in the process. Memphis was also bleeding between both legs and managed to finally get back in the win column after getting a buzzer beater at home against Wichita State. They’ve got a lot of work to do to get back in our good graces.

• If Gonzaga loses at Kentucky this weekend, they have effectively exhausted all their lifelines to an at-large NCAA bid. They absolutely must win at Saint Mary’s and hope for one more Gaels loss just to get a first-place tie in the WCC again, assuming they don’t step on any more Legos in conference play. And also make sure that the students who threw objects onto the playing floor (at the end of the Saint Mary’s game) are not allowed to attend any more games this season (at the Kennel OR in Vegas or anywhere else, for that matter).