Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Wednesday, Jan 17th

Posted on January 17, 2024 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Purdue, Kansas, and Tennessee are all top ten teams that held serve last night!! Given the way the season has been going, it’s as if it’s noteworthy whenever a highly ranked team takes care of business.

-Baylor lost in overtime at Kansas State in a game that was a bit of a rock fight. K State came in unranked, but is a lot better than what most are probably giving them credit for and it’s certainly not an easy place to go and win. A slight issue for Baylor is that they still have just one true road win on the season, and all their remaining road games are going to be tough in this conference.

-Wisconsin went on the road to Penn State and lost 87-83, and this may have been the one that finally did it! College basketball is officially drunk!!!! I know it’s not easy to go on the road and win, and while we may not often see as many as 8 top 10 teams lose on the road to unranked opponents in a span of three days, we do see top ten teams lose on the road all the time. But this one was crazy. Wisconsin was looking insanely good, and Penn State…well…wasn’t. Of all the big upsets we’ve seen over the last week, this is probably the most surprising.

-New Mexico has played two outstanding back to back games and picked up two really nice wins. They beat a really strong Utah State team 99-86 to improve to 15-3 on the year. Their OOC schedule wasn’t the toughest, and they still haven’t done much on the road, but they should have everyone’s attention now.

-Cincinnati held on to beat 19th ranked TCU in overtime 81-77! And they stormed the court!! Has anyone ever stormed the court after beating TCU before?? That in and of itself should be a sense of pride for the Horned Frogs! All kidding aside, Cincinnati has beaten BYU, nearly beaten Texas, nearly won at Baylor, and beaten TCU. That’s a pretty respectable stretch. They’re playing some pretty good ball right now.

-BYU ended up blowing it open against Iowa State and holding on for an 87-72 win. It is not easy to win on the road at BYU.

-Dayton had to sweat a little bit, and even trailed at the half, but they did win the Arch Baron Cup against Saint Louis 70-65!!! It is the greatest rivalry in all of sports!!

-Samford lost their opener to Purdue, lost their next game at VCU, and then hasn’t lost since. They’ve now won 15 straight and last night picked up a really nice win against a Western Carolina team that was also 14-2 on the year. I don’t know if Samford can play their way all the way inside the bubble, but if they win out I would hope that they would be there! We love Bucky Ball!!!

-Seton Hall keeps rolling along. They added another nice win to their resume that keeps getting better and better and better after knocking off Saint John’s 80-65.

-Clemson is now in a complete tailspin. After being 11-1 and high in the rankings, the Tigers have now lost four of their last five, and the most recent was at home to Georgia Tech 93-90. GA Tech has had some good moments this season, but they’re still not a tournament team, and this is not a good loss for the Tigers.

-The Georgia Bulldogs are trending up. They may not have reached the bubble yet, but at 13-4, 3 true road wins, and a 74-69 win at South Carolina last night, they are positioning themselves to make the field.

-Texas A&M followed up their big win against Kentucky with a 78-77 road loss at Arkansas. Not the best way to celebrate.

-Boise State, who had been on an absolute rampage, last at home to UNLV last night 68-64. Not the best way to celebrate.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-CREIGHTON AT UCONN (Big East). UConn is the new #1 team in the nation, and with all the upsets at the top of the poll they have been the team that has looked the most consistent. Creighton has won four straight and has been playing well, but they’re probably overmatched in this one.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is looking to bounce back from their overtime loss to Texas A&M over the weekend, and they should be able to against a Mississippi State team that is solid, but that still doesn’t have a road win. Winning on the road tonight may be too tall of an order, but they’re going to have to pick up a few before the end of the season if they want to make the field.

-OLE MISS AT LSU (SEC). People questioned Ole Miss’s schedule, but they’ve continued to win even now that conference play has started and this should be another winnable game for them tonight.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT VIRGINIA (ACC). It’s a rivalry game, but this particular edition of it is a little substandard from what we’re used to seeing. Both teams are outside the bubble and need to string together some wins to just to get within reach of it.

-FLORIDA STATE AT MIAMI FL (ACC). Miami FL has driven over some major pot holes, but I still think they have a ton of potential to be a dangerous team. They just need to start stringing together wins, and this should be one they can get tonight against a Florida State team that’s had issues of their own, but that is 4-1 in ACC play.

-NEBRASKA AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). Nebraska is flirting with the bubble and every game has a bit of a pitoval feel to it. They are just 1-3 in true road games, so this would help their resume even though Rutgers is not in the picture right now.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12). Oklahoma has lost two straight, but shouldn’t have too much trouble tonight against a West Virginia team that’s been anemic all year long.

-UCF AT TEXAS (Big 12). Both teams have some decent stuff on their resume, and both picked up nice wins last week with UCF knocking off Kansas and Texas getting the win at Cincinnati, but both still have work to do and both should have a bit of a sense of urgency coming into this one tonight.

-DRAKE AT SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (Missouri Valley). Drake is 14-3 overall and can pick up their third true road win tonight. They’re trying to amass a fortune by collecting change, but their resume is building.

-LOUISVILLE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). This is more or less just a buy game.

-TEXAS TECH AT HOUSTON (Big 12). Houston is coming off of two straight road losses, but they should be able to bounce back tonight against a Texas Tech team that’s having a great year, but probably not so great that they’re able to win at Houston.

-AUBURN AT VANDERBILT (SEC). It’s a winnable road game, and it would be Auburn’s second true road win of the year. They are looking like a potential protected seed, but they can’t afford to dump games like this on the road if that’s where they want to end up.

-MARYLAND AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Northwestern is currently inside our bubble and will remain there so long as they can hold serve at home tonight, which they should be able to do.

-PROVIDENCE AT DEPAUL (Big East). Injuries are catching up to Providence, but this should still be a winnable conference road game for the Friars.

-USC AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). Arizona is coming off a somewhat surprising loss to Washington State on the road, but are back at home tonight and should be able to bounce back and pick up a win against a USC team that’s been kind of disappointing this year.

-NEVADA AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). Big match-up between two of the better teams in the Mountain West. Both are solidly inside the bubble, and both are perhaps in the top half of the bracket, so this is a big resume boosting opportunity for both of these teams.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Wednesday, January 17th

Posted on January 17, 2024 by John Stalica

Bradley (12-5, 4-2) at Southern Illinois (12-5, 4-2) – 8:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to Carbondale, Illinois for a matchup of two leading contenders in the Missouri Valley Conference as the Bradley Braves travel downstate to visit the Southern Illinois Salukis. The Braves started the season with a 6-game winning streak and then ran into a 5-game losing streak that included a pair of losses to begin conference play. The Braves have since won 6 straight again, including wins against the bottom 4 teams in the conference. Duke Deen led Bradley with 26 points in their 77-59 victory against Illinois-Chicago.

Southern Illinois entered the weekend on a 6-game winning streak, but that was interrupted thanks to a 76-58 loss at home against Drake. While they also took advantage of the bottom of the league, SIU did get a 73-63 victory against Belmont during their winning streak. While Barry Hinson is no longer roaming the SIU sidelines, there are rumors that a few bottles of BBQ sauce are still lying around:

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Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Tuesday, Jan 16th

Posted on January 16, 2024 by David Griggs

NEWS, NOTES, AND LINKS:

For the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Ohio State stubbed their toes on the road against Michigan. Michigan is just 7-10 on the season and has rarely even looked like an NIT caliber team. This loss is a setback for the Buckeyes, who have now lost three straight and appear to be in a tailspin.

-Iowa picked up a nice 86-77 win at Minnesota, which is their sixth win in their last seven games. the Hawkeyes seem to have their motor started and will end up inside the bubble if they keep it up.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-FLORIDA AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Tennessee is a high level protected seed and Florida is a team that’s trying to build up their resume. A win at Tennessee would certainly do that, but it’s much easier said than done. The Gators are coming off a big win against Arkansas, though, so they should have some momentum built up.

-SAMFORD AT WESTERN CAROLINA (SoCon). These look to be the two best teams in the SoCon. Both are 15-2, both are unbeaten in conference play, and while it’s a long shot, both have a chance at landing inside the bubble if they can continue to blow through the league. It should be a fun game.

-BUTLER AT XAVIER (Big East). Both these teams have a lot of work to do, especially Xavier, but both also seem to be getting better as the season goes on. Having said that, they could both really use this win today. It has a pivotal feel for both of these teams.

-PURDUE AT INDIANA (Big Ten). From a match-up standpoint Purdue should win this game easily. Indiana struggles offensively from outside the paint, and when you have a player like Zach Edey it’s very difficult to score inside the paint. Having said that, Purdue has struggled on the road in conference play, and it’s a rivalry game.

-TCU AT CINCINNATI (Big 12). This is another match-up between two teams that seem to have improved quite a bit as the season has gone along. Both played really weak OOC schedules, and both need quality wins on their resume. That makes this a big game for both these teams.

-WAKE FOREST AT NC STATE (ACC). Both teams are outside the bubble, but both can reach if if they’re able to keep stringing together wins. A win today would be big for either one of these teams.

-MISSOURI STATE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley). I think there is room for Indiana State inside the bubble, but they need to hold serve in games like this the rest the way, and pretty much come close to winning out in MVC play.

-MISSOURI AT ALABAMA (SEC). Alabama’s strong OOC SOS is really starting to pay off and the Tide keep looking better and better each week of the season. They should be able to hold serve at home in this one.

-BAYLOR AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12). I really like this Baylor team and think they can end up as a protected seed. This will be a very tough road test, though, against a K State team that’s 9-1 at home and that’s won 9 of their last 11 overall. If anything I think K State is being overlooked somewhat.

-SAINT LOUIS AT DAYTON (Atlantic 10). IT IS THE ARCH-BARON CUP!!!! IT IS THE BIGGEST RIVALRY IN ALL OF SPORTS!!! Dayton is cruising through their season and may even be able to end up as a protected seed if they can continue to blow through the A10. They should be able to hold serve at home in this one.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT SETON HALL (Big East). Both teams are really playing well, both have improved as the season has gone along, and both have strung together quality wins for their tournament resumes. This should be a fun one tonight.

-WISCONSIN AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). Wisconsin is looking as good as anyone in the Big Ten, and that includes Purdue. They should be able to pick this one up on the road and remain unbeaten in conference play.

-IOWA STATE AT BYU (Big 12). Both teams are in the rankings, both have good profiles, and both have a shot at a big win tonight. It should be a fun one. Iowa State only has one true road win at this point, and as big as the win was against Houston last week, I would argue that this one would be even bigger because it’s a road game.

-GEORGIA TECH AT CLEMSON (ACC). Clemson needs to pull themselves out of the tailspin that they’ve gone into. This should be a winnable home conference game for the Tigers.

-TEXAS A&M AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Texas A&M is coming off a huge home win against Kentucky, and Arkansas has been a huge disappointment all year long. TAMU should be able to get this one even though it’s a road game.

-AIR FORCE AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West) (Front Range). We at Hoops HD LOVE the Front Range!!! Colorado State has lost two straight and needs to bounce back at home against their Front Range rivals.

-UNLV AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). UNLV has been playing a little better lately, but Boise State has suddenly started to look like a tournament-caliber team. They’re 9-1 in their last ten games, they just picked up a huge road win against Nevada, and they should be able to hold serve in this one.

-UTAH STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). I hadn’t been a big believer in New Mexico despite their big record, but after they totally blew San Diego State into the sun, it’s hard not to take them seriously. They’ve got another big home game tonight against a Utah State team that’s in the rankings and that has just one loss. Despite having such a good record this would still be one of Utah State’s better wins of the season if they’re able to pull it off.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Tuesday, January 16th

Posted on January 16, 2024 by John Stalica

Bowling Green (12-4, 3-1) at Miami University (8-8, 2-2) – 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

There are a lot of options for games in Southwest Ohio tonight with both UC and Xavier hosting games along with the Arch-Baron Cup taking place about 50 miles to the north, and we even have the UTR Game of the Day in Oxford as Bowling Green travels south to face Mother Miami. While BG’s record is a bit padded overall, they have won all the games they should be winning so far both in the MAC and out of conference. They lost at Akron by double digits, but they also have wins at home against Eastern Michigan and OU as well as a road win at Northern Illinois. Marcus Hill averages just over 20 points a game for the Falcons.

The RedHawks have been in perpetual rebuilding mode since Charlie Coles finished his coaching tenure with Miami. They started 0-2 in the MAC with losses against Western Michigan and Toledo, but they have climbed up to the .500 mark with wins against Buffalo and Eastern Michigan. Elan Elmer scored 23 points for Miami in their win against Eastern Michigan.

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The Hoops HD Report (Jan 15th)

Posted on January 15, 2024 by David Griggs

We look back on a week where we had eight top ten teams lose to unranked opponents, including Purdue who fell at Nebraska, Houston to fell twice to TCU and Iowa State, and Tennessee who stumbled at Mississippi State. We discuss those games, and more, as we run through all ten major conferences and look at Colorado’s and Utah’s struggles in the Pac 12, Dayton who keeps surging in the Atlantic 10, FAU’s inconsistency in the American, how Memphis has been in a lot of close games, but won most of them, North Carolina is playing like a #1 seed, Providence and Illinois have struggled since losing key players, and more!

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Sowing the seeds we love: HoopsHD interviews NCAA Selection Committee member/Iowa State Director of Athletics Jamie Pollard

Posted on January 15, 2024 by Jon Teitel

For those of you who simply cannot wait until Selection Sunday to find out what the Selection Committee is thinking, the top-16 teams will be revealed during a sneak preview in February. This is not a crystal ball showing exactly which schools will become protected seeds on March 17th…although all 4 of the #1 seeds from last year’s preview DID end up as #1 seeds last Selection Sunday (Alabama/Houston/Kansas/Purdue). Rather, it served as a peek behind the curtain at what the committee was thinking and what criteria they were using in their analysis of everyone’s body of work. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Selection Committee member Jamie Pollard about Quad 1 wins and his school’s huge upset of Houston last week.

What are the primary/secondary conferences that you are responsible for this year, and how many hours/day will you be working on selection stuff next month? My primary conferences are the Big East, Big Sky, and Missouri Valley. My secondary conferences are the America East, Patriot, and SEC. The amount of work as a committee member clearly picks up as we move closer to February. In the first couple of months of the season (November/December) you are getting to know the teams in your selected conferences as well as you can. However, as we move towards February you have to start knowing a lot more about the other teams in other conferences in order to start making your first rankings of all the teams. In February each committee member will need to have their Top-25 so they can vote on the first reveal of Top-16 at our February meeting. That requires you to have a lot more knowledge of the teams outside of the conferences you are in charge of monitoring. As we move to March, the work expands even further as you now have to have your entire list ranked for the field of 68 in order to vote at our March meetings. Personally, I try to watch and follow games every night so I can even out the workload over the entire week and stay updated on injuries, upcoming games, etc. I find doing a little every night keeps me ahead of the curve. When I get to the last week of January I personally start ranking out the entire field every Sunday. That requires about 4-6 hours every Sunday afternoon to do a deep dive on comparing teams against one another so I can feel good about ranking them from 1-68, plus creating my own personal list of the 10-15 teams just outside the field. As we get closer to March, the number of teams just outside the field tends to decline as teams either play their way in or play their way out of the field. I also have an internal committee of staff that I have assigned to various leagues: I meet with that group every two weeks to have them challenge me on my own internal rankings. I have found having the additional sets of eyes, especially for the conferences I am not directly responsible for, gives me more information and helps me create my own checks and balances to best refine my own ranking list before I begin voting with the rest of the committee.

If a team wants to make the NCAA tourney are they better off scheduling decent teams who they think they can beat, or great teams who they can only hope to upset, or a nice mix of both, or other? I personally think there is not a one-glove-fits-all method to this question. It depends on your conference and also where you think your team fits in that conference during the season in question (experienced team, young team, etc.) For example, in the Big 12, our conference schedule is so difficult that it creates different scheduling philosophies. If you think your team is good enough to win the Big 12 regular season then you are most likely trying to play for a 1-2 seed in the entire field. In order to do that, you need to also play some non-conference games against other 1-2 seed candidates in order to give the committee a clear data point justifying your seed. However, if you think your team is more of a middle of the pack team in the Big 12, you need to understand that you are going to have 8-10 conference losses. As a result, you cannot afford to lose many non-conference games or your overall record will most likely cause you to not get in the field. If I use Iowa State, we start by saying we need to go 9-9 in Big 12 play. Most likely 12 of those 18 games will be Quadrant 1 (Q1) games. We then say we want to be at least 20-11 or at worst 19-12: going 18-13 puts us too much at risk. That means we need to go at least 11-2 in non-conference play. Because we play Iowa every year, plus the Big East Challenge, plus 3 games in a MTE, that means 11-2 is going to be a real challenge. As a result, the other 8 non-conference games really need to be games you are fairly certain you are going to win: probably Q3 or Q4 games.

Committee members can see many different rankings on the official team sheets (such as BPI/KPI/KenPom) in addition to the traditional ones: how have you made use of these advanced metrics, and do you have a favorite 1? I think it is important to note that each ranking has its own merit and no one ranking is the absolute best one. They all measure different things and each committee member has their own personal preference of what metrics they rely on. I personally look at them all, but also have my own calculation which is a combination of several of the different rankings. I tend to personally lean towards efficiencies so I like studying a team’s offensive/defensive efficiencies. However, once you rank the teams (regardless what ranking you used), you then have to compare each team against the teams ranked ahead of and behind them to look for other factors (head-to-head, common opponents, etc.). All the rankings do is simply put the teams in order and then you have to test your order against actual results.

A few years ago the committee implemented a 4-tier system that emphasizes the location of wins/losses: is there a specific quadrant that you are drawn to the most (lots of Quad 1 wins, any Quad 4 losses, other), and why? Again: there is no one glove that fits all. For those teams that get a lot of Q1 opportunities, it is important to me that they show they can beat other Q1 teams and also are competitive in the Q1 games they lose. For teams that do not get a lot of Q1 games, I tend to look at what they did with the games they did have. If they can only get a healthy dose of Q3/Q4 games, did they win those games and how did they win them (i.e., their efficiencies)? I also recognize that on any given night a good team can have an off-night so I personally do not overreact to a bad loss.

How do you measure a team from a high-major conference (who has an entire season to get Q1/Q2 wins) vs. a team from a less-prestigious conference (who only has a couple of months to get such wins, and often not with any home-court advantage), and does that truly help you find the 36 best at-large teams? My answer to the previous question is how I reconcile these two situations. If you cannot get Q1 games then it is similarly important that you not lose the Q4 games you do have.

The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) includes metrics such as net offensive/defensive efficiency: why should anyone care how efficient a team is as long as they are winning games? I see it this way: if you are really efficient then you typically win by a big margin or lose by a small margin. I think efficiency shows when a good team plays a not very good team: do they still show up and play hard and maintain their efficiency or do they not show up and play sloppy? Likewise, when they play good teams, do they stay efficient even when they lose or do they become inefficient and get blown out? Consistency is important to me as I think that shows the mark of a good team regardless of who they play.

What role do injuries (for example, Keiba Keita at Utah/RJ Luis at St. John’s) play on the inclusion/seeding of a team (if any)? The committee definitely tries to take this into consideration. That is why it is important for the committee member assigned to a conference to have a great understanding of not only who was injured and when they were injured, but also what that may do to a team’s seed if we do not account for it. If a player was out for several games that causes a team to be under-seeded, but now the player is back, then their opponent could be playing a team that is much better than what they are seeded. We really try to monitor that and not put either team (both the 1 that dealt with injuries and the 1 playing against the team that had a lot of injuries) at a disadvantage.

I know that you try to spread out teams from the same conference into different regions, but what happens if a league like yours (the Big 12) ends up with 5-7 of the top-16 teams in the nation? When that happens we recognize it is a good problem for that conference to have but also recognize it is still a problem. That is where the pre-established tournament rules of who can play who a second or third time comes into play. Those rules were put into place for good reason.

Last week the Cyclones pulled off a 5-PT home upset of Houston: how nervous were you when the Cougars took a 51-50 lead in the final few minutes after trailing the entire game, and where does it rank among the greatest wins in school history? It was a very fun game to watch because it was two teams that are totally committed to playing great defense. Both teams are ranked in the Top-10 in defensive efficiency so nothing came easy in that game. It also was played in the middle of a major snowstorm so everyone was on a little edge given the weather. We have been blessed to have a lot of great moments in Hilton so it is tough to say that was one of the all-time best…but it was a really great college basketball game. It was also Houston’s first game in Hilton as a member of the Big 12 and we have a lot of respect for their program so it was a very important game for the Big 12 regular season standings.

You have a birthday coming up next month: what are your plans for the big day? My birthday (February 11th) falls on a Sunday this year so I will be spending most of the day (at least 4-6 hours) doing my deep dive on ranking out my top-68 teams. I will be heading to Indy for basketball committee meetings on Monday the 12th as we prepare to vote for the Top-16 reveal so the work I do on that Sunday will be really important.

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