Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

-In a 24 hour period we saw four top 12 teams (Purdue, Marquette, Duke, and Kentucky) all lose to unranked teams. People say they love March because of the upsets. There are actually FEWER upsets in March than there are throughout November and December, and if you think about it, it makes sense. The rankings aren’t quite as precise yet, and teams are having to play on the road. The thing is, each season these upsets are kind of quickly forgotten, and as the season plays out we sort of find out that some of them really weren’t upsets at all. We see this every year. Maybe not four top-12s losing to unranked teams in a 24hr period, but we see upsets like this every year.

We’ve certainly seen it from Kentucky before. Kentucky is a team that ends up going 100mph by the end of the year (albeit not last year), but usually only starts off going 40mph-50mph. They can also be wildly inconsistent throughout November and December. Remember when Gardner Webb beat them? Remember when VMI beat them? Remember when Miami OH almost beat them and Charlie Coles gave the greatest postgame press conference of all time? Remember when Richmond beat them? Remember when Evansville beat them? Actually…you probably DON’T remember that! And, that’s my point! We’ve seen this before!!! You just don’t remember!

-Now, having said that, I WAS surpirsed yesterday. I liked UNC Wilmington coming into the year and thought they had a chance to win the CAA. But, after seeing them get clobbered by Appalachian State and then not beat East Carolina on the road, I kind of wrote them off their chances of becoming a potential bubble team. But yesterday they played out of their minds and beat Kentucky 80-73 at Rupp Arena. They had a 16pt lead in the second half at one point, and Kentucky did come back. The thing is every time Kentucky seemed to have all the momentum and it felt like they had finally gotten control of the game, UNCW had an answer. This was a HUGE win for them, and if they can hold serve the rest of the way, there may be a spot for them inside the bubble after all.

-We don’t see Duke lose true road games before January all that often, but the reason for that is because Duke almost never plays any true road games before January. If you go back and look at Duke’s record in true road games over the years, it isn’t bad at all, but it’s probably not nearly as good as you may guess it to be either. This year, they’re 0-2 in true road games. They lost at Arkansas, which was to be expected, and then followed that up with a 72-68 loss at Georgia Tech yesterday, which wasn’t really expected, but isn’t a jaw dropping surprise either. GA Tech probably isn’t a tournament team, but they are still very tough to beat at home and they now have back-to-back road wins against top 25 teams. To get the attention of the committee, though, teams have to win away from home, and that is something Georgia Tech has yet to do.

-I think Marquette’s loss at Wisconsin will end up not even being considered an upset. That’s not to say that I think Wisconsin is a better team at Marquette, but I do think they’re really good and are certainly capable of beating highly ranked teams on their home court.

-Villanova is almost comical. They are 6-3 on the year and have looked fantastic in their six wins. All three of their losses came in the Big 5 Classic. Yesterday, they lost 57-55 to Drexel. I still think Villanova is a good team and will end up having a big year. I hope they do! I like that they play the other Big 5 schools, and a good way to squash the narrative that so many other schools cling to of “having nothing to gain and everything to lose” from playing the local teams can be proven to be hogwash if Nova can go on and have a big year after losing all three of their games. Villanova has not lost everything. They really haven’t lost much of anything. They can still have a big year, and likely will.

-Illinois went into Rutgers and just blew them off the floor 76-58. It was a VERY impressive road win for the Illini.

-Indiana State won a big game at Bradley 85-77, and actually had a much bigger lead than that throughout most of the game. We were all really impressed with how good Bradley looked out of conference, but the Braves have now lost their first two MVC games, and Indiana State now has our attention as they improve to 2-0 in the league and have a really impressive road win to go along with their 7-1 overall record. FEAR THE TREES!!!

-Also in the Missouri Valley, Drake improved to 7-1 and picked up their second conference win with a pretty impressive 74-57 showing over Missouri State.

-Princeton escaped!! They needed a shot at the buzzer to hold off Furman 70-69 and remain unbeaten on the year.

-Memphis and Ole Miss seesawed back and forth, but in the end Ole Miss got the 80-77 win and remains unbeaten on the year. Ole Miss hasn’t done much away from home, and they’ll eventually need to if they want to show they belong in the NCAAs, but the win at home against a pretty good Memphis team will count for something.

-Utah State continues to look very impressive as they improve to 7-1 on the year. They beat a pretty good UC Irvine team last night 79-69 and if they can keep this up they’re looking like a team that will make quite a bit of noise in the Mountain West and end up back in the NCAA Tournament.

-Western Carolina suffered their first loss of the year in a somewhat surprising 82-77 defeat at Gardner Webb.

-Santa Clara suffered a very surprising road loss at California 84-69. Cal didn’t just win, but won handily and were in control of the entire game. I was expecting the complete inverse to happen.

UMass-Lowell also went down on the road as they fell at Merrimack 74-68. As you may recall, Merrimack nearly pulled off the upset at Georgetown earlier this week, but came up just short. There was an utterly ridiculous technical foul called against Merrimack Head Coach Joe Gallo at a crucial moment late in the game, which played a factor in Georgetown barely escaping. Well, then yesterday, THIS happened to Georgetown….

-TCU improved to 7-0 after a crazy ending on the road at Georgetown. Replay showed that the game winning shot should have never counted because the player had stepped out of bounds. The problem is that officials cannot review an out of bounds play if there was never a whistle to call him out of bounds, so the shot was allowed to count. TCU is now 7-0, but six of those wins were home buy games against the weakest teams you could imagine, and another was on a controversial ending against a Georgetown team that also isn’t all that good, so I’m still not sold on the Horned Frogs.

There was an even crazier ending than that!! It really was the craziest ending to a basketball game I have ever seen, and I’ve seen A LOT of basketball games!!! You know what?? You gotta see it to believe it! Just CLICK HERE AND WATCH. Yale falls to 5-4 on the year, and their chances of being able to land inside the bubble are slipping away. They are still potentially an incredibly dangerous team, but they’ve missed several early season opportunities to build up their resume.

-Two more quick notes from the Atlantic 10: Saint Joseph’s won the Big 5 Classic with their 74-65 win over Temple, and George Mason is now 7-1 on the year after picking up their first road win of the season at Toledo.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-AUBURN AT APPALACHIAN STATE. This isn’t the easiest road game for the Tigers, and if they win it they’ll probably end up getting a little more credit than what most people will realize. This is also the first true road game for Auburn. I like this Tigers team, but they need to show up ready to play today.

-CLEMSON AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). I like both these teams, particularly Clemson who is still unbeaten and has some pretty good wins on their resume. Winning at Pitt won’t be easy, though. They are coming off a home loss to Missouri and will be looking to rebound today.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA STATE. If I’m guessing, I don’t think either team ends up inside the bubble, but both are off to decent starts and both certainly have a path to it if they can string together some wins.

-WICHITA STATE AT MISSOURI. Wichita State is kind of below the sight-line right now, but they’re 7-1 and have shown some potential. Today is by far their biggest test of the year. Missouri is a solid team that we will likely see back in the top 25, and it would be a huge statement win for the Shockers if they’re able to pull this off. It’s definitely the kind of win that would get the attention of the committee.

-CREIGHTON AT NEBRASKA. Creighton looks like a legit top 20 team, and Nebraska looks like a team that can win home buy games. Even though the Huskers are unbeaten, outside of perhaps a win against Duquesne they are also untested. They are at home, and they should be way up for this one, but chances are they’re way overmatched.

-MINNESOTA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). I haven’t been all that big on the Gophers this year, and despite their 5-2 record I’m still really not, but Ohio State is a team I’m pretty big on and if Minney can go on the road and get this win then they’ll definitely have my attention.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES/BUY GAMES:

-Keystone (nond1) @ James Madison
-FGCU @ Cincinnati – Cincinnati can remain unbeaten
-Tulane @ Fordham – Tulane with a chance to get to 6-1 and pick up their first true road win
-TAMU Commerce @ SMU
-Southern @ Mississippi State
-Louisville @ Virginia Tech (ACC) – Louisville looks to be a better team, but they’ve still got a ways to go. This should be a winnable ACC game for the Hokies
-Air Force @ Portland – I’m not all in on AFA yet, but a win in this one gets them to 7-2 on the year, as well as their third true road win
-Pepperdine @ Colorado
-Central Arkansas @ Hawaii – Hawaii can get to 6-1 on the year

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Northwestern got a big night from Boo Buie, and had an amazingly low total of just 3 turnovers, as they held on to upset top ranked Purdue 92-88 in overtime. There were two incredible plays at the end of regulation, one by Boo Buie that appeared to give Northwestern the lead with just seconds to play, and another by Zach Edey who had a great catch and put-in as time expired. It’s the second year in a row that Northwestern has knocked off Purdue at home. As for Purdue, it stings a little bit for now, but won’t sting in the long run. Their overall resume is still amazing and they still have both the opportunities and abilities to end up as a #1 seed come March. As for Northwestern, it goes without saying that this is a massive win for their tournament resume. And while this game was going on…

-The team that probably impressed me the most yesterday was UConn. They didn’t win the game, and they certainly didn’t look all that good in the first few minutes of the game, but a key player was dealing with an injury which impacted his play, and they were on the road at Kansas, and they fell behind early, but despite all that they still managed to play their way back into it, get a lead for part or the second half, and nearly pull of an amazing road win. The Jayhawks held on 69-65, but it was a very impressive showing by UConn.

-Liberty lost their second game in a row as they fell to Charleston in the Field-of-68 Tipoff 76-67. For much of the game the Flames trailed by a lot more than what the final margin ended up being. Liberty is a good team, but they have limited opportunities at notable wins. This event was a big chance to get a couple of them, so it does hurt them that they couldn’t take advantage.

-Indiana is now 6-1 after a rather decisive 65-53 win at home over Maryland. The Hoosiers do appear to be getting better, but Maryland appears to be going nowhere at all.

-South Carolina improved to 7-0 after their 89-67 win over George Washington. None of South Carolina’s wins are necessarily jaw dropping, but they have looked like a good team and they will certainly get their opportunities at the kinds of wins that will impress the committee later in the season.

-Saint John’s picked up their first road win of the year as they knocked off a West Virginia team that will likely limp through the rest of the season 79-73. The Johnnies are now 5-2.

-Boise State held off Saint Mary’s 63-60 to improve to a modest 4-3. Boise State needs to pick up the pace in order to catch up to the rest of the runners in the race, but they are still perhaps good enough to do that and we are still in the early part of the season. As for Saint Mary’s, they have fallen down right out of the starting gate and are still laying on the ground as the rest of the runners are running away from them. They are now just 3-5 on the year.

-San Diego State trailed 57-43 late in the game at UC San Diego, and hadn’t looked good at all, and the place was going crazy for what looked to be a season making win for UCSD. The Aztecs then closed the game on a 20-5 run to pull out the 63-62 game and escape with the road win. What looked like a disaster ended up looking pretty good. San Diego State is now 7-1 on the year, they pick up their first true road win of the season, and hand UCSD their first home loss.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-SYRACUSE AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Syracuse is a quiet 5-2, and while they don’t have that strong of a resume, a win in a game like this could make them look a lot stronger. Virginia is coming off what is arguably their best game of the year against Texas A&M and should have the upper hand at home.

-MARQUETTE AT WISCONSIN. Marquette is one of the few teams so far that has impressed me to the point of thinking they can win it all. They have beaten some highly ranked teams already, and their only loss was a close one to Purdue. Wisconsin is good, and is likely a tournament team, and it’s not easy to win there, and this is a rivalry game, but Marquette is a #1 seed caliber team and should be able to win a game like this.

-FLORIDA STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). North Carolina is coming off a really good win against Tennessee, and while Florida State hasn’t been quite as consistently good as the Tarheels, they at least have a good win against Colorado and could really boost the value of their resume if they’re able to get this one on the road. Having said that, it’s much easier said than done. I’m someone who’s been highly skeptical of North Carolina in recent years, but I really like their team this year.

-INDIANA STATE AT BRADLEY (Missouri Valley). This game actually has a very pivotal feel to it. Bradley looked really strong out of conference, but lost their conference opener to Murray State earlier this week, and will really take a hit of they can’t get it done at home today and lose their second in a row. Indiana State is not a bad team at all. They only have one loss, they won their conference opener in decisive fashion against Southern Illinois, and a win like this would do a lot for their tournament resume.

-MEMPHIS AT OLE MISS. Ole Miss has proven that they can win home buy games, and while they’re unbeaten they really haven’t been challenged let like they will be today. I think this Memphis team is really good. They’re 5-1 with wins over Arkansas, Missouri, and Michigan, all of which were away from home, so they have been tested.

-DUKE AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). This is the conference opener for Duke, and it’s just their second true road game of the year. They appear to be much better than GA Tech, but the Blue Devils have yet to win a true road game and GA Tech managed to beat a pretty good Mississippi State team at home in their last game, so this one could be interesting.

-MICHIGAN AT OREGON. Both teams have the talent and potential to have big years, but neither team has exactly exploded out of the starting gate. This would be a good resume building win at this point in the season for whichever team is able to pull it off.

-UNC WILMINGTON AT KENTUCKY. This is a straight up buy game, and UNCW is coming off a loss at East Carolina after going flat in the second half whereas Kentucky just blew out Miami FL at home, so it could also be a mismatch. Still, this is a UNCW team with some potential, and if they want any shot at all at getting their resume to the point of being able to land inside the bubble, this is their chance for that kind of a win.

-ILLINOIS AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). I think both of these teams are likely tournament. It’s a conference game and a resume-building opportunity for both of them.

-NC STATE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). Both teams have work to do, and this is an important early season league game for both of them.

-MISSOURI STATE AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley). Both teams come into this one at 6-1 and both won their conference opener. There is room in this league for teams to land inside the bubble, and that’s what makes this such an important game for both of them.

-PORTLAND STATE AT WASHINGTON STATE. This is a game that we did not expect to highlight when the season started, but Portland State is off to a great 6-1 start, three of those wins have been on the road, and they’ve REALLY got a chance to get some people’s attention today. Wazzu is comes in at 5-1 and while they haven’t really been tested in a big way, they do have a decisive win against Rhode Island and were competitive against Mississippi State last in their MTE, so they won’t be the easiest team to beat on the road.

-TCU AT GEORGETOWN (Big East-Big 12 Battle). TCU is unbeaten, but all their wins came in home buy games, and their opponents are a combined 2-35 on the year, which is beyond atrocious. Georgetown is not a good team, but they’ve at least one some games at home and will give TCU some semblance of a test.

-CHARLESTON AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Field of 68 Tip Off). Charleston is a team that should do very well in the CAA. FAU is a team that is ranked in the top 15 and should do very well (again) in the NCAA Tournament. It’s a bit of a mismatch.

-COLORADO STATE VS WASHINGTON (Las Vegas Invitational). Washington is off to a decent 4-2 start, but doesn’t have a win anywhere near this caliber on their resume. Colorado State is unbeaten, has multiple impressive wins, and can add yet another notable win to their resume tonight.

-YALE AT VERMONT. I still think of Yale as being really good and having the potential to get inside the bubble. But, they haven’t managed those types of wins yet. This is another tough road game, but it’s the kind of game that an at-large caliber team needs to be able to win.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S VS TEMPLE (Big 5 Classic). Saint Joseph’s has been catapulted onto our radar after their decisive win at Villanova and their near win at Kentucky. Temple is a respectable 4-2, and this would at least be a somewhat notable win away from home for the Hawks if they’re able to pull it off.

-RHODE ISLAND AT PROVIDENCE. This is just a super fun and highly intense rivalry! Rhody comes in at 5-2 and has a decent win over Yale, and Providence is having a really good start to the season despite all of their offseason changes.

-UC IRVINE AT UTAH STATE. UC Irvine had a chance at a notable win earlier this week against Duquesne and came up short, and they have another opportunity tonight. A road win in a game like this could make the difference of whether or not the Eaters need to win the Big West Tournament to make the field. Utah State is off to a really good 6-1 start and likely won’t be easy to beat at home, so it’s a game UCI would get a lot of credit for if they’re able to win it.

-USC VS GONZAGA (Las Vegas Invitational). This should once again be a really fun game. Gonzaga appears to be their normal top-15ish selves, and USC looks really good as well despite the two losses. This is a big resume building opportunity for both these teams.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES/BUY GAMES:

-Notre Dame @ Miami FL (ACC) – Miami is looking to bounce back after being blown out at Kentucky
-Drexel vs Villanova (Big 5 Classic) – Nova has only lost two games this year, and both were in the Big 5 Classic
-Delaware @ Ohio U – this is a really good UTR game. I don’t think either team makes it all the way to the bubble, but it should be a really good game to watch
-Furman @ Princeton – Princeton is 7-0 and continues to look not just like an NCAA Tournament team, but perhaps a top 25 team
-North Alabama @ Kansas State
-Grambling @ Dayton
-Colgate @ Arizona
-Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland (Horizon League) – PFW can get to 8-1 on the year, win their second conference game, and go to 2-1 on the road. As for Oakland, they’re coming off a big road win at Xavier
-Harvard @ Loyola Chicago – Harvard comes in at 6-2 with three true road wins. They can make some noise in the Ivy League this year
-Northwestern State @ Baylor
-Western Carolina @ Gardner Webb – WCU can get to 7-0 and win their 4th true road game
-UMass Lowell @ Merrimack – UMass Lowell one-loss team that we are still keeping an eye on, and Merrimack is coming off a near upset road win at Georgetown
-Santa Clara @ California – this should be a winnable road game for Santa Clara and get them to 8-1 on the year
-George Mason @ Toledo – a win for Mason gets them to 7-1, but this is their first true road game of the season
-Tulsa @ Oral Roberts – a win for Tulsa would be their first true road win of the season, but it would get them to 5-1 overall
-UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon (WAC) a win for GCU gets them to 6-1 overall and 2-0 in the WAC
-LMU @ Nevada – a win for Nevada gets them to 6-0

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For our latest UNDER THE RADAR Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

-Let’s begin with Saint Joseph’s. I was not big on them at all coming into the year and their early loss to TAMU Commerce (a transitional team) did nothing to raise my opinion of them. They went to Kentucky and took the Wildcats to overtime, and while I like how they played in that game, I still attributed it to Kentucky overlooking them than I did anything else. Well, last night they won at Villanova, and won decisively 78-65. Saint Joseph’s is now 1-1 in true road games against teams ranked in the top 20. Their one win was a blowout, and their one loss was in overtime to a Kentucky team that just got through blowing out top ten Miami FL. I now think the Commerce loss was a complete anomaly, and an am now a full believer in this Saint Joe’s team. The issue is that they don’t have any other heavyweights remaining, but last night’s win at Villanova is a huge brick of gold for them. Every remaining game is winnable, and while they only have a few strikes remaining, I still think they’re good enough to play their way solidly inside the bubble come March. They may be the only Atlantic 10 team where that is the case, but if they can dominate the rest of the way and win the majority of the games they’re supposed to win, their resume should be there.

-Arkansas opened up a big second half lead agains Duke, but the Blue Devils came back and actually had it close within the final minute of the game. Arkansas held on to win 80-75 which does as much for their confidence and momentum as it does for their resume. This was Duke’s only out of conference true road game.

-North Carolina blew out Tennessee for about 30 minutes, and led by over 20 for much of the game. The Vols came back late to make the final 100-92 score look way more respectable than most of the game was. I have been hard on the Tarheels, and openly stated that since Roy Williams retired they’d looked lime an NIT team for most of that stretch outside of one month in March in 2022. Having said all that, they’ve looked really good so far this year, and looked exceptionally good last night.

-Virginia is tough to beat when they take control of a game, and that’s what they did last night. They shut Texas A&M down defensively, especially in the second half, and got the 59-47 win, which is probably their most impressive and most confidence building win of the season so far.

-Colorado State didn’t blow out Colorado, but they pretty much had a lead from tip to buzzer before ending up with the 88-83 win. The Rams remain unbeaten, there is a real buzz around this program, and they are for real!

-UC Irvine trailed Duquesne for most of the game, but kept it within reach and were still in it with less than a minute to go. Duquesne did end up with the 66-62 win, and continue to look like one of the better teams (along with Saint Joe’s) from the Atlantic 10. the Eaters fall to 6-2. A win like this on the road would have really helped them, but the loss doesn’t really hurt them. They still have the road win at USC, and if they can dominate the Big West, which I think they’re good enough to do, they can play their way into a position to receive an at-large.

-After a crazy-good start to the season, Evansville lost their first game of the year on the road at Missouri State 90-78 in their conference opener.

-Bradley, who had looked outstanding on the year so far, also lost their conference opener at Murray STate 79-72. Murray State isn’t the easiest place to go and win, but as good as Bradley had looked coming into this game it was still a bit of a surprise that they didn’t get it done.

-Dayton is now a respectable 5-2 on the year after picking up their first true road win over SMU 65-63. Dayton has nothing amazing on their resume just yet, but they have just two losses, one of those was to Houston and the other was on the road at Northwestern, which is hardly bad. They also have wins over LSU and Saint John’s in the Charleston Classic, which is decent, and now they have a win at SMU. That’s not bad! That’s at least giving them a chance to make a run at the bubble if they can keep stringing together wins.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-LIBERTY AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC. This one is going to be a blast. Liberty is unbeaten and has past some pretty nice tests, but playing on the road against a legit top 15 caliber team is a totally different animal. I think both these teams are potentially first ballot caliber teams, and that will especially be true for Liberty if they’re somehow able to get this one on the road. It should be fun!

-TEXAS TECH AT BUTLER (Big East-Big 12 Battle). Both these teams are off to good starts, and both could use this win on their resume. Butler is coming off a win against Boise State in the ESPN Events Invitational, and this would be another notable win for them. Texas Tech is coming off a good lookin win against Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis and this is their first true road game of the year.

-UNC WILMINGTON AT EAST CAROLINA. I highlight this one because I like this UNCW team. They’re 5-1 with two road wins already, and this is yet another winnable road game against a fairly decent (but far form great) East Carolina team. These are the kinds of games UNCW needs to routinely win if they want to make a run at the bubble.

-CREIGHTON AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big East-Big 12 Battle). Oklahoma State has struggled so far this season, and while Creighton has looked really good for the most part they are coming off a blowout loss to Colorado State. This is also their first true road game of the year, so while the Jays should win, it’s hardly an automatic win.

-HAWAII AT UTAH. Hawaii is unbeaten, but is also untested. They will be tested tonight by a Utah team that’s 4-2, but whose early resume could also use some work.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES/BUY GAMES:

-Arkansas Pine Bluff @ Oklahoma
-Texas State @ Texas
-UC Riverside @ UCLA