Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Drexel and La Salle – CLICK HERE

-The busiest day of the entire season is now in the books. On no other day will we see 184 games that involve D1 teams. Most of the games were as chalky as you would expect seeing as how most games involved ranked teams blowing far weaker Under the Radar teams into the sun. But, as is the case every year, there were some very notable surprises.

-James Madison was the preseason Sun Belt favorite, and while I liked the Dukes coming into this season I didn’t think they had a chance in hell at Michigan State last night. If I’m being completely honest, they weren’t even my personal pick to win the Sun Belt this year (Southern Miss was, and I suppose they still could, but JMU is certainly off to a VERY promising start). In watching the game, James Madison had a lead at the half, and I thought to myself that they looked really good, had played really tough defense, and had a hell of a half, but that they’d eventually wear out. Then when they got into foul trouble in the second have I thought Michigan State would finally run away with it. Then, as the game progressed on, it kept looking to me like JMU was FINALLY getting worn down and that Michigan State was about to get control. But, JMU kept making plays on defense and making shots on offense. Even when JMU made a big play to force overtime I thought they were finally out of gas, but then in overtime they got the lead and kept the lead, and made some huge plays. When it was over, James Madison got a MASSIVE win on the road. Assuming Michigan State’s season plays out like we expect, and they don’t routinely go one-for-a-thousand (or whatever it was) from beyond the arc, there are teams that will end up as #1 seeds that aren’t likely to have a singular win as good as this one was. It was HUGE for JMU, and it’s DEFINITELY the kind of win that can land them inside the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament if they’re able to hold serve for the rest of the year.

Wins like this are not common, but they’re not totally unheard of either. Kentucky lost an early season game to Evansville one year when they were ranked #1. Evansville proceeded to sink entirely into the quicksand. Gardner Webb also knocked off a highly ranked Kentucky team one year. And I believe VMI also knocked off a highly ranked Kentucky team in the season opener. Well…on the second thought…maybe it’s rare for it to happen to anyone other than Kentucky!

-Kentucky, by the way, blew a New Mexico State program that is trying to rebuild after a tumultuous year off the court completely into the sun. I don’t want to pick on them and not point out that they won their opener decisively.

-Perhaps the most important game of the day other than JMU’s upset over Michigan State was Akron’s 81-75 win at South Dakota State. This game was on the Summit League app, so very few of you probably saw it, but the reason it’s so important is because we believe both of these teams are potentially good enough to land inside the bubble and make the NCAA Tournament without needing the automatic bid. The fact that Akron didn’t just get the win, but got it on the road against a South Dakota State team that will likely easily win 20+ games and may not lose at home again all season long, is a HUGELY important win for the Zips’s resume. Most bubble teams aren’t likely to have too many (if any) singular wins as good as that. Mikal Dawson for Akron is a top level player! He had 19pts, on the road, against a REALLY GOOD South Dakota State team.

-Princeton, who is coming off of a Sweet Sixteen year, but who also has very few players from that team back, started their season off with a somewhat surprising win over Rutgers 68-61. We like this Rutgers team, and we still think they’ll have a big year. They’ve certainly got plenty of opportunities to offset this loss. It is a bit of a head-scratcher, though. How good is Princeton, and did we overvalue Rutgers?

-Abilene Christian also got a surpirse upset win at Oklahoma State. We weren’t all that big on Oklahoma State as far as being an NCAA Tournament team, but at the same time we weren’t all that big on ACU being a frontrunner in the WAC either, so a great win for them!!

-North Carolina is also no stranger to early season stumbles/upsets, and for about 25-30 minutes they were really sweating out a Radford team that from all accounts they should have been pounding into the pavement, but they finally got control late and picked up the 86-70 win.

-Oregon had a little more trouble with a Georgia team that I didn’t think would be good at all this year. The Ducks won 82-71, and at no point did it ever feel like they were in any real danger of losing, but it wasn’t the complete dump-trucking that I was expecting in this game. I don’t know if that means Georgia is better than I thought, or that Oregon isn’t as good, or both, or neither. It’s early. It could very easily mean neither.

-USC got a nice 82-69 neutral floor win against a Kansas State team that isn’t in the rankings, but who I think will be before the season is over. I really like both of these teams, and it wouldn’t surprise me that if by the end of the year this game ends up being looked at a lot more closely by the committee than what we realize right now.

-The top of the ACC is very strong, but yesterday the bottom of it did not look so good. Notre Dame had to sweat against Niagara, Louisville needed some heroics in the final minute to beat UMBC, and NC State (who we don’t think is at the bottom but who certainly did not look good yesterday) struggled for much of their game against The Citadel.

-Charleston v Iona was a great game. It was on FloHoops so a lot of people may have missed it, but it was two really good UTR teams that have quite a bit of potential this year. While Charleston got the 71-69 win, I was also impressed with how well the Iona Gaels played on the road, especially with all the question marks surrounding them as the Post-Pitino era is getting underway. The game came down to the final seconds.

-Another wild game that took place between two potential dark-horse Under the Radar teams was Bradley at UAB. Neither were picked to blow through their leagues, but both are teams that we at Hoops HD thought might be good this year. Bradly jumped out to a big lead in the first half and appeared to be in complete control. Then halftime came, the two teams switched sides, and UAB came all the way back to force overtime. Bradley ended up holding on for a 73-71 win in one of the more exciting games of the day, and picking up what will probably prove to be a very strong road win given that UAB won’t lose much at home this year. Given how the game played out, maybe it was something about the basket on that end of the court??

-Shout out to McNeese for their 76-65 win over VCU. I said I thought VCU might be good this year. I will now retract that.

Also in the A-10, Fordham, who was last year’s media darling and who I was excited about this year, barely escaped against Wagner 68-64, Dayton had to sweat out SIUE for much of that game, but held on to win, and Duquesne, who was my preseason pick to win the league, barely (and I mean BARELY) escaped against Cleveland State.

-Last, and definitely least, Saint Mary’s, who is good enough to be a protected seed this year, beat some nonD1 team called Stanislaus State 107-28. Anyone who had anything to do with this game being scheduled should be put in jail.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-NORTHERN IOWA AT NORTH TEXAS. This looks like a VERY good Northern Iowa team thsi year that could be a part of a multi-bid Missouri Valley Conference. North Texas is coming off a fantastic season from last year, but the problem is they’re in a complete reset mode. Still, it’s a challenge for UNI to open on the road like this, and it’s a good chance to add a road win to their resume right out of the gate.

-UNC ASHEVILLE AT MICHIGAN. This is a buy game, but I think UNCA is the better team and may even be good enough to not just roll over the Big South, but to make some noise on the national stage. Michigan is dealing with a lot of things that could be hanging over them right now, so this is a winnable road game for UNCA despite them being on the road. It’s also a game they need to win if they feel they’re a team that belongs in the NCAA Tournament without needing the Big South auto-bid.

-AUBURN VS BAYLOR (Sioux Falls SD). I really like this Auburn team, and while I don’t think they’re quite as good as Baylor, I think they’re better than what their preseason rankings indicate. A good way to prove that they are good is to start things off with a neutral win against a very good and very dangerous Baylor team.

-UC IRVINE AT SAN JOSE STATE. It’s an odd game to highlight, but it’s a game between what I feel could be a really good UC Irvine team and a San Jose State team that’s trying to build itself up within the Mountain West. And…IT IS TIM MILES’S SEASON DEBUT!!!

NOTABLE BUY GAMES:

-Florida Gulf Coast @ Indiana
-Stony Brook @ Saint John’s – the Rick Pitino era with the Johnnies begins!
-Mount Saint Mary’s @ Maryland
-Le Moyne @ Georgetown – FREE ADMISSION!
-North Dakota @ Iowa
-Presbyrterian @ Vanderbilt
-Florida A&M @ Creighton
-Purdue Fort Wayne @ DePaul
-Sacramento State.@ Nevada

HAPPY COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON EVERYBODY!!!

If you haven’t seen all of our preseason content, then you haven’t seen quite a bit! CLICK HERE or click our SEASON PREVIEWS 2023-2024 tab up top to check it out.

Regardless of what the write-ups say below, all 362 teams are starting off at zero. They really are. On paper, all of the D1 v D1 games are games between two teams that are in a 362 way tie for first place. We can speculate that some games will mean more than others based on how good we are expecting one or both of the particlar teams to be, but technically speaking no one has played yet.

It’s also important to remember that, when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, there are no “One-Bid Leagues” or “Multi-Bid Leagues” yet. The SWAC, MEAC, and Southland could each end up with 7 teams in the field, and the Big 12 could end up with just one. It’s all based on what happens on the court and not on a preseason assumption, and the Selection Committee will be dialed in on the very first night. They watch and evaluate the entire season. If the Big 12 and Big Ten each end up with six teams in the NCAA Tournament and the Southland ends up with just one, then it will be because of what actually happened on the court.

As far as the start of the season goes, there are 184 games today, and I’ve got to say that about 165 of them are complete piles of crap. I say this every year, but the opening of the college basketball season is a bad opening and it does not serve the sport well. Opening Day for MLB, and the NFL, and even college football are huge days on the general sports calendar and everyone around the country, even people that aren’t really sports fans, knows when it’s the first day of the season for those sports. The opening of the college basketball season takes place without anyone other than the diehard fans (like us) really noticing. And for those of us who do notice, we’ve got over 165 games that even most of us diehard fans won’t want to watch. Monday is a bad night to start the season given Monday Night Football, the vast majority of games are bad games to watch even if you’re a diehard fan, and I really count just ONE game (USC vs Kansas State) that would appeal to fans that aren’t diehard college basketball fans. So…

Opening Night!! Umm…yay? I guess??

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-SPALDING (nonD1) AT IUPUI. This game will almost assuredly end up meaning nothing. It is one of the worst teams in the Horizon playing against a nonD1 opponent. But, the single distinction it has is that it is the first official game to involve a D1 team!

-GEORGIA VS OREGON (Hall of Fame Series, Las Vegas NV). Not much is expected out of Georgia this year, and while there are question marks about Oregon as well they are a team that we think could reach the NCAA Tournament. Starting off with at least a somewhat notable win away from home would be good for either team.

-SAMFORD AT PURDUE – this is a buy game, but Samford is one of the top teams in the SoCon and while they’re overmatched, it’ll still be interesting to see what they can do.

-CLEVELAND STATE AT DUQUESNE. This may seem like an odd game to highlight, but I think Duquesne is a dark horse to win the Atlantic 10. They were actually my preseason pick to win the A10. Cleveland State is a team they should beat, but it’s also a team that can do some damage in the Horizon League this year. On a day where most of the games are absolute garbage, this one is actually decent!

-PRINCETON AT RUTGERS. Princeton lost a lot from last year’s Sweet Sixteen team and they appear to be way overmatched in this one. Rutgers right now feels like a team who’s caliber is outside the bubble, but definitely worth keeping an eye on.

-IONA AT CHARLESTON. These were two standout UTR teams last year. While both are going through rebuilds, especially Iona, both still look good enough to have big years. If CofC wants to make another run at both the top 25 and the bubble this year they need to start winning right away.

-SIUE AT DAYTON. This is another buy game, but it’s between two likely conference frontrunners. SIUE is clearly overmatched as they’ll likely be on the 15 or 16 line if they win the OVC, whereas Dayton will likely be inside the bubble if they win the Atlantic 10, but it’s still a good early season game, especially when compared to most of the rest of today’s schedule.

-LIPSCOMB AT WICHITA STATE. This is a buy game (at least I think), but it’s a buy game where it wouldn’t shock me at all if the road team won. Lipscomb will be one of the better teams in the ASun this year, and Wichita State looks like they’ll struggle for most of the season.

-BOSTON U AT NORTHEASTERN (Bean Pot). Neither team is expected to be good at all this year, but we highlight this because of our love for the Bean Pot!!!! And for all mythical conferences!!!

-BRADLEY AT UAB. I know this is an odd game to highlight, but both teams, especially UAB, look like potential dark horses in their leagues this year, and this could be one of those early season games that’s ignored and/or overlooked at the time, but then turns out to be important to the metrics as the season plays out.

-JAMES MADISON AT MICHIGAN STATE. It’s a buy game, but James Madison at least has a pulse, and while they have very little shot at pulling off a huge upset like this on the road, at least Michigan State scheduled a team that is capable of making some noise in a half-way decent conference to open things up.

-NORTHERN KENTUCKY AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE. This is a winnable road game for what looks to be a very good NKU team this year. I don’t know if they’ll land inside the bubble, but starting off with a road win is certainly a very good first step.

-SEMO AT GRAND CANYON. Not a bad UTR match-up between last year’s OVC Tournament winners and this year’s WAC preseason favorites.

-AKRON AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE. This is one of the spotlight games of the day. Both teams are highly ranked in the UTR Preseason Top Ten, which in and of itself doesn’t mean anything, but they are two teams that we think may be good enough to make a run at the bubble and even land inside of it. That makes this a very important game for both of them, and it should be a fun one to watch.

-EASTERN WASHINGTON AT UTAH. This is a buy game, but Eastern Washington will likely be a standout team in the Big Sky, so it’ll be interesting to see what they can do on the road against Utah.

-USC VS KANSAS STATE (Hall of Fame Series, Las Vegas NV). A rarity for opening night!! Two teams that are likely to land inside the bubble are playing each other!! USC is in the rankings, and while K State isn’t, I think they are being a little undervalued and will be able to exceed expectations. One way to catapult themselves into the national spotlight is to win a neutral floor game against a ranked team.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT COLORADO STATE. This could be a decent game between two teams that might have some potential this year.

-SAM HOUSTON AT PACIFIC. Sam Houston has turned their roster over quite a bit, but they should still be a force in CUSA this year and should be able to get this one on the road.

-IDAHO AT WASHINGTON STATE. Last but not least, it is one of the greatest rivalries in all of college sports!! These two teams are less than eight miles apart!! And, they’ve never met in the NCAA Tournament!! No other rivalry can make that claim!!!

BUY GAMES:

-Saint Joseph’s NY (nonD1) @ Hofstra – Hofstra is a UTR team to keep an eye on
-Northern Arizona @ UConn
-Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee
-NJIT @ Miami FL
-Radford @ North Carolina
-Delaware State @ Penn State
-North Greenville (nonD1) @ Furman
-Malone (nonD1) @ Kent State
-USC Upstate @ South Carolina
-Vassar (nond1) @ Yale
-Winthrop @ Clemson
-The Citadel.@ NC State
-UMBC @ Louisivlle – If Louisville is going to improve they have to at least win their buy games this year
-Niagara @ Notre Dame – The Micah Shrewsberry era begins at ND!
-Columbia @ Providence – The Kim English era begins at Providence!
-Oakland @ Ohio State
-NC A&T @ Pittsburgh
-McNeese @ VCU – McNeese can make some noise in the Southland, but is likely overmatched today
-Missouri State.@ West Virginia
-Tarleton State @ Virginia
-New Hampshire @ Syracuse
-American @ Villanova
-Georgia Southern @ Georgia Tech
-Towson @ Colorado – Colorado is getting a lot of preseason love, and Towson appears to at least be good enough to where we should actually learn something about the Buffs tonight
-Saint Peter’s @ Seton Hall
-NC Central @ Kansas
-UL Monroe @ Houston
-Alcorn State @ Arkansas
-TAMU Commerce @ Texas A&M
-New Mexico State @ Kentucky – New Mexico State’s long rebuilding process will get off to…shall we say…a challenging start
-Incarnate Word @ Texas
-Morehead State @ Alabama – Alabama lost a lot from last year, but is still really good. Morehead State is a likely OVC frontrunner, but is still way overmatched
-Eastern Illinois @ Illinois
-Southern Indiana @ Saint Louis
-Alabama State @ Ole Miss – Chris Beard is back!
-Arkansas Pine Bluff @ Missouri
-Arkansas State @ Wisconsin
-Mississippi Valley State @ LSU
-Central Michigan @ Oklahoma
-Coppin State @ Virginia Tech
-Jackson State @ Memphis
-Elon @ Wake Forest – I really like this Wake team this year
-Robert Morris @ Xavier
-Fairfield @ Boston College
-Loyola MD @ Florida
-Florida International @ UCF
-Green Bay @ Iowa State
-Lindenwood @ Nebraska
-Bethune Cookman @ Minnesota
-Binghamton @ Northwestern
-Northern Illinois @ Marquette
-Dartmouth @ Duke
-Houston Christian @ BYU
-Nicholls @ Tulane – I like this Tulane team this year
-Saint Thomas @ California – It’s a buy game and the Tommies are a transitional school, but this is still a game they can win
-Southern @ TCU
-UIC @ Cincinnati
-Morgan State @ Arizona
-South Dakota Mines (nonD1) @ Utah State
-Texas Southern @ New Mexico
-Stanislaus State (nonD1) @ Saint Mary’s
-Cal State Fullerton @ San Diego State
-Cal State Northridge @ Stanford
-Bellarmine @ Washington – Somehow Washington is receiving votes in the Top 25
-Saint Francis U @ UCLA