NEWS AND NOTES:
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-North Carolina got a win at Florida State yesterday that was probably a better win than what most will give them credit for. They had to come from behind to do it, and Florida State had been playing really well since January and this was just their second ACC loss. UNC is in the hunt for a #1 seed, and it was the kind of game a #1 seed should win, but it was also more than just a routine win on the road.
-Houston blitzed a Kansas State team that was on the bubble and who had been playing really well 74-52. Houston looks as good as anyone in the nation right now.
-Kansas lost their second straight road game as they fell at Iowa State 79-75. Unlike the loss at West Virginia, there is virtually no shame in this one. Iowa State is one of the tougher places in the entire country to win at.
-We knew it was a big week for Auburn with road games at Alabama and at Mississippi State. We knew if they could win both of them it would be a huge statement, and winning one of them would still be pretty good. Well, they lost both of them. They fell 64-58 yesterday to Mississippi State and are still without a quad 1 win.
-Oklahoma, the team that everyone loves but that I really don’t get myself, continues to play in a way that makes me think they’re being overvalued. They lost at home 85-84 to a Texas Tech team that is admittedly good, but not so good that the 11th ranked team in the nation should be losing to them at home. The Sooners are now 2-4 in their last six games, and one of those two wins was at home against West Virginia, which is a virtual buy game level win.
-Duke escaped against Clemson 72-71, and when I say ‘escaped’ this game saw multiple lead changes in the final 30 seconds, and a foul call on Duke’s last possession that led to the game winning freethrows that Clemson will be questioning for the rest of the year. This would have been a huge and perhaps season defining win for the Tigers, but they’re still safely inside the bubble and if anything this game showed they can play against protected-seed-caliber teams on the road.
-TCU got their biggest win of the year, and it took them over three hours to do it! They won 105-102 in triple overtime against a very good Baylor team. Replay and timeouts at the end of the game is something that needs to be reformed. This was an exciting game, and a well played game, and an important game, but it was also a game where the referees must have spent over 30 minutes of combined time at the monitors. This just makes the game less good! For EVERYONE! The players, the coaches, the fans…EVERYONE! People end up changing the station because they don’t want to watch referees watch TV on TV. I’m not saying to get rid of replay, but it DEFINITELY needs to be reformed!
-Dayton’s win streak came to an end as they fell to Richmond 69-64 yesterday. The first half of this game was one of the worst offensive halves I’ve ever seen, but it picked up in the second half. Richmond is on fire. Their resume is a little flimsy and they may need to come close to winning out just to get on the bubble, but they’re unbeaten in conference play and now have a nice win against Dayton on their profile.
-Utah State got a VERY nice road win at Boise State 90-84. As well as Boise has been playing, this was a very tough game to win, and it will look really good on their resume and should help shoot them up the seedlist.
-Colorado State could have really used the road win at Wyoming yesterday, but they fell to their Front Range Rivals 79-96. They’re now just 3-4 in the MWC and the lack of road wins may be becoming an issue.
-Nebraska, who had been playing well and who we actually had inside or bubble on our latest Bracket Rundown show, did not play well yesterday. They were blown off the floor at Maryland 73-51.
-Georgia, who was a team that I liked, was getting blown out at Florida yesterday, but they came charging back to force overtime! Then…Florida escaped with a 102-98 win and the Bulldogs missed out on what would have been a really nice road win for their resume.
-Providence beat a really weak Georgetown team 84-76 in Ed Cooley’s return to Providence. It’s a result that really isn’t worth mentioning at all other than that it was Ed Cooley’s return to Providence.
-Some Under the Radar teams had bad days. Akron, who had been on an absolute rampage, fell at Miami OH 70-68, which may all but eliminate any hopes they had of getting an at-large, and Princeton got their doors absolutely blown off by Cornell. Grand Canyon, High Point, and Samford all received big scares, but all managed to hold on and win in close games.
-In the Sun Belt, Hot! Hot! Hot! Appalachian State beat James Madison for the second time this season. JMU got a lot of credit (and deservedly so) for their early season win at Michigan State. While that win has lost some of its shine, it’s still a good win, and James Madison is still a good team. It’s just that Appalachian State has objectively outperformed them and I think they’ve shown they’re even better. They’re 15-4 overall, and while a couple of those losses are real headscratchers, they also have a win against Auburn to go with the two wins over James Madison. I think they’ve done enough to say they belong on the bubble, and if they can keep playing at this level I’ll be arguing they belong inside of it come March.
-Villanova needed a road win at Butler yesterday. They’re hovering around the bubble, their resume has some holes in it, and their overall record was just 11-8. They did not win at Butler. Butler is now a very respectable 14-7 overall and 5-5 in the Big East, and while they’re still not inside the bubble, they are in a position to reach it if they can just pick up a few more big wins.
-Colorado, who could have really used the road win at Washington State yesterday, lost 78-69. They did get a road win at Washington earlier in the week, but that’s their only one of the season and the lack of road wins are really starting to become an issue for the Buffs.
-Ole Miss picked up what was probably their biggest win of the year as they knocked off Texas A&M on the road 71-68. TAMUh as some good things on their resume, but with their overall record just 12-8. It’s important that they hold serve down the stretch.
-Utah is a terrible road team. They didn’t just lose to Washington last night. They got their doors blown off 98-73. People want to say the Utes are good, but they’re not good when they’re on someone else’s floor, and that’s going to be an issue for the committee.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-XAVIER AT UCONN (Big East). UConn is the top ranked team and will remain there if they can hold serve in this game. We have Xavier outside our bubble, but if they could somehow pull off this upset it would obviously take a huge step toward it and earn themselves one of the single most impressive wins on anyone’s resume. That’s far easier said that done, though.
-PURDUE AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). Purdue has a history of struggling against Rutgers, and it’s on the road, and Purdue hasn’t always played well in true road games, but having said all that it’s still the kind of game the Boilers should roll in.
-NORTH TEXAS AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Aemrican). North Texas has been playing well recently having won seven of their last eight, and FAU always seems to be a crapshoot as to how well they’re going to play. The Owls should hold serve and win this one at home, but that doesn’t mean they will.
-SMU AT WICHITA STATE (American). There may be room for SMU inside the bubble, but they’ll really need to finish strong in order to get there, and that includes getting this win on the road today.
-MEMPHIS AT UAB (American). Memphis has lost their last two games and is in a bit of a tailspin. They’ll likely be challenged on the road again today against a UAB team that got off to a bit of a rough start, but that’s played pretty well for the last five or six weeks and who should be jacked pretty high up for this one.
-NEVADA AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). New Mexico is playing as well as anyone in the MWC right now, and they have been lights out at home. Nevada just snapped a three game losing streak with a big win against Colorado State earlier in the week, but they’ve got one of their toughest remaining games of the season tonight. A win would be huge for their resume.
Bracketology – Staff Bracket (Monday, January 29th)
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly staff bracket for Hoops HD. This is not where we try to guess what the Selection Committee will do – that is what our colleagues like Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller do on a regular basis. Rather, this is who John would have in the field as of today.
First Four Out: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Miami, Virginia
Worth a Look: Wake Forest, SMU, Drake, Michigan State, James Madison
JOHN’S COMMENTS:
The 1-line is starting to take better shape and, from a resume perspective, Purdue gets the edge for #1 overall. As yesterday proved, UConn may well have the highest ceiling of anyone in the country right now.
I am starting to believe in what teams like Texas Tech and Iowa State have been able to accomplish in the Big 12. Baylor and Oklahoma (especially the Sooners) are in a bit of decline right now. Of course, their “reward” is a first-round matchup against Nebraska. In Omaha. Good luck with that.
Memphis might not even be in this field much longer at this rate. Had they lost at home against Vandy back in December, they certainly wouldn’t be.
OTHER COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-This isn’t so much me disagreeing with Stalica as much as it is me disagreeing with virtually everyone. Oklahoma is way overvalued. Now to be fair, John has them lower than most people, and even makes mention in his notes that they are on the decline. John barely has Texas in. Texas has played a tougher strength of schedule, Texas has more road wins, Texas has more quad 1 wins, and on top of all that, Texas won handily AT OKLAHOMA!!! I’m not trying to gush over Texas so much as I am trying to dump on Oklahoma! Texas, by virtually every measurement, is better than Oklahoma, with the exception of perhaps one area. Oklahoma’s losses aren’t quite as bad. Texas lost to UCF and West Virginia (who both also beat Kansas) whereas Oklahoma’s losses were to better teams….like, say…TEXAS!!
-In looking at the top of John’s seedlist, I agree with all of his #1 line, and all but one of his #2 line. I like Marquette a little more, but John has them as #9 overall, so we aren’t exactly all that far apart on them.
-It’s interesting to see that he still has Princeton on the #10 line after they got beat so badly by Cornell over the weekend. I don’t think he’s wrong. In fact I’d probably argue for them to be there. I don’t think the real committee would have them there at this point, though.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
-I will take some exception with John’s top 4 lines. I just do not understand Baylor on the 3 line. The Bears have lost 3 in a row and have only one true road win. That is a 5 or 6 seed profile. I also don’t get Utah State on the 4 line. I would rather San Diego State be there with a way tougher Strength of Schedule. I just think the Aztecs are a better team. By several seed lines.
-My biggest issue is with Auburn. The Tigers have *ZERO* Quad 1 wins and do not have a win away from home against a team that is at-large worthy. They also have a loss to a team that is below the at-large cut line (at App State). I simply do not understand why everyone loves this team. Is it because they lose close games? You don’t get a protected seed for losing games!
-Iowa State is under-seeded on the 6 line. The Cyclones now have wins over Houston and Kansas and do not have a bad loss. I could see this team in the protected seed range instead of some of John’s other choices.
-Seton Hall was one of the hottest teams in the nation and climbing everyone’s seed lists. They now have a 3 game losing streak including a home loss to Providence. I think the Hall is still in the field, but at 13-8 overall and with a sub-.500 record against Quads 1-3, just barely in. I would have them in Dayton.
-Seton Hall’s conference mate, Villanova, is even worse shape. In addition to their three bad losses in the Big Five Challenge, the Wildcats have now lost 5 of their last 6 games — and the one win was at home over DePaul! I would have Villanova OUT right now.
-Nevada does not belong in right now either. The Wolf Pack are fading fast in the Mountain West and have only two wins against tournament teams, and one of those is against a Colorado State team that has been slipping a ton lately as well.
-Colorado (rather than Oregon), Michigan State and Virginia are the three teams John left out that I would have in. I also think the Gonzaga is very close to being back in this field as they keep winning and the rest of the Bubble keeps losing.