Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

-If you are at all a fan of college basketball, and you wanted to pick a day to sort of take a break from it, then I hope to hell that day wasn’t yesterday!!

-Alabama had to sweat out yet another opponent.  This time it was at home against an Arkansas team that REALLY could have used a win of this caliber, but Bama managed to come from behind in the second half and escape with an 86-83 win.

-West Virginia went to Kansas, and it looked to be a game where they were shooting at the moon.  The thing is, they almost hit the moon!  WVU played what was perhaps their most impressive games of the season, and had a chance to tie or win on their final possession of the game, but came up just short 76-74.  This would have been a huge difference maker and likely virtually locked WVU into the field had they been able to pull it off.

-Indiana had beaten Purdue earlier this season, but that was at home and not many people expected them to be able to do it again at Purdue.  Well…they DID do it again!  In what was one of the more impressive singular wins of the season for any team, they totally controlled the second half and upset their rivals 79-71 for the regular season sweep.  It’s a win that gives them bragging rights, and that should shoot them way up the seedlist!

-Arizona was (and still is) a solid protected seed, and they were at home against rivals Arizona State who was outside the bubble and who needed a monster win just to get a look.  This game was close all throughout, but Arizona appeared to win it in the final seconds and deny Arizona State a huge rivalry road win that they really needed on their resume.  And then…as time expired…Arizona hit a last second desperation heave from beyond mid court for an 89-88 win that puts them back within reach of making the NCAA Tournament.

-Miami FL struggled at home against rivals Florida State, who have not been good at all this year, but who played a great game yesterday.  Miami hit what appeared to be a winning shot in the final seconds and were set to escape with a win and stay within reach of a protected seed, but then….Florida State hit a long 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull off the 85-84 upset.

-San Diego State managed to pick up one of their best wins of the season as they went on the road to New Mexico, and faced a team who desperately needed a big win to help build up their resume and to pull themselves out of the quicksand they had been sinking in to.  This was another really good game that was played at a high level, and New Mexico hit a shot to put them ahead with just 6 seconds to go.  San Diego State then came down….and….hit a shot at the buzzer for the 73-71 win!!  This one wasn’t quite as dramatic as the others, though.  It was just a regular shot and not a half court heave.  On paper it’s a really nice win for San Diego State and a big missed opportunity for a New Mexico team that needed a big win.

-There was a FOURTH buzzer beater yesterday in a de facto Ohio Valley Conference Tournament game where Lindenwood and Little Rock were playing for the final spot in the OVC Tournament.  The winner would qualify, and the loser’s season would end.  It went into overtime, and as time was expiring Lindenwood hit a deep 3 for the win.  I don’t know this for sure, but I think Little Rock may be leading the nation in most losses either in overtime or by 3pts or less.  They’ve got 8 of those, BTW.

-Kansas State got another nice 73-68 road win against an Oklahoma State team that REALLY needed to win this game.  The Pokes have now lost four straight, and have the kind of resume that really could go either way right now as to whether or not the committee will select them.

-Baylor held of Texas 81-72 in a battle of top ten teams that could both end up on the #2 line or better.

-Gonzaga avenged their early season loss to Saint Mary’s 77-68.  They actually had a big lead early in the second half and SMC fought back, but could not come all the way back.  The two are tied in the standings, and the tiebreaker will be the NET, so SMC will still likely end up with the #1 seed in the WCC Tournament.

-Creighton was upset at Villanova yesterday, which was a bit of a surprise considering how well Creighton had been playing recently, and how much Villanova has been struggling this year.  Nova has had quite a week!  They’ve managed to beat two top 20 opponents.  Its’ not nearly enough to get them within eyesight of the bubble, but it was a damn good week and they are now a very respectable 9-9 in the Big East.

-Virginia’s stretch of playing poorly continues.  It’s not easy to win at North Carolina, but prior to two weeks ago Virginia was playing at the caliber of a protected seed, and it was the kind of game you’d expect them to be able to win.  They ended up losing 71-63 and picking up their second straight loss.  As for UNC, it was probably their biggest win of the season and a win that puts them from being outside the bubble to perhaps right on it.

-Oklahoma pulled off an upset against Iowa State on the road 61-50, and suddenly the Cyclones are looking a lot less shiny than they were looking just a few weeks ago.

-TCU got a huge 83-82 road win against a Texas Tech team who had been playing really well and was starting to look like they might make the NCAA Tournament, but who also needed to keep stringing together wins.  This helps pull TCU out of a bit of a slump, and knocks Texas Tech a little further outside the bubble.

-Texas A&M had been on a rampage, and had put together two really big wins last week, but couldn’t keep it up yesterday as they fell on the road 69-62 to a Mississippi State team that is squarely on the bubble, and who has played really well at home, and who really needed the win themselves yesterday.

-Clemson has lost multiple games this year that should have been as easy to win as a typical buy game.  They’ve also played games where they’ve looked absolutely fantastic.  Yesterday it was the latter.  They went on the road to face a good NC State team that’s been even better at home, and absolutely blew them to the moon.  The final score was 96-71, and the game was over well before the first half ended.

-Michigan State and Iowa was a double overtime thriller where neither team could miss in the second half.  It was tied at halftime, tied at the end of regulation, and tied at the end of the first overtime.  Iowa finally prevailed 112-106, and it is a win that will help their resume some, but both teams appear to be solidly inside the bubble right now.

-Kentucky absolutely thrashed Auburn 86-54.  It was a game that could have really helped out Auburn had they won, but they came up just 32 points short.  Is Kentucky FINALLY starting to play at the caliber a lot of us were expecting to see back in October?

-Boise State, who has been straddling the bubble for weeks, suffered a costly loss yesterday at San Jose State 74-68.  It was a road game, and San Jose State isn’t terrible, but it’s still a game that a team who is on the bubble needs to win if they want to land on the right side of the cut line.

-USC picked up their second road win of the week as they knocked off Utah 62-49.  Neither Colorado or Utah are teams that are inside the bubble, but to go on the road and beat both of them is a big deal for a USC team that is on the bubble and who needs to land on the right side of it.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-NORTHWESTERN AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Northwestern blew a big second half lead at Illinois, and had they held on to win they’d have shot up the seedlist, but they’ve got another chance to get a big road win today against a Maryland team that I’m not as big on as most others because of how poor they’ve been away from home, but AT home has looked like a protected seeded caliber team.  It’s a win the Wildcats should get a lot of credit for if they can somehow pull it off.

-CINCINNATI AT MEMPHIS (American).  Cincinnati has been playing much better, but winning on the road at Memphis will be a very tall order.  Memphis is inside our bubble, but they are right on the edge of it and really can’t afford to lose to anyone that isn’t Houston the rest of the way.

-WISCONSIN AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Wisconsin is also right on the edge of our bubble and this game, along with all their remaining games, has a pivotal feel to it.  Michigan is very schizophrenic.  Sometimes they play at a really high level, and other times they just sort of wet the bed.  But, while we don’t have them inside our bubble right now, they are close enough to it to reach it if they finish the season strong and pick up some notable wins in the Big Ten Tournament.

-DRAKE AT BRADLEY (Missouri Valley).  This is also John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day.  CLICK HERE to read his take on it.  This is for first place in the Missouri Valley and a chance to lock up at least an NIT bid, but more importantly than that it’s a game between two teams who are both capable of winning a game in the Round of 64 if they are able to get there.  It’s also a resume builder, which can help improve their seed and get a more winnable game in the Round of 64.  These two may be facing each other again a week from today, and that will obviously be a much bigger game, but today is still really big.

-RUTGERS AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  Some have Penn State floating around the bubble, and I suppose there is a chance they make the field, but it will take a very strong finish.  Rutgers is safely in the field and has some really big wins on their resume, but they’ve also lost four out of five and have not been the best road team, so a win today would actually help make their resume look a lot better.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-Illinois @ Ohio State (Big Ten) – Illinois should be riding high after a come from behind win to beat Northwestern, whereas Ohio State is riding so low that they are under the ground right now
-Providence @ Georgetown (Big East) – Providence has not been the best road team, but they should be able to get this one today
-UCLA @ Colorado (Big 12) – it’s not the easiest road game, but it’s a road game a solid protected seed like UCLA should be able to win

UTR WATCH:

-SIENA AT IONA (Metro Atlantic).  Iona will clinch an outright first place finish with a win

-Hofstra won their game against Northeastern, which means they end the season tied for first place in the Colonial with Charleston, but will be the #1 seed in the tournament due to having the head to head win against them earlier this year

SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATES ( click here to view):

Courtesy of Chad Sherwood

-AMERICA EAST –  Albany out if they lose at home to NJIT

-IVY LEAGUE – If Cornell wins at Yale OR Brown wins at Columbia then Harvard and/or Dartmouth are eliminated if either team loses (Harvard home vs Princeton, Dartmouth at Penn)

-MAC – Western Michigan out if they lose at Akron AND Central Michigan wins home vs Northern Illinois

-OHIO VALLEY – Little Rock is out with a loss at Lindenwood.  If Little Rock win, Lindenwood is eliminated from the OVC Tournament, but they are already off the Survival Board.

-SWAC –  MVSU out with a home loss to Ark-Pine Bluff

Last night had a couple games of note involving NCAA Tournament-bound teams; Xavier got off the mat after getting out to a 19-point lead at Seton Hall at halftime. The Pirates got out of the gates with a 12-1 run, but Xavier answered with a 12-0 run of their own and the Musketeers ended up with a 22-point win. There were a few fireworks at the end of the game, but ended up with no more than offsetting technicals and one ejection for a Seton Hall player leaving the bench. The Pirates now have to win the Big East tournament to go dancing.

Nevada avoided stubbing their toes at Fresno State, which is more than can be said for other teams in the Mountain West. The Wolf Pack end their regular season with a game at Wyoming and a home game against UNLV. They would be well advised to win both games before the Mountain West tournament.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-CREIGHTON AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Creighton is solidly in the field and is pretty much just playing for seeding the rest of the way.  They could even end up as high as a protected seed if they can finish strong.  They’re clearly the superior team here, but playing on the road is never easy, but in saying that it is a chance to add another road win to their resume. That said, Villanova is every bubble team’s nightmare – this team is finally healthy and showed Tuesday at Xavier that they are still perfectly capable of doing major damage at the Big East tournament in a couple of weeks.

-TCU AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12).  This is a huge game for Texas Tech, as are all their remaining games, as the Red Raiders actually have a shot at landing inside the bubble.  TCU has dealt with injuries this season, and dropped a lot of games during that stretch, but they are healthy again and they are dangerous.  Texas Tech is at home, they have also had their own injury problems and they’ve been playing really well lately.  So, it’s a high stakes game between two teams that are playing well and who could really use the win.

-CLEMSON AT NC STATE (ACC).  Clemson has some really stinko losses on their resume and is currently outside our bubble, but they can still end up landing inside of it if they can finish strong.  This is a huge opportunity that they really kind of need.  As for NC State, they’re hovering around our 8/9s seed lines and should remain there so long as they continue to hold serve in games like this.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Both teams are inside the bubble, both are safely inside the field minus a meltdown, and both have a chance to build up their resume and climb the seedlist between now and the end.  I really like how Michigan State has been playing lately, but they will definitely be tested in this one today.

-ARKANSAS AT ALABAMA (SEC).  Alabama has a path to being the #1 overall seed, and Arkansas appears to be far enough inside the bubble that they will likely stay there, but the Hogs could REALLY shoot up the seedlist if they were to pull off this upset today.

-ARIZONA STATE AT ARIZONA (Pac 12).  Arizona is a solid protected seed who some feel could reach the #1 line, whereas Arizona State is outside our bubble and won’t be able to get inside of it unless they’re able to pick up a win like this.

-TEXAS AT BAYLOR (Big 12).  Both teams are ranked in the top ten, both appear to be headed toward protected seeds, and both still have a chance at ending up on the #1 line, especially Texas if they can pick up a massive road win like this.  It’s more of a showcase game between two highly ranked teams than it is a must-win game between teams playing for their tournament lives, but as far as the final seedlist goes it’s a big game for both teams.

-KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  Another big game in the Big 12.  K State is looking to lock up a protected seed, and Oklahoma State is looking to simply land inside the bubble and make the field.  The Pokes have lost three straight after appearing to be on a pace to where they’d continue to climb the seedlist and coast to a place in the field, but now they are in a position to where they probably need to win two of their last three in order to feel safe heading into the Big 12 Tournament.

-TEXAS A&M AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  Texas A&M is on an absolute rampage.  They had won a lot of games, and when their schedule suddenly got harder about a week ago, they kept winning games.  They’ve gone from being on the fringe of the bubble to looking at a possible 5 seed if they keep it up, and perhaps even better depending on what happens between now and the end.  This will not be an easy game.  It’s on the road against a good Mississippi State team who’s been very good at home and who really needs this win to help ensure they land on the right side of the bubble.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT KANSAS (Big 12).  A bubble team is visiting a likely #1 seed.  This is probably too tall of an order for a West Virginia team that needs to some how find a few more wins between now and the end of the season, but if they were to pull it off, it would probably make the difference in regards to them getting into the field.

-AUBURN AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Auburn is solidly on the bubble and a win in a game like this on the road and against a team that now appears to be solidly in the field, would go a very long way.  Kentucky still has a lot to play for as well.  If they want to improve their seed then they need a strong finish to the season.

-VIRGINIA AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  Virginia has not looked good at all in their last three games.  They struggled to beat two really weak teams, and then failed to beat Boston College, who is also a weak team.  North Carolina has failed to win any games at all that indicate they belong in the tournament.  A win today may not be enough to get them there, but it would at least be a huge step in the right direction.  They are at home, they’ve have played well at home all year, and Virginia has not played well in their last three games, so golden opportunities do not get more golden than this.

-INDIANA AT PURDUE (Big Ten).  Indiana won the first battle between these two, and they’ve shown multiple times that they can win big games on the road, but winning THIS game on the road is just an entirely different level.  Purdue is still in the hunt for a #1 seed and will likely get it if they win out through the regular season, which is something they are definitely good enough to do.  If IU were to win this, then they’d jump from being a possible protected seed to an almost assured protected seed.

-USC AT UTAH (Pac 12).  USC is squarely on the bubble and they are coming off a really nice (and decisive) win at Colorado the other night.  If they can follow that up with a win tonight, it would probably have them sweating a whole lot less in regards to them making the field.  Utah is outside the bubble, but to beat them on their court would still be considered a solid win.

-SAINT MARY’S AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  Saint Mary’s won the first meeting between these two, and throughout most of conference play actually looked like the better team, but for the past two weeks the Zags have been on a rampage.  I cannot foresee the Zags not being amped up for this game.  They don’t want to not finish in first place, they don’t want to finish behind their rivals, and they don’t want to be swept by their rivals.  Tonight should be a crazy atmosphere.  As for Saint Mary’s, if they were to somehow win this, I will go from liking them to REALLY liking them!

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West).  San Diego State is solidly in the filed, but I personally don’t like them quite as much as most everyone else seems to.  Most of the rest of Hoops HD has them around the #6 line whereas I have them in the 8/9 range.  Having said that, if they get this win on the road tonight, I will like them a lot more.  As for New Mexico, they are right on the bubble and really need this win just to end up on the right side of it.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-UConn @ Saint John’s (Big East) – UConn has really come to life having won five of their last six, and they should be able to continue that string today
-Oklahoma @ Iowa State (Big 12) – Iowa State is just 3-7 in their last ten games, and while they are safely in the field, and could even still end up as a protected seed, they need this one today if for no other reason than it is probably their most winnable remaining game
-Missouri @ Georgia (SEC) – a challenging, but winnable, road game for a Mizozu team who can make their profile look a little bit better by picking up another road win
-UTEP @ Florida Atlantic (Conference USA) – we say this every time, but if FAU wins out they should go into the field on the first ballot
-Florida State @ Miami FL (ACC) – Miami has had a fantastic season, is high in the rankings, and could end up as a protected seed if they’re able to finish strong
-Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (ACC) – I like how Pitt has been playing and think they should be able to hold serve and get this one at home.  Syracuse still has a very slim chance at making a run at the bubble, but they’d basically need to win out until the ACC Championship Game
-Florida @ Vanderbilt (SEC) – it’s not likely, but Vandy is currently 8-7 in SEC play and this is a winnable game.  If they can win out they’d be at 11-7, and if they can then win a game or two in the SEC Tournament, then….maybe they get looked at?
-Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (ACC) – Wake is outside the bubble, but they are at least close enough to it to reach it with a strong finish to the season and a good showing in the ACC Tournament
-Boise State @ San Jose State (Mountain West) – Boise State is inside the bubble, but still pretty close to the edge of it.  They can’t afford to lose games, even on the road, to teams that are nowhere near the bubble.
-DePaul @ Marquette (Big East) – Marquette has been outstanding and is on pace to be the first place finisher in the Big East, and could end up as high as the #2 line if everything falls into place.  This should be a layup win for them
-Houston @ East Carolina (American) – Houston is on pace to get a #1 seed, and will almost be assured of it if they win out through the regular season
-Virginia Tech @ Duke (ACC) – Duke is solidly in the field and is unbeaten at home.  I look for them to remain solidly in the field and unbeaten at home after tonight

UTR WATCH:

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-STONY BROOK AT CHARLESTON (Colonial).  Charleston is tied with Hofstra with just one game to go.  A win today clinches at least a share, but they need Hofstra to lose in order to get the #1 seed.

-IVY LEAGUE – Princeton, Yale, and Penn are tied for first place with just two games to go, whereas Cornell, Brown, and Dartmouth are in a three-way tie for 4th place, and the final spot in the Ivy League Tournament.  It looks like it’s going to come down to the final game of the season next week regardless of what happens today.  Princeton will play at Harvard, in a game that Harvard needs to win in order to stay alive for a spot in the Ivy League Tournament.  Penn hosts Dartmouth and Yale hosts Cornell

-FURMAN AT SAMFORD (SoCon).  If Samford can win this game, then they clinch an outright first place finish.  If Furman wins, then it’s at least a two-way tie with the possibility of a three-way tie if UNC Greensboro beats East Tennessee State.

-BUFFALO AT TOLEDO (MAC).  Toledo has a one game lead with three left to play.  They can clinch a share of first place with a win today and a Kent State loss.

-NORTHEASTERN AT HOFSTRA (Colonial).  With a win, Hofstra clinches at least a share of first place, and the #1 seed in the conference tournament via the tiebreaker over Charleston.  Hofstra beat Charleston earlier in the year.

-ORAL ROBERTS AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League).  Oral Roberts has already clinched an outright first place finish, but this is perhaps their toughest conference game, so it’s more of a litmus test for ORU than anything else.

-UT MARTIN AT MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley).  Morehead State has already clinched an outright first place finish and a bye into the semis of the conference tournament.  Today is just a warm-up game and a final home send off.

-HOWARD AT NC CENTRAL (MEAC).  Howard has a one game lead over Norfolk State with three games to go.   They can clinch at least a share of first place with a win today and a Norfolk loss to South Carolina State (which, admittedly, isn’t likely).

-VERMONT AT BRYANT (America East).  Vermont has clinched first place and will have home court advantage throughout the conference tournament.  This will probably be one of their tougher conference road games, but win or lose it doesn’t matter.  They’ve already clinched.

-COLGATE AT NAVY (Patriot League).  Colgate has already clinched first place and will have home court advantage throughout the conference tournament.

-UNC ASHEVILLE AT LONGWOOD (Big South).  These are the top two teams in the conference, but UNC Asheville has already clinched first place.  Having said that, this league no longer plays the tournament at campus sites, so all 1st place really means is that they get to wear white uniforms throughout the tournament.

-HORIZON LEAGUE – it’s the last day of the season, and we’ve got a two-way tie for first place between Cleveland State and Youngstown State.  Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky are just a game behind them and could both still win at least a share of first place.  Cleveland State and Youngstown State split the season series, but if one wins and the other loses, then whoever wins ends up being the outright first place finisher.  If they both win or both lose, it gets a little crazy after that.  Youngstown goes to IUPUI, which is about as winnable as a game can possibly be, and Cleveland State goes to Milwaukee, who is just a game behind them and can tie them in the standings.