With our colleague David Dorman out of town as of this writing, it has fallen onto our colleague John Stalica to submit the Hoops HD Staff Bracket for this week. This is not to be confused with what Jon Teitel posts every week; that is where he attempts to guess what the Selection Committee will do as of that week’s checkpoint of games. Rather, this is how Stalica feels the field should look like.
And here is the bracket below:
First Four Out: West Virginia, Utah State, Texas Tech, North Texas
Worth a look: Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson, Seton Hall, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Santa Clara, Arizona State, Utah, Oregon, Saint Louis, Nebraska, Vanderbilt
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– I still believe that Alabama, Kansas, Purdue and Houston are the #1 seeds among all the teams, but Purdue is starting to lose its stranglehold it enjoyed at the top after losing 3 out of their last 4 games. I would have seriously considered adding Baylor to that group had they finished the season sweep of Kansas, but alas that did not happen.
– The real Selection Committee had 5 Big 12 teams when they submitted their list; they debated their list on Monday, Tuesday and early Wednesday. That tells me that they probably didn’t consider Marquette’s win at home against Xavier to take control of the Big East conference lead. Likewise, had Xavier not swept UConn in the regular season, the Musketeers would probably be hanging around the 5-line after surprise losses at DePaul and at Butler.
– Had Northwestern not lost at home against Ohio State and gotten swept by Michigan, the Wildcats would be looking at a protected seed themselves right now. They can actually get there with a strong performance in the B1G Conference Tournament in a couple weeks.
– Texas A&M is now becoming a fast riser up the list now that they have season sweeps of Auburn and Missouri on the books. They can rise up even faster if they can beat either Alabama or Tennessee at home in the final 2 weeks of the regular season.
– When we do our scrub of the Survival Board, one of the questions we ask when listing teams Under Consideration is: Should they win all their remaining games and lose in the conference championship, should they be considered a potential at-large NCAA Tournament team?
– Teams like Nebraska and Vanderbilt would have been preposterous a couple weeks ago. But the Huskers have suddenly won 3 straight games at home against Wisconsin, AT Rutgers and at home against Maryland. (Also keep in mind they’re the only opposing team to win at Creighton.) Vanderbilt is even hotter with a 5-game winning streak and could actually sneak into the Top 4 of the SEC – meaning a double-bye in the conference tournament.
CHAD’s COMMENTS
– The Selection Committee has Houston #2 overall, and I believe they got it right. The metrics love this Cougars team, and they just do not have the chances for wins in conference play that the other teams on the top line have. Their win this weekend over the second best team in the conference, Memphis, emphasized that they deserve to be at or near the top of the overall seed list, not #4 overall.
– I still need someone to explain to me why Duke belongs in the top half of the bracket. The only thing that I see on their profile that gets them in that discussion are the letters D-U-K-E on the top. This team has no road wins over anyone close to making the field. They beat Iowa when Iowa was playing awful. The only thing decent they did was beat Miami at home and Xavier on a neutral court. That is enough for a bid, but not for a top 8 seed. I would have the Blue Devils in a 7/10 game — as the 10 seed.
– FAU on the 11 line is a sin. Yes, they lost this past weekend, but this team is still a solid at-large team and belongs at least in an 8/9 game.
– Wisconsin is now 15-11 overall with bad metrics. That is an NIT resume. New Mexico has 3 wins over at-large worthy teams and 4 losses to teams nowhere near the field. I think they are at least close, but would have left the Lobos out (a 2-0 week at Boise and home vs San Diego State this week would change my opinion however).
– Given who he put in, I love John’s top four out. I would have BOTH Big 12 teams in right now (yes 9 out of 10 teams from the league IN). This conference is insane and Texas Tech is quickly rising up. Their win at West Virginia was huge this weekend. I also love the North Texas at-large bid case (given how bad the rest of the choices are). Utah State is a team that I simply do not think is very good, but is probably right now where John has them due to a resume with a lot of wins and not much bad on it.
– At the bottom of the bracket, where is the SWAC love? Alcorn State was two road wins in Tier 2 (at Wichita State and at SFA) and only two Tier 4 losses. Texas A&M-CC has no wins above Tier 3 and *five* Tier 4 losses. Let’s get Alcorn out of Dayton and send Corpus Christi instead!!!
DAVID’S COMMENTS
-I concur with Alabama being the #1 overall team. I know they lost at Tennessee this week, but I believe all their losses have been on the road against protected seed caliber teams, and they are perhaps the only team in the country that is able to say that.
-The selection of Wisconsin really has me holding my nose, but it’s a 68 team tournament and you have to take SOMEONE. I do like that North Texas was considered as strongly as they were, and I actually like them more than Wisky. I would have probably selected them over all the other teams Stalica has on his bubble.
-I agree with Chad, which is something I hate doing, that Florida Atlantic on the #11 line is too low. I think they’re a little further inside the bubble than that.
-Texas A&M on the 7 line is perhaps a little higher than I would have had them, and I’m someone that’s been big on TAMU for a while now, but I actually don’t have a huge issue with it. They deserve a lot of credit for their win at Missouri, and can move up the seedlist even more if they can pick up wins against the likes of Alabama and Tennessee.
