Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Wednesday, Feb 15th

Posted on February 15, 2023 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day, which is a FANTASTIC one out of the Big West tonight – CLICK HERE

Almost nothing went as expected yesterday…

-Kansas State was on the road at Oklahoma, and while road games are tough, K State was a solid protected seed and Oklahoma was, at best, an NIT team.  Oklahoma won 79-65.  When Oklahoma is playing highly ranked teams at home, they look amazing!!  They’ve now managed wins against both Alabama and K State at home.  The problem for them is all the other games they’ve played.

-Oklahoma State has been on a rampage, and is good as Kansas is, they had struggled on the road against teams who were playing at a top 25 caliber level (well, who doesn’t?).  Last night, in front of a loud and lunatic level crowd, and against a good Oklahoma State team, Kansas controlled the second half and picked up a VERY impressive 87-76 win.

-NC State had been playing extremely well and was even looking like the best team behind Virginia in the ACC, especially in recent weeks.  Syracuse looked like a team that should make the NIT, but perhaps still had some work to do just to get that far.  NC State lost at Syracuse 75-72 last night.

-Illinois had been on an absolute tear and appeared to be climbing the seedlist, whereas Penn State was in such a freefall that it looked like they’d land somewhere in the middle of the NIT.  Penn State knocked off Illinois 93-81 and was in control for pretty much the entire game.

-Missouri was soaring!  They just picked up a HUGE road win at Tennessee and appeared to be playing like a top 25 caliber team!  Auburn, who had played well against some tough teams recently, but still came up short in all of them, was looking like a bubble team.  Auburn absolutely blew Mizzou’s doors off 89-56.  By the first media timeout, the game was basically over.

-Rutgers is having to deal with injuries, but is still having a fantastic season and had what appeared to be a night off last night at home against Nebraska.  they were behind pretty much the entire way and lost 82-72 to a Nebraska team that basically needs to win out just to get onto the NIT bubble.

-New Mexico, who has some solid wins on their resume that are keeping them inside the bubble, but was also just 6-6 in Mountain West play coming in to last night’s game.  The good news (or so we all thought) was that they were at home against a pitiful Wyoming team, and it was essentially a buy game.  So of course New Mexico trailed the entire game, and lost handily  70-56.  This should have been a predictable way to end the evening considering how the rest of the day had gone.  Now you start to wonder if New Mexico even belongs in the field at all.

-Duke won at home against Notre Dame, and keeps their perfect home record in tact, but they BARELY won.  It was 68-64 and came down to about the final minute of play.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Tennessee has lost two straight games on buzzer beaters, and had those games gone their way they’d almost assuredly be in the hunt for a #1 seed.  Right now it looks like Alabama could end up with the top overall #1 seed, and a win tonight would certainly be a huge step toward earning that.  As strong as Alabama’s profile is, a win tonight would probably be one of their single most impressive wins of the season considering that it’s on the road against a Tennessee team that’s likely to end up as a protected seed.

-XAVIER AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  These are the top two teams in the Big East, and the first game was a classic.  Xavier is now dealing with injuries, and that is a big concern, and Marquette is an extremely impressive 13-1 at home.  Xavier has just three conference losses, but two of those are complete headscratchers at DePaul and at Butler, so on top of not being completely healthy Xavier isn’t always the best team away from home.

-KENTUCKY AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  This is a massively important bubbilicous game for both teams.  Mississippi State has suddenly come to life with five straight wins, but they need to keep piling them up in order to finish inside the bubble, and they need this one at home against a Kentucky team that’s also on the bubble, and who hasn’t been overly impressive in true road games.  If Kentucky were to win it would actually be one of their more impressive wins on the season, and a huge (and much needed) boost to their profile.

-INDIANA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten).  Both teams are red hot.  Both (at least I believe) are top 25 caliber teams, and Indiana can even make a run at a protected seed if they can continue to rack up wins.  A road win today would go a long way for the Hoosiers.

-TCU AT IOWA STATE (Big 12).  Since conference play began we’ve said we thought as many as six Big 12 teams could end up as protected seeds.  While that could still happen, for the last couple of weeks these two have been slipping.  TCU has been dealing with injuries, and Iowa State has just hit a skid.  Still, both are solid top 25 teams, and both still have paths to protected seeds if they can get back to winning at a strong clip.  Tonight’s game is as important from a momentum perspective as it is from a paper perspective.  Both teams could just really use a big win right now.

-ARKANSAS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  Arkansas has probably moved up the seedlist and is relatively safely inside the bubble, but they could really help themselves out with a win tonight over their old SWC rivals.  TAMU got off to a slow start this season, and while they’ve played really well for the last several weeks or so and are definitely headed in the right direction, they still aren’t quite to their destination yet.  A win tonight would be yet another big step forward.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-Virginia @ Louisville (ACC) – these two have had some classic battles in recent years, but it shouldn’t be that way this year.  This is about as close to a buy game as a road game can seem
-Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ACC) – if VA Tech is going to reach the bubble they pretty much need to win out. They definitely can’t afford to lose a game like this
-Florida State @ Clemson (ACC) – Clemson is right on the bubble, and like all bubble teams every game is critical. They cannot afford in a game like this at home
-Boise State @ Colorado State (Mountain West) – Boise State is on the bubble and can’t afford to lose games to teams that are nowhere near the bubble, even if it is on the road
-San Diego State @ Fresno State (Mountain West) – San Diego State is starting to separate themselves from the rest of the MWC.  They need to hold serve on the road tonight.
-Oregon @ Washington (Pac 12) – this is a rivalry with more heat to it than what most may realize. It’s also a big game for an Oregon team that needs a strong finish the regular season in order to reach the bubble

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Under The Radar Game of the Day – Wednesday, February 15th

Posted on February 15, 2023 by John Stalica

UC-Irvine (17-8, 10-3) at UC-Santa Barbara (20-4, 11-2) – 10:00 PM (ESPN+)

On certain nights, the best game gets saved for last – this is one of those nights in which we get a Top 2 matchup in the Big West between the UC-Irvine Anteaters and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos. UCSB won the first round of the Gauch-Eater Cup 73-65; Andre Kelly had a double-double with 22 points and 11 rebounds to lead the Gauchos in that win. That was the beginning of a stretch in which the Gauchos have won 7 of their last 8 games to take a 1-game lead over Irvine in the Big West.

UC-Irvine had a 5-game winning streak at the beginning of conference play until the aforementioned first game against UCSB. The only other stumbles in conference play came against Cal State-Fullerton and Long Beach State, both of which were on the road. Dawson Baker averages 15.1 points a game for the Anteaters.

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Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Tuesday, Feb 14th

Posted on February 14, 2023 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For our latest HOOPS HD REPORT, where we discuss all of the teams from the major conferences, recap last week, and preview this week – CLICK HERE

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-About 24hrs after I had professed that Texas should be on the #1 line, they go on the road and lose to a Texas Tech team that isn’t even inside the bubble.  I know this rivalry is heated, and is especially heated recently because of the storyline, but still.  A #1 seed caliber team should win that game on the road.  As for the Red Raiders, they have a long way to go to reach the bubble, but is it now at least possible?

-Miami FL got a nice road win at North Carolina, and Baylor didn’t really have to sweat West Virginia

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-GEORGETOWN AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Seton Hall is hovering around the bubble and can end up in the field if they finish the season strong.  This is more or less a buy game for the, so if they slip up in this one they’re really in trouble.

-CREIGHTON AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Both teams are in the rankings and both appear to be solidly in the field right now.  Creighton in particular has been on an absolute rampage, but Providence has proven to be extremely tough to beat at home, so this should be a showcase and it’s a chance for both teams to continue to boos their resumes and climb the seedlist.

-NC STATE AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  NC State is 9-2 in their last 11 games, and they’ve racked up that record against ACC opponents.  This should be a winnable road game for them, but Syracuse is good enough to where you can’t overlook them when you’re playing htem on their floor.  Still, NC State is looking more and more like a team that will go in on the first ballot and who should be able to get this one tonight.

-NOTRE DAME AT DUKE (ACC).  Duke kind of got punched in the mouth over the weekend after losing a close one at Virginia and some poor officiating mixed in, but they need to (and should be able to ) bounce back from that tonight and keep themselves in the top half of the bracket.

-ILLINOIS AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  Penn State was looking like a solid team for a while, but that was also a while ago.  Illinois is a team that I feel has been playing really well and may actually be better than their resume indicates.  They have a chance to move up the seedlist between now and the end of the year, and should be able to get his one even though it’s a road game.

-MISSOURI AT AUBURN (SEC).  Missouri just picked up what was easily their biggest win of the year, and in doing so moved themselves much further inside the bubble.  They’ve got a chance at another big road win tonight.  Auburn is playing with fire and needs some notable wins to stabilize their resume.  Therefore, they really need this one tonight.

-KENT STATE AT WESTERN MICHIGAN (MAC).  Kent State MIGHT get a look from the committee if they win out, but even with that they may not get selected.

-NEBRASKA AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  This should be some low hanging fruit for Rutgers, and they should be able to get this conference win at home.

-KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  If there was one game I wish I could be at this week, or perhaps even this month, it’s this one!  Oklahoma State has been playing very well, they have a ton of momentum built up, and believe it or not they can actually pull even with Kansas in the conference standings if they pull off this win tonight.  Not to mention add another big win to their resume and climb the seedlist even more.  Many feel like Kansas is sitll a #1 seed despite some of their recent losses.  I think a win tonight would go a long way toward them ending up with a 1 seed.

-KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12).  There are eight really solid teams in this conference, and Oklahoma isn’t one of them.  They do have some big wins this season, though, including a win over Alabama at home, so K State can’t just overlook them.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  This current ACC/Former Big East game should be a routine win for a Pitt team that has been getting better and better as the season has gone along.

-MICHIGAN AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Wisky is drowning in quicksand, and they need to turn things around in a hurry and start stringing together wins just to get back inside the bubble so they can make the field.

-WYOMING AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West).  New Mexico is inside the bubble, but in that 10-12 seed range where they aren’t exactly safely inside of it.  They need to hold serve tonight.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day – Tuesday, February 14th

Posted on February 14, 2023 by John Stalica

Akron (17-8, 9-3) at Eastern Michigan (6-19, 3-9) – 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

With today being Valentine’s Day, we don’t really get matchups between top UTR teams today, but there is somewhat of a showcase game between the Akron Zips and the hometown Eastern Michigan Eagles. Emoni Bates has singlehandedly made Eastern Michigan somewhat interesting to watch, if only to see what stat line he’ll offer up night in and night out. Against Toledo on January 24, he scored 43 points in the Glass City in an 84-79 loss against the Rockets. However, he was limited to a season-low 4 points in the Eagles’ most recent outing – a 70-63 loss against Toledo.

Akron looked like they were flying high and the team to beat in the MAC after beating Kent State in the first leg of the Wagon Wheel against Kent State 11 days ago. Since that game, the Zips have lost back-to-back games against Toledo and Ohio to fall down to 3rd place by a full game against Kent State and Toledo. Xavier Casteneda averages 21.7 points a game for Akron this season.

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The Hoops HD Report – Feb 13th

Posted on February 13, 2023 by David Griggs

We begin tonight by spending a few minutes on the situation at New Mexico State.  They have cancelled all their remaining games and continuing to internally investigate some allegations of a serious nature within the program.

After that, we move on to look back on what was a crazy busy week in college basketball.  We begin in the SEC where Tennessee had to losses at the buzzer to Vanderbilt and Missouri, and discuss how that win for Mizzou completely changes the complexion of their resume.  We also talk about how Alabama is now the overall #1 team and how they’ve go ta big game coming up at Tennessee this week.  The Big 12 continues to look historically strong, but some of the teams like TCU and Iowa State are starting to slip a little bit.  Other teams, particularly Oklahoma State, are starting to look better and better.  In the Big Ten Purdue lost on the road to Northwestern, but still appears to be set up for a #1 seed if they can win out, Arizona had a surprising loss to Stanford in the Big 12, Saint Mary’s fell to LMU in the West Coast but is still in control of first place, and several teams from the Mountain West are hovering around the bubble.  We discuss all that, and more!!

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Hoops HD Staff Member Bracket Projections (From the Puppet) – Feb 13th

Posted on February 13, 2023 by David Griggs

THIS BRACKET REFLECTS GAMES PLAYED THROUGH FEBRUARY 12TH

I want to make sure everyone knows what they are looking at.  This IS NOT an attempt to guess what the actual Selection Committee is going to do.  I am not trying to win the Bracket Matrix.  This is simply what I personally feel the NCAA Tournament should look like if the season ended today, and what the field would look like if I were a committee of one.

If you want to see a bracket that tries to guess what the actual selection committee would do, then this bracket and article are not for you.  For that, you should check out JON TEITEL’S BRACKET BY CLICKING HERE.  He is as good of a Selection Committee Guessing Expert as anyone else on the planet.

My comments are below, and the rest of the staff’s comments are below that.  If they disagree with anything I have done, then THEY ARE WRONG!!!!

OTHERS CONSIDERED: USC, Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia Tech, Utah, North Texas, Wake Forest

COMMENTS FROM DAVID (the creator of the bracket):

As far as how I go about doing this, or what it is that I look for when assessing the teams, I’m really just asking myself one question.  How hard was it for each team to win the games that they’ve won and post the record that they have??  That’s really it.  I use all of the metrics and data and everything that is available to the real committee to help me answer that question, but at the end of the day that’s really all I’m really looking at when selecting and seeding the teams.

-Alabama is my overall #1 seed, and while that may not be the unanimous #1 at Hoops HD, that is probably at least the consensus #1 right now.

-I know most people will probably have Houston on their #1 lines, and truth be told I think the real committee would give them one at this point as well.  A strong case can be made for them, but I just think that both Texas, and now Baylor, have multiple wins that are more impressive than Houston’s best win.  Texas does have a loss to Illinois and Baylor has one to TCU, but both of those teams are solidly in the field, and those are the only two losses they have to teams that aren’t protected seeds.  Houston has a loss at home to Temple in addition to not topping out quite as high.

-A lot of people also have Arizona on their #1 line.  The top of their resume is pretty good, but it’s not as good as the four teams that I’ve put up there.  They also have two losses to teams with losing records, whereas Texas’s and Baylor’s losses, as noted above, are to far better teams.

-I love how Oklahoma State is playing, and while they do have some garbage on their resume, they’ve also put together an impressive stretch of wins in a very tough conference, and are actually in a logjam in the conference standings where nearly all of the other teams they’re jammed up with are protected seeds.

-I also like Pitt a lot.  I don’t know what there is not to like with wins against Virginia, and on the road against NC State and North Carolina, both of whom are really strong teams at home.  They do have one loss that sort of has you holding your nose, but to me considering all of the other things they’ve done, a loss to Florida State may be a disqualifier for a protected seed, but certainly not for being in on the first ballot and seeded in the top half of the bracket.

-Getting back to the central question I am always asking myself of how hard it was for teams to win the games that they’ve won and post the record that they have, when you look at North Carolina (who I didn’t select), Maryland (who I did select but seeded way lower than where most people would have them), and Auburn, I believe the answer to that question is…not very.

Nothing North Carolina has done was exceptionally hard to do.  They’ve beaten some decent teams, but they did so at home, and beating a team at home that is good overall, but that isn’t good on the road, does not qualify as “hard.”

Same with Maryland, who does have a couple of wins that I like, but also believe has had chance after chance after chance after chance and only managed a couple.  They’re also not a good road team, which is sort of a must for me.

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

– I am prepared to agree that Alabama has now earned the #1 overall seed after getting a win against Auburn on the road in a tough environment. However, I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger on Texas getting a #1 seed. They’re close but I do think Kansas should be on the 1-line. Baylor I would have #6 overall behind Kansas and Texas.

– I also give the Puppet credit for bringing Northwestern up to the #6 line; they have continued to pile up wins home and away. Rutgers is a home-court hero, and while they do have 2 quality wins away from the JMA (Purdue and Northwestern), that is it. If that trend continues, they may slide down to the 7-9 lines, but they are still a solid first-ballot team.

– While other bubble teams are wetting the bed, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State are making the biggest cases for themselves right about now. MSU had a very front-loaded SEC schedule with 4 games against Alabama and Tennessee. They’ve made up ground fast and now have added wins against TCU and at Arkansas to their resume. Personally, I would have had Mississippi State as the 7 and Oklahoma State as the 9, but I don’t have a huge beef with where they’re at.

– As much as I like the Big East, I need to hear the case for Seton Hall. They have 3 solid wins at Rutgers, against Memphis on a neutral court and at home against UConn. That gets negated when they have 3 iffy losses on their profile and only one more real chance at a win against a tournament team when they play Xavier at home in a couple of weeks. They really, really needed a win at home against Creighton to make their case.

– Clemson is another team where I suspect the Puppet just spun the roulette wheel and chose them instead of the “Others Considered” teams. I would have held my nose and chose Boise State, but the Tigers have gone in completely the wrong direction with losses in their last 3 games.

COMMENTS FROM CHAD

– I don’t like agreeing with John, but I like agreeing with the Puppet even less, so what John said about the #1 and 2 lines is, in my opinion, 100% correct.  I would have the same 6 teams in the same order as him to start my bracket, with Houston and Kansas on the 1 line and Texas and Baylor atop the 2 line.

– I also agree with John about the inclusion of Seton Hall.  I just don’t get it, and to have them a line above the First Four is ridiculous.  This team is 14-11 against D1 competition, and does not play in the Big 12 where that might get you in.  They have one true road win against a tournament team (at Rutgers) and have as many wins against tournament teams (Uconn, Rutgers, Memphis) as they have losses against teams not in this field (Oklahoma, Villanova, Siena).  That is just not good enough.

– I can actually live with Clemson being in, only because the bottom of the bracket is awful right now.  They would be my second team out right now, in fact — however, my first team out would be North Carolina. I agree about leaving Boise State out, but would have had USC and Oregon in my field (though both going to Dayton).

– I don’t often pick fights about the bottom of the bracket, but I will take anyone on David’s 13 line over Kent State, a team on the 12.  Kent State does not have a single win against the top two tiers, and 12 seeds have to be able to beat someone who is at least good enough to qualify for the CBI.

– All in all, this actually was a fairly solid bracket from the Puppet, and I had to work a bit to find things to take issue with (other than his awful Seton Hall 10-seed pick).  I guess that even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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