THIS BRACKET REFLECTS GAMES PLAYED THROUGH FEBRUARY 12TH
I want to make sure everyone knows what they are looking at. This IS NOT an attempt to guess what the actual Selection Committee is going to do. I am not trying to win the Bracket Matrix. This is simply what I personally feel the NCAA Tournament should look like if the season ended today, and what the field would look like if I were a committee of one.
If you want to see a bracket that tries to guess what the actual selection committee would do, then this bracket and article are not for you. For that, you should check out JON TEITEL’S BRACKET BY CLICKING HERE. He is as good of a Selection Committee Guessing Expert as anyone else on the planet.
My comments are below, and the rest of the staff’s comments are below that. If they disagree with anything I have done, then THEY ARE WRONG!!!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: USC, Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia Tech, Utah, North Texas, Wake Forest
COMMENTS FROM DAVID (the creator of the bracket):
As far as how I go about doing this, or what it is that I look for when assessing the teams, I’m really just asking myself one question. How hard was it for each team to win the games that they’ve won and post the record that they have?? That’s really it. I use all of the metrics and data and everything that is available to the real committee to help me answer that question, but at the end of the day that’s really all I’m really looking at when selecting and seeding the teams.
-Alabama is my overall #1 seed, and while that may not be the unanimous #1 at Hoops HD, that is probably at least the consensus #1 right now.
-I know most people will probably have Houston on their #1 lines, and truth be told I think the real committee would give them one at this point as well. A strong case can be made for them, but I just think that both Texas, and now Baylor, have multiple wins that are more impressive than Houston’s best win. Texas does have a loss to Illinois and Baylor has one to TCU, but both of those teams are solidly in the field, and those are the only two losses they have to teams that aren’t protected seeds. Houston has a loss at home to Temple in addition to not topping out quite as high.
-A lot of people also have Arizona on their #1 line. The top of their resume is pretty good, but it’s not as good as the four teams that I’ve put up there. They also have two losses to teams with losing records, whereas Texas’s and Baylor’s losses, as noted above, are to far better teams.
-I love how Oklahoma State is playing, and while they do have some garbage on their resume, they’ve also put together an impressive stretch of wins in a very tough conference, and are actually in a logjam in the conference standings where nearly all of the other teams they’re jammed up with are protected seeds.
-I also like Pitt a lot. I don’t know what there is not to like with wins against Virginia, and on the road against NC State and North Carolina, both of whom are really strong teams at home. They do have one loss that sort of has you holding your nose, but to me considering all of the other things they’ve done, a loss to Florida State may be a disqualifier for a protected seed, but certainly not for being in on the first ballot and seeded in the top half of the bracket.
-Getting back to the central question I am always asking myself of how hard it was for teams to win the games that they’ve won and post the record that they have, when you look at North Carolina (who I didn’t select), Maryland (who I did select but seeded way lower than where most people would have them), and Auburn, I believe the answer to that question is…not very.
Nothing North Carolina has done was exceptionally hard to do. They’ve beaten some decent teams, but they did so at home, and beating a team at home that is good overall, but that isn’t good on the road, does not qualify as “hard.”
Same with Maryland, who does have a couple of wins that I like, but also believe has had chance after chance after chance after chance and only managed a couple. They’re also not a good road team, which is sort of a must for me.
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I am prepared to agree that Alabama has now earned the #1 overall seed after getting a win against Auburn on the road in a tough environment. However, I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger on Texas getting a #1 seed. They’re close but I do think Kansas should be on the 1-line. Baylor I would have #6 overall behind Kansas and Texas.
– I also give the Puppet credit for bringing Northwestern up to the #6 line; they have continued to pile up wins home and away. Rutgers is a home-court hero, and while they do have 2 quality wins away from the JMA (Purdue and Northwestern), that is it. If that trend continues, they may slide down to the 7-9 lines, but they are still a solid first-ballot team.
– While other bubble teams are wetting the bed, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State are making the biggest cases for themselves right about now. MSU had a very front-loaded SEC schedule with 4 games against Alabama and Tennessee. They’ve made up ground fast and now have added wins against TCU and at Arkansas to their resume. Personally, I would have had Mississippi State as the 7 and Oklahoma State as the 9, but I don’t have a huge beef with where they’re at.
– As much as I like the Big East, I need to hear the case for Seton Hall. They have 3 solid wins at Rutgers, against Memphis on a neutral court and at home against UConn. That gets negated when they have 3 iffy losses on their profile and only one more real chance at a win against a tournament team when they play Xavier at home in a couple of weeks. They really, really needed a win at home against Creighton to make their case.
– Clemson is another team where I suspect the Puppet just spun the roulette wheel and chose them instead of the “Others Considered” teams. I would have held my nose and chose Boise State, but the Tigers have gone in completely the wrong direction with losses in their last 3 games.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I don’t like agreeing with John, but I like agreeing with the Puppet even less, so what John said about the #1 and 2 lines is, in my opinion, 100% correct. I would have the same 6 teams in the same order as him to start my bracket, with Houston and Kansas on the 1 line and Texas and Baylor atop the 2 line.
– I also agree with John about the inclusion of Seton Hall. I just don’t get it, and to have them a line above the First Four is ridiculous. This team is 14-11 against D1 competition, and does not play in the Big 12 where that might get you in. They have one true road win against a tournament team (at Rutgers) and have as many wins against tournament teams (Uconn, Rutgers, Memphis) as they have losses against teams not in this field (Oklahoma, Villanova, Siena). That is just not good enough.
– I can actually live with Clemson being in, only because the bottom of the bracket is awful right now. They would be my second team out right now, in fact — however, my first team out would be North Carolina. I agree about leaving Boise State out, but would have had USC and Oregon in my field (though both going to Dayton).
– I don’t often pick fights about the bottom of the bracket, but I will take anyone on David’s 13 line over Kent State, a team on the 12. Kent State does not have a single win against the top two tiers, and 12 seeds have to be able to beat someone who is at least good enough to qualify for the CBI.
– All in all, this actually was a fairly solid bracket from the Puppet, and I had to work a bit to find things to take issue with (other than his awful Seton Hall 10-seed pick). I guess that even a broken clock is right twice a day.
