-UC RIVERSIDE AT UC DAVIS (Big West). UC Riverside will be elimianted if they lose this one. They will no longer be able to qualify for the Big West Tournament.
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NEWS AND NOTES:
-VCU jumped out to big lead early at Saint Louis and for most of the first half it looked like the Rams were going to get the big signature road win they needed to land inside the bubble. Then the second half started, and SLU Played played an absolutely perfect 20 minutes and not only came back, but blew it open. Oh, and there was a bit of a scuffle after the game, which is starting to just become a footnote whenever these two play. After several technical freethrows and ejections in the final seconds, SLU won 88-75 and the score looked a little more respectable. VCU also ended the game with only 4 players on the floor after multiple ejections for leaving the bench area during the scuffle.
-Purdue boat-raced Indiana 93-64. The score was not respectable. Nothing about it was. They blew out their rivals as if it were a buy game.
-Congrats to Merrimack who clinched 1st place in the MAAC!!! They got a battle from Siena, but held on to win 79-72. It is their first 1st-place finish since transitioning up to D1.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-MIAMI FL AT VIRGINIA (ACC). The Canes have won six of their last seven and have three solid wins in a row against North Carolina, NC State, and Virginia Tech. This is a really tough road test against a Virginia team that looks to be good enough to earn a protected seed and who has just one loss since New Years Day.
-TENNESSEE AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Vandy has a path to a protected seed. they’re also a team that if they fall behind by 20 or more you know they may come roaring back (yet still lose in the process). Tennessee has won seven of their last eight with the only loss being a close one to Kentucky on the road. They have a solid profile, but this would perhaps be their biggest win of the season if they can pull it off. It would at least be their biggest true road win of the year, so both teams have a lot to play for. That, and they don’t like each other!
-ARIZONA AT HOUSTON (Big 12). Both teams are ranked in the top five and both are within reach of the #1 line. That’s really all you need to know. It goes without saying that winning this game would be a big step toward ending up as a #1 seed. Houston may be the toughest place in the country for visiting teams to win at, so it’s a great test for Arizona.
-TEXAS AT GEORGIA (SEC). Both teams are in our brackets, but they are in the bottom half of them and still have work to do. This has a bit of a bubblicious feel to it. I won’t go so far to say that it’s a must win, but it’s certainly a very pivotal game that both teams need.
-MISSOURI AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Missouri is hovering around the bubble. A win on the road in a game like this would make them much much safer. Arkansas still has a path to a protected seed, but they need to really finish strong in order to get there. They’re coming off a double OT thriller at Alabama where they lost 117-115 and are looking to bounce back.
-WINTHROP AT HIGH POINT (Big South). This is an Under the Radar game, but it’s between the two best teams in the Big South and it’s two teams that are good enough to really give someone fits in the Round of 64 if one of them were to get there, so we are putting it up with the highlighted games. High Point’s roster is rich with talent and Winthrop is dead even with them in the conference standings. You may recall that Winthrop nearly won at Arkansas earlier this season.
-CONNECTICUT AT VILLANOVA (Big East). This is likely UConn’s toughest remaining game until perhaps the Big East Final if they were to match up against Saint John’s. Villanova appears to be heading for the top half of the bracket and has a chance at a huge upset today
-MICHIGAN VS DUKE (Washington DC). In the grand scheme of things this is a showcase game more than a stakes game. Both teams are likely #1 seeds regardless of what the outcome of this game ends up being. Having said that, there actually is SOMETHING at stake and that’s the overall #1 seed. Michigan has stated that if they are the overall #1 seed that they would like to go to Philadelphia even though Buffalo is closer. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Duke would also like to go to Philadelphia. So…it’s quite possible that Philadelphia is what’s at stake today!!! (Granted, both teams have a lot of games to play after this).
-ILLINOIS AT UCLA (Big Ten). Illinois looks to be on path to end up as a protected seed and other than Michigan may be the best team in the Big Ten. UCLA is right on the bubble and is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Mick Cronin has been all over social media for what he did during and after the game, but every time Mick Cronin does something like that his team seems to play well. UCLA desperately needs this win and I actually wouldn’t be shocked if they somehow pulled it off.
-KENTUCKY AT AUBURN (SEC). Auburn has lost five straight to fall to 14-12 overall and while none of those losses were bad in and of themselves, five straight losses does add up. They really need to win this game in order to pull themselves out of the tailspin they’re in, but it won’t be easy. Kentucky has lost two straight and could use a road win a road win like this themselves, so both teams should have a sense of urgency.
-UTAH STATE AT NEVADA (Mountain West). Even though Nevada is nowhere near the field this is still one of the toughest remaining tests for Utah State this season. They should end up in the top half of the bracket if they can win out.
-IOWA STATE AT BYU (Big 12). BYU has not been the same since getting hit with injuries (understandably so), but they are still a good team. Having said that, they need a big win to help things get fully turned back around. Iowa State is a great team, but like all other teams they’re not as good on the road as they are at home. This would be a huge win for the Cyclones and may even put them within reach of the 1-line.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Florida @ Ole Miss (SEC) – Florida should be able to win this one on the road and continue to keep themselves atop the SEC
-Creighton @ Saint John’s (Big East) – Creighton just got a big win against UConn, which was a great moment in their season but not nearly enough to get them anywhere near the bubble. The Johnnies can continue their string of wins and work toward a protected seed. However, they better not be looking ahead to their next game at UConn which will likely determine the Big East regular season champion.
-Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech (ACC) – VA Tech is on the outside looking in and cannot afford to lose at home to a team that’s nowhere near the bubble
-Florida State @ Clemson (ACC) – Clemson has lost three straight and gone from looking like a fringe protected seed to maybe falling out of the top half of the bracket if they can’t pull themselves out of it. They need to win this one at home, but Florida State has had a knack for playing spoiler this year.
-Cincinnati @ Kansas (Big 12) – Cincinnati has been playing better, but I don’t think they’re improved to the point of being able to beat Kansas on the road
-North Carolina @ Syracuse (ACC) – since their big win against Duke, UNC appears to be sliding down instead of trending up. They’ve lost two of their last three and were absolutely blown out by NC State earlier in the week. This is a road game they should win, but Syracuse can be tough to beat at home
-Penn State @ Nebraska (Big Ten) – Nebraska has lost four of their last six and all those games have been battles. They should be able to catch their breath at home today against a less than mediocre Penn State team
-Georgia Tech @ Louisville (ACC) – it’s a conference home game that may as well be a buy game
-Kansas State @ Texas Tech (Big 12) – it’s a conference home game that may as well be a buy game. Having said that, it’s Texas Tech’s first game without JT Toppin
-Oregon @ USC (Big Ten) – USC is right on the fringe of the bubble and absolutely must hold serve at home against non-tournament teams (much less a potential Stallings Award winner)
-Boston College @ SMU (ACC) – SMU is inside the bubble and should be able to hold serve at home in this one
-West Virginia @ TCU (Big 12) – I don’t think West Virginia has a path to get inside the bubble unless they win out and get some big wins in the Big 12 Tournament. TCU is right on the bubble and needs to hold serve in this one
-Alabama @ LSU (SEC) – the Tide have a very solid profile and can still end up as a protected seed. They should be able to add another road win to their profile tonight
-Stanford @ California (ACC) – Cal can still reach the bubble, but they need a very strong finish in order to do it
-New Mexico @ Fresno State (Mountain West) – New Mexico pretty much needs to win out in order to have any real shot at an at-large, and even then they will likely need some help
-Texas A&M @ Oklahoma (SEC) – TAMU just snapped a four game losing streak and has another winnable road game tonight. They need it because their next three opponents are really tough
-Pacific @ Gonzaga (West Coast) – Gonzaga should roll at home and stay within range of a protected seed
-UCF @ Utah (Big 12) – UCF has not been good on the road and even though Utah is nowhere near the tournament adding any sort of a road win to their profile will make it look better
-Santa Clara @ San Francisco (West Coast) – Santa Clara is straddling the bubble and can’t afford to lose this one. It’s a rivalry game against a talented San Francisco team that is talented, but that’s undearchieved a little bit. Still, they may be way up for this one
OTR WATCH: (I think you meant Under The Radar Griggs, not Over The Radar)
-NC Central @ Howard (MEAC) – Howard is the best overall team in the MEAC and may be good enough to win out through the MEAC Tournament
-UAlbany @ UMBC (America East) – UMBC is in 1st place in the AEast and has a path to getting home court advantage in the conference tournament
-Marshall @ Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt) – in a league where every day of play feels like there are cataclysmic shifts, Marshall is now in a tie for 1st place, but only has a 1 game lead over the 5th place team and has a tough road game today
-Navy @ Army (Patriot League) – Navy has clinched 1st place, but still wants to beat their rival on the road today
-Penn @ Yale (Ivy League) – Yale is trying to hang on to their one game lead with just three games to play
-Long Island @ Mercyhurst (NEC) – Long Island barely escaped the other night, but got the win. They can clinch 1st place outright with a win today, which means home court advantage in the conference tournament
-SIUE @ Tennessee State (Ohio Valley) – Tennessee State finds themselves in 1st place after a crazy couple of weeks. They should hold on to get this one at home today
-UNC Wilmington @ Campbell (CAA) – UNCW is having a fantastic year and should be able to hold on to their lead in the CAA
-East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro (SoCon) – ETSU can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win today
-Troy @ South Alabama (Sun Belt) – another big game in the completely logjammed SBC. A win for South Alabama could put them into 1st place. A loss could knock them down to 8th place. Troy could fall as low as 5th place with a loss. And this conference has the super-extended ladder format for its tournament
-SEMO @ Little Rock (Ohio Valley) – SEMO is in a tie for 1st place and could be in for a battle this afternoon. It seems like every game in this conference has been a battle
-Western Kentucky @ Liberty (Conference USA) – Liberty appeared to be dead in their game against FIU on Thursday, but they somehow forced OT and then somehow held on to win to stay unbeaten in the league. They an clinch 1st place outright with a win today
-Morehead State @ Western Illinois (Ohio Valley) – Morehead State is the third team that’s tied for 1st right now. They have what should be an easy win against a Western Illinois team that’s already been eliminated from the conference tournament
-Eastern Washington @ Portland State (Big Sky) – Portland State can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win today
-Alabama A&M @ Bethune Cookman (SWAC) – Cookman has a two game lead in the SWAC standings with just four games remaining, so they are very close to clinching
-Nicholls @ Stephen F Austin (Southland) – SFA has a two game lead over McNeese in the SLC standings with just four games remaining
-Vermont @ NJIT (America East) – NJIT has a one game lead over Vermont and is trying to keep pace with UMBC
-Indiana State @ Belmont (Missouri Valley) – Belmont can clinch 1st place outright with a win tonight and will be a very dangerous team in the Round of 64 if they can win the auto-bid.
-UC San Diego @ UC Irvine (Big West) – UC Irvine is now atop the Big West standings and should be able to hold serve in this one
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Friday, February 20th
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to fill in the weekly bracket for Hoops HD. This is not to be confused with what our colleague Jon Teitel does every week when he attempts to guess the Selection Committee; rather, this is who Stalica feels should be in the field as of games played through last night. This is what he came up with:
First Four Out: Auburn, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, San Diego State
Worth A Look: UCLA, Santa Clara, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Stanford
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– With UConn having taken a couple of losses in the past week, the Huskies have now fallen off of the 1 line and Iowa State has stormed into their place. Wins against Kansas and Houston will do that for you, and that’s on top of a profile that already featured a blowout win at Purdue.
– I still have Texas Tech as a 3 seed for now (especially with three wins against potential #1 seeds), but the makeup of the team changed for the worse with JT Toppin’s season-ending injury earlier this week. We’ll see in the next few games as to whether or not they’re able to maintain their spot in this territory.
– NC State and Miami got off to slow starts, but I have been very impressed with each team of late. They’re playing with a sense of urgency that was missing at the beginning of the year. Teams like Georgia and UCF finally showed likewise earlier this week, but they are by no means safe.
– I had a tough time trying to figure out what to do with Auburn; they have a bunch of great wins on their profile, but 12 losses is just one too many (even with the #1 strength of schedule) right now. They have the quality of wins to be in the top half of the bracket, but not the quantity.
– I’ve finally put Ohio State into my First Four Out; while the Buckeyes quietly have put together a few wins against the NCAA Tournament field, they’ve all been at home. They need to start winning games outside of Columbus ASAP.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-Stalica knows this, but did not say it. Michigan is in Philadelphia because they have requested to be sent there if they are the overall #1 seed even though Buffalo is closer. One of the perks of being the overall #1 is they will send you wherever you want whether it’s the closest site or not.
-I have been really rough on Ohio State all season long. In fact, I’ve dismissed anyone who thought they should be included as having brain trauma. But…I gotta admit…they’ve looked really good in their last couple of games. They look like an NCAA Tournament team, and if they play like that the rest of the way I think they will get the wins they need to make the field.
-This happens every year, and I get that it happens every year, and I get HOW it happens every year, but nevertheless…if I was a 5 seed in this bracket, and I had my choice of facing any team on the 9 line or any team on the 12 line, I think I’d actually rather play the 9 seeds.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD: