HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with Part 1 of our 3-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for 10 conference tourneys getting underway this week. Tweet us if you have any comments, and check back later this week for Part 2 and next week for Part 3.
Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Central Arkansas (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-8
Location: Jacksonville, FL
2025 tourney champ: Lipscomb (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: Each of past 9 champs was top-2 seed
Talk about a 2-horse race: Austin Peay started the season 4-5 but won 17 of their final 20, while Central Arkansas started 7-10 but won 13 of their final 14. When in doubt, look to the head-to-head competition: snake the Bears beat the Governors by 5 last Wednesday in their only meeting of the year, we will not re-elect the Governors. Coach John Shulman might not even be the best mid-major coach named “J. Shulman” in his own family (as his nephew Jeremy Shulman won 21 games this year as head coach at UT Martin), but it is hard to top his turnaround: he lost 24 games last year in his 1st season in Conway, but seems an easy pick for ASUN COY after winning 19 this year. His team could use some better interior defense, as their 56.8 2P% allowed is bottom-25 in the nation, but at least they have Camren Hunter back to put the ball in the basket. After being named 2021 conference ROY with the Bears, he later ended up at Wisconsin where he made exactly ONE shot all of last year, but now that he is back in the south his results have headed north: 19.7 PPG/2 3PM/1.4 SPG.
Big South tourney predicted champ: High Point (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-8
Location: Johnson City, TN
2025 tourney champ: High Point (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 8 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were #1 seed
How can you possibly go against High Point at this point? 27 wins in 2024, 29 wins in 2025, and 27 (and counting) in 2026. This tourney also likes #1 seeds, so the Panthers are my pick. Flynn Clayman has set the bar pretty darn high in his 1st year as a head coach, but instead of escaping to a power conference he signed a new 5-year deal last week. They do not have a lot of size (as nobody in their starting lineup is taller than 6’8”), but they still get buckets near the basket as their 57.6 FG% inside the arc is top-30 in the nation. For those of you who do not like advanced metrics, High Point’s offense might not be the most efficient, but it matters not since they are #3 in the nation with 90.7 PPG. I also have a soft spot for Arizona transfer Conrad Martinez, as the Spaniard is leading the team with 3.6 APG despite coming off the bench.
Horizon tourney predicted champ: Green Bay (#5 seed)
Dates: March 2-10
Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN
2025 tourney champ: Robert Morris (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 7 of past 10 champs were not #1 seed
I do like Penn alumni so I am dying to select my fellow Quaker Andy Toole, the head coach at Robert Morris (or as the folks at HoopsHD like to call them: Morris Robert). However, this tourney seems to keep having a new champ every March so I will go with another notable coach: Doug Gottlieb and the Phoenix. It seems like he is in the news every other week for all the wrong reasons, and his team’s defense leaves a LOT to be desired (around 300th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency), but that gets balanced out by having 4 starters who each average double-digits. Their lineup is a little short with none of their top-6 scorers standing taller than 6’6”, yet they only allow 31.2 RPG (which is top-30 in the nation). The X-factor is their 3-PT shooting: their top-3 shooters from 3-PT range (Marcus Hall/Preston Ruedinger/Caden Wilkins) have each knocked down at least 44 shots from behind the arc this season.
NEC predicted champ: Le Moyne (#4 seed)
Dates: March 4-10
Location: Campus sites
2025 tourney champ: St. Francis (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 8 different champs in past 8 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not top-2 seed
This tourney does not love top-2 seeds and LIU split its season series with Le Moyne so let’s go with the Dolphins. They started conference play 6-2, then dropped 3 in a row, but it appears that they have finally got things back on track. 1 of the perks of starting a 6’9” big man in Shilo Jackson is that their opponents only shoot 46.1 FG% inside the arc (top-15 in the nation). The other perk is that if the opposing defense focuses on Shilo, he has 3 teammates who are also scoring double-digits on the offensive end. This is also Le Moyne’s Super Bowl: while they are ineligible for the NCAA tourney, they can still compete in this tourney. Best of all, with a championship on the line, how can you not love a team whose coach is named (Nate) Champion!
OVC predicted champ: Tennessee State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-7
Location: Evansville, IN
2025 tourney champ: SIUE (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
There has been a different tourney champ during each of the past 4 years so let’s make it 5-for-5 with the Tigers. Coach Nolan Smith is having a fabulous debut as a head coach and knows a thing or 2 about winning games in March: as a player at Duke he went 8-1 in the ACC tourney, made the Sweet 16 in 2009 and 20011, and played all 40 minutes in the 2010 NCAA title game 2-PT win over Butler. Tennessee State’s defense is not exactly shutting opponents down (74.2 PPG allowed) but it is an active defense as their 9.5 SPG is top-10 in the country. This league is wide-open with 6 different teams who finished with 11+ conference wins, but not many of them have a 2-headed scoring combo that can compare with 6’6” Aaron Nkrumah and 6’6” Travis Harper, who are combining for 35 PPG/10 RPG. Your kids might prefer “6-7”, but I am quite content with 6’6”!
Patriot predicted champ: Navy (#1 seed)
Dates: March 3-11
Location: Campus sites
2025 tourney champ: American (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Colgate has made title game in 7 of past 8 years and won it 5 times
Seeding: Each of past 9 champs were top-3 seed
Colgate, led by my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, has appeared in the title game during 7 of the past 8 years and won 5 of them. However, the Midshipmen are having 1 of the top-5 seasons in their 119-year history, so all aboard! This tourney likes top-3 seeds so Navy 1st-year coach Jon Perry has nothing to fear in being the favorite. They started the season slow with a 4-5 record, but since November they have won a ridiculous 21 of 22 with just a road loss at American in January. Their defense will keep them in any game as their 63.3 PPG allowed is #5 in the nation. They also have a great inside-outside combo in 5’11” PG Austin Benigni and 6’11” C Aidan Kehoe, who have combined to average 34 PPG/14 RPG/7 APG: if David Robinson was “The Admiral” then I guess that makes the current 2 stars “Master and Commander”?!
SoCon predicted champ: ETSU (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-9
Location: Asheville, NC
2025 tourney champ: Wofford (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were #1-seed
I know I cannot select the #1 seed to win every tourney, but this tourney likes #1 seeds almost as much as the Puppet likes Tim Miles, so the pick is ETSU. Coach Brooks Savage had winning seasons during each of his 1st 2 years in Johnson City, but the 3rd time has been the charm: since finished non-conference play with a 3-game losing streak in mid-December, the Buccaneers have put together not 1, not 2, not 3, but rather 4 separate winning streaks of at least 3 games. The only cause for concern is playing down to their competition, as they had home losses to Jacksonville State/Samford and a road loss at Presbyterian. The other X-factor is Western Carolina: the Catamounts are only a 5-seed but somehow swept ETSU in January, so if their rematch takes place in the semifinals on Sunday then they could certainly play spoiler.
Summit predicted champ: North Dakota State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-8
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2025 tourney champ: Omaha (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 champs since 2012 are North Dakota State/Omaha/Oral Roberts/South Dakota State
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were #1 seed
This tourney loves #1 seeds, and North Dakota State has made this title game an amazing 9 times in the past 13 years, so they are the pick to click. The Bison stubbed 2 of their toes to start this season with road losses at Oregon State/UC Davis, then flipped the switch and have won 24 of 29 since then. They might not be spectacular at any specific stat category but are good at just about everything, especially their scoring balance thanks to having 6 different guys scoring 9-14 PPG. Coach Dave Richman won this tourney 3 times during a 6-year span from 2015-2020 so he knows what it takes to win 3 games in 3 days with a title on the line. I do not usually have a rooting interest for any teams in the Summit, but as I spent several years of my childhood in Phoenix cheering for Dan Majerle, watching his son Max try to make the NCAA tourney (something his dad only did once with Central Michigan in 1987) makes me feel nostalgic…and old.
Sun Belt predicted champ: Coastal Carolina (#3 seed)
Dates: March 3-9
Location: Pensacola, FL
2025 tourney champ: Troy (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were not #1 seed
This should be 1 of the most entertaining tourneys of the week with a ridiculous 6 different teams tied for 2nd place in the standings at 11-7. This tourney does not like top seeds but it does like new blood so I think the Chanticleers will take the title. Coach Justin Gray had a rough start last year, losing 22 games in his 1st year in Conway, but looks like conference COY material this year after taking a team that started 8-9 and finishing the regular season by winning 11 of his final 14 games. Thanks to the infamous “Stairway to 7” bracket, Coastal Carolina will only have this entire week off before starting their postseason on Saturday, and only needs to win 3 games to make their dreams come true. The bad news is that they have trouble scoring inside the arc (46 2P% is bottom-20 in the nation), but the good news is that their opponents have similar problems (45 2P% allowed is #9 in the nation). They also have 1 of the best offensive backcourt trios in the nation, as Joshua Beadle/AJ Dancler/RaSheed Jones have combined for 48 PPG/14 RPG/8 APG).
WCC predicted champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-10
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2025 tourney champ: Gonzaga (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 21 titles in past 28 years and finished 2nd each of the other 7 times
Seeding: 21 of past 22 champs were top-2 seed
Gonzaga coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 25 straight NCAA tourney appearances (not counting the COVID cancellation), 23 regular season titles, 19 conference tourney titles, while being named conference COY a ridiculous 14 times. I got burned last year by picking St. Mary’s, but I have learned my lesson and will keep picking the Zags as long as Few is standing on the sideline. If you thought they would fall apart after Braden Huff went down with a left knee injury in January, then think again, as they have won 11 of 13 during his absence. The star of the show remains Graham Ike: the 2-time all-conference 1st-team player and defending conference tourney MVP has somehow gotten even better as a SR: 19.7 PPG/8.3 RPG/56.4 FG%.
