Hoops HD

This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Staff Bracket here at Hoops HD – this is not to be confused with the bracket that our colleagues Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller do where they try to guess the Selection Committee. Rather, this is what Stalica feels the bracket should look like after this checkpoint of the season.

Without further ado, here is the bracket:

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Charleston (if they were at-large) – next in line would be Arizona State

Worth a cursory look: Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Utah, VCU, Seton Hall

COMMENTS FROM JOHN:

– Now it starts to get a little harder picking the four #1 seeds. I don’t think Kansas State continues their current pace as the Big 12 gauntlet rears its ugly head, but they do in my mind deserve the final #1 spot over teams like Arizona and Houston for now. Houston, like Gonzaga, has been playing with fire in a lot of their games and were fortunate not to have losses like Kent State and Cincinnati on their profile.

– Illinois is a little schizo, but you could also argue that wins like UCLA and Texas away from home offset some of the stink of some of their blowout losses like Penn State and Missouri. Not unexpected considering the Illini are a pretty young team.

– I expect to get skewered for having teams like Saint Mary’s and San Diego State lower than most of my colleagues, but they don’t have a plethora of wins against teams in this field. San Diego State, Duke and North Carolina can’t be pleased with Ohio State’s collapse this season.

– Teams like Creighton and West Virginia have really stabilized their profiles quite a bit the past couple of weeks; a win or two away from home would really help solidify them further. Arkansas and Wisconsin are going in the wrong direction and could be in bigger trouble if and when bid thieves surface during the Championship Fortnight.

COMMENTS FROM CHAD:

– I do NOT agree with Alabama still being on the 1 seed line.  The Tide now have a loss to a team that did not make John’s field.  Further, their only true top-caliber win was at Houston.  David Griggs like to say that road wins are great because it is so hard to win at certain buildings.  Quite frankly, winning at Houston has not been difficult this year.  The Cougars now have a home loss to Temple and single-digit wins at home over Cincinnati, Kent State, South Florida and UCF — none of which are inside the bubble.  Houston only deserves their great ranking because they are a dominant 8-0 AWAY from home.  I personally would rank Tennessee, Kansas State, Houston and even Baylor higher than the Tide.

– Speaking of Baylor, it is a complete sin for this team to be a 4 seed.  The Bears have won 6 in a row, have beaten UCLA, Gonzaga and Kansas (all of whom John rated higher than them) and have no bad losses.  I could honestly make a case for them as the fourth #1 seed right now.

– I do not understand Providence as a 5 seed.  The Friars are a good team, but they have no wins away from home against anyone in the field.  They have only beaten two tournament teams overall (UConn and Marquette), and both wins came at home.  They need to be a few lines lower.

– Clemson belongs in a 7/10 game, but probably as the 10 seed.  They almost suffered their third Tier 4 loss this weekend at home to a bad Georgia Tech team.  I get that first place in the ACC looks flashy, but a backloaded conference schedule will likely have this team sweating out Selection Sunday.

– Maryland as an 8 seems a stretch to me as well.  The Terps have exactly one road win, and it was at NET 337 Louisville.  I need to see something more away from home before I can justify giving this team the right to wear white in the first round.

– I have belied all season that Missouri’s wins and record were a fluke, but no longer.  After their huge win over Iowa State this weekend, I am completely buying stock in the Tigers.  They have no bad losses and have won a couple of road games (and a pair of neutral court ones as well).  I would have Mizzou 2-3 seed lines higher than a 9.

– Arkansas would be my first team out right now.  The Razorbacks have been hurt by injuries, but there is no current sign of this team getting healthy again.  They have not won a single road game and only have 2 wins against anyone in the field.  Couple that with bad losses to LSU and Vanderbilt, and I think the NIT awaits.

– I would also have USC and Kentucky above the First Four, probably by a couple of lines each.  USC’s win over UCLA (combined with how close they came earlier this year at UCLA) completely changes the complexion of their profile.  And Kentucky really only has one bad loss to go with one of the best wins anyone will get all season (at Tennessee).  I expect the Wildcats to start piling up wins and climbing the seed lists with their remaining schedule being a lot easier than the first half of conference play was.

– I think decent cases can be made for Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State being in the field, and a weak one for Texas A&M.  However, all in all I am not offended by John’s choice of teams to include — my biggest issues had to do with seeding decisions.  At least he did way better than the bracket Griggs posted a few weeks back!

COMMENTS FROM DAVID:

-A case can be made that Kansas State doesn’t belong on the #1 line.  A strong case.  In fact if I were trying to guess the actual Selection Committee I probably wouldn’t have them on the #1 line because I know the committee will gag on how weak their OOC schedule was, but I LOVE how they have TWO wins against likely protected seeds on the road.  To me, that would put them ahead of an Arizona team that, while good, doesn’t have any wins as good as that, and has their share of questionable losses (particularly Wazzu at home).

-I kind of believe in the Elo Chess concept.  If you don’t know what that is, basically it means you can’t move up by beating teams (or I guess chess players in terms of ELO) that are behind you, and you can’t get knocked down by losing to teams that are ahead of you.  I don’t think that concept should be applied absolutely, but I do think it should be applied to a point.  Kentucky lost to Kansas.  I know it was at home, but it was still to Kansas.  I don’t think that would drop them all that far, yet everyone now seems to have them just barely in the field, or not in the field at all.

-I don’t know what to make of Charleston.  I do think the real committee will take them if they win out, but lose in the conference tournament.  What I’m not sure of is whether or not I personally agree.  John has them just outside his bubble, but in the field as the auto-bid winner.  They have about three wins that I would rate as (at best) decent.  Every other team on the bubble will almost assuredly have better wins than CofC does, and that includes everyone Stalica selected, and even a few that he didn’t.  That’s tough.  But, I guess it doesn’t matter.  An outright first place team with just one league loss and a reasonably healthy NET will almost always be selected by the real committee.  In fact they’d start the process off on the Nomination Board by virtue of being a first place team, and it isn’t likely that they would ever be removed.