David Dorman’s comments on the bracket are posted below…
NOTES ON THE BRACKET (From David Dorman):
We are under 50 days until Selection Sunday and there are a ton of games this week that will shape this year’s bracket.
I had a really hard time placing the teams right on the cut line. The resumes look similar. Some good wins at home, not much on the road. With teams right on the cut line I like to look for road wins that are tough to get. I like to see a team win in buildings where most visitors walk out losers. Show me something on your resume no one or few others have. Northwestern went to Bloomington and beat Indiana and went to East Lansing and beat Michigan State. Only Northwestern and Purdue have gone into Michigan State this year and left victorious.Northwestern is the only team in the country this year to win at Indiana this year. To me this shows Northwestern can win big tough games. I gave the Wildcats one of my last at large berths because of these road wins.
The last 4 schools to make my bracket today were:
Maryland
West Virginia
Arizona State
Northwestern
Just missed my bracket:
Penn State
Pitt
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
There are 3 Big Ten teams and 3 Big 12 teams on those 2 lists. These teams can’t afford to lose at home and pulling off a stunner on the road is highly advised.
I had Houston on the 1 line until last night’s home stunning loss to Temple. The Tennessee Volunteers moved up to 1 line with Houston’s loss.
LOOK OUT 5 seeds, the best under the radar teams are coming after you. Oral Roberts, Charleston, Kent State all currently sit on the 12 line and are very capable of winning multiple games in the NCAA Tournament. If any of these 3 team’s stumble in their conference tournaments there will be long and difficult decisions in the committee room. Should they receive an at large bid? What seed line do they deserve? They all have resumes worthy of at large bids.
Maybe the best under the radar team is Dusty May’s Owl’s from Florida Atlantic. They are 19-1 and running away with Conference USA’s regular season title. I have them as a 7 seed today and I could see them receiving a 5 or 6 seed if they win out. 1 loss will not change my thoughts on this team, they are at large worthy today and a loss or two won’t change that.
Teams that have risen in my bracket lately:
Kansas State
Marquette
TCU
St. Mary’s
Indiana
Rutgers
Iowa State
Teams in my bracket but cold lately:
Illinois
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
Arkansas
Huge games for the bracket this week:
Wisconsin @ Northwestern 1/23
Ohio State @ Illinois 1/24
Kansas State @ Iowa State 1/24
Xavier @ UConn 1/25
Iowa @ Michigan State 1/26
UCLA @ USC 1/26
Enjoy the games, Selection Sunday is coming fast.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
– I have said it before and I will say it again — I just don’t get all the love for Tennessee’s profile. The Vols have only one win over a team solidly in the field (Kansas — so it is a very good win). They have a loss to a team that is near the bottom of the at-large field (Kentucky) and a team nowhere near the field (Colorado). That’s a solid profile, and a top 4 seed, but nowhere near the 1 line in my opinion.
– I like TCU better than the 5 line, maybe as high as a 3 seed. Yes, they have a very bad home loss to Northwestern State, but they won AT Kansas, AT Baylor, and beat Kansas State as well. That is three wins over protected seeds, to go along with wins over Iowa and Providence. Quite frankly, that is way more than Tennessee has done.
– I think Boise State belongs in the field, but not as an 8 seed. The Broncos have three losses to teams that are not in the field (one is a horrible one at home to South Dakota State). They do not have a single win over a team that actually made the field. Yes, their 7 Tier 2A wins is impressive, but that gets you in as an 11 or 12 seed at best, and probably going to Dayton for the First Four.
– Illinois has not lost to anyone that missed David’s field other than his top team out, Penn State. They have neutral court wins over UCLA and Texas. That is deserving of several seed lines higher than a 9. I could see them as high as a 5 or 6 seed right now.
– I also feel Wisconsin is undervalued. The Badgers don’t have any really bad losses (most of them were to teams that made the field). They won at Iowa and at Marquette as well. I think they deserve to be 3-4 seed lines higher than a 10.
– I really cannot argue too much with the choices of teams. I probably would not have Ohio State in right now, but it is hard to pick someone to replace them. I like that Dorman left Pitt out — the Panthers are fading fast. All in all, I think this was a good bracket — way better than the nonsense that Griggs posted last week.
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
-Dorman was right in that Houston was not going to be a #1 seed after a bedwetting at home against Temple. I also agree with Chad in that it should not have been Tennessee getting the last #1 right now. I would actually have made the case for Kansas State given that they now have 2 road wins against protected seeds Texas and Baylor.
-Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that probably looks like a 5 seed when you see them play in person, but when I look at their resume they scream 7 or 8 seed to me. Their win against San Diego State is the only team that I feel confident putting in the field, and they also have losses against Colorado State and Washington that are eye-gougingly bad this year. Maybe split the difference and make them a 6?
-Arizona State picked a bad week to go winless; they are now 0-3 against 3 of the top teams in the Pac-12 at home (losses against USC, UCLA and Arizona). Now they almost have to get a road win against at least one of those teams just to feel safely in the field; I’m getting a lot more bearish against the Sun Devils. But not as much as Teitel probably is.
-We talk about 12 seeds being giant killers; #13 Marshall and #14 Seattle would also be good upset picks in a field like this. #14 Princeton would be pushing your luck.
