Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

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-Kansas picked up a quality road win at West Virginia.  On the surface this may not have looked like much, but to win a true road game against what appears to be a solid tournament team without really even having to sweat is a HUGE statement.  Kansas is atop our seedlist, which is where they belong.

-Washington State is deceivingly dangerous.  They won’t make the NCAA Tournament (at least I don’t think), but there are some really good teams  that have really struggled with them over the past several weeks.  Utah needed overtime to beat them, UNLV barely escaped, Baylor barely escaped, UCLA won by just a single point, USC LOST to them, and Arizona State had to sweat them out at home.  Yesterday Arizona, the #5 team in the nation who we all thought had a chance to get a #1 seed, did more than just struggle.  They lost rather handily.  At home!  The final score was 84-71 and while Arizona did make some runs, at no point was Wazzu not in control of this game.  We will be discussing this phenomenon that is this Wazzu team tomorrow on the Hoops HD Report!  Hopefully our good friend and Hoops HD regular Rocco Miller from bracketeer.org is able join us

-Prior to the season starting, my pick to win it all was Kentucky.  I know this is almost impossible to believe, but I may not have been correct in making that pick.  It’s not that losing at Alabama is bad.  Alabama is a legit top ten team that beat Houston on the road.  But losing at Alabama in a game that resembled a buy game is objectively bad.  And having no wins of note is objectively bad.  We put Kentucky into our bracket on the Thursday night BRACKET RUNDOWN podcast.  I don’t know why (I was unable to join when it started), and if I’m able to join this week I will strongly argue against selecting them at all.  At no point his season has Kentucky looked like a top 40 team.

-Gonzaga once again had to sweat it out on the road, but once again held on for an 81-76 win at Santa Clara.  Santa Clara is a decent team, and while a top ten team should go on the road and win there, it’s more difficult to do than what most casual observers may realize.  Santa Clara is now 9-3 at home, and has a good chance of winning all the rest of their home games.

-Auburn needed a big win, and got one over a really good Arkansas team 72-59.  It was a home game for the Tigers, but it still gives their resume a nice boost, which they kind of needed.

-Duke almost lost at Boston College, but held on to win 65-64 after BC missed what would have been a game winning layup at the buzzer.  Duke has not been impressive this year.  They held on to win this one, but it hardly leaves you with that “WOW! THIS TEAM IS GOOD!” feeling.

-Iowa State picked up a huge 69-67 road win at TCU in a battle of top 25 teams.  That’s back to back road wins for the Cyclones, so their resume is looking much better than it was a week ago.  This was also their first win against a team that’s currently ranked, and since it came on the road that’s even bigger.

-Xavier just keeps winning and just keeps moving up the rankings and up our seedlist.  They picked up another nice road win against Villanova yesterday 88-80 and are looking more and more like a team that could end up as a protected seed.

-Kansas State finished off a huge week with yet another road win against a ranked team.  They knocked off Baylor in an overtime thriller 97-95.  K State was criticized for a somewhat weak out of conference schedule.  When you win two road games against ranked teams in a single week, you’ve had a hell of a week!!  Kansas State is now 14-1 on the year with some really high caliber wins on their profile, and perhaps it’s time to start taking seriously about them being in the hunt for a protected seed.

-UNLV picked up a really impressive road win at New Mexico 84-77.  New Mexico has now lost two in a row after a 14-0 start, and it may be time to start questioning whether nor not the 14-0 record was a bit of mirage.  This conference has a lot of teams that are floating around the bubble, and so far New Mexico really hasn’t shown out when they’ve faced any of them.

-I’ve been big on Kent State all season long, and yesterday they didn’t almost shoot themselves in the foot, but they nearly blew their entire face off.  They hung on to beat Miami OH 69-66 in a game that had they lost, their chances of landing inside the bubble may have been totally gone.

-Clemson and Pittsburgh was an awesome game between two teams that are better than expected and probably deserve more attention than what they were getting.  Believe it or not both were 4-0 in ACC play and the winner of this game was to be atop the standings.  Clemson picked up the win on the road in a 75-74 thriller in a game that was a bigger deal than what most were giving it credit for.  Clemson is now 13-3 on the season with a couple of decent wins, and one really good win, on their resume.

-Many were big on Utah State because of their bloated record, and they definitely deserved some attention, and while we were certainly giving them attention we weren’t ready to give them a ton of praise just yet.  And, after yesterday, we still aren’t.  Boise State (another team that deserves more attention than what they’re getting) absolutely blew Utah State out of the gym 82-59 and is now 12-4 overall with a chance of making a run at the bubble if they can keep playing like that throughout conference play.

-Every time I make up my mind that Utah is a solid team, they lose to a non-tournament team.  Yesterday they lost at home to Oregon 70-60, and once again we are questioning whether or not they belong in.  I guess they have a thing for bubbles or something.

-UAB lost a close game at Florida Atlantic earlier in the week, which was a missed opportunity at a much needed big win.  Yesterday they lost at Florida International, which is a very damaging setback.  As talented as UAB is, and as good as they are, their resume just doesn’t show out like it needs to.  Unless they run the table, it’s looking more and more than one of the games they’ll need tow in is that last Conference USA Tournament game.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-NORTHWESTERN AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Northwestern has a fairly decent resume and is well within reach of the bubble.  This would be their biggest win of the year so far if they were able to pull it off, and would almost assuredly move them inside the bubble.  Indiana is having a good year and is looking to bounce back from a loss at Iowa earlier in the week.

-IOWA AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  Rutgers is playing out of their minds all of a sudden and has another winnable game at home today.  Iowa has gone over a cliff, but they did win their last game at home against Indiana so perhaps they’re starting to snap out of the funk they’re in, but this is a very tall order today.

-OHIO STATE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Both teams (so far) have looked like tournament teams, and any win against a tournament team looks good on the resume, so this is an opportunity for both of them.  Ohio State nearly knocked off Purdue in their last game, and is looking for what would just be their second true road win of the season.

-HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI (American).  Houston is on pace to earn a #1 seed.  If they win out, they’re almost assured of it, and they are certainly good enough to win out.  They may be challenged a little bit today, but it’s not likely.

-WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac 12).  Arizona State is well within reach of making the NCAA Tournament, but despite the 12-3 record it still seems like they have a lot of work to do when you look at their resume, so this is a game where they need to hold serve.

-PURDUE AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  Penn State is having a good year, but we still have them a little bit outside our bubble.  Having said that, I think it goes without saying that a win today on the road at Purdue would certainly move them INSIDE of our bubble.  In fact, very safely inside.  Purdue, despite the loss to Rutgers, is still in a position to get a #1 seed.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-SMU @UCF (American) – I like this UCF team and still think there is at least a decent change that they can play their way inside the bubble, but they need to hold serve in games like this one to have any chance of doing that
-Iona @ Quinnipiac (MAAC) – Iona has a very slim chance of landing inside the bubble, but they basically need to win out in order to do it, and this might be one of their tougher remaining games of the season
-UMass Lowell @ Albany (America East) – A win for Lowell gets them to 15-2 on the year

For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-CREIGHTON AT UCONN (Big East).  Creighton has started to string together wins, but this is a MUCH higher level win than anything they’ve managed so far.  UConn is trying to snap a tough two game losing streak of their own.

-TEXAS AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  Oklahoma State is starting to look better, and perhaps evens starting to look like an NCAA Tournament team, but they’ve still got a lot of work to do.  A win today over a really strong Texas team would be a good start.  It would be a solid road win for Texas as well, who despite some off the court issues still look like they could end up as a protected seed.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  I’m really impressed with what Providence has done in the early part of conference play and think they’ve already indicated they can be a force in the Big East.  Their resume is currently a little bit flimsy due to a really weak OOC schedule, but if they keep going like they have been they should be able to shore it up.  Saint John’s has dropped four in a row and is falling further and further outside the bubble.

-KENTUCKY AT ALABAMA (SEC).  Kentucky has no real notable wins, and while our mock committee took them in our recent staff bracket, I would argue that as of now Kentucky doesn’t belong in the field at all.  Now, if they can win today, then they will ABSOLUTELY belong in there.  Alabama is ranked in the top 10 and at times has looked so good it makes me think they could even end up as a #1 seed if everything falls right.

-GEORGIA AT FLORIDA (SEC).  No one is really talking about Georgia, but they’re 11-3, they just beat a pretty good Auburn team, and this looks to be a winnable road game for them.   So…let’s start talking about them.

-WISCONSIN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten).  Wisconsin just keeps winning games, keeps making their resume look better and better, and keeps climbing the rankings.  Illinois had a huge win against Texas back on December 6th, and has done absolutely nothing since then other than win a couple of home buy games.  This is a tall order, but Illinois is in a tailspin and they need some sort of notable win to pull themselves out of it.

-IOWA STATE AT TCU (Big 12).  Another Big 12 match-up between two top 25 teams.  We’re going to see this a lot between now and the end of the year.  TCU just picked up a really nice win at Baylor and is looking like they could end up as a protected seed.  A road win like this for Iowa State would give them a huge boost as well.

-CHARLOTTE AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Conference USA).  It’s past time to start talking about Florida Atlantic as a legit NCAA Tournament team that, if they keep this up, should go in on the first ballot.  They just beat a pretty good UAB team earlier in the week, and can improve to 14-1 on the year with a win today.  Charlotte won’t be a cakewalk, but FAU should be able to beat them.

-MICHIGAN AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Both teams could end up in the NCAA Tournament.  Hell, by the time the season is over both could be in the top 25, but at present day both still have a ton of work to do.  Michigan has looked good in their last two games, but both were at home.  Going on the road to face a rival is at a bit of a higher level.  Michigan State has won five straight, but every single win other than perhaps Penn State came against an objectively bad team, so this is a bigger test than what they’ve had for a while.

-CLEMSON AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  Prior to the season started this was never a game I expected to be highlighting, but Clemson is off to a 4-0 start in ACC play with a 12-3 overall record and some pretty good wins on their resume.  Pitt is actually showing signs of life and seems to be improving as the season progresses.  They’ve had back to back home wins against North Carolina and Virginia and has a chance to pick up another big one today.

-NEVADA AT SAN JOSE STATE (Mountain West).  Nevada is another team that’s squarely on our bubble.  This will be a bit of a tough road test for them, but San Jose State has a pulse this year and it’s a win that Nevada should get some credit for if they’re able to pull it off.

-XAVIER AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  I do think Villanova is getting better, and is good enough to get the wins that they need between now and the end in order to make it into the field, but they’ve still got a lot of work to do.  A win today would be a nice start.  Xavier has looked so good that you have to wonder if they could end up as a protected seed.  A road win in a game like this would certainly help their case.

-KANSAS AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12).  This will not be an easy road game at all, but it’s still a road game that Kansas is good enough to win.  West Virginia is a solid tournament team that has some room to move up the seedlist, and a win today would enable them to do that.

-KANSAS STATE AT BAYLOR (Big 12).  More and more people are starting to believe in this Kansas State team.  After questioning their record because of their strength of schedule, their last two wins came against West Virginia and at Texas, which indicates they can do more than just beat cupcakes.  They can beat protected seeds on the road.  This is another big road test against a Baylor team who’s in the top 25, but that isn’t having quite as good a year as many were expecting and could really use a win like this to help build themselves up a little more.

-LSU AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  At 12-2 LSU is starting to make a little noise, but they need to make a little more.  A road win against a decent (but not great) TAMU team should help some.

-UTAH STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  Both teams are on our bubble, both need to string together wins and add some quality wins to their resume, and because of that both of them could really use this win today.  Utah State has just two losses on the year, but they don’t really have any wins that are as good as this one would be today.

-OKLAHOMA AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12).  Both teams are tournament caliber teams, but both have room to move up the seedlist and this is a resume building opportunity.

-NC STATE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  Similar to the previous game, both teams appear to be tournament caliber teams (NC State sure looked it the other night against Duke), but both have room to move up the seedlist, and this is a good resume building opportunity.

-ARKANSAS AT AUBURN (SEC).  While both teams are ranked, this game has a bit of a pivotal feel to it for Auburn.  They haven’t done much this year to deserve that ranking, and if they don’t win today chances are they’ll lose it.  Arkansas is coming off an exciting win against Missouri, but they’ve only played one true road game this season and they didn’t win it, so this is a test for them as well.

-UNLV AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West).  Both teams have bloated records, and while they have a few decent wins, neither team has that many and both could really use this one.  This game has the feel of two teams that are hovering around the bubble and trying to get inside of it, which is what makes this so important for both of them.

-GONZAGA AT SANTA CLARA (West Coast).  Gonzaga survived a scare the other night at San Francisco, and will be tested again tonight by a Santa Clara team that’s off to a very respectable 14-4 start and who could really get the committee’s attention if they’re able to pull off the upset tonight.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-Notre Dame @ North Carolina (ACC) – UNC looks to be safely in the field, but nowhere near a protected seed at the moment.  They don’t want to drop a game at home to a non-NIT team
-Vanderbilt @ Missouri (SEC). – Should be a winnable home game for Mizzou
-Duke @ Boston College (ACC) – should be a rather easy road win for Duke, and it would be their first of the season
-East Carolina @ Memphis (American) – simply put, this is a winnable game for Memphis, and they need to win it
-Georgetown @ Marquette (Big East) – a winnable home game for Marquette
-Ole Miss @ Mississippi State (SEC) – this is a rivalry game, so you don’t want to assume anything, but Mississippi State should be able to hold serve at home in this one
-Wake Forest @ Louisville (ACC) – should be a winnable road game for a Wake team that’s hovering around our bubble right now
-Southern Miss @ UL Monroe (Sun Belt) – Southern Miss needs to bounce back from a loss to Louisiana from earlier in the week.  They can still get inside the bubble, but are running out of strikes
-Tennessee @ South Carolina (SEC) – I love how Tennessee is playing, and this should be a winnable road game for the Vols
-Kent State @ Miami OH (MAC) – I still think Kent State is good enough to run through the MAC and get inside the bubble
-San Diego State @ Wyoming (Mountain West) – San Diego State is a top 25 caliber team that for whatever reason the voters aren’t voting for right now.  This should be a rather easy road win for them.  Although, you know what they say about Wyoming!  No one gets higher!
-Washington State @ Arizona (Pac 12) – Wazzu has been playing better lately, but not so much better that I think they can stay on the court with Arizona on the road
-Syracuse @ Virginia (ACC) – it’s a team that’s below the NIT visiting a team that appears to be a solid protected seed
-Delaware @ Charleston (Colonial) –  Charleston will land inside the bubble so long as they don’t stub their toes too many times in games like this between now and the end
-Tarleton @ Sam Houston (WAC) – Sam Houston needs to blow through the rest of their schedule in order to have any shot at landing inside the bubble
-North Texas @ Middle Tennessee (Conference USA) – I think there is a chance North Texas could make a run at the bubble, but they basically need to dominate the rest of their schedule
-Oregon @ Utah (Pac 12) – Utah is inside the bubble, but could certainly stand to move a lot further inside of it.  They need to hold serve in this one today
-UAB at FIU (Conference USA) – UAB is a super talented team that could do some damage if they make the NCAA Tournament, but they may be out of strikes.  Anything short of winning out will probably mean needing the auto-bid
-Portland @ Saint Mary’s (West Coast) – in order to end up inside the bubble, SMC can’t afford to lose home games to teams that are nowhere near it