Bracket Projections (JNG Edition) – Dec 12th

Posted on December 12, 2022 by David Griggs

We sort of switch things up with each week’s Bracket Projections, especially in the weeks prior to Christmas.  This week we are featuring our remarkably accurate JNG RANKINGS, which are the creation of Joby Fortson.  Basically, he set out to create a metric that can accurately predict what the actual selection committee is going to do.  I’m personally not sure how someone can quantify a process that is done by a committee, but Joby has pretty much found a way to do it!!

The Bracket is below, and Joby’s comments are below that.

COMMENTS FROM JOBY:

So, what conferences come out well.  The SEC sends 7 teams as well as the BIG but who comes next?  Why the Mountain West!  While this will almost assuredly not hold it does show as we enter conference play that like last year, the Mountain West will get more than a pair of teams in.  Through a combination of producing  overall strong records (3 teams – Utah St, New Mexico & UNLV are undefeated) and high NET ratings (all 6 of those teams are in the top 52 with one of the strongest of those teams IMO, San Diego St, the one at 52. Those bids seemingly will come out off the hide of their western counterparts parts as the Pac-12 produces 4 (Arizona, UCLA, Utah and Arizona St) and the WCC sits at 2 (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s).  The A-10 also underperfroms with only 1 team barely in the at large pool.

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Happy Birthday! HoopsHD interviews former Eastern Illinois coach Rick Samuels

Posted on December 12, 2022 by Jon Teitel

Rick Samuels spent a quarter-century on the sideline for Eastern Illinois and had a lot of success: more than 350 wins, the 2001 Illinois Basketball Coaches Association D-1 Coach of the Year award, and the 2nd-longest D-1 tenure in the nation when he left in 2004 (behind only Jim Boeheim at Syracuse). Off the court, he made sure that most of his seniors completed their eligibility, as the Panthers were among the top 10% in the nation for graduation rate. HoopsHD got to chat with Rick about making a couple of NCAA tourneys and writing a couple of books. Today is Rick’s 74th birthday so let us be the 1st to wish him a happy 1!

You played basketball at Chadron State: how good a player were you back in the day, and how did you get into coaching? I was a decent player on a pretty good NAIA team. I was a PG who acted as a floor general. I always enjoyed being around sports teams so I volunteered to coach a 7th grade team, which got me started in the business.

You took over for Lynn Nance as head coach at Iowa State in January of 1980: how strange was it to make such a transition during the middle of the season? It was shocking: the other assistant and I were named co-head coaches but we did not consult with each other during games so it got to be entertaining. The kids rallied and we were able to upset a ranked Kansas State team and also win at Oklahoma.

In 1981 you became head coach at Eastern Illinois, where you stayed for almost 25 years: why did you take the job, and how were you able to stick around for such a long time? I went to Iowa State as a grad assistant before taking over and I struggled to find another assistant position. A friend suggested that I apply for the job at EIU: I told my wife that if I did not get it I would try something else…and then I got a phone call to interview. I was 1 of 4 guys they interviewed and probably a distant third, but after the top choice withdrew the 2nd choice (Gene Davis) took the job and they wanted him to keep 1 of the assistants. When Gene changed his mind and they called me to take the job I said no because I had already sold my house and planned on getting into business, but my wife changed my mind. I stayed so long because I loved the environment. I have seen many coaches try to climb the ladder and the effect it had on their family but I was happy.

In the 1992 NCAA tourney Alan Henderson had 19 PTS/11 REB in a win by Indiana: what was it like to face Bobby Knight in March? It was scary to try and match up against Henderson with a 6’5” PF of our own. We were happy to be there but we could not have had a worse matchup. Back then there was an 8-year wait until you could be an automatic qualifier for the tourney. When we had Kevin Duckworth in the mid-1980s we won our conference…but had nowhere to go.

In the 2001 OVC tourney title game Theanthony Haymon was called for goaltending on Jan Thompson’s last-second jumper in a 1-PT win over Austin Peay: did you think that the refs made the correct call, and how on earth were you able to overcome an 18-PT deficit over the final 6 minutes? Of course they made the right call! If you look at the replay it was a goaltend, even in the final second. I remember calling a timeout with about 8 minutes left and 1 of my assistants suggested trying to get it under 10 PTS with 5 minutes and under 6 PTS with 4 minutes. I had a kid named Kyle Hill who was an excellent player: when he got into his extra gear he was exceptional. Austin Peay started taunting him and you could see it in his eyes before he took control of the game: we scored on every single possession the rest of the way.

In the 2001 NCAA tourney Hill scored 32 PTS in a loss to Arizona: could you tell at the time that the Wildcats were good enough to make the title game? We missed 2 dunks to start the game, including 1 by Hill. We played with them through most of the 1st half until Henry Domercant sprained his ankle. Arizona tried guarding Hill with 2-3 different guys but they could not stop him. We were a #15-seed both years we made it…and both of our opponents ended up making the title game. The 1st time we were sent to Boise but the best part of getting sent to Kansas City is that a lot of our fans got to attend. It was the only time that a D-1 team has had 2 kids among the top-5 scorers in the nation with Kyle (23.8 PPG)/Henry (22.8 PPG).

Your career record at EIU was 360-360: how frustrating was it to not get 1 more win on your resume?! You can imagine how many games I have replayed in my mind trying to get that 1 win! Our league changed 3 times so it was difficult to build an identity.

During your career the Panthers were among the top 10% of the nation in graduation rate: how much importance did you place on academics? That is 1 of the reasons I liked the school: I recruited kids who were interested in getting a college scholarship and we emphasized the value of a degree. Looking back now it is quite impressive to see where my players are today.

You wrote a couple of books about the “Open-Post Motion Offense”: what is it, and what makes it so effective? The players make it so effective! We had a pair of big guys who could handle the ball on the perimeter and sacrificed their own scoring to set screens for our other shooters. We were able to open up the floor for good shots and driving, while also allowing us to move the ball from side to side. The mind behind that was current Purdue head coach Matt Painter, who was 1 of my assistants at the time.

You later worked as a development officer for Lincoln College: how did you like the job, and what do you hope to do in the future? It was challenging but I enjoyed it: it is a transformational place. This was it for me: I do miss coaching but I just enjoy watching games and several of my former players are now coaches.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day (and other News, Notes, and Games) – Monday, December 12th

Posted on December 12, 2022 by John Stalica

Liberty (6-3) at Oral Roberts (7-3) – 8:00 PM ET (Live Stream)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day heads to Tulsa where the hometown Oral Roberts Eagles hosts the Flames of Liberty University. The Flames come into the game ranked 27th in the country at allowing only 60.3 points a game, yet they have one of the top scorers in the country in Darius McGhee (21.3 PPG) who has already cracked the 2,000-point club in his career. The Flames are currently on a 4-game winning streak; their last loss came against Northwestern in the Cancun Challenge.

While Liberty has a stout defense, Oral Roberts will test it with their prolific offense; the Eagles have scored 86 points a game on average and is #8 in the country in that regard. Max Abmas averages about 19 points a game and is the preseason pick for Summit League player of the year; three other players average in double figures in PPG as well. ORU also has a 4-game winning streak that includes a win against Tulsa in the Mayor’s Cup for the second straight season. (Chad will show everyone the trophy for that game on Wednesday night in the UTR Podcast.)

 

OTHER NEWS, NOTES, AND GAMES (from The Puppet):

-We will be recording our Hoops HD Report Video Podcast tonight, and posting this week’s Bracket Projections tomorrow (a day later than usual).  Keep an eye out for both of those.

-Maryland and Tennessee played in a game where the offense wasn’t exactly pretty all the time, but it was still exciting down the stretch.  Maryland controlled the first half, Tennessee fought back in the second half, but the Terps held on for a 56-53 win, which is one of their biggest wins of the season so far.

-The offense was also lacking in the Seton Hall @ Rutgers game, although the intensity sure wasn’t.  It was down to the wire, Rutgers had mutliple good looks at the basket on their last possession that could have sent the game into overtime, but Seton Hall held on for a huge win both on and off paper 45-43.

-The surprise of the day was Towson, who we thought was a team that may be good enough to make a run at the bubble, losing at home in overtime to Navy 71-69.  A loss like this is almost like an arrow through the balloon.  It’s going to be VERY hard for Towson to recover to the point of the committee taking a serious look at them.  It’s still possible, and they’ve shown this year that they can be a really good team, but this does not help.

-Marquette won decisively at Notre Dame 79-64, which is yet another impressive win for Marquette.  They’re not 8-3 on the year, and this was their first true road win.

-Wisconsin picked up yet another impressive win as they knocked off Iowa in overtime 78-75.  Wisky appeared to have the game in hand at the end of regulation, but a combination of big plays from Iowa and turnovers from Wisconsin sent the game into overtime.  The Badgers got the win in the end, though, and if they aren’t in the Top 25 later today, then we need a new slate of voters!!

-Virginia Tech got a battle from Oklahoma State, but held on for the 70-65 win and improves to 10-1 on the season.

-RICE AT TEXAS.  Rice comes in at 6-2, which is a much better year than what we are used to seeing from them, but they are likely way overmatched tonight.

-ARIZONA STATE VS CREIGHTON (Las Vegas NV).  Creighton has dropped to 6-4 and is suddenly not looking like the Final Four contender that they were right out of the gate.  Arizona State has jumped to 9-1 and not looking like the team that was going to be a total bust that they did right out of the gate.  Both teams appear to be going in different directions, and both could really use this win.

-NEW MEXICO VS SAN FRANCISCO (Las Vegas NV).  New Mexico is unbeaten on the year with some notable wins on their resume, and they’ve got a chance to pick up another one tonight against a San Francisco team that’s been a bit of a surprise considering all the roster turnover they’ve had, but that’s won some big games and that may be able to make a case that they belong back in the NCAA Tournament.

-Louisiana Christian (nonD1) @ Louisiana – Louisiana can get to 9-1 on the year

-Monmouth @ Syracuse

-Northern Illinois @ Gonzaga

-Kennesaw State @ San Diego State

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games – Sunday, Dec 11th

Posted on December 11, 2022 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Alabama played a tough first half against Houston, and then fell behind early in the second half, and I think everyone’s thinking at the time was that Houston would control the rest of the game.  Well, they didn’t.  Alabama fought back, then pulled even, then pulled ahead, and then stayed ahead for the 71-65 win.  To date, it’s the single most impressive win that any team has managed this season.  They beat the #1 team on their floor.  Wins don’t get any better than that.  Last year at about this time, Alabama beat Gonzaga out in Seattle.  I guess December is just Alabama’s month!

-Penn State over Illinois was another shocking result.  We knew Penn State was good, but for them to go into Illinois and absolutely control that game the way that they did was not something we were expecting.  Penn State picked up the 74-59 win, and to say that they look like a tournament caliber team would be an understatement.

-Purdue needed overtime, but survived at Nebraska 65-62 and will almost unquestionably remain ranked in the top 4.

-The Boarder War (or whatever they’ve renamed it) between Kansas and Missouri resumed last year.  In both games Kansas was pretty much up by about 20 when the game tipped off.  Yesterday, they went into Missouri who was unbeaten, and within minutes had complete control of the game despite a bonkers crowd.  It wasn’t bonkers for long.  Kansas absolutely rolled (again!) 95-67.

-Arkansas got a battle from Oklahoma over in Tulsa, but picked up the solid 88-78 win.  Arkansas is a talented team that appears to be gelling more and more as the season goes on.

-Arizona controlled Indiana for most of the game out in Las Vegas, and held on for an 89-75 win.  Every time the Hoosiers appeared to be mounting a run, Arizona would answer.  The Wildcats have a VERY impressive resume with some big time neutral floor wins right now.

-Kentucky got a battle from a Yale team that’s really good, but held on for the 69-59 win.  This game was very close late into the game, and Kentucky is probably receiving some criticism for not dominating this one, but I don’t think most of those critics understand just how good Yale actually is.  We said yesterday that we thought this might be close.

-We were starting to nail BYU’s coffin shut, but yesterday they picked up a hugely important and hugely surprising win over Creighton 83-80.  This is a bit of a setback for the BlueJays who have fallen to 6-4 after once being ranked in the top ten (and looking like a top ten team), but it is perhaps a season saving win for a BYU team that really needed it. Ryan Kalkbrenner was out of the game due to non-Covid illness for Creighton, though.

-Saint Mary’s also needed a really big win.  Saint Mary’s also got a really big win.  They knocked off San Diego State 68-61 in Phoenix and that suddenly changes the entire complexion of their resume.   As for San Diego State, they’re still a good team, but they suddenly aren’t looking like the top 25 team that we all thought they were.  When you lose to multiple teams that aren’t ranked, then you yourself probably shouldn’t be ranked either.

-Miami FL had to come from behind to beat NC State, but picked up the 80-73 win.  Both teams still have work to do, but both have also shown that they have the potential to be good teams (especially Miami), and we need to keep our eyes on both of them.

-I am no longer touting Drake.  They lost yesterday, by 30, to Richmond.  It’s hard to make a case that they belong inside the bubble when they get blown out by a team that doesn’t appear to be anywhere near it.

-LSU improved to 8-1 after beating a good Wake Forest team in a really exciting 72-70 game.  The Tigers are now worthy of some praise and attention.

-Xavier absolutely dominated the first half against crosstown rivals Cincinnati, but Cincinnati came back in the second half, made some big shots, and actually tied the game in the final minute.  A foul with less than two seconds to go, and a technical foul after calling timeout when Cincinnati had no more, allowed Xavier to win it at the line and escape with an 80-77 win.  It was a nice road win for Xavier, and their first of the season.

-Oregon, for perhaps the first time all season, looked like the Oregon team that we were all expecting to see in the preseason.  They pretty much controlled a really good Nevada team for a 78-65 win, and pulled their record to an even 5-5.  They are getting out of the starting gate a little late, but there is still plenty of time for the Ducks to end up having a big year.

-Boise State got a really nice win out at Saint Louis 82-80.  It’s their first true road win of the season, and it’s a pretty good one and it improves the Broncos to 8-2 overall.  As good as this was for Boise State, things are looking really bad for Saint Louis.  They’re now 7-4 on the season after losing their second consecutive game, and haven’t looked anything like an NCAA Tournament team.

-Memphis picked up what was probably their best win of the year so far knocking off Auburn 82-73.  Memphis was at home, but it was still good for them to play that well against a highly ranked team and show that their talented players could play that well together.  This one may mean just as much off paper as it does on paper.  If nothing else, it silenced one of their critics.  ME! (Note from Stalica – the win was actually in Atlanta. It’s actually the most notable win by anyone in the American this year – even Houston doesn’t have a Top 25 win yet, much less a win against a team just outside of the Top 10.)

-UNLV remains unbeaten after knocking off Washington State 74-70.  We figured UNLV might be tested int his one, and they were.

-Utah State also remains unbeaten on the year after knocking off a fairly decent LMU team 79-67.

-Seattle U is now 7-1 on the year with three true road wins and the only loss being at Washington.  They knocked off North Dakota on the road yesterday 80-78.

-UMass Lowell improved to 11-1 with their 68-59 win over Saint Francis Brooklyn.

-West Virginia got a battle from UAB, but held on to win 81-70.  They played each other last year as well, and both games were fun to watch.

-Marshall won their ninth straight game since losing their opener, and picked up their 3rd road win, as they knocked off Robert Morris 69-60.

-Western Kentucky is now 8-1 after really having to sweat out Wright State, but holding on for the 64-60 win.

-Louisiana is now 8-1 on the year after they beat Samford 75-58.

-Additional note from Stalica: With Central Connecticut State’s win against Dartmouth yesterday, we are now down to 2 remaining winless teams in Division 1. Both Louisville and California are still winless and both got blown out against Florida State and Butler, respectively.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-IONA VS SAINT BONAVENTURE (Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational, Brooklyn NY).  Iona made quite a bit of noise after their blowout win against Saint Louis, but they still have a lot of work to do (and a very small margin for error) if they want to end up inside the bubble.

-OKLAHOMA STATE VS VIRGINIA TECH (Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational, Brooklyn NY).  Virginia Tech is 9-1 on the year, and while they don’t have any wins that completely blow you away, they have a lot of decent ones and are probably being undervalued a bit.  Oklahoma State was my preseason dark horse, and so far they have failed.  A win today could really do a lot to turn their season around, though.

-NEW MEXICO STATE AT DUQUESNE.  New Mexico State is still dealing with all the off the court issues surrounding the program.  Duquesne is a very respectable 7-2 on the year and has yet another winnable game today.

-MARQUETTE AT NOTRE DAME.  Both teams are good, both have managed some decent wins, and both are looking for another one that would look good on their resumes.  I wouldn’t go so far to call this a big rivalry, but it is a series with some history and it does have at least a little bit of heat to it.

-MARYLAND VS TENNESSEE (Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational, Brooklyn NY).  Both teams are high in the rankings, both have managed some really good wins this year, and both are putting together the types of profiles that protected seeds typically get.  This is the kind of game teams need to win in order to get a protected seed.

-OREGON STATE AT TEXAS A&M.  TAMU still has a lot of talent and a lot of potential, but they have been disappointing so far.  They really can’t afford to lose this one at home.  Oregon State doesn’t look like a tournament team, but they are better than what we were expecting and are good enough to beat teams that overlook them.

-WISCONSIN AT IOWA (Big Ten).  This is a very good Wisconsin team, and quite frankly it’s almost laughable that they’re not in the top 25 right now.  Earlier this week they beat a highly ranked Maryland team, and that followed up an overtime win on the road against a really good Marquette team.  Today, they’ve got another tough road test against an Iowa team that’s also good and that’s probably on an emotional high after their blowout win against rivals Iowa State.

-SETON HALL AT RUTGERS.  Rutgers comes in at 6-3, and in their last game they lost on a desperation 3 at the buzzer at Ohio State that somehow went in.  Still, this Rutgers team is really good and I have to think big wins will start coming.  They should win this one against rivals Seton Hall today at home.

-HOFSTRA VS UMASS (Basketball Hall of Fame Inviational, Brooklyn NY).  Hofstra is a fairly tough team out of the Colonial and UMass is off to a decent 7-2 start.  They still have a ton of work to do in order to be considered a tournament team, but they’re having a much better year than what many of us were expecting.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT MINNESOTA.  Mississippi State comes in 8-0 and ranked in the top 25.  This is their first true road game of the year, though.  It’s the kind of game that a tournament caliber team should be able to win, so we’ll see what they can do.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-Tarleton @ UCF – This is a good UCF team and a win gets them to 7-2
-Central Connecticut @ Fordham – a win for Fordham gets them to 11-1 on the year
-North Greenville (NonD1) @ Charleston – Charleston is getting closer and closer to the top 25
-Prairie View @ Northwestern
-Incarnate Word @ Kansas State
-Indiana State @ Southern Indiana – Indiana State can improve to 10-1 on the season and pick up their third road win
-Navy @ Towson
-McNeese @ Iowa State

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Under The Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, December 11th

Posted on December 11, 2022 by John Stalica

Lipscomb (6-3) at Tennessee State (5-4) – 3:30 PT ET (ESPN+)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to Nashville for an intracity matchup; while we didn’t get to feature the Battle of the Boulevard between Belmont/Lipscomb, we do get the intracity matchup of Lipscomb and Tennessee State. The Bisons of Lipscomb were on a 4-game winning streak at one point this season, but that was put to a halt with a surprising 63-59 loss at Alabama A&M on Friday. Jacob Ognacevic averages 17.9 points a game for the Bisons.

With the departures of Belmont and Murray State to the Missouri Valley and a sluggish start by OVC favorite Morehead State this year, Tennessee State is one team that will be looking to contend for the league crown this season. Since winning their opening game in the SoCal Challenge against Cal State-Northridge, the Tigers have lost their last 3 games against D1 competition against High Point, Saint Louis and Austin Peay, respectively. TSU did get back on track with a 103-49 win against Boyce last Tuesday; six Tigers scored in double figures with Zion Griffin leading the way with 23 points.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day – Saturday, December 10th

Posted on December 10, 2022 by John Stalica

For today’s News, Notes and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE

Grand Canyon (7-3) vs. North Texas (7-2) – 5:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day is part of the Jerry Colangelo Classic at the Footprint Center in Phoenix (home of the Suns and Mercury) – while it is technically a neutral-court game in the eyes of the NCAA, it is a de facto home game for the Grand Canyon Antelopes. While teams like Seattle, Sam Houston and New Mexico State have grabbed headlines for various reasons in the WAC, it is the Lopes who are the preseason favorites to win the conference. Loyola Marymount beat Grand Canyon 69-65 in their last game; it was a rare noncon loss for the Lopes at home. Jovan Blacksher Jr. leads the Lopes with a 12.7 PPG average.

North Texas ended up finishing 2nd in the Baha Mar Hoops Nassau Championship with wins against San Jose State and Long Beach State before losing to UNC-Wilmington in the championship game. More recently, the Mean Green got back on track with back-to-back wins against Omaha and next-door neighbor UT-Arlington on the road. Tylor Perry averages 17 points a game for the Mean Green.

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