– Two of four teams will be eliminated from the Survival Board by not qualifying for the MAC Tournament today. As we understand the tiebreakers, these are the paths into the MAC Tournament for two of Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Central Michigan and/or Ball State:
The winner of tonight’s Western Michigan at Bowling Green game is in.
If Central Michigan defeats Northern Illinois at home, they are in.
If CMU loses, then Ball State can get in if they win (at Miami-Ohio) and Western Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
Under any other scenario, the loser of Western Michigan at Bowling Green is in.
-Michigan State got a battle from Iowa but held on to win. UC San Diego sputtered in the second but held on to win against Long Beach. If they win their last regular season game I feel they should be locked into the field regardless. I hope the committee agrees!
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-DAYTON AT VCU (Atlantic 10). I have now come around to thinking that VCU will land inside the bubble, or at least on it, if they win this last game and then avoid an early loss in the A10 Tournament. Dayton has shown signs of life this year, but they’ve been disappointing throughout conference play. Still, they are potentially dangerous if they can start to click.
-BUFFALO AT AKRON (MAC). Akron can finish off conference play at an amazing 17-1, but even with that they will still need to win three more in the conference tournament to make it to the NCAAs.
-PURDUE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Both are solid NCAA Tournament teams who are looking to improve both their profiles and their seeds. Purdue could still lock up a #1 seed and as rough as it has been for Illinois they can still put together a really good profile with a win tonight and a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament.
-SOUTH FLORIDA AT MEMPHIS (American). Memphis is all but locked in to the top half of the bracket. We will see what kind of seed the committee gives them if they are able to win out through the AAC Tournament.
-UNLV AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). New Mexico needs to hold serve to stay inside the bubble, which they should be able to do. In fact if the win this game tonight, which they should, I think they are pretty much a lock.
-COLORADO STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). These are two of the better teams in the MWC right now, but neither one is safely in the field. In fact both still have work to do just to get there. Boise State is right on the bubble (again) and needs a win tonight. Colorado State probably can’t get in without the auto-bid, but right now they may be playing the best basketball out of anyone in the league and this would certainly be a big win for them tonight.
Conference Tournament action continues as Lipscomb and North Alabama have advanced to the ASun Championship game as the top two seeds. The Missouri Valley also got underway with its opening round today and some big quarterfinal games tomorrow. The Ohio Valley, Summit League, Horizon League, and Patriot League were also in action. We discuss all that, and more!
And, for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
In addition to the eliminations in conference tournaments today, there are several teams that could be eliminated from qualifying for their league tournaments, as follows:
– CAL POLY: Eliminated from qualifying for the Big West Tournament with a home loss to Cal State-Fullerton AND a Cal State-Bakersfield home win over Hawai’i.
– NIAGARA: Eliminated from qualifying for the MAAC Tournament with a loss at St. Peter’s or a Rider home win over Canisius.
– ST PETER’S: Eliminated from qualifying for the MAAC Tournament with a home loss to Niagara AND a Rider home win over Canisius AND a Fairfield win at Siena.
BLEACHER BROTHERS APPEARANCE!
Our expert “mixologist” Chad Sherwood made a guest appearance with AJ and Junior on the Bleacher Brothers Show last night, and had to answer why do we have a Puppet on our podcasts?!?
Check it out right here:
DAILY RUNDOWN:
Last night was a relatively busy night with teams in the SEC not only making claims for a #1 seed, but teams around the bubble began lobbying on the court (and not just in the postgame pressers) with much needed wins.
– We need to start with Florida; the Gators beat Alabama 99-94 on the road to complete a road sweep of both Alabama and Auburn. That is a massive double and there may now be a discussion of whether or not Florida can leapfrog Houston (and maybe Duke if they lose at UNC this Saturday) as a result.
– Ole Miss got a desperately-needed quality win with a 78-76 victory at home against Tennessee. That clinches at least a single bye in the SEC Tournament for the Rebels; if they can win at Florida in their regular season finale and get some help, they could also sneak into a double bye with a #4 seed!
– Oklahoma kept their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a 12-point home win against Mizzou. The Sooners have a massive finale at Texas that they absolutely must win (also keep in mind that Texas could also finish a must-win week at 2-0). Mizzou’s profile has a yellow flag with only 3 wins away from Columbia.
– While Wisconsin won in Minnesota without much trouble, Maryland went on the road to Michigan and got a 71-65 victory that now puts the Terrapins in the discussion for a possible protected seed. The Wolverines’ ship is starting to take on water at the wrong time of the year.
– Clemson and Louisville both won to remain a game behind Duke in the ACC standings, but the Cards now have yet another injury issue as Reyne Smith left in the first half with a lower leg injury. Currently he’s day-to-day, but losing their best 3-point shooter is something Louisville can’t afford as they get set for the ACC Tournament next week.
– UConn completed a season sweep of Marquette with a 72-66 victory in the Basketball Capital. This steers the Huskies back into the top half of the bracket and now Marquette is headed into storm clouds to end their season. Particularly a Red Storm looming for them in the regular season finale.
– Xavier managed to withstand a hot-shooting Butler team from 3-point range and blew open what was a close game at halftime with a 19-4 run sandwiched around halftime en route to a 91-78 victory on the road. The Musketeers are now guaranteed a first-round bye in the Big East Tournament and are likely going to be paired against Marquette in their conference tournament opener.
– It was also a relatively quiet night in the Big 12 with Texas Tech getting a comfortable win at home against Colorado. Cincinnati was anything but comfortable going into last night and has now been swept by Kansas State after losing 54-49 at home. Wes Miller had a few choice words for himself and his team in the postgame presser.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
MICHIGAN STATE AT IOWA (B1G) – On paper, this game means a lot more to Iowa in that the Hawkeyes need to win this to get into a 6-way tie for 11th place in the conference. If they lose this game, they are going to need a lot of help over the weekend just to qualify. I’ll leave it to Chad Sherwood to confirm.
LIBERTY AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (C-USA) – Tonight’s game will be on CBS Sports Network and the winner of this game joins Jacksonville State in a first-place tie atop the league standings. Liberty is getting a few mentions as a long shot at-large, but if they lose tonight those mentions will be relegated to DMs.
UC-IRVINE AT UC-DAVIS (Big West) – This is the first of two critical road games remaining for the Anteaters; a loss here pretty much finishes their at-large hopes and could all but sew up a #2 seed in the conference tournament.
LONG BEACH STATE AT UC-SAN DIEGO (Big West) – A win here and the Tritons will clinch a share of the Big West crown. They will also clinch the #1 seed by virtue of a split with UC-Irvine and a sweep of 3rd place Cal State-Northridge.
HoopsHD keeps celebrating the greatest time of the year with Part 2 of our 3-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel continues our coverage with his predictions for 4 conference tourneys getting underway this week/weekend. Tweet us if you have any comments, check back later next week for his picks on the remaining 16 conference tourneys, and if you missed his picks last weekend about 11 other conference tourneys you can find them at: https://hoopshd.com/2025/03/02/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-3
America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#2 seed) Dates: March 8-15 Location: Campus sites 2024 tourney champ: Vermont (#1 seed) Fun fact: Vermont has won 5 of past 7 tourneys Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were #1-seed The Catamounts have owned this tourney since before COVID but struggled out of the non-conference gate with 3-game losing streaks in both November & December. I was leaning towards choosing Bryant, but Vermont has gotten hot at the right time with a 9-game winning streak (including a 4-PT win over the Bulldogs last month) to finish the regular season. Coach John Becker has made the title game in 7 of the past 8 years that this tourney has been played so nobody will be able to out-coach him in March. Since the higher seed will host each tourney game in which they play, Vermont cannot wait to welcome teams to Patrick Gymnasium where they have lost exactly 2 home games all season. Defense allegedly wins championships and a team that is 15th in the nation with 64.3 PPG allowed knows the importance of guarding their own basket. I was a little worried that they were running out of TJs after TJ Long went down with an injury in December, but TJ Hurley has helped save the day with 16.1 PPG/88.7 FT%.
Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Montana (#2 seed) Dates: March 8-12 Location: Boise, ID 2024 tourney champ: Montana State (#5 seed) Fun fact: Montana State has made title game in each of past 4 years Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed The good news for Montana State is that it has made the title game in each of the past 4 years: the bad news is that they were swept by both of the top-2 seeds this year so I do not think they can make it 5 in a row. Therefore, I will go with their fellow Treasure State program located in Missoula. Last March the Grizzlies made it all the way to the title game before losing to the Bobcats, but Coach Travis DeCuire has never had a losing season during his 11 years as head coach so I believe in him. His team was red-hot down the stretch and the only reason they are not entering this tourney on a 12-game winning streak is because they choked away an 11-PT lead with 5 minutes remaining in an OT loss at Portland State last Saturday. They are not a great rebounding team, but you do not have to rebound a lot of misses when your 49.8 FG% is #3 in the nation…and with all the money in the sport these days, how can you bet against a team whose leading scorer is named Money Williams?!
MVC tourney predicted champ: Bradley (#2 seed) Dates: March 6-9 Location: St. Louis, MO 2024 tourney champ: Drake (#2 seed) Fun fact: each of past 3 championship schools won back-to-back titles Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed After making each of the last 4 title games and wrapping up a 27-3 regular season last Sunday you would think that Drake is the 1 top seed in the entire nation that I SHOULD go with…but history says otherwise. This tourney has been unkind to #1 seeds, and the only school to ever win 3 of these in a row was Southern Illinois from 1993-1995. Over the past 2 months the Bulldogs have won 15 of 16 with just a 2-PT home loss, so I will go with the team that gave them that loss. Bradley looked quite beatable a month ago when they lost 3 in a row to UIC/Northern Iowa/Belmont by an average of 13+ PPG, but they got back on track by winning 6 of their final 7. There are some teams that require a deep-dive to discover the secret to their success but that is not the case for the Braves: their 40.9 3P% is #1 in the nation, and they have 4 seniors who each started 30+ games this season.
Southland predicted champ: McNeese (#1 seed) Dates: March 9-12 Location: Lake Charles, LA 2024 tourney champ: McNeese (#1 seed) Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 7 tourneys Seeding: 9 of past 11 champs were top-2 seed McNeese shattered their school record for wins last year with 30 (the previous high was 22)…but I would argue that this year’s squad is just as impressive. Last year they only faced 1 top-75 team in non-conference play (beating VCU in the season-opener), but this year the Cowboys are much more battle-tested with a win over North Texas and single-digit losses to Alabama/Liberty/Santa Clara/Mississippi State. You can call Coach Will Wade a lot of things but “loser” is not 1 of them: at age 42 he has won 70% of his games while coaching 4 teams in 4 different conferences. Their 70 FT% might end up biting them in the butt…but with an average scoring margin of 13.1 PPG thanks to a defense that is top-20 in the nation with 64.4 PPG allowed, they usually do not have to worry about games that go down to the wire.
The Stairway to Seven continues and action kicks off in the Northeast, Summit League, Ohio Valley, and Big South. We review all of Wednesday’s action, preview Thursday’s games, update our Survival Board and more! It is Day 4 of the Championship Week Video Notebook!
In addition to eliminations from conference tournament games today, NC State will be eliminated with either a loss at home to Pitt or a Notre Dame win over Stanford.
-In a few words, last night was crazy…
-Auburn went on the road to Texas A&M and suffered a rare loss. It’s odd to say that losing on the road to a ranked team is a surprise, but given how good Auburn has been looking it kinda was. Texas A&M came into the game with four straight losses. I’d say they’ve bounced back in a big way. They basically held a lead from tip to buzzer and won 83-72.
-BYU struggled to score early, and turned the ball over a ton, and had a lot of things go wrong, but…won!!! At Iowa State!! They held off the Cyclones 88-85 in overtime. BYU is suddenly looking as good as some of the top teams in the country. They’ve won seven straight, and have road wins at Arizona and at Iowa State in that stretch.
-Texas at Mississippi State was a clown show of errors both at the end of regulation and in overtime, but the end result is all that matters and Texas got a win they desperately needed. They came into the game outside of our bubble, and while this doesn’t lock them in, it was a win on the road against a Mississippi State team that is safely in the top half of the bracket, and that is BIG!
-Georgia, who really needed a road win, got one at South Carolina 73-64. Granted, it was at South Carolina who isn’t going anywhere near the tournament without a ticket, but it was still a win away from home.
-Baylor, who also really needed a road win, got one last night at TCU 61-58. TCU is outside the bubble, but they have played well at home it’s definitely a win that makes Baylor’s resume look a little better.
-West Virginia also picked up a road win as they held off Utah 71-69. Like a lot of teams previously mentioned, their win didn’t come against a team that will make the field, but the road win does make their resume look a little better.
-Indiana battled out at Oregon, but just couldn’t get it done and the Ducks pulled away in the final minute for a 73-64 win. I don’t want to say this was a damaging loss for Indiana because it really wasn’t, but it was a big missed opportunity at a big win for a team that is squarely on the bubble.
-Nebraska and Ohio State went to multiple overtimes before Ohio State finally got the 116-114 win. Both teams really needed this one, and both still have work to do, but the win definitely helps keep Ohio State’s head above the water.
-Arkansas, who was coming off one of the more pathetic showings of the entire season, picked up one of their biggest wins of the season last night as they beat Vanderbilt 90-77 on the road. Vandy has a decent team overall, but on their home court they have been phenomenal. I’m sure the committee knows that and that Arkansas will get a lot of credit for this win.
-San Diego State could have really used a nice road win at UNLV last night to held stabilize their spot in the field, but hey came up short 74-67. The Aztecs seem to be slowly sinking into the quicksand. They need a good finish to the season and to avoid an early loss in the MWC Tournament.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-MARYLAND AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). Both teams are high in the rankings. We’ve been projecting Michigan as a protected seed for a while and Maryland is perhaps within reach of it. Michigan has won a lot of close games, which has a lot of people questioning how good they actually are, but they’ve beaten a lot of good teams in those close games so they must be good. As for Maryland, this would be a big road win for them if they can pull it off.
-FLORIDA AT ALABAMA (SEC). These are two of the six teams that are solidly in the hunt for a #1 seed and the outcome of tonight’s game will play a big role in determining whether these teams end up there. Alabama is finishing the regular season with games against Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn. Then the SEC Tournament. I mean…wow! They will certainly be battle tested.
-CLEMSON AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). Clemson has been red hot and they should be able to hold serve in this one. Some at Hoops HD are thinking they are on the fringe of getting a protected seed.
-XAVIER AT BUTLER (Big East). This is a game that Xavier simply has to win. They’re on the bubble, they’re facing a team that’s nowhere near the bubble, and they cannot afford to lose it. Having said that, it may not be an easy game. Butler has battled teams on their home court this year.
-COLORADO AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). Texas Tech is almost locked into a protected seed and just needs to hold serve in games like this. They’re at home against a non-tournament caliber team.
-MISSOURI AT OKLAHOMA (SEC). An old Big 12 rivalry!! Oklahoma’s is still good enough to get the Sooners a look despite having played so poorly in conference. They need to win this one to keep themselves in the discussion. Mizzou is solidly in the field, but the one thing they could use more of is true road wins. A win tonight, even though it’s against a bubble team, would make their resume look stronger.
-WISCONSIN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). Wisky is a likely protected seed and Minnesota will likely struggle just to make the Big Ten Tournament. It’s a road game, but it’s one Wisconsin should roll in.
-MARQUETTE AT UCONN (Big East). Both teams appear to be very safely inside the bubble and are just playing to improve their resume and their seeding. It would be a nice road win for a Marquette team that’s been able to win some big games on the road. It would also be a nice win for a UConn team that has struggled at times throughout the year, but has now won three of their last four.
-TENNESSEE AT OLE MISS (SEC). Tennessee is in the hunt for a #1 seed and this would be another solid win on their resume. It’s a road game against an Ole Miss team that is solidly in the field.
-CALIFORNIA AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). Louisville appears to be cruising toward a spot in the top half of the bracket and just needs to hold serve in order to land there.
