The Stairway to Seven is underway!! Southern Miss and Louisiana are now just six wins away from immortality after picking up wins in the opening round of the Sun Belt Tournament. The Patriot League also had a couple of thrillers in their opening round and chalk held in the opening round of the Horizon League. We look at all those games, preview tomorrow’s conference tournament action, and update our Survival Board.
-Duke totally dumptrucked Wake Forest 93-60. Duke looked like a team that belongs on the 1-seed line and Wake looked like a team that doesn’t even belong in the field.
-Kansas played one of the better games they’ve played in a while, and was actually right in there with Houston for much of the game, but the Cougars pulled it out at the end and finished with a 65-59 win.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-GEORGIA AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC). Georgia has won two straight and is coming off a big road win at Texas. They are going in the right direction, but they are still right on the bubble and have a lot of work to do. A win tonight, which would be another road win, would certainly help.
-MEMPHIS AT UTSA (American). This should be an easy routine road win for the Tigers. They are cruising toward the top half of the bracket and may already be locked into it.
-RUTGERS AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Purdue just snapped a four game losing streak with a nice win over UCLA and has another winnable game against Rutgers tonight. Rutgers could use a win or two down the stretch just to help ensure that they make the Big Ten Tournament, so don’t expect them to just come out and lay down.
-LSU AT KENTUCKY (SEC). There aren’t many easy games in the SEC, but by SEC standardss this probably qualifies as easy. Kentucky is still a fringe protected seed and will likely end up there if they hold serve.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). North Carolina remains outside the bubble and needs to hold serve in games like this in order to get in the right side of it.
-VCU AT DUQUESNE (Atlantic 10). VCU should land inside the bubble if they win out and avoid an early loss in the A10 Tournament. They are on fire right now and looking like the kind of team that can not just get to the Round of 64, but be dangerous once they are there.
-CREIGHTON AT SETON HALL (Big East). Creighton was just blown off the floor by Xavier in their last game and needs to bounce back. They should be able to add another conference road win to profile tonight and stay in the top half of the bracket.
-TEXAS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Texas is just 1-6 in their last seven games and appears to be right on the bubble. They need a win tonight, and perhaps more between now and the end, in order to land on the right side of the cutline. Mississippi State has also struggled some lately, but not as much as Texas and their spot in the field is much more secure right now.
-BAYLOR AT TCU (Big 12). Baylor is coming off a win against Oklahoma State, but they still have a lot of work to do and could really use a road win like this to help boost their resume. They are just 2-9 in true road games, which is a big hole on their resume, so this game does have a pivotal feel to it for the Bears.
-AUBURN AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Auburn has been on a role and while it’s never easy to beat a ranked team on the road, Auburn has been doing it all season. A short time ago we felt Texas A&M might be on the brink of a #1 seed, but they’ve currently lost four straight and have another really tough assignment tonight. They’re at home and it should be a high energy game, but those types of atmospheres have not phased Auburn at all this year.
-BYU AT IOWA STATE (Big 12). BYU has been on an absolute tear lately. Still, while they’ve won a lot of big games, they haven’t won one quite this big. A road win against a likely protected seed and one that’s coming off a decisive home win against Arizona State would be at another level.
-WEST VIRGINIA AT UTAH (Big 12). West Virginia remains close to the bubble and will really be tested on the road tonight. Utah is nowhere near the field, but they are still tough to beat at home.
-NEW MEXICO AT NEVADA (Mountain West). New Mexico is inside the bubble and is looking to hold serve tonight. While it’s a bit of a test on the road, it’s still one that they should be able to win.
-BOISE STATE AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West). Boise State is right on the bubble and needs a strong finish in order to get selected. A win tonight wouldn’t be helpful so much as a loss would be very damaging.
-INDIANA AT OREGON (Big Ten). This is one of the bigger games of the night considering what this win would mean for Indiana. They are inside our field, but still close to the bubble, and a win like this would give them another big boost up the seedlist. Oregon has been inconsistent all season, but they have now rattled off five straight wins and will look to keep that streak going tonight.
-NEBRASKA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). This is a very bubblicious game as Nebraska has gone into a tailspin and needs to pull their way out of it, and Ohio State really needs to string together wins to help them land on the right side of the bubble. This game has huge stakes for both teams. They both almost need to win it.
-ARKANSAS AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Vandy has gone on a tear lately and played their way almost safely inside the bubble. They’ve also been one of the toughest teams in the country on their home floor, whereas Arkansas has struggled on the road. Arkansas was pitiful in their last game against South Carolina and needs to bounce back and get a win in a game like this in order to have any shot at making the field.
-ARIZONA STATE AT ARIZONA (Big 12). Arizona was blown out by Iowa State in their last game, but they should be able to bounce back from that. This is likely to be much better theater than it will be a game. Arizona is clearly the superior team and given how Arizona State stormed off the court the last time they met I’m sure the Wildcat fans will be ready to welcome them!
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UNLV (Mountain West). This is a tricky road game for a San Diego State team that’s trying to remain inside the bubble. In order to do that they need to avoid losses to teams that are not going to make the field.
UTR WATCH:
-AKRON AT TOLEDO (MAC). Akron has pretty much wrapped up 1st place in the MAC. They’ll be tested on the road tonight, but it’s a test they should pass.
A full panel is configured tonight as we head into the final week of the regular season. Auburn remains at the top of the rankings with a big win at Kentucky, and Tennessee knocked Alabama off in a thriller that could impact the #1 seed line. Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Arkansas are all on the bubble and all have big games coming up down the stretch. Saint John’s resume keeps getting stronger out of the Big East, and Xavier goes into the final week right on the bubble. Michigan State is looking solid out of the Big Ten, Houston is cruising to a #1 seed out of the Big 12, and VCU is looking like they’ve played their way inside the bubble out of the Atlantic 10. We discuss all that, and so much more.
And, for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
-For our CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS tab, with all the brackets, sites, and tip times – CLICK HERE
-Michigan State keeps stringing together wins. They beat a really good Wisconsin team yesterday 71-62, they’re looking like the best team in the Big Ten, and will likely ended up as high as a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The loss barely even qualifies as a setback for Wisky. They’re still well within the protected seed range.
-Illinois, who had not looked good in the last few weeks or so, looked pretty good yesterday! They blew Michigan off of their own floor 93-73 and probably exercised a lot of frustrations during that game. Michigan had been playing with fire by cutting it close in so many games and barely escaping with a win. Well, they didn’t cut it close yesterday. They just got run over.
-Memphis picked up a nice road win at UAB 88-81. I hope the committee gives them some credit for this. UAB is nowhere near the bubble, but they had been playing well down the stretch and beating them on their home floor wasn’t easy.
-Drake needed overtime to get by Missouri State on their home floor, and while they won it was the second straight game where they struggled against a very weak team. Some say this would have been a quad 5 loss. But, they did hold serve, they did get the win, and I think Drake should be inside the bubble and in the field even if they lose in the Missouri Valley Tournament.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-WAKE FOREST AT DUKE (ACC). Duke is cruising to a #1 seed and should be able to hold serve at home in this one. Wake Forest is outside the bubble, but they are close enough to it to where picking up a colossal level win such as this could put them inside of it. Easier said than done, though. Winning at Duke is…well…kinda hard to do.
-KANSAS AT HOUSTON (Big 12). Kansas has struggled in true road games for most of the season and struggled in big games recently. Well, this is a chance to correct both of those issues in a very big way!! It’s much easier said than done, though. Houston appears to be on pace for a #1 seed and is as good as anyone in the country right now and winning at Houston is…well…kinda hard to do.
-UCLA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). UCLA is solidly in the top half of the bracket and depending on how they finish and how well they do in the Big Ten Tournament they may still have a shot at a protected seed.
UTR WATCH:
-McNeese @ Stephen F Austin (Southland) – McNeese has wrapped up the Southland title and is just biding their time until the conference tournament starts.
-BIG SKY – Montana and Northern Colorado are deadlocked for 1st place and both are in action tonight
A full panel is assembled tonight and they all build this week’s seedlist line by line! They debate, discuss, assess, and argue about each team as they go. Find out who they have on the #1 lines so far, who is safely in, who still has work to do, and who on the bubble just made it in and just missed it.
Below is a final copy of The Bracket, but don’t look at it until you’ve watched the show!!
And, for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with Part 1 of our 3-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for 11 conference tourneys getting underway this week. Tweet us if you have any comments, and check back later this week for Part 2 and next week for Part 3.
Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Lipscomb (#1 seed) Dates: March 2-9 Location: Campus sites 2024 tourney champ: Stetson (#2 seed) Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years Seeding: Each of past 8 champs were top-2 seed The Bisons were tested early and often in non-conference play, starting 2-4 with double-digit losses at Arkansas/Kentucky on their John Calipari national tour. In late-November they flipped the switch and ended up winning 20 of their final 25. Since this tourney is played on campus sites this is 1 of those where it usually pays to pick a top seed. Since Lipscomb and North Alabama split the season series with the home team winning each game by double-digits it is definitely a coin flip. I will pick the team from NashVegas due in large part to Coach Lennie Acuff, who has been a head coach for more than 35 years and made 11 D-2 tourneys when he coached at Alabama-Huntsville. I thought this team was going to fall apart after Dylan Faulkner broke his foot in January, but thanks to Jacob Ognacevic’s transformation from medical redshirt to best player in the conference and their opponents’ inability to make FTs (66.1 FT% allowed is #3 in the nation) they have a good chance of making the NCAA tourney for just the 2nd time in school history.
Big South tourney predicted champ: High Point (#1 seed) Dates: March 5-9 Location: Johnson City, TN 2024 tourney champ: Longwood (#5 seed) Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 7 years Seeding: 4 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed This tourney is frequently unkind to #1 seeds so I was tempted to pick UNC Asheville…until I noticed that the Bulldogs lost 3 games last month. Since this tourney does enjoy seeing some new blood hoist the trophy, the Panthers are the pick as they try to make the 1st NCAA tourney in school history. Coach Alan Huss won 27 games last year in his debut season, and avoided a sophomore slump by winning 26 games this year, including each of his final 11 games. While their defense leaves a lot to be desired, their offense is awesome as they are top-25 in the nation in PPG/FG%/FTM. As much the transfer portal is designed to allow power-conference teams to pluck the best players from smaller schools, High Point has flipped the script by bringing in several players from larger schools including 3 of their top-4 scorers in D’Maurian Williams (who spent the past 2 years at Texas Tech)/Kimani Hamilton (who began his career at Mississippi State)/Bobby Pettiford (who spent his 1st 2 years at Kansas). They even have power-conference size in the form of 7’ center Juslin Bodo Bodo, who is the “big” reason that they only allow 30.8 RPG.
CAA tourney predicted champ: Towson (#1 seed) Dates: March 7-11 Location: Washington, DC 2024 tourney champ: Charleston (#1 seed) Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 3 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel) who have never made the NCAA tourney…but then they lost 4 games in February. Since this tourney likes top-2 seeds who have not won it in awhile the clear choice is Towson, who last made the NCAA tourney in 1991 as a member of the venerable East Coast Conference. After only winning 4 games in 2021 Coach Pat Skerry has now won 20+ games for the 4th year in a row. It is hard to believe the Tigers had a 6-game losing streak during non-conference play, but after big man Tyler Tejada got healthy they have been near-unstoppable with just 2 losses since Christmas. Offense is not their strong suit but their defense will keep them in most games, as they only allow 11.2 APG…and for those who wonder whether prayer can help win games, may I remind you that 2 of their starters are named Christian (May) and Messiah (Jones)!
Horizon tourney predicted champ: Youngstown State (#4 seed) Dates: March 4-11 Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN 2024 tourney champ: Oakland (#1 seed) Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed I do like Penn alumni so I am dying to go with my fellow Quaker Andy Toole, the head coach at Robert Morris (or as the folks at HoopsHD like to call them: Morris Robert). However, this tourney dislikes #1 seeds so I will go with another HoopsHD favorite: the Penguins! Even though I dislike 1st-year coaches, Coach Ethan Faulkner has had quite a wild debut season. He started 2-5 in non-conference play, then won 8 in a row, then had a rocky ride in conference play but was still able to finish top-4 in the conference standings. Their starting lineup is a little short with nobody standing taller than 6’6”, yet they are #10 in the nation with 5.4 BPG due in “large” part to 7’3” C Gabe Dynes, whose defensive prowess is…DYN-O-MITE!!
NEC predicted champ: LIU (#2 seed) Dates: March 5-11 Location: Campus sites 2024 tourney champ: Wagner (#6 seed) Fun fact: 7 different champs in past 7 years Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not top-3 seed This tourney does not love top-3 seeds but does like new blood, and you would think that 1-seed CCSU would have the advantage with games played at campus sites. However, 1 of their only 2 home losses all season was to LIU, who has not won this tourney since 2018, so beware of the Sharks. They were 4-11 in non-conference play and then began a rollercoaster of a conference season: a 6-game winning streak to start things off, followed by a 4-game losing streak including a pair of OT losses, and then yet ANOTHER 6-game winning streak to finish the regular season. Coach Rod Strickland’s offense is 1 of the worst in the nation, which puts a lot of pressure on their defense to keep them in games. LIU must be 1 of the only teams in this country featuring 3 starters from the country just north of ours: Malachi Davis (from Toronto)/Jamal Fuller (from Toronto)/Shadrak Lasu (from Winnipeg). Good luck, eh!
OVC predicted champ: Southeast Missouri (#1 seed) Dates: March 5-8 Location: Evansville, IN 2024 tourney champ: Morehead State (#3 seed) Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 years Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed I know that the Redhawks are both the #1 seed AND won this tourney 2 years ago, but they are just too hot to ignore. After losing 22 games last year, starting non-conference play this year 3-6, and losing 4 of 6 during a 3-week stretch in January, Coach Brad Korn’s team flipped the switch in late-January and won 10 in a row before getting a wake-up call in a 15-PT loss at Eastern Illinois to end their regular season. Their offense needs some work but their perimeter defense is fantastic, as their 28.5 3P% allowed is #5 in the nation. The scary thing is that only 1 of their top-6 scorers is a senior so this could actually be the start of a nice multi-year run.
Patriot predicted champ: Army (#6 seed) Dates: March 4-12 Location: Campus sites 2024 tourney champ: Colgate (#1 seed) Fun fact: Colgate has won 5 titles in past 7 years and finished 2nd each of the other 2 times Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were #1 seed Colgate, led by my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, has appeared in the title game during each of the past 7 years and won 4 of them in a row. However, the Raiders finished with a losing record for the 1st time since 2017 so let’s go with the sentimental favorite. It would be quite a sight to see Army make the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in their 123-year basketball history. The Black Knight split each of their season series with the top-4 seeds (American/BU/Bucknell/Colgate) and won 10 conference games for the 3rd time in the past 6 years. They have won multiple games this year that have lasted multiple overtimes, but I suppose it is easy to have endurance when Coach Kevin Kuwik rolls out his 24-man roster (seriously!). There are plenty of seniors whose college basketball debut occurred in 2020 but few have faced the obstacles that SR Jalen Rucker has: he missed all of last year due not to an injury/suspension but rather the rules of West Point. Cadets who begin their junior years must commit to fulfilling their education, so even after Rucker announced that he was transferring the academy would not release him from his commitment: hopefully there will be a happy ending next month for both Jalen and his school.
SoCon predicted champ: Chattanooga (#1 seed) Dates: March 7-10 Location: Asheville, NC 2024 tourney champ: Samford (#1 seed) Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 years Seeding: each of past 7 champs were #1-seed I know I cannot select the #1 seed to win every tourney, but this tourney likes #1 seeds almost as much as the Puppet likes last year’s champ (#BuckyBall!) so the pick is Chattanooga. Coach Dan Earl never won more than 16 games during his 7 years at VMI, but since moving to Tennessee he has now won 18+ games for the 3rd year in a row. It is hard to believe the Mocs started conference play by losing 2 of 3 because since then they have been near-perfect by winning 14 of 15 with just a 4-PT loss to Samford in January. Then again, for those of you who research each team’s roster, why would you ever pick against a team that has a pair of starters named Honor (Huff) and (Frank) Champion?!
Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#3 seed) Dates: March 5-9 Location: Sioux Falls, SD 2024 tourney champ: South Dakota State (#1 seed) Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2012 are North Dakota State/Oral Roberts/South Dakota State Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were #1 seed Omaha is the #1 seed but split their season series with the defending champ, and since the tourney will take place in their home state the choice is South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits lost 2 of their 1st 3 conference games but finished strong by winning 10 of their final 13. Coach Eric Henderson may never repeat his ridiculous 30-win season of 2022…but putting up 6 straight winning seasons is nothing to sneeze at. His team is top-75 in the nation in FG% from each of 1-PT/2-PT/3-PT land which means its success is based on its offensive output. Their November neutral-site non-conference schedule prepared them well for league play (a win over McNeese in Sioux Falls in their season opener and a 1-PT loss to Boise State in the Cayman Islands during the week of Thanksgiving), and having the best big man in the conference does not hurt either. 6’11” Oscar Cluff was perfectly decent at Washington State last year but the Australian Sensation has taken it up several notches this year: 17 PPG/12 RPG/3 APG/64 FG%/60 3P%/78 FT%.
Sun Belt predicted champ: Troy (#3 seed) Dates: March 4-10 Location: Pensacola, FL 2024 tourney champ: JMU (#2 seed) Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed This should be 1 of the most entertaining tourneys of the week with the top-5 only separated by 1 game in the standings. This tourney does not like top seeds but does like new blood so I think Troy will take the title. It has been 17 years since Coach Scott Cross has won a conference tourney (his UT-Arlington squad won the 2008 Southland title as a #7 seed) but his current squad is battle-tested after non-conference road trips to Arkansas/Oregon/Houston. The Trojans have lost 6 games since Christmas but all 6 of those losses were by 7 PTS or less, which means they have been competitive in every single game during the past 2 months. Their 29.9 3P% is bottom-20 in the nation but they make up for it by rebounding their misses (14.1 ORB is #9 in the nation) and defending for 40 minutes (65.3 PPG allowed is top-30 in the nation). We are still 8 months away from Carlos Boozer’s twin sons Cameron/Cayden taking the court for Duke but until then we can enjoy the Troy equivalent featuring the Rigsby brothers (Marcus Jr./Myles, who have combined for 19 PPG/7 RPG/2 SPG/2 3PM).
WCC predicted champ: St. Mary’s (#1 seed) Dates: March 6-11 Location: Las Vegas, NV 2024 tourney champ: St. Mary’s (#1 seed) Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 20 titles in past 27 years and finished 2nd each of the other 7 times Seeding: 20 of past 21 champs were top-2 seed Gonzaga coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 24 straight NCAA tourney appearances (not counting the COVID cancellation), 22 regular season titles, 19 conference tourney titles, while being named conference COY a ridiculous 14 times. However, it is St. Mary’s who has been doing their best Bulldog impersonation this season by going 17-1 in conference play (including a sweep of the Zags) and only a 1-PT road loss at San Francisco last month. The Gaels continue to take comfort in their dominant defense: their 60.8 PPG allowed is #5 in the nation. Augustas Marciulionis was conference POY in 2024, and after his fellow Lithuanian Paulius Murauskas transferred in from Arizona last year they have become quite the dynamic duo, combining for 27 PPG/11 RPG/8 APG/2 SPG/3 3PM.
