SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATES ( click here to view):
Courtesy of Chad Sherwood
-AMERICA EAST – Albany out if they lose at home to NJIT
-IVY LEAGUE – If Cornell wins at Yale OR Brown wins at Columbia then Harvard and/or Dartmouth are eliminated if either team loses (Harvard home vs Princeton, Dartmouth at Penn)
-MAC – Western Michigan out if they lose at Akron AND Central Michigan wins home vs Northern Illinois
-OHIO VALLEY – Little Rock is out with a loss at Lindenwood. If Little Rock win, Lindenwood is eliminated from the OVC Tournament, but they are already off the Survival Board.
-SWAC – MVSU out with a home loss to Ark-Pine Bluff
Last night had a couple games of note involving NCAA Tournament-bound teams; Xavier got off the mat after getting out to a 19-point lead at Seton Hall at halftime. The Pirates got out of the gates with a 12-1 run, but Xavier answered with a 12-0 run of their own and the Musketeers ended up with a 22-point win. There were a few fireworks at the end of the game, but ended up with no more than offsetting technicals and one ejection for a Seton Hall player leaving the bench. The Pirates now have to win the Big East tournament to go dancing.
Nevada avoided stubbing their toes at Fresno State, which is more than can be said for other teams in the Mountain West. The Wolf Pack end their regular season with a game at Wyoming and a home game against UNLV. They would be well advised to win both games before the Mountain West tournament.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-CREIGHTON AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Creighton is solidly in the field and is pretty much just playing for seeding the rest of the way. They could even end up as high as a protected seed if they can finish strong. They’re clearly the superior team here, but playing on the road is never easy, but in saying that it is a chance to add another road win to their resume. That said, Villanova is every bubble team’s nightmare – this team is finally healthy and showed Tuesday at Xavier that they are still perfectly capable of doing major damage at the Big East tournament in a couple of weeks.
-TCU AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). This is a huge game for Texas Tech, as are all their remaining games, as the Red Raiders actually have a shot at landing inside the bubble. TCU has dealt with injuries this season, and dropped a lot of games during that stretch, but they are healthy again and they are dangerous. Texas Tech is at home, they have also had their own injury problems and they’ve been playing really well lately. So, it’s a high stakes game between two teams that are playing well and who could really use the win.
-CLEMSON AT NC STATE (ACC). Clemson has some really stinko losses on their resume and is currently outside our bubble, but they can still end up landing inside of it if they can finish strong. This is a huge opportunity that they really kind of need. As for NC State, they’re hovering around our 8/9s seed lines and should remain there so long as they continue to hold serve in games like this.
-MICHIGAN STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten). Both teams are inside the bubble, both are safely inside the field minus a meltdown, and both have a chance to build up their resume and climb the seedlist between now and the end. I really like how Michigan State has been playing lately, but they will definitely be tested in this one today.
-ARKANSAS AT ALABAMA (SEC). Alabama has a path to being the #1 overall seed, and Arkansas appears to be far enough inside the bubble that they will likely stay there, but the Hogs could REALLY shoot up the seedlist if they were to pull off this upset today.
-ARIZONA STATE AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). Arizona is a solid protected seed who some feel could reach the #1 line, whereas Arizona State is outside our bubble and won’t be able to get inside of it unless they’re able to pick up a win like this.
-TEXAS AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Both teams are ranked in the top ten, both appear to be headed toward protected seeds, and both still have a chance at ending up on the #1 line, especially Texas if they can pick up a massive road win like this. It’s more of a showcase game between two highly ranked teams than it is a must-win game between teams playing for their tournament lives, but as far as the final seedlist goes it’s a big game for both teams.
-KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12). Another big game in the Big 12. K State is looking to lock up a protected seed, and Oklahoma State is looking to simply land inside the bubble and make the field. The Pokes have lost three straight after appearing to be on a pace to where they’d continue to climb the seedlist and coast to a place in the field, but now they are in a position to where they probably need to win two of their last three in order to feel safe heading into the Big 12 Tournament.
-TEXAS A&M AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Texas A&M is on an absolute rampage. They had won a lot of games, and when their schedule suddenly got harder about a week ago, they kept winning games. They’ve gone from being on the fringe of the bubble to looking at a possible 5 seed if they keep it up, and perhaps even better depending on what happens between now and the end. This will not be an easy game. It’s on the road against a good Mississippi State team who’s been very good at home and who really needs this win to help ensure they land on the right side of the bubble.
-WEST VIRGINIA AT KANSAS (Big 12). A bubble team is visiting a likely #1 seed. This is probably too tall of an order for a West Virginia team that needs to some how find a few more wins between now and the end of the season, but if they were to pull it off, it would probably make the difference in regards to them getting into the field.
-AUBURN AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Auburn is solidly on the bubble and a win in a game like this on the road and against a team that now appears to be solidly in the field, would go a very long way. Kentucky still has a lot to play for as well. If they want to improve their seed then they need a strong finish to the season.
-VIRGINIA AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). Virginia has not looked good at all in their last three games. They struggled to beat two really weak teams, and then failed to beat Boston College, who is also a weak team. North Carolina has failed to win any games at all that indicate they belong in the tournament. A win today may not be enough to get them there, but it would at least be a huge step in the right direction. They are at home, they’ve have played well at home all year, and Virginia has not played well in their last three games, so golden opportunities do not get more golden than this.
-INDIANA AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Indiana won the first battle between these two, and they’ve shown multiple times that they can win big games on the road, but winning THIS game on the road is just an entirely different level. Purdue is still in the hunt for a #1 seed and will likely get it if they win out through the regular season, which is something they are definitely good enough to do. If IU were to win this, then they’d jump from being a possible protected seed to an almost assured protected seed.
-USC AT UTAH (Pac 12). USC is squarely on the bubble and they are coming off a really nice (and decisive) win at Colorado the other night. If they can follow that up with a win tonight, it would probably have them sweating a whole lot less in regards to them making the field. Utah is outside the bubble, but to beat them on their court would still be considered a solid win.
-SAINT MARY’S AT GONZAGA (West Coast). Saint Mary’s won the first meeting between these two, and throughout most of conference play actually looked like the better team, but for the past two weeks the Zags have been on a rampage. I cannot foresee the Zags not being amped up for this game. They don’t want to not finish in first place, they don’t want to finish behind their rivals, and they don’t want to be swept by their rivals. Tonight should be a crazy atmosphere. As for Saint Mary’s, if they were to somehow win this, I will go from liking them to REALLY liking them!
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). San Diego State is solidly in the filed, but I personally don’t like them quite as much as most everyone else seems to. Most of the rest of Hoops HD has them around the #6 line whereas I have them in the 8/9 range. Having said that, if they get this win on the road tonight, I will like them a lot more. As for New Mexico, they are right on the bubble and really need this win just to end up on the right side of it.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-UConn @ Saint John’s (Big East) – UConn has really come to life having won five of their last six, and they should be able to continue that string today
-Oklahoma @ Iowa State (Big 12) – Iowa State is just 3-7 in their last ten games, and while they are safely in the field, and could even still end up as a protected seed, they need this one today if for no other reason than it is probably their most winnable remaining game
-Missouri @ Georgia (SEC) – a challenging, but winnable, road game for a Mizozu team who can make their profile look a little bit better by picking up another road win
-UTEP @ Florida Atlantic (Conference USA) – we say this every time, but if FAU wins out they should go into the field on the first ballot
-Florida State @ Miami FL (ACC) – Miami has had a fantastic season, is high in the rankings, and could end up as a protected seed if they’re able to finish strong
-Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (ACC) – I like how Pitt has been playing and think they should be able to hold serve and get this one at home. Syracuse still has a very slim chance at making a run at the bubble, but they’d basically need to win out until the ACC Championship Game
-Florida @ Vanderbilt (SEC) – it’s not likely, but Vandy is currently 8-7 in SEC play and this is a winnable game. If they can win out they’d be at 11-7, and if they can then win a game or two in the SEC Tournament, then….maybe they get looked at?
-Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (ACC) – Wake is outside the bubble, but they are at least close enough to it to reach it with a strong finish to the season and a good showing in the ACC Tournament
-Boise State @ San Jose State (Mountain West) – Boise State is inside the bubble, but still pretty close to the edge of it. They can’t afford to lose games, even on the road, to teams that are nowhere near the bubble.
-DePaul @ Marquette (Big East) – Marquette has been outstanding and is on pace to be the first place finisher in the Big East, and could end up as high as the #2 line if everything falls into place. This should be a layup win for them
-Houston @ East Carolina (American) – Houston is on pace to get a #1 seed, and will almost be assured of it if they win out through the regular season
-Virginia Tech @ Duke (ACC) – Duke is solidly in the field and is unbeaten at home. I look for them to remain solidly in the field and unbeaten at home after tonight
UTR WATCH:
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-STONY BROOK AT CHARLESTON (Colonial). Charleston is tied with Hofstra with just one game to go. A win today clinches at least a share, but they need Hofstra to lose in order to get the #1 seed.
-IVY LEAGUE – Princeton, Yale, and Penn are tied for first place with just two games to go, whereas Cornell, Brown, and Dartmouth are in a three-way tie for 4th place, and the final spot in the Ivy League Tournament. It looks like it’s going to come down to the final game of the season next week regardless of what happens today. Princeton will play at Harvard, in a game that Harvard needs to win in order to stay alive for a spot in the Ivy League Tournament. Penn hosts Dartmouth and Yale hosts Cornell
-FURMAN AT SAMFORD (SoCon). If Samford can win this game, then they clinch an outright first place finish. If Furman wins, then it’s at least a two-way tie with the possibility of a three-way tie if UNC Greensboro beats East Tennessee State.
-BUFFALO AT TOLEDO (MAC). Toledo has a one game lead with three left to play. They can clinch a share of first place with a win today and a Kent State loss.
-NORTHEASTERN AT HOFSTRA (Colonial). With a win, Hofstra clinches at least a share of first place, and the #1 seed in the conference tournament via the tiebreaker over Charleston. Hofstra beat Charleston earlier in the year.
-ORAL ROBERTS AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League). Oral Roberts has already clinched an outright first place finish, but this is perhaps their toughest conference game, so it’s more of a litmus test for ORU than anything else.
-UT MARTIN AT MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley). Morehead State has already clinched an outright first place finish and a bye into the semis of the conference tournament. Today is just a warm-up game and a final home send off.
-HOWARD AT NC CENTRAL (MEAC). Howard has a one game lead over Norfolk State with three games to go. They can clinch at least a share of first place with a win today and a Norfolk loss to South Carolina State (which, admittedly, isn’t likely).
-VERMONT AT BRYANT (America East). Vermont has clinched first place and will have home court advantage throughout the conference tournament. This will probably be one of their tougher conference road games, but win or lose it doesn’t matter. They’ve already clinched.
-COLGATE AT NAVY (Patriot League). Colgate has already clinched first place and will have home court advantage throughout the conference tournament.
-UNC ASHEVILLE AT LONGWOOD (Big South). These are the top two teams in the conference, but UNC Asheville has already clinched first place. Having said that, this league no longer plays the tournament at campus sites, so all 1st place really means is that they get to wear white uniforms throughout the tournament.
-HORIZON LEAGUE – it’s the last day of the season, and we’ve got a two-way tie for first place between Cleveland State and Youngstown State. Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky are just a game behind them and could both still win at least a share of first place. Cleveland State and Youngstown State split the season series, but if one wins and the other loses, then whoever wins ends up being the outright first place finisher. If they both win or both lose, it gets a little crazy after that. Youngstown goes to IUPUI, which is about as winnable as a game can possibly be, and Cleveland State goes to Milwaukee, who is just a game behind them and can tie them in the standings.
