HoopsHD keeps celebrating the greatest time of the year with the 2nd part of our preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel continues our coverage with his predictions for the 19 conference tourneys getting underway this week/weekend. Tweet us if you have any comments, and if you missed his picks last week concerning the 13 other conference tourneys you can find them at:
https://hoopshd.com/2022/02/28/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-2-7
AAC tourney predicted champ: Memphis (#3 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Fort Worth, TX
2021 tourney champ: Houston (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 teams in title game since 2018 are Cincinnati/Houston
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
Houston does not need a conference tourney title to advance but Memphis just might. Coach Penny Hardaway has had a tumultuous season including 3 straight conference losses in mid-January but he has righted the ship by winning 10 of his final 11 games. The Tigers have very balanced scoring with 6 different players averaging 9-12 PPG so even if you can shut down 1 of them there are plenty of other guys to pick up the slack. Memphis made the NCAA tourney 10 times in 12 years from 2003-2014 and after almost a decade of down years it is time for them to become Tiger Kings!
A-10 tourney predicted champ: St. Bonaventure (#4 seed)
Dates: March 9-13
Location: Washington, D
2021 tourney champ: St. Bonaventure (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs since 2015
Seeding: only 1 of past 7 champs was top-2 seed
This tourney has not been kind to top-2 seeds in the past so you should think twice before just giving the trophy to Davidson or Dayton. The Bonnies began February with a pair of losses to Davidson/Richmond but have been rolling since then by winning 8 of their final 9 games. Coach Mark Schmidt was the conference favorite entering the season thanks to 5 senior starters, and teams that have continuity/experience often use that to win games in March. The rotation is not that deep but with 4 starters all standing between 6’3” and 6’5” they can switch every single defensive assignment, and if someone manages to get to the rim they will be greeted by 6’10” Osun Osunniyi, who has led the league in BPG for 3 of the past 4 years.
ACC tourney predicted champ: Virginia Tech (#7 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Brooklyn, NY
2021 tourney champ: Georgia Tech (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 8 different champs in past 9 years
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were not top-2 seed
It is quite tempting to pick Duke so that Coach K can win 1 final title before he rides off into the sunset…but top-2 seeds have not done well here recently. So as long as we are going outside the top-2 we might as well head all the way down the bracket to the hot Hokies, who lost 5 of their 1st 7 games in January but have now won 9 of their past 11. Coach Mike Young is no stranger to winning conference tournaments: he won 5 SoCon tourneys during a 10-year span from 2010-2019. If Virginia Tech can keep knocking down 3-PT shots (their 38.8 3P% is #4 in the nation) then they will be able to hang around even if they fall behind early. 
Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Texas Tech (#3 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Kansas City, MO
2021 tourney champ: Texas (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs since 2018
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not top-2 seed
Kansas owned this tourney for most of the past 15 years, and Baylor is the defending national champ, but top-2 seeds have not been lucky in Kansas City recently. I am normally not a fan of 1st-year coaches but Mark Adams opened everyone’s eyes when he beat those 2 teams during back-to-back games in January (and beat Baylor again at home last month). However this conference features so many terrific teams that nobody will be able to cake-walk into the title game. The Red Raiders win games with defense, and with 4 senior starters standing 6’5” to 6’8” they can switch every single screen on the perimeter. The X-factor is the health of Kevin McCullar, the lone junior starter: last month he got to the FT line 15 times in a double-digit win over the Longhorns, but in 9 games since then he has missed 4 games and not even attempted a single FT in 4 of the other 5 games. 
Big East tourney predicted champ: Connecticut (#3 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: New York, NY
2021 tourney champ: Georgetown (#8 seed)
Fun fact: Villanova has made title game 5 times since 2015
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
If Coach Dan Hurley can restrain himself from getting ejected in the 1st half, he will enjoy a pro-Huskies crowd at Madison Square Garden. Since losing at Xavier on February 11 his team has won 6 of its last 7 games (including a win over Villanova) with only a 2-PT loss at Creighton, and has been patiently waiting for a revenge game with Providence since a 4-PT home loss to the Friars in their conference opener in December. James Bouknight is gone from last year’s squad and instead of replacing him with just 1 guy they have a nice mix of sophomores/seniors to call on. 1 thing is for certain: if Georgetown wins this for the 2nd year in a row then Patrick Ewing deserves to remain in DC!
Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Montana State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Boise, ID
2021 tourney champ: Eastern Washington (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Eastern Washington has made each of past 3 title games
Seeding: each of past 10 champs were top-2 seed
This tourney likes top-2 seeds and Southern Utah got swept by Montana State so I guess we have to go with the Bobcats. Coach Danny Sprinkle’s team started 1-2 in conference play but have won 15 of 17 since New Year’s Day with only a pair of single-digit road losses in February. The Bobcats have good size up front with 6’8” Tyler Patterson and 6’9” Jubrile Belo but the player who most often comes up “big” for them is 5’8” PG Xavier Bishop. The UMKC transfer had back-to-back games where he only scored 3 PTS last month but appears to be back on track during his past 7 games with 19 PPG/29-33 FT.
Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Iowa (#4 seed)
Dates: March 9-13
Location: Indianapolis, IN
2021 tourney champ: Illinois (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs since 2018
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were not #1 seed
There are like 7 different teams who could win this tourney…and if it was held in Piscataway then there would be an 8th! Illinois is certainly good enough to make a run, but since 1-seeds have not fared well in this tourney I will choose a similarly-hot Hawkeye team (who the Illini just beat by 2 PTS at home last Sunday). Coach Fran McCaffery lost national POY Luka Garza from last year’s 22-win team, but sophomore Keegan Murray must have picked up a lot of good habits because he is a strong national POY contender this year. Garza was an offensive machine, whereas Murray can do a lot of everything (23.3 PPG/8.6 RPG/1.3 SPG/2.1 BPG). If you like seasoned veterans, there is literally no player ever who has more experience than senior PG Jordan Bohannon, whose 174 career games are the most of anyone in D-1 history.
Big West tourney predicted champ: Long Beach State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Henderson, NV
2021 tourney champ: UCSB (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2016
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were #1 seed
This tourney seems to have a new champ every year and Long Beach State has not won it in a decade so let’s go to the Beach! Coach Dan Monson has had a take of 2 seasonz: 4-9 after 13 games, then won 14 of his final 16 games with only a pair of road losses. Then again, after only winning 6 games last year they could walk off the court today and already consider it a successful season. Losing senior big man Joe Hampton to a season-ending hand injury was almost a season-killer, but freshmen Jadon Jones/Aboubacar Traore have certainly helped pick up the slack, combining for 19 PPG/12 RPG. 
C-USA tourney predicted champ: Middle Tennessee (#1 seed in East Division)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Frisco, TX
2021 tourney champ: North Texas (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs since 2013
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
The bad news for defending tourney champ North Texas is that the #1 seed does not often win this tourney…but the good news for the Mean Green is that they are playing so well that they might end up with 1 of the last at-large bids to the NCAA tourney even if they do not win the conference tourney! Middle Tennessee was looking great when winning 13 of 14 from early-January through late-February, although back-to-back 4-PT road losses to finish the season is a bit of a red flag. The Blue Raiders are a bit undersized with no starter standing taller than 6’7”, but as long as they can keep it close they should be able to win it at the FT line, as both Josh Jefferson/Donovan Sims are shooting better than 87 FT%.
Ivy tourney predicted champ: Princeton (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-13
Location: Cambridge, MA
2021 tourney champ: None
Fun fact: No team has won multiple titles
Seeding: each of 3 all-time champs were top-2 seed
As much as I would like to pick my Quakers to rally from a 3-10 start this season and end up making the NCAA tourney, my Penn education has taught me that is a poor wager. As much as it kills me to pick the Tigers, they have only lost 5 games all year with 4 of the 5 losses coming by 7 PTS or less. 3 years ago Princeton was terrible at 3-PT shooting (30.3 3P%) and great at FT shooting (74.5 FT%): this year they have not just flipped the script but rewritten the entire book, as they are great at 3-PT shooting (38.5 3P%) and terrible at FT shooting (64.9 FT%)! Normally I would also be encouraged by the experience factor of starting 3 seniors/2 juniors…but since there was no Ivy League basketball season at all last year due to COVID it remains to be seen whether having a bunch of veterans will give a team any sort of advantage.
MAAC tourney predicted champ: Iona (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
2021 tourney champ: Iona (#9 seed)
Fun fact: Iona has won tourney each year since 2016
Seeding: 9 of past 10 champs were not #1 seed
Iona has owned this tourney for most of the past decade…and even though this tourney has not been kind to 1 seeds, if the Gaels were able to win it last year as a 9-seed then how on earth could anyone pick against them as the best team in the league this year!? It is also never a good idea to bet against Rick Pitino in March. He has only lost 5 games all year due to his team being among the best in the nation at defending the 3-PT line (29.9 3P% allowed). The NBA Academy Africa has already produced some solid college players such as Efe Abogidi (Washington State)/Timothy Igohoefe (Georgetown) but the best of the bunch just might be Nelly Junior Joseph, as the sophomore is stuffing the stat sheet in New Rochelle (12.9 PPG/8.2 RPG/1.1 SPG/1.9 BPG)
MAC tourney predicted champ: Kent State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 10-12
Location: Cleveland, OH
2021 tourney champ: Ohio (#5 seed)
Fun fact: Buffalo has made title game 5 times since 2015
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
I know that Toledo is having a great season but this tourney does not like #1 seeds so I will pick Kent State to win it all. The Golden Flashes swept the Rockets this year and despite starting conference play 4-4 they won 12 in a row to finish the regular season. I thought that Coach Rob Senderoff might be 1 year away since he did not have a single senior who started more than 19 games, but the junior backcourt duo of Sincere Carry/Malique Jacobs did just fine by themselves. Additionally, unlike most mid-major teams who do not have a big man who can defend the rim, Kent State senior Justyn Hamilton has been a sensational shot-blocker, including 5 straight games with multiple blocks to begin February.
MEAC tourney predicted champ: Norfolk State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Campus sites and Norfolk, VA
2021 tourney champ: Norfolk State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: NC Central has won this tourney 4 times since 2014
Seeding: 7 of past 10 champs were not #1 seed
I know that #1 seeds have not done well here, and the Spartans do have a few bad losses on their resume, but they are the defending champs and have only lost twice since Christmas so I think they are good enough to buck the trend. Coach Rob Jones wins games with defense, as his team is top-50 in the nation in shooting percentage allowed from each of 1-PT/2-PT/3-PT land. He should also see a lot of fan support, as the title game at the Norfolk Scope Arena is less than 2 miles from his home gym of Echols Hall.
MWC tourney predicted champ: Colorado State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2021 tourney champ: San Diego State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: San Diego State has made title game 11 times in past 13 years
Seeding: 9 of past 11 champs were top-2 seed
The Rams do have their kryptonite in a UNLV team that swept them this season by 14+ PTS in each game, but this tourney likes top-2 seeds and they swept Boise State twice in the past 6 games so they get the nod. Coach Niko Medved has won 20+ games for the 3rd year in a row and wins games with offense, as his team is top-50 in the nation in shooting percentage from each of 1-PT/2-PT/3-PT land. 4 of his top players are juniors so I thought they would be 1 year away from contending but they appear to be ahead of schedule. 2022 appears to be the year of the Rams in the sports world, so if they can avoid the Rebels then I think they can keep it rolling.
Pac-12 predicted champ: Arizona (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2021 tourney champ: Oregon State (#5 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs since 2018
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
I fear it is a jinx waiting to happen but I feel that I simply must pick my Wildcats to win it this year. They did not lose a single home game all season, and while it is technically a “neutral” site, prepare to see a lot of red and blue in the stands. The 2 main concerns are how badly they want to hoist this trophy (as they will probably have a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney wrapped up before they even arrive in Vegas) and how will they handle a close game if it comes down to the final possession (as they have had exactly ONE game decided by fewer than 9 PTS since Christmas). However, they have all the tools necessary to get it done including size (average height of 6’7” is #2 in the nation), passing (20.1 APG is #1 in the nation), and interior defense (41.6 2P% allowed is #6 in the nation).
SEC predicted champ: Kentucky (#3 seed)
Dates: March 9-13
Location: Tampa, FL
2021 tourney champ: Alabama (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs since 2018
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
Kentucky owned this tourney for almost a decade (6 titles and 2 runner-up finishes from 2010-2018) but have won exactly ONE game in this tourney since 2019. Auburn is a legitimate threat, but the Wildcats beat them on the road in January so there will not be any fear if there is a rematch. In the past it seemed like Coach John Calipari would just bring in a ton of freshman phenoms and then try to make it all work from scratch, but last year he brought in specific veterans from other schools to do specific things. West Virginia transfer Oscar Tshiebwe scores/dunks, Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler passes, and Davidson transfer Kellan Grady makes threes. Tennessee is red-hot as well, having won 9 of its past 10 including a double-digit win over the Wildcats, but I do not trust Rick Barnes in the postseason.
Southland predicted champ: Southeastern Louisiana (#2 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Katy, TX
2021 tourney champ: Abilene Christian (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs since 2017
Seeding: each of past 9 champs were top-3 seed
This appears to be a 3-team race, and if you pick New Orleans or Nicholls State then that certainly makes sense, but I have a hunch that the Lions will be roaring this week. Coach David Kiefer only won 8 games in each of his 1st 2 seasons, but has turned things around in year #3 despite getting destroyed in the paint (56 2P% allowed is bottom-10 in the nation). The good news Southeastern Louisiana is that after a brutal 4-9 start they won 14 of their final 18, including a sweep of the Colonels and a split with the Privateers despite blowing a 14-PT 1st half lead during the 1st meeting in January. Their height could be an issue, especially if 6’9” Kansas State transfer Antonio Gordon continues to miss some games, but if it is a close game then they have 3 different starters who shoot better than 80 FT% (Gus Okafor/Keon Clergeot/Ryan Burkhardt).
SWAC predicted champ: Alcorn State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-12
Location: Birmingham, AL
2021 tourney champ: Texas Southern (#3 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2013 are Prairie View/Southern/Texas Southern
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
Texas Southern has won this tourney 5 times in the past 8 years, and had you asked me last week I would have penciled them in to make it 6-of-9…but now that they have been swept by Alcorn State I think I have to go with the team from Lorman. Plus, as Atlanta showed in the World Series a few months ago, it is a good time to have a team called the Braves! Coach Landon Bussie only won 6 games last year and was just 1-11 as of New Year’s Day…but if you look at all of those losses you can see how the quality of competition toughened his team up (Gonzaga/Houston/Baylor/etc.). They were also far from perfect in conference play but swept the Tigers and won 8 of their final 9 with the only loss coming in OT. The only X-factor is injuries, as Darrious Agnew missed his 2nd game of the year last Thursday while Paul King has missed 4 in a row.
WAC predicted champ: Stephen F. Austin (#3 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2021 tourney champ: Grand Canyon (#1 seed)
Fun fact: New Mexico State has made title game each year since 2012
Seeding: each of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
This is probably the hardest 1 to predict because there are a LOT of teams with double-digit conference wins (7) as well as a whole bunch of teams who were not even in this league last year. 1 team that fits into both of those categories is Stephen F. Austin, who went 16-5 last season as a member of the Southland Conference and finished its 1st season in the WAC by winning each of its final 10 regular season games. Coach Kyle Keller’s squad has problems making shots from both 1-PT land (66.8 FT%) and 3-PT land (32.5 3P%) but hopefully his luck will change in Vegas. On the plus side, the Lumberjacks can cut their opponents down to size on defense, as they have a whopping 6 players averaging at least 1 SPG.
