-CORNELL AT BROWN (Ivy League) – this is not an elimination game, but it is an extremely pivotal game in the Ivy League as both teams are battling to finish in the top four.
-NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT EASTERN MICHIGAN (MAC) – Northern Illinois is eliminated with a loss today.
-PENN STATE AT MINNESOTA (B1G) – Keep in mind that only 15 out of the 18 teams in the conference qualify for the B1G Conference Tournament in Indianapolis. Penn State is in last place, but only a game and a half behind Iowa for 15th place. Minnesota is in a 3-way tie for 11th place after beating UCLA mid-week and causing Mt. Cronin to erupt.
-WASHINGTON AT IOWA (B1G) – Washington is a full game behind Iowa and could tie the Hawkeyes should they be able to win on the road. With a loss, the Huskies will be hard-pressed to qualify for Indy.
.ACC – Both NC State and Boston College are a game and a half behind Syracuse for 15th place in the ACC. Miami (our leader in the Stallings Award Race) is a game behind both NC State and BC. BC hosts Georgia Tech today and Miami hosts Virginia Tech.
NEWS AND NOTES:
-For John Stalica’s latest Staff Bracket Projection – CLICK HERE
-Michigan State got a huge road win over rival Michigan 75-62 after controlling the boards and completely dominating the second half. It is one of their most impressive wins all season so far.
-Villanova jumped out to an early lead at home against Marquette and basically held it for the entire game. They won 81-66 and at almost no point did it seem like Nova was not in control. Nova probably won’t end up on the bubble even if they win out, but they can still be a dangerous team.
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-TENNESSEE AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Just another match-up between two probable protected seeds in the SEC. Tennessee is now off our #1 line, but a road win in a game like this is the kind of win that could propel them back up there.
-OREGON AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Oregon has been playing a little better lately, but Wisky has been playing A LOT better for most of the year and is looking like they could cruise to a protected seed. Oregon has been inconsistent and they do have some really big wins away from home. If they can get this one it would certainly boost their resume, but considering how well Wisky has been playing it won’t be easy.
-WEST VIRGINIA AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). West Virginia is barely clinging to the bubble. A loss like this won’t set them back much, but a win could make the difference as to whether or not they make the field. Texas Tech looks to be a solid protected seed and just needs to hold serve in games like this.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT OKLAHOMA (SEC). Oklahoma has been awful in SEC play, but they were strong OOC and that should get them a look if they can string together a few more wins. Having said that, they need to win games. Mississippi State, even when they’re not at home, is not an easy game to win, but it’s one they absolutely need.
-IOWA STATE AT HOUSTON (Big 12). A major showcase game for the Big 12. Houston could still end up on the #1 line with a strong finish, and Iowa State can pick up what would be their biggest win of the year and give their already outstanding resume an even bigger boost. This should be a fun matchup given the different styles of play.
-OLE MISS AT VANDERBILT (SEC). This will be a very tough road game for Ole Miss, but they’ve shown they can win on the road this season. Vandy is right on the bubble, but they have been very strong at home this year and this would be another big win for them if they can somehow pull it off.
-CLEMSON AT SMU (ACC). This is a hugely important game for several reasons. It’s a chance for Clemson to get one of their better road wins of the year and really strengthen their resume, and as for SMU they are squarely on the bubble and a win like this will really help their chances.
-GEORGE MASON AT VCU (Atlantic 10). These are the two best teams in the A10, and probably the only ones who have any real shot at an at-large bid, and even then it may be a stretch. Nevertheless, both need a win today in order for it to be any sort of possibility.
-KENTUCKY AT ALABAMA (SEC). Both teams have solid profiles and Alabama is still within reach of a #1 seed, but both teams do have a lot to play for in this game. Bama has lost two straight, and while neither loss was damaging they are looking to bounce back from that. Kentucky’s resume is solid, but the one hole that it perhaps has is that they have just two true road wins this season. Not only would this be a road win, but it would be about as high caliber of a road win as they come.
-DUKE VS ILLINOIS (Game in New York’s MSG). It’s a rare February OOC showcase game between a Duke team that is gunning for the #1 line and should be running down hill toward it after today, and an Illinois team that’s played well at times, but played average at other times and is simply looking to boost their resume with a big OOC win.
-MISSOURI AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Missouri is on the brink of earning a protected seed, whereas Arkansas is just trying to win enough gmaes to play their way into the field. This won’t be easy for the Razorbacks, even though they are at home, but it’s one they almost cannot afford to lose.
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UTAH STATE (Mountain West). I think both teams are safely inside the bubble and chances are both will remain there barring some sort of collapse, but both also have room to improve their profiles and this is one of the better chances either one will have between now and the end of the year. It should be a fun game and atmosphere as well.
-SAINT MARY’S AT GONZAGA (West Coast). Both teams are inside the bubble and both will almost assuredly stay there, but both also have an opportunity between now and the end of the season to really boost their resume and improve their seed in the NCAA Tournament, and tonight’s game is a big part of that opportunity. That, and it’s also a rivalry game, so it should be fun because of what it means both on and off paper.
-BYU AT ARIZONA (Big 12). BYU is hovering around the bubble, but they’ve done almost nothing away from home. Having said that, tonight is a chance to change all that. A win at Arizona, who is looking more and more like they’re about to lock up a protected seed, would be doing quite a bit away from home and would change the entire complexion of their resume.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Florida State @ Louisville (ACC) – Florida State has been playing better, but Louisville is really solid and should hold serve at home in this one
-TCU @ Cincinnati (Big 12) – TCU is suddenly on a hot streak and they have a string of winnable games ahead of them. They can play their way inside the bubble
-Wake Forest @ NC State (ACC) – Wake is squarely on the bubble and needs to beat the teams on their schedule that are nowhere near making the field
-Georgia @ Auburn (SEC) – we’ve sort of dropped Georgia off our board, but if they were to somehow get this win on the road we’d probably put them right back up there
-Oklahoma State @ Kansas (Big 12) – Kansas shouldn’t have too much trouble pulling out this win at home. They’ve struggled on the road, but have been solid at home and are still solidly in the field
-Baylor @ Colorado (Big 12) – One thing Baylor needs more of is true road wins. They’re just 2-7 in true road games, but this should be a winnable opportunity for them today
-Virginia @ North Carolina (ACC) – I think North Carolina is clearly outside the bubble, but I suppose they are close enough to it to where they may be able to reach it by the end of the year
-Florida @ LSU (SEC) – Florida is currently being projected as a 1-seed, and while it isn’t easy to win on the road this is the kind of road game you’d expect them to almost routinely win
-Texas @ South Carolina (SEC) – Texas is hovering around the bubble, and they need to hold serve on the road tonight.
UTR WATCH
-Towson @ Campbell (Coastal Athletic) – this should be a tough road test for Towson who is coming off just their second conference loss of the year, but still has a one game lead for 1st place
-The Citadel @ Chattanooga (SoCon) – Chattanooga has a one game lead with just two games remaining after today
-FIU @ Liberty (Conference USA) – Liberty is just a half game back of 1st place and shouldn’t have too much trouble getting the win today and keeping pace with Jacksonville State
-Boston U @ American (Patriot League) – American has a 1 game lead with just 3 games remaining
-Stonehill @ Central Connecticut (Northeast) – Central Connecticut can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win today
-Lindenwood @ SEMO (Ohio Valley) – SEMO has a one game lead with just three games to go
-TAMUCC @ McNeese (Southland) – McNeese can clinch at least a share of the Southland with a win
-UTEP @ Jacksonville State (Conference USA) – Jax State is in a tie in the loss column with Liberty with just 4 games to go
-Southern @ Grambling (SWAC) – it’s a rivalry game, and Southern has a three game lead with just five games to go
-Akron @ Ohio U (MAC) – Akron remains perfect in conference play and has a three game lead with just five games to go. Having said that, Ohio U has been strong at home this year, so the Zips may be tested tonight
-Columbia @ Yale – Yale can clinch at least a share of 1st place with a win today
-South Dakota @ Omaha (Summit League) – Omaha just snapped a two game losing streak and is dead even with Saint Thomas in the standings. The other reason finishing 1st is important is because if they fail to win the tournament, but Saint Thomas does win it, then Omaha will still get the auto-bid
-Montana @ Montana State – Montana has a one game lead over Northern Colorado in the Big Sky, but they’ll be tested on the road in in a rivalry game tonight
-Hawaii @ UC San Diego (Big West) – UCSD can get inside the bubble if they win out, which they are definitely good enough to do
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Friday, February 21st
We thought that this would be the Puppet’s week to prepare the staff bracket this week, but
due to incarcerationinstead our colleague John Stalica will do the bracket this week. This is not an attempt to guess the Selection Committee (as Jon Teitel does every Sunday), but rather what John feels the bracket should look like after today. Here goes:First Four Out: Ohio State, Arkansas, TCU, Boise State
Worth a look: Xavier, SMU, North Carolina, VCU. UC-Irvine, San Francisco, Indiana, George Mason
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– One of the better memes during the past month is that the SEC is only .500 since conference play began in January. The ACC actually has a chance to finish over .500 in the same stretch since Duke will play a late non-conference game at Madison Square Garden against Illinois. It’s actually a pivotal matchup for both teams; Duke needs a win like this to stay on the 1-line and Illinois really needs a stabilizing win to stay in the top half of the bracket.
– The B1G has a vise grip on the 3-line since they don’t really have a clear cut favorite to win the league at this point. Michigan/Michigan State may offer a clue as to who will be at the top of the 3-line at the end of tonight.
– Kansas should be very thankful that they got neutral-court wins against Duke and Michigan State in the first month of the season; it’s the only thing (besides their name) keeping them in the top half of the bracket right now. In true road games, the Jayhawks are a very meh 3-7. By comparison, Xavier is also 3-7 in true road games (including a win at Marquette) and not in this bracket.
– Ohio State is officially in deep doo-doo after getting blown out at home by Northwestern. Now they have to go to the West Coast and get a sweep of both UCLA and USC to get back into the field. I don’t think a split would be enough even if the win comes at UCLA. Maybe they’ll enjoy the initial Crown Invitational in Vegas with a couple other friends from the B1G, Big East and Big 12.
– Boise State and TCU are both creeping closer to the cut line. TCU put themselves in position with a win at home against Texas Tech; getting a win at Cincinnati this weekend would also be a step in the right direction. Boise State now has 3 wins against the field (Clemson, Saint Mary’s and New Mexico) and will have one more opportunity with Utah State visiting the Broncos. Still, they’ll need a win or two in the Mountain West Tournament to demonstrate that they can win away from home.
– For a few weeks, we’ve had Cleveland State as the Horizon League champion, but now I feel that Morris Robert, ERRRR, Robert Morris may now be the team to beat in the league. RMU only trails CSU by a half-game and is on a roll since their wardrobe malfunction earlier this season.
– I initially forgot to mention this Friday, but I would initially have had BYU as my last #10 seed and Oklahoma as my top #11 seed. Both teams were swapped to ensure BYU didn’t get placed in a Sunday region.
STAFF COMMENTS:
From Chad:
– Kentucky is such a hard team to place right now. Their five wins (3 away from home) against top 10 NET teams could make the a 3 seed, but their 7-6 conference record and 8 overall losses also gives them a case for the 5 or 6 line where John has them. I would personally have them higher, but I see the argument for a 5 seed as well.
– Vanderbilt and West Virginia on the 9 line both seem a bit high to me. I would have them a lot closer to the First Four. Vandy does not have a win away from home against the field and played an AWFUL non-conference schedule. West Virginia has the high quality wins, but 10 overall losses is a lot right now, and they are only 7-8 in Big 12 play.
– Baylor I feel is under-seeded on the 10 line. The Bears are healthy again and, while they have a lot of losses, all but one of them are Tier 1A.
– I would not have Oklahoma in right now. The Sooners have lost 5 in a row and are below .500 against the top three tiers. They now also have a BAD loss, the home home game they completely blew against LSU last weekend. They may need to be booking their tickets to the Crown, but do have time to right the ship as they were my top team out. (Note from Stalica – The Crown is limited to the B1G, Big East and Big 12 this year. The SEC and ACC will still be part of the 2025 NIT – the top two teams from each conference not invited to the NCAA Tournament will be invited to the NIT, but they are not compelled to participate.)
– Georgia also does not belong in. They are 8-10 against the top three tiers and have only one true road win — at Georgia Tech.
– Pitt does not even belong in the NIT or the CBI. I can name a dozen teams not in John’s field that I like better than them. Not only do I not have the Panthers in my field, I don’t even have them on my Board for teams Under Consideration. Did you typo and mean someone else here John? That Panthers are not good.
– Drake should be a few seed lines higher. The metrics are solid for this team, and I really think the Committee will give them a 9 or 10 seed if they keep winning. If they can at least win out the regular season (including a huge game at Northern Iowa on Sunday), I don’t even think they will need the automatic bid.
– I would have two A-10 teams in right now. I would also still have two Big West teams in DESPITE UC-Irvine’s loss last night. The Anteaters would be my very last team in, but as long as they do not lose again until the Big West Tournament final (which they are very capable of doing), I still believe in the two bid Big West, especially given that the rest of the Bubble teams are almost guaranteed to keep losing games.
– All in all, John did a great job in my opinion, and most of my arguments are with him are around the bubble.
From David Griggs:
-Vanderbilt on the 9 line is higher than I would have them. I just don’t think they’ve done enough away from home to be seeded as good as that. Having said that, if I were guessing the actual committee and not doing my own bracket, my guess is that’s where the real committee would have them.
-Kansas on the 6 line may seem low, but I’d actually have them lower. I’d probably place them behind Louisville and Clemson right now. Perhaps even Memphis. Kansas has not won a true road game against anyone that’s in this field.
-BYU is getting a lot of love. Not just from Stalica, but from most people who follow and do bracketology. I think they have some nice wins at home and…well…I think they have some nice wins at home. A weak OOC schedule and a shoddy road record would have me leaving the Cougars out.